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Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

Feed Value and Yield Potential of Main Whole-Crop Silage Rice Cultivars with Harvesting Time in the Central Plains of Korea (중부 평야지에서 사료용 벼 주요품종의 수확시기 별 사료가치 및 수량성)

  • Ahn, Eok-Keun;Won, Yong-Jae;Park, Hyang-Mi;Jung, Kuk-Hyun;Hyun, Ung-Jo
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.63 no.4
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    • pp.294-303
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    • 2018
  • To set an optimal harvest time for five main whole-crop silage (WCS) rice cultivars, Nokyang (Ny), Mogwoo (Mw), Mogyang (My), Nokwoo (Nw) and Yeongwoo(Yw), based on feed value and dry matter yield, we analyzed water content (WC), feed values such as percent crude protein (CP), crude fat (CF), crude ash (CA), neutral detergent fiber (NDF), acid detergent fiber (ADF), estimated total digestible nutrients (TDN), and calculated their dry matter yield (DMY). These parameters were estimated at the booting stage and every 10 days from start of heading to 45 days after heading (DAH) to identify the optimal harvest time for these rice varieties. In all varieties, except Ny, the WC was about 65% on the $30^{th}$ DAH. In terms of WC, it is judged that there would be no major problem in preparing high quality silage when harvested between 20~30 DAH for Ny and about 30 days for the other cultivars. The CP and CA decreased significantly as the harvest time was delayed in all varieties (p<0.05). However, the CF in the tested varieties generally declined as DAH increased, and then increased again(p<0.05). The decrease in ADF and NDF was significantly different from the booting stage to 45 DAH in all varieties (p<0.05) and the estimated TDN increased gradually in all varieties as the harvest time was delayed. The TDN of all varieties, except Nw, was over 70% around 30 DAH. As harvest time was delayed, the DMY for all WCS rice increased significantly (p<0.05). The maximum DMY for each cultivar was observed at 45 DAH, however, no significant difference (p<0.05) was seen after 40 DAH for Ny and Yw, 30 DAH for Mw and Nw, and 20 DAH for My. Considering these results and others factors such as lodging, shattering, digestibility of grains, conversion of eating rice, etc., the optimal harvest time for silage use of all WCS rice tested was generally the yellow ripening stage, at about 30 DAH (30~40 DAH for Ny and Mw, and 30 DAH for My, Nw and Yw).

The Effects of Different Type of Triglyceride Supplements on Exercise Performance Time, Energy Substrates, Insulin Hormone and Lipase Activity in the Trained Rats (서로 다른 형태의 지방산 투여가 훈련된 흰쥐의 지구성 운동수행력, 안정시기와 운동스트레스 시기의 에너지 기질, Insulin 호르몬과 Lipase 활성에 미치는 영향)

  • Kwak, Yi-Sub
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.17 no.3 s.83
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    • pp.368-374
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of different type of triglycerides (MCT & LCT) on weight, survival time, energy substrate (FFA, TG, pyruvate, lactate), insulin and lipase in the trained rats. Fifty-four Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into 3 groups: control group (CG, n=18), MCT supplement group (MG, n=18), and LCT supplement group (LG, n=18). They also were divided into 3 periods: trained resting (R, n=6) and trained & exercise load (E, n=6), and survival time test was performed to know the supplemented effects. Body weight of all animals was checked every week, MCT group and LCT group received supplementary MCT and LCT orally and preliminary swimming training for 6 days before the start of main experiment. All animals received 15-minute swimming training 5 times during first week of experiment, and swimming training time was increased 15 minutes every week until it reached 90 minutes at last 9th week. After last swimming training, animals were fasted for 12 hours and blood samples were taken from abdominal aorta in the Department of Animal Medicine at the D university Animal Center. Among the CGE, MGE, and LGE groups, the MGE had the greatest increase in physical performance time. In the FFA levels, there was significant differences(p<.05) in CG, MG and LG groups, and also there was major difference of FFA levels in the MG and LG. In the lipase levels, there was signifi.ant differences (p<.05) in CG, MG and LG groups. MG was the greatest than the other groups. In the insulin hormone levels, there was the great differences (p<.05) in LG compare to CG groups, whereas there was no significant difference in the CG and MG. In conclusion, these results suggest that regular prolonged physical training with MCT supplementation, improves exercise performance time through the increase of energy substrate utilization, lipase activity and FFA levels, irrespective of insulin hormone responses.

