• Title/Summary/Keyword: standard estimating

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Estimation of Forest Productivity for Post-Wild-fire Restoration in East Coastal Areas (동해안 산불피해지 복구를 위한 산림생산력의 추정)

  • Koo, Kyo-Sang;Lee, Myung-Jong;Shin, Man-Yong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.36-44
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    • 2010
  • In order to rehabilitate forest sites damaged by wildfire via natural or artificial restoration, it is important to determine right tree species, which can acclimate to biogeoclimatic environment at the sites. The objectives of this study were to develop site index equation of different tree species for estimating forest productivity and to provide information on species selection for post-wildfire restoration. Site index equation was developed based on environmental information from wildfire damaged areas in Gangneung, Goseong, Donghae, and Samcheok, where were located in east coastal areas of South Korea. Despite the small numbers (4~5) of environmental variables used for the development of the site index equations, statistical analysis (e.g. mean difference, standard deviation of difference, and standard error of difference) showed relatively low bias and variation, suggesting that those equations can provide relatively high capability of estimation and practical applicability with high effectiveness. The small numbers of the variables enabled the model to be applied in a wide range of usages including determination of appropriate tree species for post-wildfire restoration. The estimation of forest site productivity showed the possibility of large distribution in east coastal region as the best site for Korean ash (Fraxinus rhynchophylla) and original oak (Quercus variabilis) that can be used for firebreak in the region. These results imply that damages by forest fire can be reduced significantly by replacing existing pure coniferous forests in the area with ones dominated by broad-leaved deciduous stands, which can play an important role as fire break and/or prevent a transition from surface fire to crown fire.

Determination of Appropriate Sampling Frequency and Time of Multiple Blood Sampling Dual Exponential Method with $^{99m}Tc$-DTPA for Calculating GFR (사구체여과율 계산을 위한 $^{99m}Tc$-DTPA를 이용한 다중 채혈 이중지수법의 적정 채혈 횟수 및 시간의 선정)

  • Kim, Chung-Ho;O, Joo-Hyun;Chung, Yong-An;Yoo, Ie-Ryung;Sohn, Hyung-Sun;Kim, Sung-Hoon;Chung, Soo-Kyo;Lee, Hyoung-Koo
    • Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2006
  • Purpose: To determine appropriate sampling frequency and time of multiple blood sampling dual exponential method with $^{99m}Tc$-DTPA for calculating glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Materials & Methods: Thirty four patients were included in this study. Three mCi of $^{99m}Tc$-DTPA was intravenously injected and blood sampling at 9 different times, 5ml each, were done. Using the radioactivity of serum, measured by gamma counter, the GFR was calculated using dual exponential method and corrected with the body surface area. Using spontaneously chosen 2 data points of serum radioactivity, 15 collections of 2-sample GFR were calculated. And 10 collections of 3-sample GFR and 12 collections of 4-sample GFR were also calculated. Using the 9-sample GFR as a reference value, degree of agreement was analyzed with Kendall's $\tau$ correlation coefficients, mean difference and standard deviation. Results: Although some of the 2-sample GFR showed high correlation coefficient, over or underestimation had evolved as the renal function change. The 10-120-240 min 3-sample GFR showed a high correlation coefficient (${\tau}=0.93$), minimal difference ($Mean{\pm}SD=-1.784{\pm}3.972$), and no over or underestimation as the renal function changed. The 4-sample GFR showed no better accuracy than the 3-sample GFR. Conclusions: In the wide spectrum of renal function, the 10-120-240 min 3-sample GFC could be the best choice for estimating the patients' renal function.

