• Title/Summary/Keyword: standard of estimate

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Epicenter Estimation Using Real-Time Event Packet of Quanterra digitizer (Quanterra 기록계의 실시간 이벤트 패킷을 이용한 진앙 추정)

  • Lim, In-Seub;Sheen, Dong-Hoon;Shin, Jin-Soo;Jung, Soon-Key
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.316-327
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    • 2009
  • A standard for national seismological observatory was proposed on 1999. Since then, Quanterra digitizer has been installed and is operating on almost all of seismic stations which belong to major seismic monitoring organizations. Quanterra digitizer produce and transmit real-time event packet and data packet. Characteristics of event packet and arrival time of each channel's data packet on data center were investigated. Packet selection criteria using signal to noise ratio (hereafter SNR) and signal period from real-time event packet based on 100 samples per second (hereafter sps) velocity data were developed. Estimation of epicenter using time information of the selected event packet were performed and tested. A series of experiment show that event packets were received approximately 3~4 second earlier than data packets and the number of event packet was only 0.3% compare to data packets. Just about 5% against all of event packets were selected as event packet were related P wave of real earthquake. Using the selected event packets we can estimate an epicenter with misfit less than 10 km within 20 sec for local earthquake over magnitude 2.5.

Estimation on the Distribution Function for Coastal Air Temperature Data in Korean Coasts (한반도 연안 기온자료의 분포함수 추정)

  • Jeong, Shin Taek;Cho, Hongyeon;Ko, Dong Hui;Hwang, Jae Dong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.278-284
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    • 2014
  • Water temperature due to climate change can be estimated using the air temperature because the air and water temperatures are closely related and the water temperatures have been widely used as the indicators of the environmental and ecological changes. It is highly necessary to estimate the frequency distribution of the air and water temperatures, for the climate change derives the change of the coastal water temperatures. In this study, the distribution function of the air temperatures is estimated by using the long-term coastal air temperature data sets in Korea. The candidate distribution function is the bi-modal distribution function used in the previous studies, such as Cho et al.(2003) on tidal elevation data and Jeong et al.(2013) on the coastal water temperature data. The parameters of the function are optimally estimated based on the least square method. It shows that the optimal parameters are highly correlated to the basic statistical informations, such as mean, standard deviation, and skewness coefficient. The RMS error of the parameter estimation using statistical information ranges is about 5 %. In addition, the bimodal distribution fits good to the overall frequency pattern of the air temperature. However, it can be regarded as the limitations that the distribution shows some mismatch with the rapid decreasing pattern in the high-temperature region and the some small peaks.

Prediction of Wind Damage Risk based on Estimation of Probability Distribution of Daily Maximum Wind Speed (일 최대풍속의 추정확률분포에 의한 농작물 강풍 피해 위험도 판정 방법)

  • Kim, Soo-ock
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.130-139
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    • 2017
  • The crop damage caused by strong wind was predicted using the wind speed data available from Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). Wind speed data measured at 19 automatic weather stations in 2012 were compared with wind data available from the KMA's digital forecast. Linear regression equations were derived using the maximum value of wind speed measurements for the three-hour period prior to a given hour and the digital forecasts at the three-hour interval. Estimates of daily maximum wind speed were obtained from the regression equation finding the greatest value among the maximum wind speed at the three-hour interval. The estimation error for the daily maximum wind speed was expressed using normal distribution and Weibull distribution probability density function. The daily maximum wind speed was compared with the critical wind speed that could cause crop damage to determine the level of stages for wind damage, e.g., "watch" or "warning." Spatial interpolation of the regression coefficient for the maximum wind speed, the standard deviation of the estimation error at the automated weather stations, the parameters of Weibull distribution was performed. These interpolated values at the four synoptic weather stations including Suncheon, Namwon, Imsil, and Jangsu were used to estimate the daily maximum wind speed in 2012. The wind damage risk was determined using the critical wind speed of 10m/s under the assumption that the fruit of a pear variety Mansamgil would begin to drop at 10 m/s. The results indicated that the Weibull distribution was more effective than the normal distribution for the estimation error probability distribution for assessing wind damage risk.

