• Title/Summary/Keyword: stationary climate

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Development of daily spatio-temporal downscaling model with conditional Copula based bias-correction of GloSea5 monthly ensemble forecasts (조건부 Copula 함수 기반의 월단위 GloSea5 앙상블 예측정보 편의보정 기법과 연계한 일단위 시공간적 상세화 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Yong-Tak;Kim, Min Ji;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1317-1328
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to provide a predictive model based on climate models for simulating continuous daily rainfall sequences by combining bias-correction and spatio-temporal downscaling approaches. For these purposes, this study proposes a combined modeling system by applying conditional Copula and Multisite Non-stationary Hidden Markov Model (MNHMM). The GloSea5 system releases the monthly rainfall prediction on the same day every week, however, there are noticeable differences in the updated prediction. It was confirmed that the monthly rainfall forecasts are effectively updated with the use of the Copula-based bias-correction approach. More specifically, the proposed bias-correction approach was validated for the period from 1991 to 2010 under the LOOCV scheme. Several rainfall statistics, such as rainfall amounts, consecutive rainfall frequency, consecutive zero rainfall frequency, and wet days, are well reproduced, which is expected to be highly effective as input data of the hydrological model. The difference in spatial coherence between the observed and simulated rainfall sequences over the entire weather stations was estimated in the range of -0.02~0.10, and the interdependence between rainfall stations in the watershed was effectively reproduced. Therefore, it is expected that the hydrological response of the watershed will be more realistically simulated when used as input data for the hydrological model.

A Nonstationary Frequency Analysis of Extreme Wind Speed in Jeju using Bayesian Approach (베이지안 기법을 이용한 제주지역 극치풍속의 비정상성 빈도해석)

  • Kim, Kyoungmin;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kwon, Soon-Duck
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.667-673
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    • 2019
  • Global warming may accelerate climate change and may increase disaster caused by strong winds. This research studied a method for a nonstationary frequency analysis considering the linear trend over time. The Bayesian method was used to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters for the extreme value distribution of the annual maximum wind speed at Jeju Airport. The nonstationary frequency analysis was performed based on the Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulation and the Gibbs sampling. The estimated wind speeds by nonstationary frequency analysis was larger than those by stationary analysis. The conventional frequency analysis procedure assuming stationarity is likely to underestimate the future design wind speed in the region where statistically significant trend exists.

Web-Based Data Processing and Model Linkage Techniques for Agricultural Water-Resource Analysis (농촌유역 물순환 해석을 위한 웹기반 자료 전처리 및 모형 연계 기법 개발)

  • Park, Jihoon;Kang, Moon Seong;Song, Jung-Hun;Jun, Sang Min;Kim, Kyeung;Ryu, Jeong Hoon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.57 no.5
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    • pp.101-111
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    • 2015
  • Establishment of appropriate data in certain formats is essential for agricultural water cycle analysis, which involves complex interactions and uncertainties such as climate change, social & economic change, and watershed environmental change. The main objective of this study was to develop web-based Data processing and Model linkage Techniques for Agricultural Water-Resource analysis (AWR-DMT). The developed techniques consisted of database development, data processing technique, and model linkage technique. The watershed of this study was the upper Cheongmi stream and Geunsam-Ri. The database was constructed using MS SQL with data code, watershed characteristics, reservoir information, weather station information, meteorological data, processed data, hydrological data, and paddy field information. The AWR-DMT was developed using Python. Processing technique generated probable rainfall data using non-stationary frequency analysis and evapotranspiration data. Model linkage technique built input data for agricultural watershed models, such as the TANK and Agricultural Watershed Supply (AWS). This study might be considered to contribute to the development of intelligent watercycle analysis by developing data processing and model linkage techniques for agricultural water-resource analysis.

A comparison analysis on probable precipitation considering extreme rainfall in Seoul (서울시 폭우특성을 고려한 근미래 확률강우량 산정 및 비교평가)

