• Title/Summary/Keyword: spatial prediction

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Numerical Study on Spatial Prediction of Algae Concentration (조류의 공간적 농도 분포 예측을 위한 수치적 연구)

  • Kim, Jun Song;Seo, Il Won;Lyu, Siwan;Kwak, Sunghyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.92-92
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구에서는 수치모델을 이용하여 대하천서 발생되는 조류의 공간적 농도 분포를 예측하였고, 현장실험을 통해 모델을 검증하였다. 국내하천은 다수의 지류가 본류로 유입됨에 따라 오염물질의 생산과 공급이 지속적으로 발생하고, 하천의 유로연장과 하폭에 비해 수심이 낮은 지형학적 특성을 지닌다. 따라서 지류 유입 이후 발생되는 조류의 거동 특성을 분석하기 위해 수심 적분된 2차원 이송-확산 모델을 사용하였다. 광합성 성장을 이루는 조류의 성장속도 계산을 위해 영양염류, 수온, 일사량과 수심 등을 변수로 하는 성장속도 함수들을 위의 모델과 결합하였다. 본 연구의 대상구간은 낙동강과 금호강 합류부를 포함한 강정고령보 하류 약 9.2 km 구간으로 모델 검증을 위한 현장실험을 수행하였다. 2차원 이송-확산 모델의 입력 값인 유속 및 수심을 계산하는 수리동역학 모델 검증을 위해 미국 Sontek사의 M9을 이용하여 낙동강과 금호강 각각 32개, 12개 측선에 대하여 수리량을 측정하였다. 수리량 측정결과, 금호강과 낙동강의 평균 유량은 각각 $240m^3/s$, $60m^3/s$로 측정되었고 측정된 유량을 모델의 상류단 경계조건으로 사용하여 측정 유속 및 수심과 유사한 결과를 모델로부터 취득할 수 있었다. 조류 농도 측정을 위해 독일 bbe사의 AlgaeTorch 10을 사용하였으며, 수리량 측정과 동일한 측선서 총 조류 세포수(cells/ml)를 측정하였다. 농도 측정결과, 하류로 내려감에 따라 조류의 농도가 증가하는 경향이 나타났고 금호강 합류 후 최대농도는 측정구간 최하류 우안서 4,460 cells/ml로 나타났다. 주 흐름이 발생하는 하천 중앙부에 비해 유속이 느린 하안서 상대적으로 높은 농도가 측정되었으며, 이와 같은 경향은 하류로 내려감에 따라 강하게 나타났다. 측정된 조류 농도를 이용한 2차원 이송-확산 모델 검증결과, 합류부 최상류 측선서 MAPE = 10.5 %의 최대오차가 발생하였고 최하류 측선서 MAPE = 6.7 %의 최소오차가 발생하였다. 인과 질소와 같은 영양염류의 농도가 높고 횡 방향 수온 분포가 균일한 대상구간의 특성상 영양염류 함수와 수온 함수로부터 계산된 성장속도 가중치 범위는 각각 0.8~1.0, 0.91~1.09로 공간적 변동성이 크게 나타나지 않은 반면, 수심을 변수로 하는 일사량 함수의 성장속도 가중치 범위는 0.05~1.00으로 상대적으로 매우 높은 공간적 변동성이 나타났다. 수심이 4 m 이하인 하천 양안서 0.8 이상의 가중치가 나타났으며, 수심이 7 m 이상인 하천 중앙서 0.4 이하의 가중치가 나타났다. 본 연구의 수치모의 결과, 수리동역학 모델로부터 계산된 수심이 모델 결과 값에 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 판단된다.

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Prediction of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for Geranium carolinianum under SSP scenarios (SSPs 시나리오에 따른 미국쥐손이 적합 서식지 분포 예측)

  • Oh, Young-Ju;Kim, Myung-Hyun;Choi, Soon-Kun;Kim, Min-Kyeong;Eo, Jinu;Yeob, So-Jin;Bang, Jeong Hwan;Lee, Yong Ho
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.154-163
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    • 2021
  • This study was carried out to identify the factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for Geranium carolinianum, which was naturalized in South Korea, and to predict the changes of distribution in the future. We collected occurrence data of G. carolinianum at 68 sites in South Korea, and applied the MaxEnt model under climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). Precipitation seasonality (bio15), mean temperature of warmest quarter (bio10), and mean temperature of driest quarter (bio09) had high contribution for potential distribution of G. carolinianum. According to climate change scenarios, high suitable habitats of G. carolinianum occupied 6.43% of the land of South Korea in historical period (1981~2010), and 92.60% under SSP2-4.5, and 98.36% undr SSP5-8.5 in far future (2071~2100).