The Application of a Simplified Pullout Test for High-Strength Concrete (고강도 콘크리트에 대한 간이 인발시험법 적용)

  • Ko, Hune-Bum;Jeon, Doo-Jin;Lee, Min-Jae
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.49-55
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    • 2017
  • In the seventies, a number of researchers carried out experiments on pullout tests with prototype equipment, and the pullout test was certified as a reliable nondestructive testing(NDT) method for determining the strength of concrete. To estimate the strength of high-strength concrete, we propose a simplified pullout test that uses as a break-off bolt a standard 10mm bolt with a groove on the shaft, an insert nut, and a pullout instrument that includes a hydraulic oil pump without a load cell. To verify the advantages of the simplified pullout test(low cost, simplicity, and convenience), four wall specimens were tested with two levels of concrete strength, 30 MPa and 50 MPa, using a simplified pullout tester with a load cell. The pullout load and concrete compressive strength were measured every day until day 7, day 14, day 21 and day 28. It was found that the pullout load was very similar to the compressive strength. Therefore, we have verified that a simplified pullout test can be used to evaluate the in-place strength of high-strength concrete in structures. The prediction equation of the groove diameter of the break-off bolt(y) with the concrete strength(x) was derived as y=0.05x+3.79, with a coefficient of determination of 0.88 found through regression analysis.

Methodology on the Safety Goal Setting of Reactor Operation based on the Radiogenic Excess Cancer Risk in Korea (한국인의 초과 방사선 암 위험도 평가에 근거한 국내원전의 안전목표치 설정 방법론)

  • Chang, Si-Young;Chung, Woon-Kwan
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.131-142
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    • 1999
  • By using the Korean demographic data and the modified relative risk projection model given in the Committee on the Biological Effect of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) report-V under the U.S. National Academy of Science, the radiogenic excess risk in Korean population has been evaluated. On the basis of this risk, a safety goal for the safe operation of domestic nuclear power plants has been further derived in terms of personal dose. The baseline risk of death due to all causes in Korea and the trivial risk level, which the society considers safe, were estimated to be $5.2{\times}10^{-3}$ and $5.2{\times}10^{-6}$, respectively. The radiogenic excess cancer risk in Korea has been estimated to be $5.2{\times}10^{-3}$ for tie case of acute exposure to 0.1 Gy and $3.7{\times}10^{-3}$ for the case of chronic lifetime exposure to 1.0 mGy/y. On the basis of these risks estimate, the resulting safety goal for one year opeation of a reactor was 0.05 mSv, which is quite identical with the ALARA guideline prescribed by the USNRC in the Appendix I, 10CFR50.

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Construction of a Simple Bi-trophic Microcosm System Using Standard Test Species (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata and Daphnia magna) for Testing Chemical Toxicities (화학물질에 대한 독성시험 bi-trophic microcosm 구축에 있어 표준시험생물 녹조류 (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata)와 물벼룩 (Daphnia magna)의 개체군 특성 연구)

  • Sakamoto, Masaki;Mano, Hiroyuki;Hanazato, Takayuki;Chang, Kwang-Hyeon
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.228-235
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    • 2016
  • Aquatic ecosystems are receiving various harmful effects due to anthropogenic chemical pollutions. To protect wildlife, risk assessments of the chemicals are conducted using reference indexes of toxicity estimated by species-level laboratory tests and/or micro-/mesocosm community-level studies. However, the existing micro-/mesocosm communities are structurally too complicated, and it is also difficult to compare the experimental results directly with those from species-level tests. Here, we developed a procedure of a simple bi-trophic microcosm experiment which contains the common species (a green algae, Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata and a cladoceran, Daphnia magna) for testing chemical toxicities. For the proper operation of bitrophic microcosm experiment, the minimum required concentration of primary producer (P. subcapitata) is $5{\times}10^5cells\;mL^{-1}$. The microcosm system showed higher stability when the initially introduced D. magna population was composed of neonates (<24-h old) than adults and those mixture. This simple microcosm system would be an applicable tool to estimate the disturbing impacts of pollutants on plant-herbivore interactions, and linking the species- and population-/community level risk assessments in the future studies.

Thermal Stability and Critical Ignition Temperature of RPF (RPF의 열적 안정성과 한계발화온도)

  • Lim, Woo-Sub;Choi, Jae-Wook
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.99-104
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    • 2008
  • It is important to understand thermal characteristic as a method to estimate the new materials, because spontaneous ignition characterized by causing combustion in the low temperature without ignition source. If can not find out the thermal characteristics of materials, it is frequent that causes of fires could not be found. The danger level of spontaneous ignition material should be estimated and by closely studying its thermal characteristic. However, RPF(Refuse Paper & Plastic Fuel) is a solid matter and getting increasesa year by year because it is an economy profit as alternative energy for limited fossil fuels. Some time RPF occur a fire in the cases of its production process and conservation. Therefore study for thermal stability and critical ignition temperature of RPF was so imperative that the experiment by means of Bombe Calorimeter, TG-DTA, MS80, SIT-II, and Wire Basket Test was implemented. As a result, RPF had a caloric value 26.4-28.3 MJ/kg, and its initial pyrolysis temperature was $192^{\circ}C$ at heating rate 2 K/min. With the result of analysis by MS 80 which is an instrument measuring microscopic calory, pure RPF not containing water has higher caloric value than RPF containing 20% water. Also, SIT-II which is an instrument of insulated auto-ignition was ignited by $118.5^{\circ}C$. This temperature is lower than that of Wire Basket Test. The critical ignition temperature was calculated by Frank-Kamenetskii equation can cause ignition at $80^{\circ}C$ when conserved in the height of 10 m by the standard of infinity slab.