  • Yoon, Sun Kwon;Choi, Hyeon Seok;Lee, Tae Sam;Jeong, Min Su
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.17-17
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    • 2019
  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 기후변화 전망보고서에 따르면 RCP 4.5 시나리오 기준, 21세기 전 지구 평균기온은 $2.5^{\circ}C$ 상승(한반도 $+3.0^{\circ}C$)하며, 전 지구 평균강수량은 4.1% 증가(한반도 +16.0%)할 것이라 전망하고 있다(기상청, 2012). 최근 기후변화와 기상이변에 따른 도심지 폭우특성이 변화하고 있음을 많은 연구결과에서 말해주고 있으며, 그 발생 빈도와 강도가 점차 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 특히, 서울시의 경우 인구와 재산이 밀집해 있어 폭우 발생에 의한 시민의 인명과 재산 피해 우려가 크다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 서울시를 대상으로 근미래(~2050년) 기후변화 하에서의 재현기간에 따른 확률강우량 변화 특성을 분석하여 비교 평가한 후 설계 강우량 산정에 활용하고자 하였다. 관측자료 기반 강수량의 변동 특성 분석과 Non-stationary GEV방법을 이용한 비정상성 빈도해석을 수행하였으며, 근미래 폭우특성 변화분석을 위하여 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5)에 참여한 GCMs(General Circulation Models)을 활용한 강우빈도해석을 수행하였다. Mann-Kendall Test와 Quantile Regression을 통한 서울지점 여름철 강수량(June to September)과 기준강수량 초과 강수(30, 50, 80, 100mm/hr), 연간 10th 최대 강수량(Annual Top 10th Precipitation) 등을 분석한 결과 최근 증가 경향이 뚜렷하게 나타났으며, 비정상성 빈도해석에 의한 확률강우량 분석의 가능성과 신뢰성을 확인하였다. 또한 19-GCMs을 통하여 모의된 일(Daily) 단위 강수량자료를 비모수통계적 상세화(Nonparametric Temporal Downscaling) 기법을 적용하여 시간(Hourly) 강우로 다운스케일링하였으며, 서울시 미래 확률강우량에 대한 IDF 곡선(Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curve)을 작성하여 비교?분석한 결과 지속시간 1시간 강우에 대하여 재현기간 30년, 100년 조건에서 확률강우량이 약 4%~11% 수준에서 증가하고 있음을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 도심지 수공구조물의 설계빈도 영향을 진단하고, 근미래 발생가능한 확률강우량 변화에 따른 시간당 목표 강우량설정의 방법론을 제시하였다는데 의의가 있으며, 서울시의 방재성능목표 설정과 침수취약지역 해소를 위한 기후변화에 따른 수공구조물 설계 시 활용이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

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Design and Implementation of Prototype model of Vehicle speed automatic variable control System (차량속도 자동화 가변 시스템의 프로트 타입 모델 설계 및 구현)

  • Choi, Sung-Jai
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2019
  • In the worldwide, The issue comes up which is the danger of car accidents from climate-change effects. We are considering about various types of speed limit signs for setting restricts to high-speed vehicles. South Korea has 4 seasons in the land. At Summer or Winter seasons have heavy rains and fogs or snow, In these seasons need to enforce speed limit laws or methods to prevent car collision. But South korea is using stationary speed limiters that is not enough to proof against rear-end car accidents in these climates. In this paper shows the necessity of independent LED speed limits display to reduce car accidents. And explaining the prototype model which is a combination of rain sensor and wiper systems. This model is independently changed the speed limits to 50%, 80%, 100% of standards by raindrops and snowflake. Also it is freely setting speed limits on each places anywhere it settled in. Visual effects of the model as being speed-down of vehicles helps to prevent rear-ending car accidents and traffic beforehand.

The Wave Power Generator on Small Ship for Charging Engine Start-Up Battery (엔진 시동용 소형선 탑재형 파력 발전 시스템)

  • Kisoo, Ryu;Sungjin, Kang;Byeongseok, Yu
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.59 no.6
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    • pp.439-446
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    • 2022
  • Efforts to reduce carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions are being carried out due to climate environmental problems. Eco-friendly ships are also being developed, and various energy saving measures have been developed and applied. In ships, researches have been conducted in various fields such as electric propulsion system and energy saving devices. In addition, the development of ships using various renewable energy, such as kite using wind power and wind power generation, has been carried out. This paper proposes a plan to use renewable energy for ships by applying wave generators to small ships. In 2016, 130 small domestic ships drifted by sea due to discharge of starting storage batteries, and discharge cases accounted for the largest portion of the causes of domestic ship accidents. This is due to the excessive use of storage batteries for starting the main engine by departing in a weak storage battery state for small ships. Accordingly, two type wave power generators - opened flow wave power generator and enclosed vibrator type wave power generator - are developed for charging a starting storage battery when the ships are stationary at sea or port. Opened flow wave power generator utilizes the flow of fluid in the ship by using wave induced ship motion. Enclosed vibrator type wave power generator utilizes the pendulum kinetic energy located in a ship due to wave induced ship motion.

