• Title/Summary/Keyword: static risk factor

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Recidivism prediction of sex offender risk assessment tools: STATIC-99 and HAGSOR-Dynamic (교정시설내 성범죄자 재범위험성 평가도구의 재범 예측: STATIC-99와 HAGSOR-동적요인을 중심으로)

  • Yoon, Jeongsook
    • Korean Journal of Forensic Psychology
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.99-119
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    • 2022
  • Research on sex offense has shown that sex offenders are very heterogeneous. Sex offenders are heterogeneous in their probability of risk of recidivism. Some sex offenders are known to be much higher in their tendencies to reactivate than others. The study examined the predictive and explanatory power of static and dynamic risk factors in STATIC-99 and HAGSOR-Dynamic which have been used in Korean correctional facilities since 2014. STATIC-99 and HAGSOR-Dynamic showed moderate predictive accuracy for all crimes(AUC = .737, AUC = .597, respectively, ps < .001). However, when examining sex crime alone, only STATIC-99 predicted recidivism significantly(AUC = .743, p < .001). The incremental predictive power of HAGSOR-Dynamic was confirmed; the explanatory power of Model 2 comprising both static and dynamic risk factors were significant beyond Model 1 comprising only static factors(∆χ2= 12.721, p < .001), but this tendency was only applied to the model of all crimes. These findings were discussed with implications of practicing the sex offender assessment and treatment.

Dynamic risk assessment of water inrush in tunnelling and software development

  • Li, L.P.;Lei, T.;Li, S.C.;Xu, Z.H.;Xue, Y.G.;Shi, S.S.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.57-81
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    • 2015
  • Water inrush and mud outburst always restricts the tunnel constructions in mountain area, which becomes a major geological barrier against the development of underground engineering. In view of the complex disaster-causing mechanism and difficult quantitative predictions of water inrush and mud outburst, several theoretical methods are adopted to realize dynamic assessment of water inrush in the progressive process of tunnel construction. Concerning both the geological condition and construction situation, eleven risk factors are quantitatively described and an assessment system is developed to evaluate the water inrush risk. In the static assessment, the weights of eight risk factors about the geological condition are determined using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Each factor is scored by experts and the synthesis scores are weighted. The risk level is ultimately determined based on the scoring outcome which is derived from the sum of products of weights and comprehensive scores. In the secondary assessment, the eight risk factors in static assessment and three factors about construction situation are quantitatively analyzed using fuzzy evaluation method. Subordinate levels and weight of factors are prepared and then used to calculate the comprehensive subordinate degree and risk level. In the dynamic assessment, the classical field of the eleven risk factors is normalized by using the extension evaluation method. From the input of the matter-element, weights of risk factors are determined and correlation analysis is carried out to determine the risk level. This system has been applied to the dynamic assessment of water inrush during construction of the Yuanliangshan tunnel of Yuhuai Railway. The assessment results are consistent with the actual excavation, which verifies the rationality and feasibility of the software. The developed system is believed capable to be back-up and applied for risk assessment of water inrush in the underground engineering construction.

A Study of Varicose Veins in Prolonged Standing at Work (서서 일하는 작업에서의 정맥류 발생에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Yun-Keun;Yim, Sang-Hyuk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.139-146
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    • 2010
  • Recent studies suggest that prolonged standing at work is associated with varicose veins (VV). The objective of this study was to analyze the differences of VV risk in terms of work types in casino dealers and hotel service workers. Symptoms of VV were evaluated using a self-reported questionnaire from 2,092 participants, and muscle fatigue in the lower legs were evaluated using surface electromyography. The shift rate of median frequency in Gastrocnemius was -30.0% among the casino dealers working in prolonged static standing posture, and - 14.3% among the casino dealers sitting during working time. After adjusting age, gender, smoking, and family history of VV, the risk ratio of VV was 3.67(95% CI 2.03-6.59) in group I (prolonged standing and occasional walking at work), 6.29(95% CI 3.48-11.35) in group II (prolonged standing, occasional walking and heavy lifting at work), and 8.07(95% CI 4.51-14.43) in groupIII(prolonged static standing at work). In conclusion, prolonged standing at work may be a work related risk factor of VV.