A Proposal of Durability Prediction Models and Development of Effective Tunnel Maintenance Method Through Field Application (내구성 예측식의 제안 및 현장적용을 통한 효율적인 터널 유지관리 기법의 개발)

  • Cho, Sung Woo;Lee, Chang Soo
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.148-160
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    • 2012
  • This study proposed more reasonable prediction models on compressive strength and carbonation of concrete structure and developed a more effective tunnel safety diagnosis and maintenance method through field application of the proposed prediction models. For this study, the Seoul Metro's Line 1 through Line 4 were selected as target structures because they were built more than 30 years ago and have accumulated numerous diagnosis and maintenance data for about 15 years. As a result of the analysis of compressive strength and carbonation, we were able to draw prediction models with accuracy of more than 80% and confirmed the prediction model's reliability by comparing it with the existing models. We've also confirmed field suitability of the prediction models by applying field, the average error of an estimate on compressive strength and carbonation depth was about 20%, which showed an accuracy of more than 80%. We developed a more effective maintenance method using durability prediction Map before field inspection. With the durability prediction Map, diagnostic engineers and structure managers can easily detect the vulnerable points, which might have failed to reach the standard of designed strength or have a high probability of corrosion due to carbonation, therefore, it is expected to make it possible for them to diagnose and maintain tunnels more effectively and efficiently.

Estimation of Longitudinal Dynamic Stability Derivatives for a Tailless Aircraft Using Dynamic Mesh Method (Dynamic Mesh 기법을 활용한 무미익 비행체 종축 동안정 미계수 예측)

  • Chung, Hyoung-Seog;Yang, Kwang-Jin;Kwon, Ky-Beom;Lee, Ho-Keun;Kim, Sun-Tae;Lee, Myung-Sup;Reu, Taekyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.232-242
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    • 2015
  • For stealth performance consideration, many UAV designs are adopting tailless lambda-shaped configurations which are likely to have unsteady dynamic characteristics. In order to control such UAVs through automatic flight control system, more accurate estimation of dynamic stability derivatives becomes essential. In this paper, dynamic stability derivatives of a tailless lambda-shaped UAV are estimated through numerically simulated forced oscillation method incorporating dynamic mesh technique. First, the methodology is validated by benchmarking the CFD results against previously published experimental results of the Standard Dynamics Model(SDM). The dependency of initial angle of attack, oscillation frequency and oscillation magnitude on the dynamic stability derivatives of a tailless UAV configuration is then studied. The results show reasonable agreements with experimental reference data and prove the validity and efficiency of the concept of using CFD to estimate the dynamic derivatives.

Environmental Improvement Effect and Social Benefit of Environmental Impact Assessment: Focusing on Thermal Power Plant (환경영향평가를 통한 화력발전소의 환경개선 효과와 사회적 편익)

  • Kang, Eugene;Kim, Yumi;Moon, Nankyoung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.322-333
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    • 2018
  • This study was carried out to measure atmospheric environmental improvement effect and estimate its social benefit of thermal power plants through Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for quantitative analysis about operational performances of EIA. In this study, 'EIA outcome' is defined as whether or not the system is implemented, therefore, environmental standard to be followed by each project and consultation contents were compared. In total 60 cases of thermal power plant construction projects that have been consulted over the past 10 years since 2010, major air pollutants have been significantly reduced after the implementation of EIA. The $PM_{10}$ reduced annual 3,745 tons, $NO_2$ by 74,569 tons, and $SO_2$ by 37,647 tons, which were estimated at approximately 240 billion won~5 trillion 967 billion won per year for social benefit. This means the total cost of power plant operations will be cut to 7 trillion 192 billion won~178 trillion 994 billion won over a 30-year period. The reduced amount of air pollutants emitted by energy generation facilities across the country is worth 50%, and its economic value is larger than the annual Current Health Expenditure in Korea. This is meant by the fact that all projects are subject to uniform criteria under the existing relevant regulation, but that each project plans are optimized according to the characteristics of target areas and projects through the process of EIA.