Application of Machine Learning Algorithm and Remote-sensed Data to Estimate Forest Gross Primary Production at Multi-sites Level (산림 총일차생산량 예측의 공간적 확장을 위한 인공위성 자료와 기계학습 알고리즘의 활용)

  • Lee, Bora;Kim, Eunsook;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kang, Minseok;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.6_2
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    • pp.1117-1132
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    • 2019
  • Forest covers 30% of the Earth's land area and plays an important role in global carbon flux through its ability to store much greater amounts of carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems. The Gross Primary Production (GPP) represents the productivity of forest ecosystems according to climate change and its effect on the phenology, health, and carbon cycle. In this study, we estimated the daily GPP for a forest ecosystem using remote-sensed data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and machine learning algorithms Support Vector Machine (SVM). MODIS products were employed to train the SVM model from 75% to 80% data of the total study period and validated using eddy covariance measurement (EC) data at the six flux tower sites. We also compare the GPP derived from EC and MODIS (MYD17). The MODIS products made use of two data sets: one for Processed MODIS that included calculated by combined products (e.g., Vapor Pressure Deficit), another one for Unprocessed MODIS that used MODIS products without any combined calculation. Statistical analyses, including Pearson correlation coefficient (R), mean squared error (MSE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the outcomes of the model. In general, the SVM model trained by the Unprocessed MODIS (R = 0.77 - 0.94, p < 0.001) derived from the multi-sites outperformed those trained at a single-site (R = 0.75 - 0.95, p < 0.001). These results show better performance trained by the data including various events and suggest the possibility of using remote-sensed data without complex processes to estimate GPP such as non-stationary ecological processes.

Mutual Adjustment of Oceanographic Measurements from leodo Station and Satellite Data (원격탐사자료와 이어도기지 해양관측자료를 이용한 상호 보정)

  • Kim Chang-Oh;Shim Jae-Seol;Hwang Jong-Sun;Lee Jae-Hak;Kim Soodung;Kim Jeong Woo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.113-120
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    • 2005
  • Oceanographic measurements from Ieodo Ocean Research Station and its vicinity were compared for assessment and mutually adjusted with satellite data. From the Topex/Poseidon and ERS-1/2 radar altimeter and scatterometer data, sea surface height, wind speed and direction were extracted and analyzed. Shipborne wind direction data acquired in June 1995 show good coherence with the satellite data, while sea surface height and wind speed show differences, possibly resulting from the distance between the measurement points. This can be improved by analyzing more satellite data or using other available shipborne data. The recent 3 months of Ieodo Station data between December 2004 and February 2005 were also analyzed and compared with the satellite data. The Ieodo Station data were found to have considerable gaps during the period as well as seriously biased particular when the data were averaged with some abnormal data. The Ieodo Station and satellite data were then mutually adjusted on the basis of their statistics. Ieodo Station oceanographic measurements are very efficient for ground-frothing of satellite data because they are stationary and the station is located far from the coast. On the other hand, the satellite measurements are the only data to fill up gaps and adjust biases of the Ieodo Station data.

The Trend of Regional Geography in Germany in the 1920s and 1930s ($1920{\sim}1930$년대(年代) 독일(獨逸) 지지학(地誌學)의 연구(硏究) 동향(動向))

  • Kim, Jae-Wan
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.69-89
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    • 2000
  • The regional geography had been at the height of prosperity in the first half of the twentieth century since Alexander von Humboldt and Carl Ritter. The geography remained stationary in the late 19th century had greatly developed around the regional geography in European countries since the early 20th century. Particularly, A. Hettner and O. $Schl{\ddot{u}}ter$ in Germany, Vidal de la Blache in France and A. J. Herbertson in Britain developed their own methods of regional studies and produced many results of empirical studies ; accordingly the regional geography had been at the height of prosperity in the 1920s and 1930s. This paper aims to study the regional concepts and the methods of regional studies of Germany geographers in the 1920s and 1930s. This study is useful to understand the current methods of classifications of regions and descripitive systems of regions. The noteworthy results of studies are summarized as follows : First, The regional geography of Germany had been developed by Hettner who regarded the geography as the chorological science of the earth's surface, $Schl{\ddot{u}}ter$ who did the geography as the study of cultural landscape and Penck's students, the morphologists of landscape (Landschaftsmorphologie). Hettner defined the geography as the chorological science, maintained that the earth's surface was classify according to its localized difference -continents, lands, districts and localities(Erdteile, $L{\ddot{a}}nder$, Landschaften und Ortlichkeiten) and emphasized on the total character of areas. He tried to classify downward from continents to localities based on the sizes of regions. He also gave the logic of causal relation to schematic approach(Das $L{\ddot{a}}nderkundliche$ Schema) and further developed it. $Schl{\ddot{u}}ter$ argued that The process of change on the landscape through time must be studied. And Passarge and Penck's pupils, morphologists of landscape, tried to classify the landscape synthetically. Thereafter, De Geer and $Gran{\ddot{o}}$ employed the creative methods of regional classification which used signs and simbols. Second, The regional geography of Germany differed from that of France on the next points ; 1. The former was analytic, but the latter was synthetic. 2. The former placed great emphasis on physical elements, terrain and climate etc., but the latter did great emphasis on both physical and human elements. 3. The former gave priority to the studies of large scale regions, but the latter did priority to the studies of small scale regions. In 1920s and 1930s the regional study of Germany geographers exerted direct influence on the development of geography of Japan. Especially, Tanaka Keiji, Japanese typical regional geographer, tried to classify Japan synthetically on the bases of terrain, climate, vegetation and human elements under the influence of European geographers. He exerted great influence on both Japanese and Korean geographers at that time.