LOCA Analysis and Development of a Simple Computer Code for Refill-Phase Analysis (냉각재 상실사고 분석 및 재충진 단계해석용 전산코드 개발)

  • Ree, Hee-Do;Park, Goon-Cherl;Kim, Hyo-Jung;Kim, Jin-Soo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.200-208
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    • 1986
  • The loss of coolant accident based on a double-ended cold leg break is analyzed with the discharge coefficient (Ca) of 0.4. This analysis covers the whole transient period from the start of depressurization to the complete refilling of the core by using RELAP4/MOD6-EM and RELAP4/ MOD6-HOT CHANNEL for the system thermal-hydraulics and the fuel performance during the blowdown phase respectively, and RELAP4/MOD6-FLOOD and TOODEE2 during the reflood phase. A simple analytical method has been developed to account for the lower plenum filling by approximating steam-water countercurrent flows and superheated wall effects at the downcomer during the refill period. Based on the informations. at the time of EOB (end-of-bypass), the refill duration time and the initial reflooding temperature were estimated and compared with the results from the RELAP4/MOD6, resulting in a good agreement. In addition, some parametric studies on the EOB were performed. The form loss coefficient between upper head and upper downcomer was found to be sensitive to the occurrence of the spurious EOB. Appropriate form loss coefficients should be taken into account to avoid the flow oscillations at the downcomer. The analyses with the six and three volume core nodalizations, respectively, show much similar trends in the system thermal-hydraulic performance, but the former case is recommended to obtain good results.

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A Study on the Deterioration Process of 22kV Power Cables in Operation (운전 중인 상태에 있는 22kV 전송선로 케이블의 열화 과정해석에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kwan-Woo;Um, Kee-Hong
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.127-133
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    • 2013
  • As an essential part of current industrial society, electric power energy is contantaly increasing in pace with the development of science and technology. In order to meet the demand of electric power, power facilities which take care of the higher voltage and bigger capacity is required. To produce and supply electric power on a sound basis the electric facilities should operate with reliability. To prevent disasters in advance, the high quality facilities should be manufactured, and a constant management should be done. When the power facilities cause accidents, the result is huge national deficits. Since the power facilities play a pivotal role in the key industry of national infrastructures of they should operate for a long time in maintaining a stable state, and the accidents can be prevented in advance. The lifetime of a power cable is considered to be 30 years at the time of manufacture, but in real fields, accidents of cable occur 8-12 years from the start of operation, resulting in a heavy loss of properties. In this paper, we will show that we have found out the cause and process of the deterioration of 22kV cable systems in operation. The result is that the process of deterioration does not follow the Weibull distribution only ; but rather, after the heat deterioration the Weibull distributed deterioration comes, then the cable is destroyed due to the partial discharge resulting from the Weibull distributed deterioration.

An Analysis of Factors on College Students' Entrepreneurial Intentions: Focused on the Motivation and Intended Startup Time (대학생의 창업의지에 미치는 영향요인에 관한 연구: 창업동기 및 창업계획시기를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jong-woon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 2014
  • This paper aims to identify determinants of entrepreneurial intentions among college students of a university in Daejeon. We have used a revised Entrepreneurial Intention Questionnaire including personal traits, demographic characteristics, the three factors of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), motivations to startup and planned startup time, and entrepreneurial intentions. The analysis shows that there are strongly significant and positive relationships between the three TPB factors and entrepreneurial intentions of college students. In addition, students' motivations to create a firm such as independence and self-achievement have a positive and significant effect on their entrepreneurial intentions, while the students who want to start their business right after their graduation have significantly higher entrepreneurial intentions than those who want to create a firm after doing a salaried job. Furthermore, students whose parents have created or operated a firm have no significant difference from others, and parents' startup business type are significantly different from their sons and daughters' interested areas of business.

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Evaluation of various cephalometric measurements to predict the prognosis of early Class III malocclusion treatment (III급 부정교합의 조기 치료 예후 예측를 위한 두부방사선 계측 변수의 평가)

  • Son, Myung-Ho;Chang, Young-Il
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.34 no.3 s.104
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    • pp.205-218
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    • 2004
  • The aims of this study were to investigate the differences in the early craniofacial morphology of Class III malocclusions with good, fair and poor occlusal stability and to elucidate a key determinant for distinguishing the cases. Lateral cephalograms of 30 subjects with Class III malocclusion in the mixed dentition were analyzed at the start of treatment (mean age of $8.58\pm1.47$). All subjects were reevaluated after a mean period of $7.50\pm1.94$ years comprising active treatment and retention. At this time, the samples were divided into three groups: good (10 subjects), fair (10 subjects) and poor (10 subjects) occlusal stability groups. According to the results of ANOVA, there were significant morphological differences in the early stage among the good, fair and poor occlusat stability groups, especially in variables that represented the vertical skeletal relationships. As well, there were already more dental compensations in the poor occlusal stability group. Stepwise discriminant analysis on the measurements at the time of first observation identified only one predictive variable: AB to mandibular plane angle(AB-MP). With this discriminant function, $83.3\%$of the original grouped cases were correctly classified and the canonical correlation coefficient was 0.857. In conclusion, AB-MP can be a possible predictor for the eventual prognosis of early Class III treatment. If it is below 60, the prognosis of early Class III treatment is expected to be poor, while if it is above 65, a good prognosis is expected.