Estimating the Dimension of a Crosswalk in Urban Area - Focusing on Width and Stop Line - (도시부 횡단보도 제원 산정에 관한 연구 - 폭과 정지선을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Yoomi;Park, Jejin;Kwon, Sungdae;Ha, Taejun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.847-856
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    • 2016
  • Recently, with a high level of economic growth, rapid urbanization, population, environment and housing problems were accompanied in Korea. In particular, the traffic problem has become a serious social problem. As the current transportation policy has been carried out, concentrating on traffic flow, in 2015, death rate for pedestrians while walking (1,795 persons) is 38.8% compared to entire death rate in car accident (4,621 persons), so there is need to solve it. Although, crosswalk should make pedestrian cross it safely, it has been made on the basis of the width of road without exact standard for current width of the crosswalk and the location of stop line. Moreover, in the area around many campuses or commercial facilities, crosswalks are set with not considering pedestrian passage, but designed uniformly. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate reasonable dimension of crosswalk considering pedestrian traffic and walking speed and it makes the accident rate lower in the crosswalk, which has a lot of problems including decisions of vehicle traffic signal time, lack of pedestrian's signal timing, pedestrian's crossing of long-distance. The following are the methodology of the study. Firstly, for crosswalk calculation of specifications, examination relating existing regulations and researches dealing with crosswalk, pedestrians and stop line is needed. After analyzing problems of current width of crosswalk and stop line, present the methodology to calculation of specifications and basing on these things, calculation of specifications for crosswalk will be decided. In conclusion, the calculation of specification and improvement of stop line for crosswalk laid out in this study are expected to be utilized as base data in case of establishing relevant safety facilities and standards.

Technical Efficiency in Korea: Interindustry Determinants and Dynamic Stability (기술적(技術的) 효율성(效率性)의 결정요인(決定要因)과 동태적(動態的) 변화(變化))

  • Yoo, Seong-min
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.21-46
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    • 1990
  • This paper, a sequel to Yoo and Lee (1990), attempts to investigate the interindustry determinants of technical efficiency in Korea's manufacturing industries, and also to conduct an exploratory analysis on the stability of technical efficiency over time. The hypotheses set forth in this paper are most found in the existing literature on technical efficiency. They are, however, revised and shed a new light upon, whenever possible, to accommodate any Korea-specific conditions. The set of regressors used in the cross-sectional analysis are chosen and the hypotheses are posed in such a way that our result can be made comparable to those of similar studies conducted for the U.S. and Japan by Caves and Barton (1990) and Uekusa and Torii (1987), respectively. It is interesting to observe a certain degree of similarity as well as differentiation between the cross-section evidence on Korea's manufacturing industries and that on the U.S. and Japanese industries. As for the similarities, we can find positive and significant effects on technical efficiency of relative size of production and the extent of specialization in production, and negative and significant effect of the variations in capital-labor ratio within industries. The curvature influence of concentration ratio on technical efficiency is also confirmed in the Korean case. There are differences, too. We cannot find any significant effects of capital vintage, R&D and foreign competition on technical efficiency, all of which were shown to be robust determinants of technical efficiency in the U.S. case. We note, however, that the variables measuring capital vintage effect, R&D and the degree of foreign competition in Korean markets are suspected to suffer from serious measurement errors incurred in data collection and/or conversion of industrial classification system into the KSIC (Korea Standard Industrial Classification) system. Thus, we are reluctant to accept the findings on the effects of these variables as definitive conclusions on Korea's industrial organization. Another finding that interests us is that the cross-industry evidence becomes consistently strong when we use the efficiency estimates based on gross output instead of value added, which provides us with an ex post empirical criterion to choose an output measure between the two in estimating the production frontier. We also conduct exploratory analyses on the stability of the estimates of technical efficiency in Korea's manufacturing industries. Though the method of testing stability employed in this paper is never a complete one, we cannot find strong evidence that our efficiency estimates are stable over time. The outcome is both surprising and disappointing. We can also show that the instability of technical efficiency over time is partly explained by the way we constructed our measures of technical efficiency. To the extent that our efficiency estimates depend on the shape of the empirical distribution of plants in the input-output space, any movements of the production frontier over time are not reflected in the estimates, and possibilities exist of associating a higher level of technical efficiency with a downward movement of the production frontier over time, and so on. Thus, we find that efficiency measures that take into account not only the distributional changes, but also the shifts of the production frontier over time, increase the extent of stability, and are more appropriate for use in a dynamic context. The remaining portion of the instability of technical efficiency over time is not explained satisfactorily in this paper, and future research should address this question.