Comparison of Six Observational Methods for Assessing Arm- and Hand-intensive Tasks (어깨 및 팔 동작 부하 측정을 위한 관찰적 기법 비교)

  • Dohyung Kee
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to compare six observational methods for assessing arm- and hand-intensive tasks, based on literature review. The comparison was conducted in viewpoints of body regions, force/external load, motion repetition, other factors including static posture, coupling, duration/break, pace, temperature, precision task, and final risk or exposure level. The number of risk factors assessed was more, and assessment procedure was more complex than the observational methods for assessing whole-body postural loads such as Ovako Working Posture Analysis System(OWAS), Rapid Upper Limb Assessment(RULA), and Rapid Entire Body Assessment(REBA). Due to these, the intra- and inter-reliabilities were not high. A past study showed that while Hand Arm Risk Assessment Method(HARM) identified the smallest proportion of the work tasks as high risk, Strain Index(SI) and Quick Exposure Check(QEC) hand/wrist were the most rigorous with classifying most work tasks as high risk. This study showed that depending on the observational technique compared, the evaluation factors, risk or exposure level, and evaluation results were different, making it necessary to select a technique appropriate for the characteristics of the work being assessed.

A Study on the Measurement and Comparison(IEC 60079-32-2) of Flammable Liquid Conductivity (인화성 액체 도전율에 관한 측정 및 비교(IEC 60079-32-2) 연구)

  • Lee, Dong Hoon;Byeon, Junghwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.22-31
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    • 2019
  • The flammable liquid conductivity is an important factor in determining the generation of electrostatic in fire and explosion hazardous areas, so it is necessary to study the physical properties of flammable liquids. In particular, the relevant liquid conductivity in the process of handling flammable liquids in relation to the risk assessment and risk control in fire and explosion hazard areas, such as chemical plants, is classified as a main evaluation item according to the IEC standard, and it is necessary to have flammable liquid conductivity measuring devices and related data are required depending on the handling conditions of the material, such as temperature and mixing ratio for preventing the fire and explosion related to electrostatic. In addition, IEC 60079-32-2 [Explosive Atmospheres-Part 32-2 (Electrostatic hazards-Tests)] refers to the measuring device standard and the conductivity of a single substance. It was concluded that there is no measurement data according to the handling conditions such as mixing ratio of flammable liquid and temperature together with the use and measurement examples. We have developed the measurement reliability by improving the structure, material and measurement method of measuring device by referring to the IEC standard. We have developed a measurement device that is developed and manufactured by itself. The test results of flammable liquid conductivity measurement and the data of the NFPA 77 (Recommended Practice on Static Electricity) Annex B Table B.2 Static Electric Characteristic of Liquids were compared and verified by conducting the conductivity measurement of the flammable liquid handled in the fire and explosion hazardous place by using Measuring / Data Acquisition / Processing / PC Communication. It will contribute to the prevention of static electricity related disaster by taking preliminary measures for fire and explosion prevention by providing technical guidance for static electricity risk assessment and risk control through flammable liquid conductivity measurement experiment. In addition, based on the experimental results, it is possible to create a big data base by constructing electrostatic physical characteristic data of flammable liquids by process and material. Also, it is analyzed that it will contribute to the foundation composition for adding the specific information of conductivity of flammable liquid to the physical and chemical characteristics of MSDS.

Ergonomic Risk Factors and Musculoskeletal Symptoms among University Laboratory Researchers (일부 대학 실험실 연구자들의 근골격계질환 위험 요인과 증상)

  • Lee, Yun Keun;Lee, Ik Mo;Park, Jeong Im;Yoon, Chung Sik;Rhie, Kwang Won;Park, Hee Sok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.307-314
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of symptoms relating to musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) and investigate the risk factors among researchers at university laboratories. Methods: 209 researchers were included in this study, drawn from 27 laboratories at three universities in Korea. Checklists for MSD symptoms and risk factor assessment were utilized. Results: The symptoms checklist showed reliable results with Cohen's Kappa 0.33-0.56, percent agreement 81.0-96.8%, and correlation coefficient 0.41-0.63. The overall prevalence of MSD symptoms was 68.9%, while the prevalence in specific parts of body were as follows: shoulders (47.6%), lower back (46.9%), neck (46.9%), knees (25.4%), wrists (20.1%), elbows (13.6%). The symptom prevalence among women was higher than among men (OR 2.67, 95% CI 1.37-5.18). Daily exposure time was observed to be a significant risk factor for developing MSD symptoms (OR 2.14-6.07). Conclusions: This study suggested that repetitive pipetting and static work posture are the most significant risk factors for MSD symptoms among laboratory researchers.