IPTV Service Provider over FTTH (광가입자망을 통한 IPTV 서비스 제공)

  • Park In-Gyu
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.43 no.5 s.347
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2006
  • IPTV is referred to the service which provide integrated IPTV services for providing video, 10/100-Mbit/sec Internet, voice, video-on-demand (VOD), and other broadband applications including home security, video conferencing, and telemedicine. All services are integrated into an IP (Internet Protocol) architecture designed specifically for Gigabit Ethernet FTTH systems, HFC or xDLC. It is absolutely necessary that telecon operators provide IP video delivery platforms that enable service providers to transform their business. With their own products, they can better manage their existing services and generate new revenues from broadcast TV, movies on demand and multimedia. Triple-play is a combination of broadcast, telephony and broadband services offered through IPTV networks. With cable operators allowed to offer a triple-play bundle, the nation's telecom operators are beginning to get a little anxious. Cable operators assert that triple-play is a must-have and natural extension of the cable service bundle. The Korean Cable TV Association asserts that the triple-play model is of paramount importance to the cable industry's future growth. But the telecom sector considers itself unfairly disadvantaged, saying they cannot compete until regulatory issues are resolved. The start of web-based television in Korea may still be some time off with a confrontation between the nation's IT regulator and broadcasting sector over the service's legal boundaries shows no signs of being resolved my time soon. korea should be is the fastest-growing provider of IPTV solutions in the industry, with over worldwide customers.

Study on the Installation warrants of staggered crosswalk traffic island on Urban Streets - Focusing on pedestrian safety and service level - (도시부가로 이단 횡단보도 교통섬 설치 준거에 관한 연구 - 보행자 안전과 서비스수준을 중심으로 -)

  • Shim, Kwan-Bo;Kim, Joong-Hyo;Park, Kyung-Woo;Ha, Dong-Ik
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.97-107
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    • 2013
  • On the Staggered Crosswalks, pedestrians cross the crosswalks two times. This method can reduce the cycle, the vehicle delay and the walking distance by increasing the major direction of green time. The safety of pedestrians is also effective. This study suggests the warrant of the facilities of island width and length etc. by considering the road structure and pedestrians. Also this study suggests the standard of the safety through the accident analysis of Staggered crosswalks and General Crosswalks. In the results, accident rate of the Staggered Crosswalks 18.3(100 million vehicle-km) was lower than the accident rate of the General Crosswalks 28.3(100million vehicle-km). By understanding the start point of crossing of the Staggered Crosswalks, the analysis of the location and types of accident suggests the safety zone(spare space). The setting warrants of Staggered Crosswalks are 4 lane over the road and the 2 meter over sidewalk width of island. The minimum length of the Pedestrian island was doubled compared to the crosswalks width. And the maximum length was set by considering the wait time of the pedestrians.

Palliative Care for Patients with Gynecologic Cancer in Japan: A Japan Society of Gynecologic Palliative Medicine (JSGPM) Survey

  • Futagami, Masayuki;Yokoyama, Yoshihito;Sato, Tetsumi;Hirota, Kazuyoshi;Shimada, Muneaki;Miyagi, Etsuko;Suzuki, Nao;Fujimura, Masaki
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.4637-4642
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: To evaluate palliative care for patients with gynecologic cancer in Japan. Materials and Method: A questionnaire asking facility characteristics, systems to coordinate palliative care, current status of end-of-life care, provision of symptom relief, palliative radiation therapy and chemotherapy, and cases of death from gynecological cancer, was mailed to facilities treating gynecologic cancer. Results: A total of 115 facilities (29.3% of the total) responded to the questionnaire. Of these, 33.0 (29.0%) had a palliative care ward. End-of-life care was managed by obstetricians and gynecologists in 72.0% of the facilities. The site where end-of-life care was provided was most often a ward in the department where the respondent worked. The waiting period for transfer to a hospice was 2 weeks or more in 52% of facilities. Before the start of primary treatment, pain control was managed by obstetrians and gynecologists in 98.0% of facilities. Palliative radiation therapy or chemotherapy was administered at 93.9% and 92.0% of facilities, respectively. Of the 115 facilities, 34.0 (29.6%) reported cases of death from gynecological cancer. There were 1,134 cases of death. The median time between the last cycle of chemotherapy and death was 85 days for all gynecological cancers. The proportion of patients receiving chemotherapy in the last 30 and 14 days of life were 17.4% and 7.1%, respectively. Conclusions: This large-scale survey showed characteristics of palliative care given to patients with gynecologic cancer in Japan. Assessment of death cases showed that the median time between the last cycle of chemotherapy and death was relatively short.