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Review on the Justifiable Grounds for Withdrawal of Meaningless Life-sustaining Treatment -Based on a case of Supreme Court's Sentence No. 2009DA17417 (May 21, 2009)- (무의미한 연명치료 중단 등의 기준에 관한 재고 - 대법원 2009.5.21 선고 2009다17417사건 판결을 중심으로 -)

  • Moon, Seong-Jea
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.309-341
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    • 2009
  • According to a case of Supreme Court's Sentence No. 2009DA17417 (May 21, 2009), the Supreme Court judges that 'the right to life is the ultimate one of basic human rights stipulated in the Constitution, so it is required to very limitedly and conservatively determine whether to discontinue any medical practice on which patient's life depends directly.' In addition, the Supreme Court admits that 'only if a patient who comes to a fatal phase before death due to attack of any irreversible disease may execute his or her right of self-determination based on human respect and values and human right to pursue happiness, it is permissible to discontinue life-sustaining treatment for him or her, unless there is any special circumstance.' Furthermore, the Supreme Court finds that 'if a patient who is attacked by any irreversible disease informs medical personnel of his or her intention to agree on the refusal or discontinuance of life-sustaining treatment in advance of his or her potential irreversible loss of consciousness, it is justifiable that he or she already executes the right of self-determination according to prior medical instructions, unless there is any special circumstance where it is reasonably concluded that his or her physician is changed after prior medical instructions for him or her.' The Supreme Court also finds that 'if a patient remains at irreversible loss of consciousness without any prior medical instruction, he or she cannot express his or her intentions at all, so it is rational and complying with social norms to admit possibility of estimating his or her own intentions on withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment, provided that such a withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment meets his or her interests in view of his or her usual sense of values or beliefs and it is reasonably concluded that he or she could likely choose to discontinue life-sustaining treatment, even if he or she were given any chance to execute his or her right of self-determination.' This judgment is very significant in a sense that it suggests the reasonable orientation of solutions for issues posed concerning withdrawal of meaningless life-sustaining medical efforts. The issues concerning removal of medical instruments for meaningless life-sustaining treatment and discontinuance of such treatment in regard to medical treatment for terminal cases don't seem to be so much big deal when a patient has clear consciousness enough to express his or her intentions, but it counts that there is any issue regarding a patient who comes to irreversible loss of consciousness and cannot express his or her intentions. Therefore, it is required to develop an institutional instrument that allows relevant authority to estimate the scope of physician's medical duties for terminal patients as well as a patient's intentions to withdraw any meaningless treatment during his or her terminal phase involving loss of consciousness. However, Korean judicial authority has yet to clarify detailed cases where it is permissible to discontinue any life-sustaining treatment for a patient in accordance with his or her right of self-determination. In this context, it is inevitable and challenging to make better legislation to improve relevant systems concerning withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment. The State must assure the human basic rights for its citizens and needs to prepare a system to assure such basic rights through legislative efforts. In this sense, simply entrusting physician, patient or his or her family with any critical issue like the withdrawal of meaningless life-sustaining treatment, even without any reasonable standard established for such entrustment, means the neglect of official duties by the State. Nevertheless, this issue is not a matter that can be resolved simply by legislative efforts. In order for our society to accept judicial system for withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment, it is important to form a social consensus about this issue and also make proactive discussions on it from a variety of standpoints.

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Real Option Analysis to Value Government Risk Share Liability in BTO-a Projects (손익공유형 민간투자사업의 투자위험분담 가치 산정)

  • KU, Sukmo;LEE, Sunghoon;LEE, Seungjae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.360-373
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    • 2017
  • The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.

Identifying Roadway Sections Influenced by Speed Humps Using Survival Analysis (생존분석을 활용한 과속방지턱 영향구간 분석)

  • YOON, Gyugeun;JANG, Youlim;KHO, Seung-Young;LEE, Chungwon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.261-277
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    • 2017
  • This study defines influencing sections as the part of the road section where passing vehicles are traveling with the lower speed compared to speed limit due to speed humps. The influencing section was divided into 3 parts; influencing section before the speed hump, interval section, and influencing section after the speed hump. This analysis focused on the changes of each part depending on installation types, vehicle types, and daytime or nighttime. For the interval section, especially, the ratio of distance traveled with lower speed than speed limit to interval section is defined as effective influencing section ratio to be analyzed. Vehicle speed profiles were collected with a speed gun to extract influencing section lengths. The survival analysis was applied and estimated survival functions are compared with each other by several statistical tests. As a consequence, the average length of influencing section on the 50m sequential speed humps was 75.3% longer during the deceleration than that of isolated speed hump, and 18.9% during the acceleration. The effective influencing section ratio for the 30m and 50m sequential speed humps had a small difference of 81.0% and 76.0% while the absolute values of the section that passing speed were less than the speed limit were longer on 50m sequential speed humps, each being 24.3m and 38.0m. Using the log rank test, it was evident that sequential speed humps were more effective to increase the length of influencing sections compared to the isolated speed hump. Vehicle type was the strong factor for influencing section length on the isolated speed hump, but daytime or nighttime was not the effective one. This research result can be used for improving the efficiency selecting the installation point of speed humps for road safety and estimating the standard of the distance between sequential speed humps.