A Probability Modeling of the Crime Occurrence and Risk Probability Map Generation based on the Urban Spatial Information (도시공간정보 기반의 범죄발생 확률 모형 및 위험도 확률지도 생성)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyun;Park, Koo-Rack
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.207-215
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    • 2009
  • Recently, the research of the analysis of the crime spatial is increased by using the computer information technology and GIS (Geometric Information System) in order to prevent the urban crime so as to increase the urbanization rate. In this paper, a probability map formed by the raster is organized by the quantification of crime risk per the cell using the region property of the urban spatial information in the static environment. Also, a map of the risk probability is constructed based on the relative risk by the region property, the relative risk by the facility, the relative risk by the woody plant and the river, and so on. And, this integrated risk probability map is calculated by averaging the individual cell risk applied to the climatic influence and the seasonal factor. And, a probability map of the overall risk is generated by the interpretation key of the crime occurrence relative risk index, and so, this information is applied to the probability map quantifying the occurrence crime pattern. And so, in this paper, a methodology of the modeling and the simulation that this crime risk probability map is modified according to the passage of time are proposed.

FORM Reliability-based Resistance Factors for Driven Steel Pipe Piles (FORM 신뢰성 기반 항타강관말뚝 저항계수 산정)

  • Park, Jae-Hyun;Huh, Jung-Won;Lee, Ju-Hyung;Chung, Moon-Kyung;Kwak, Ki-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.779-783
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    • 2008
  • LRFD Resistance factors for static bearing capacity of driven steel pipe piles were calibrated in the freamework of reliability theory. Reliability analysis was performed by the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) using resistance bias factor statistics.The target reliability indices are selected as 2.0 and 2.33 for group pile case and 2.5 for single pile case, based on the reliability level of the current design practice and considering redundancy of pile group, acceptable risk level, construction quality control, and significance of individual structure.

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Risk factors and fisher positioning task during coastal gillnet fishing boat operation using UWB based positioning system (UWB 기반 측위시스템을 이용한 연안자망어선 어선원의 작업위치와 위험요소)

  • Kyung-Jin RYU;Su-Hyung KIM;Kyunghun LEE;Sunghun KIM;Sung-Jae WON;Yoo-Won LEE
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.60 no.2
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    • pp.152-160
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    • 2024
  • We analyzed risk factors of coastal gillnet fishers during fishing process and considered work safety measures to reduce safety accidents during fishing using a UWB (ultra wideband) based positioning system. The static position accuracy of the UWB based positioning system was 45 cm. When entering a port, there is a risk of falling overboard. When casting a net, there was a risk of falling overboard due to being hit by fishing gear or guards, or getting caught in a buoy line or sinker line. When hauling a net, there is a risk of getting caught between fishing gear and net hauler, and the risk of musculoskeletal disorders due to repetitive work over a long period of time. Most safety accidents during work on fishing boats are blamed on human errors of the fisher and skipper, but safety accidents occur due to a mixture of mechanical and equipment factors, work and environmental factors, and management factors in addition to human errors. Therefore, the 4E were presented as countermeasures against the 4M, which are causes of safety accidents, and the proposed measures were used to identify risk factors for operation process, comply with work safety rules, and ensure the wearing of personal protective equipments. We need to reduce safety accidents during work by making it part of our daily routine. These research results can be used in the future for optimal placement of fishing gear and fishing nets in other coastal industries where safety accidents occur frequently.

Target Reliability Indices of Static Design Methods for Driven Steel Pipe Piles in Korea (국내 항타강관말뚝 설계법의 목표 신뢰도지수)

  • Kwak, Kiseok;Huh, Jungwon;Kim, Kyung Jun;Park, Jae Hyun;Lee, Juhyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.1C
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2008
  • As a part of study to develop LRFD (Load and Resistance Factor Design) codes for foundation structures in Korea, reliability analyses for driven steel pipe piles are performed and the target reliability indices are selected carefully. The 58 data sets of static load tests and soil property tests conducted in the whole domestic area were collected and analyzed to determine the representative bearing capacities of the piles. The static bearing capacity formula and the Meyerhof method using N values are applied to calculate the expected design bearing capacity of the piles. The resistance bias factors were evaluated for the two static design methods by comparing the representative bearing capacities with the design values. Reliability analysis was performed by two types of advanced methods: First Order Reliability Method (FORM), and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method using resistance bias factor statistics. The static bearing capacity formula exhibited relatively small variation, whereas the Meyerhof method showed relatively high inherent conservatism in the resistance bias factors. Reliability indices for safety factors in the range of 3 to 5 were evaluated respectively as 1.50~2.89 and 1.61~2.72 for both of the static bearing capacity formula and the Meyerhof method. The target reliability indices are selected as 2.0 and 2.33 for group pile case and 2.5 for single pile case, based on the reliability level of the current design practice and considering redundancy of pile group, acceptable risk level, construction quality control, and significance of individual structure.