• 제목/요약/키워드: static risk factor

검색결과 22건 처리시간 0.024초

교정시설내 성범죄자 재범위험성 평가도구의 재범 예측: STATIC-99와 HAGSOR-동적요인을 중심으로 (Recidivism prediction of sex offender risk assessment tools: STATIC-99 and HAGSOR-Dynamic)

  • 윤정숙
    • 한국심리학회지:법
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.99-119
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    • 2022
  • 성범죄자의 재범 우려가 큰 가운데 특정 성범죄자들은 다른 성범죄자들에 비해 재범하는 경향이 더 높은 것으로 알려져 있다. 이에, 연구자들은 성범죄자의 재범을 예측하는 요인들을 규명하기 위해 노력해왔다. 본 연구에서는 현재 교정시설에서 사용하는 STATIC-99(정적 위험 요인 평가)와 HAGSOR-동적요인을 사용하여, 각 도구의 재범 예측력을 분석하였다. 분석 결과 STATIC-99와 HAGSOR-동적요인은 통계적으로 유의한 재범 예측력을 가진 것으로 나타났다(각각 AUC = .737, AUC = .597, ps < .001). 그러나 성범죄 재범에 대해서는 STATIC-99만 통계적으로 유의한 예측력을 보였다(AUC = .743, p < .001). 또한 HAGSOR-동적요인을 추가한 Model의 재범 예측에 대한 설명력은 STATIC-99만을 투입한 Model보다 통계적으로 유의한 수준에서 증가하는 것으로 나타나(∆χ2 = 12.721, p < .001), HAGSOR-동적요인의 증분적 재범 예측력이 확인되었다. 그러나 성범죄에 대한 증분적 재범 예측력은 확인되지 못하였다. 재범 위험성 평가 항목 중 정적 위험요인은 친족피해자를 제외한 모든 항목이 재범을 유의하게 예측하였으며, 동적 위험요인 중 범죄적 성격, 대인관계 공격성, 사회적지지(부족)이 재범에 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 결과에 대한 함의와 현장에서 도구의 사용 문제, 개선 방향 등이 추가로 논의되었다.

Dynamic risk assessment of water inrush in tunnelling and software development

  • Li, L.P.;Lei, T.;Li, S.C.;Xu, Z.H.;Xue, Y.G.;Shi, S.S.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.57-81
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    • 2015
  • Water inrush and mud outburst always restricts the tunnel constructions in mountain area, which becomes a major geological barrier against the development of underground engineering. In view of the complex disaster-causing mechanism and difficult quantitative predictions of water inrush and mud outburst, several theoretical methods are adopted to realize dynamic assessment of water inrush in the progressive process of tunnel construction. Concerning both the geological condition and construction situation, eleven risk factors are quantitatively described and an assessment system is developed to evaluate the water inrush risk. In the static assessment, the weights of eight risk factors about the geological condition are determined using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Each factor is scored by experts and the synthesis scores are weighted. The risk level is ultimately determined based on the scoring outcome which is derived from the sum of products of weights and comprehensive scores. In the secondary assessment, the eight risk factors in static assessment and three factors about construction situation are quantitatively analyzed using fuzzy evaluation method. Subordinate levels and weight of factors are prepared and then used to calculate the comprehensive subordinate degree and risk level. In the dynamic assessment, the classical field of the eleven risk factors is normalized by using the extension evaluation method. From the input of the matter-element, weights of risk factors are determined and correlation analysis is carried out to determine the risk level. This system has been applied to the dynamic assessment of water inrush during construction of the Yuanliangshan tunnel of Yuhuai Railway. The assessment results are consistent with the actual excavation, which verifies the rationality and feasibility of the software. The developed system is believed capable to be back-up and applied for risk assessment of water inrush in the underground engineering construction.

서서 일하는 작업에서의 정맥류 발생에 대한 연구 (A Study of Varicose Veins in Prolonged Standing at Work)

  • 이윤근;임상혁
    • 한국산업보건학회지
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.139-146
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    • 2010
  • Recent studies suggest that prolonged standing at work is associated with varicose veins (VV). The objective of this study was to analyze the differences of VV risk in terms of work types in casino dealers and hotel service workers. Symptoms of VV were evaluated using a self-reported questionnaire from 2,092 participants, and muscle fatigue in the lower legs were evaluated using surface electromyography. The shift rate of median frequency in Gastrocnemius was -30.0% among the casino dealers working in prolonged static standing posture, and - 14.3% among the casino dealers sitting during working time. After adjusting age, gender, smoking, and family history of VV, the risk ratio of VV was 3.67(95% CI 2.03-6.59) in group I (prolonged standing and occasional walking at work), 6.29(95% CI 3.48-11.35) in group II (prolonged standing, occasional walking and heavy lifting at work), and 8.07(95% CI 4.51-14.43) in groupIII(prolonged static standing at work). In conclusion, prolonged standing at work may be a work related risk factor of VV.