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Phytoplankton Diversity and Community Structure Driven by the Dynamics of the Changjiang Diluted Water Plume Extension around the Ieodo Ocean Research Station in the Summer of 2020 (2020년 하계 장강 저염수가 이어도 해양과학기지 주변 해역의 식물플랑크톤 다양성 및 개체수 변화에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Jihoon;Choi, Dong Han;Lee, Ha Eun;Jeong, Jin-Yong;Jeong, Jongmin;Noh, Jae Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.27 no.7
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    • pp.924-942
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    • 2021
  • The expansion of the Changjiang Diluted Water (CDW) plume during summer is known to be a major factor influencing phytoplankton diversity, community structure, and the regional marine environment of the northern East China Sea (ECS). The discharge of the CDW plume was very high in the summer of 2020, and cruise surveys and stationary monitoring were conducted to understand the dynamics of changes in environmental characteristics and the impact on phytoplankton diversity and community structure. A cruise survey was conducted from August 16 to 17, 2020, using R/V Eardo, and a stay survey at the Ieodo Ocean Research Station (IORS) from August 15 to 21, 2020, to analyze phytoplankton diversity and community structure. The southwestern part of the survey area exhibited low salinity and high chlorophyll a fluorescence under the influence of the CDW plume, whereas the southeastern part of the survey area presented high salinity and low chlorophyll a fluorescence under the influence of the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC). The total chlorophyll a concentrations of surface water samples from 12 sampling stations indicated that nano-phytoplankton (20-3 ㎛) and micro-phytoplankton (> 20 ㎛) were the dominant groups during the survey period. Only stations strongly influenced by the TWC presented approximately 50% of the biomass contributed by pico-phytoplankton (< 3 ㎛). The size distribution of phytoplankton in the surface water samples is related to nutrient supplies, and areas where high nutrient (nitrate) supplies were provided by the CDW plume displayed higher biomass contribution by micro-phytoplankton groups. A total of 45 genera of nano- and micro-phytoplankton groups were classified using morphological analysis. Among them, the dominant taxa were the diatoms Guinardia flaccida and Nitzschia spp. and the dinoflagellates Gonyaulax monacantha, Noctiluca scintillans, Gymnodinium spirale, Heterocapsa spp., Prorocentrum micans, and Tripos furca. The sampling stations affected by the TWC and low in nitrate concentrations presented high concentrations of photosynthetic pico-eukaryotes (PPE) and photosynthetic pico-prokaryotes (PPP). Most sampling stations had phosphate-limited conditions. Higher Synechococcus concentrations were enumerated for the sampling stations influenced by low-nutrient water of the TWC using flow cytometry. The NGS analysis revealed 29 clades of Synechococcus among PPP, and 11 clades displayed a dominance rate of 1% or more at least once in one sample. Clade II was the dominant group in the surface water, whereas various clades (Clades I, IV, etc.) were found to be the next dominant groups in the SCM layers. The Prochlorococcus group, belonging to the PPP, observed in the warm water region, presented a high-light-adapted ecotype and did not appear in the northern part of the survey region. PPE analysis resulted in 163 operational taxonomic units (OTUs), indicating very high diversity. Among them, 11 major taxa showed dominant OTUs with more than 5% in at least one sample, while Amphidinium testudo was the dominant taxon in the surface water in the low-salinity region affected by the CDW plume, and the chlorophyta was dominant in the SCM layer. In the warm water region affected by the TWC, various groups of haptophytes were dominant. Observations from the IORS also presented similar results to the cruise survey results for biomass, size distribution, and diversity of phytoplankton. The results revealed the various dynamic responses of phytoplankton influenced by the CDW plume. By comparing the results from the IORS and research cruise studies, the study confirmed that the IORS is an important observational station to monitor the dynamic impact of the CDW plume. In future research, it is necessary to establish an effective use of IORS in preparation for changes in the ECS summer environment and ecosystem due to climate change.