The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM (다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형)

  • Park, Ji-Young;Hong, Tae-Ho
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.

A comparative study on the distribution transaction policy between Korea and Japan: focused on unfair transaction behavior prohibition (유통부문에 있어서 경쟁정책의 비교 연구 - 불공정거래행위에 대한 한국과 일본의 대응방식 -)

  • Yoo, Ki-Joon
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.103-126
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    • 2010
  • The development of an industry including distribution sector is influenced by not only government policy but the related firms' behaviors. Recently the large-scale retailers have had more enormous channel power than any other distributors including monopolistic makers. Now is the time for government to prepare some policies against the unfair transaction behaviors by large-scale retailers. In this paper I tried to inquire into the distribution competition policy from a political correspondent point of view related with the transition of distribution system. For the purpose of this article I compared the case of Korea with Japan. According to the results so far inquired, there are some commons and differences in the cases of the two. Some suggestions are as follows. Considering the predominant position the concept of large-scale retailers is to be extended from a single store to numerous chain stores in the political level. Government needs to examine the standard propriety for large-scale retailer; the size of selling area and amount of sales a year. When a large-scale retailer store is to be established, it need to be taken a permit or a pre-inspection. The Fair Trade Commission have to secure the neutrality from Government's strategies. And government should find out the examples of unfair transaction behavior types and prepare some proper guidelines continually. For the last time statistical data by distributors are to be fitted out and the actual investigations for estimating the effects of government policies need to be enforced.

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Estimation of Environmental Effect and Genetic Parameters for The Carcass Traits in Hanwoo (Korean Cattle) (한우 도체형질의 환경효과 및 유전모수의 추정)

  • Moon, W.G.;Kim, B.W.;Roh, S.H.;Kim, H.S.;Jung, D.J.;Sun, D.W.;Kim, K.N.;Yoon, Y.T.;Jung, J.H.;Jeon, J.T.;Lee, J.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.689-698
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    • 2007
  • This study aims to estimate the genetic parameters for carcass traits on Hanwoo of breeding farmhouses using Animal Products Grading Service’s data of 428,812 cattle from 101 slaughterhouses nationwide from 2000 to 2005. Using carcass traits of carcass weight, eye muscle area, backfat thickness, marbling score, meat color and fat color that greatly influence Hanwoo's grade, the effects of carcass year, carcass season, sex and carcass region were estimated. Based upon carcass traits of carcass weight, eye muscle area, backfat thickness, marbling score and meat color that greatly influence Hanwoo’s grade, the heritabilities and genetic parameters were estimated of 17,578 Hanwoo slaughtered in 2005 with existing herdbook, where EM-REML algorithm was used in estimating genetic parameters. The mean and standard deviation of each carcass trait are 321.42±53.62kg, 76.25±10.43cm2, 9.96± 4.14mm, 3.75±2.00, 4.83±0.48 and 2.99±0.40, for carcass weight, eye muscle area, backfat thickness, marbling score, meat color and fat color, respectively. As a result of analysis on the effects of carcass year, the carcass weight, backfat thickness and meat color came out highest as 359.40±0.181, 9.82±0.017 and 4.90±0.002, respectively in 2004. As a result of analysis on the effects of carcass season, the carcass weight and eye muscle area came out highest as 345.88±0.144 and 79.57±0.033 respectively in spring, and the backfat thickness was highest as 8.78±0.013 in winter, and the meat color and fat color slightly came out higher as 4.88±0.002 and 2.96±0.001 in fall, while the marbling score was highest as 3.29±0.006 in summer. The results of the analysis on the effects of sex indicated that the backfat thickness and fat color were highest as 10.53±0.010 and 3.07±0.001 in cow, the carcass weight came out highest in Hanwoo steer as 368.03±0.068kg, the eye muscle area were highest as 82.96±0.042 in bull, and the marbling score was highest as 4.19±0.007 in steer, and the meat color was highest as 4.89±0.001 in cow. Regarding the results of analysis on the effects of carcass region, the carcass weight, eye muscle area,