어깨 및 팔 동작 부하 측정을 위한 관찰적 기법 비교 (Comparison of Six Observational Methods for Assessing Arm- and Hand-intensive Tasks)

  • 기도형
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to compare six observational methods for assessing arm- and hand-intensive tasks, based on literature review. The comparison was conducted in viewpoints of body regions, force/external load, motion repetition, other factors including static posture, coupling, duration/break, pace, temperature, precision task, and final risk or exposure level. The number of risk factors assessed was more, and assessment procedure was more complex than the observational methods for assessing whole-body postural loads such as Ovako Working Posture Analysis System(OWAS), Rapid Upper Limb Assessment(RULA), and Rapid Entire Body Assessment(REBA). Due to these, the intra- and inter-reliabilities were not high. A past study showed that while Hand Arm Risk Assessment Method(HARM) identified the smallest proportion of the work tasks as high risk, Strain Index(SI) and Quick Exposure Check(QEC) hand/wrist were the most rigorous with classifying most work tasks as high risk. This study showed that depending on the observational technique compared, the evaluation factors, risk or exposure level, and evaluation results were different, making it necessary to select a technique appropriate for the characteristics of the work being assessed.

인화성 액체 도전율에 관한 측정 및 비교(IEC 60079-32-2) 연구 (A Study on the Measurement and Comparison(IEC 60079-32-2) of Flammable Liquid Conductivity)

  • 이동훈;변정환
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제34권4호
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    • pp.22-31
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    • 2019
  • The flammable liquid conductivity is an important factor in determining the generation of electrostatic in fire and explosion hazardous areas, so it is necessary to study the physical properties of flammable liquids. In particular, the relevant liquid conductivity in the process of handling flammable liquids in relation to the risk assessment and risk control in fire and explosion hazard areas, such as chemical plants, is classified as a main evaluation item according to the IEC standard, and it is necessary to have flammable liquid conductivity measuring devices and related data are required depending on the handling conditions of the material, such as temperature and mixing ratio for preventing the fire and explosion related to electrostatic. In addition, IEC 60079-32-2 [Explosive Atmospheres-Part 32-2 (Electrostatic hazards-Tests)] refers to the measuring device standard and the conductivity of a single substance. It was concluded that there is no measurement data according to the handling conditions such as mixing ratio of flammable liquid and temperature together with the use and measurement examples. We have developed the measurement reliability by improving the structure, material and measurement method of measuring device by referring to the IEC standard. We have developed a measurement device that is developed and manufactured by itself. The test results of flammable liquid conductivity measurement and the data of the NFPA 77 (Recommended Practice on Static Electricity) Annex B Table B.2 Static Electric Characteristic of Liquids were compared and verified by conducting the conductivity measurement of the flammable liquid handled in the fire and explosion hazardous place by using Measuring / Data Acquisition / Processing / PC Communication. It will contribute to the prevention of static electricity related disaster by taking preliminary measures for fire and explosion prevention by providing technical guidance for static electricity risk assessment and risk control through flammable liquid conductivity measurement experiment. In addition, based on the experimental results, it is possible to create a big data base by constructing electrostatic physical characteristic data of flammable liquids by process and material. Also, it is analyzed that it will contribute to the foundation composition for adding the specific information of conductivity of flammable liquid to the physical and chemical characteristics of MSDS.

일부 대학 실험실 연구자들의 근골격계질환 위험 요인과 증상 (Ergonomic Risk Factors and Musculoskeletal Symptoms among University Laboratory Researchers)

  • 이윤근;이익모;박정임;윤충식;이광원;박희석
    • 한국산업보건학회지
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.307-314
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of symptoms relating to musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) and investigate the risk factors among researchers at university laboratories. Methods: 209 researchers were included in this study, drawn from 27 laboratories at three universities in Korea. Checklists for MSD symptoms and risk factor assessment were utilized. Results: The symptoms checklist showed reliable results with Cohen's Kappa 0.33-0.56, percent agreement 81.0-96.8%, and correlation coefficient 0.41-0.63. The overall prevalence of MSD symptoms was 68.9%, while the prevalence in specific parts of body were as follows: shoulders (47.6%), lower back (46.9%), neck (46.9%), knees (25.4%), wrists (20.1%), elbows (13.6%). The symptom prevalence among women was higher than among men (OR 2.67, 95% CI 1.37-5.18). Daily exposure time was observed to be a significant risk factor for developing MSD symptoms (OR 2.14-6.07). Conclusions: This study suggested that repetitive pipetting and static work posture are the most significant risk factors for MSD symptoms among laboratory researchers.

도시공간정보 기반의 범죄발생 확률 모형 및 위험도 확률지도 생성 (A Probability Modeling of the Crime Occurrence and Risk Probability Map Generation based on the Urban Spatial Information)

  • 김동현;박구락
    • 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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    • 제14권10호
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    • pp.207-215
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    • 2009
  • 최근 도시화 율이 증가됨에 따라 발생되는 도시의 범죄 예방을 위하여 컴퓨터정보기술과 GIS 기술을 이용한 범죄 공간의 분석에 대한 연구가 활발하게 이루어지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 정적인 환경에서 도시공간정보에 포함된 지역특성을 이용하여 단위 셀별 우범 위험도를 계량화하여 래스터 형태의 확률 지도를 구성하였다. 지형적 특성에 의한 상대적 위험도, 시설물에 의한 상대적 위험도, 수목이나 하천에 의한 위험도 등을 기본으로 하여 위험도 확률 지도를 구축한다. 이를 통합한 위험도 확률 지도를 구할 때는 각각의 단위 위험도에 기후나 계절적 요인에 의해 가중치를 적용한 후 평균하게 된다. 또한 일회성 분석이 아닌 범죄 발생 상대적 위험지수의 패턴을 판독키로 하여 전체 위험도의 확률 지도를 생성하여 이후 발생하는 범죄의 유형을 계량화하는 확률지도에 추가적으로 적용하어 정적인 정보가 아닌 시간의 흐름에 따라 범죄 위험도 확률지도가 달라질 수 있는 모델과 시뮬레이션 하는 방법론을 제안하였다.

FORM 신뢰성 기반 항타강관말뚝 저항계수 산정 (FORM Reliability-based Resistance Factors for Driven Steel Pipe Piles)

  • 박재현;허정원;이주형;정문경;곽기석
    • 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지반공학회 2008년도 추계 학술발표회
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    • pp.779-783
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    • 2008
  • LRFD Resistance factors for static bearing capacity of driven steel pipe piles were calibrated in the freamework of reliability theory. Reliability analysis was performed by the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) using resistance bias factor statistics.The target reliability indices are selected as 2.0 and 2.33 for group pile case and 2.5 for single pile case, based on the reliability level of the current design practice and considering redundancy of pile group, acceptable risk level, construction quality control, and significance of individual structure.

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UWB 기반 측위시스템을 이용한 연안자망어선 어선원의 작업위치와 위험요소 (Risk factors and fisher positioning task during coastal gillnet fishing boat operation using UWB based positioning system)

  • 류경진;김수형;이경훈;김성훈;원성재;이유원
    • 수산해양기술연구
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    • 제60권2호
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    • pp.152-160
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    • 2024
  • We analyzed risk factors of coastal gillnet fishers during fishing process and considered work safety measures to reduce safety accidents during fishing using a UWB (ultra wideband) based positioning system. The static position accuracy of the UWB based positioning system was 45 cm. When entering a port, there is a risk of falling overboard. When casting a net, there was a risk of falling overboard due to being hit by fishing gear or guards, or getting caught in a buoy line or sinker line. When hauling a net, there is a risk of getting caught between fishing gear and net hauler, and the risk of musculoskeletal disorders due to repetitive work over a long period of time. Most safety accidents during work on fishing boats are blamed on human errors of the fisher and skipper, but safety accidents occur due to a mixture of mechanical and equipment factors, work and environmental factors, and management factors in addition to human errors. Therefore, the 4E were presented as countermeasures against the 4M, which are causes of safety accidents, and the proposed measures were used to identify risk factors for operation process, comply with work safety rules, and ensure the wearing of personal protective equipments. We need to reduce safety accidents during work by making it part of our daily routine. These research results can be used in the future for optimal placement of fishing gear and fishing nets in other coastal industries where safety accidents occur frequently.

국내 항타강관말뚝 설계법의 목표 신뢰도지수 (Target Reliability Indices of Static Design Methods for Driven Steel Pipe Piles in Korea)

  • 곽기석;허정원;김경준;박재현;이주형
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제28권1C호
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2008
  • 국내 기초구조물에 대한 하중저항계수설계법 개발의 일환으로 항타강관말뚝에 대한 신뢰성 수준을 평가하고 목표 신뢰도지수를 결정하였다. 국내 정재하시험 및 지반조사 자료를 수집하여 말뚝의 대표 측정 극한지지력을 결정하였고, 정역학적 지지력공식과 Meyerhof 경험식을 이용하여 설계 극한지지력을 산정하였다. 이들 자료의 비교 분석을 통해 저항편향계수를 산정하였다. 저항편향계수의 통계 특성을 이용하여 일차신뢰도법 및 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션에 의한 신뢰성 분석을 실시하였다. 정역학적 지지력공식은 자료의 변동성이 낮았고 Meyerhof 경험식은 내재적 보수성이 크게 나타났다. 안전율 3.0~5.0에 대한 신뢰도지수 분석 결과 정역학적 지지력공식은 1.50~2.89, Meyerhof 경험식은 1.61~2.72로 평가되었다. 신뢰성 분석 결과를 바탕으로 목표 신뢰도지수는 무리말뚝으로 시공되는 경우 2.0, 2.33을, 무리말뚝으로 시공되지 않는 경우 2.5의 값을 결정하였다.