The Estimation of Arctic Air Temperature in Summer Based on Machine Learning Approaches Using IABP Buoy and AMSR2 Satellite Data (기계학습 기반의 IABP 부이 자료와 AMSR2 위성영상을 이용한 여름철 북극 대기 온도 추정)

  • Han, Daehyeon;Kim, Young Jun;Im, Jungho;Lee, Sanggyun;Lee, Yeonsu;Kim, Hyun-cheol
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.6_2
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    • pp.1261-1272
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    • 2018
  • It is important to measure the Arctic surface air temperature because it plays a key-role in the exchange of energy between the ocean, sea ice, and the atmosphere. Although in-situ observations provide accurate measurements of air temperature, they are spatially limited to show the distribution of Arctic surface air temperature. In this study, we proposed machine learning-based models to estimate the Arctic surface air temperature in summer based on buoy data and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2)satellite data. Two machine learning approaches-random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM)-were used to estimate the air temperature twice a day according to AMSR2 observation time. Both RF and SVM showed $R^2$ of 0.84-0.88 and RMSE of $1.31-1.53^{\circ}C$. The results were compared to the surface air temperature and spatial distribution of the ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). They tended to underestimate the Barents Sea, the Kara Sea, and the Baffin Bay region where no IABP buoy observations exist. This study showed both possibility and limitations of the empirical estimation of Arctic surface temperature using AMSR2 data.

Simulation of Past 6000-Year Climate by Using the Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity LOVECLIM (중간복잡도 지구시스템모델 LOVECLIM을 이용한 과거 6천년 기후 변화 모의)

  • Jun, Sang-Yoon
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.87-103
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    • 2019
  • This study introduces the overall characteristics of LOVECLIM version 1.3, the earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC), including the installation and operation processes by conducting two kinds of past climate simulation. First climate simulation is the equilibrium experiment during the mid-Holocene (6,000 BP), when orbital parameters were different compared to those at present. The overall accuracy of simulated global atmospheric fields by LOVECLIM is relatively lower than that in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and Paleoclimate modelling Intercomparison Project phase 3 (PMIP3) simulations. However, surface temperature over the globe, the 800 hPa meridional wind over the mid-latitude coastal region, and the 200 hPa zonal wind from LOVECLIM show similar spatial distribution to those multi-model mean of CMIP5/PMIP3 climate models. Second one is the transient climate experiment from mid-Holocene to present. LOVECLIM well captures the major differences in surface temperature between preindustrial and mid-Holocene simulations by CMIP5/PMIP3 multi-model mean, even though it was performed with short integration time (i.e., about four days in a single CPU environment). In this way, although the earth system model of intermediate complexity has a limit due to its relatively low accuracy, it can be a very useful tool in the specific research area such as paleoclimate.

Coarse Grid Wave Hindcasting in the Yellow Sea Considering the Effect of Tide and Tidal Current (조석 및 조류 효과를 고려한 황해역 광역 파랑 수치모의 실험)

  • Chun, Hwusub;Ahn, Kyungmo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.286-297
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    • 2018
  • In the present study, wave measurements at KOGA-W01 were analyzed and then the numerical wind waves simulations have been conducted to investigate the characteristics of wind waves in the Yellow sea. According to the present analysis, even though the location of the wave stations are close to the coastal region, the deep water waves are prevailed due to the short fetch length. Chun and Ahn's (2017a, b) numerical model has been extended to the Yellow Sea in this study. The effects of tide and tidal currents should be included in the model to accommodate the distinctive effect of large tidal range and tidal current in the Yellow Sea. The wave hindcasting results were compared with the wave measurements collected KOGA-W01 and Kyeockpo. The comparison shows the reasonable agreements between wave hindcastings and measured data, however the model significantly underestimate the wave period of swell waves from the south due to the narrow computational domain. Despite the poorly prediction in the significant wave period of swell waves which usually have small wave heights, the estimation of the extreme wave height and corresponding wave period shows good agreement with the measurement data.

Development of a habitat suitability index for the habitat restoration of Pedicularis hallaisanensis Hurusawa

  • Rae-Ha, Jang;Sunryoung, Kim;Jin-Woo, Jung;Jae-Hwa, Tho;Seokwan, Cheong;Young-Jun, Yoon
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.316-323
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    • 2022
  • Background: We developed a habitat suitability index (HSI) model for Pedicularis hallaisanensis, a Grade II Endangered Species in South Korea. To determine the habitat variables, we conducted a literature review on P. hallaisanensis with a specific focus on the associated spatial factors, climate, topography, threats, and soil factors to derive five environmental factors that influence P. hallaisanensis habitats. The specific variables were defined based on the collected data and consultations with experts in the field, with the validity of each variable tested through field studies. Results: Mt. Seorak had a suitable habitat area of 2.48 km2 for sites with a score of 1 (0.62% of total area) and 0.01 km2 for sites with a score of 0.9. Mt. Bangtae had a suitable habitat area of 0.03 km2 for sites with a score of 1 (0.02% of total area) and 0 km2 for sites with a score of 0.9. Mt. Gaya showed 0.13 km2 of suitable habitat for sites with a score of 1 (0.17% of total area) and 0 km2 for sites with a score of 0.9. Lastly, Mt. Halla showed 3.12 km2 of suitable habitat related to sites with a score of 1 (2.04% of total area) and 4.08 km2 of sites with a score of 0.9 (2.66% of total area). Mt. Halla accounts for 73.1% of the total core habitat area. Considering the climatic, soil, and forest conditions together with standardized collection sites, our results indicate that Mt. Halla should be viewed as a core habitat of P. hallaisanensis. Conclusions: The findings in this study provide useful data for the identification of core habitat areas and potential alternative habitats to prevent the extinction of the endangered species, P. hallaisanensis. Furthermore, the developed HSI model allows for the prediction of suitable habitats based on the ecological niche of a given species to identify its unique distribution and causal factors.

Development of Integrated Management System Based on GIS on Soft Ground (GIS 기법을 이용한 연약 지반 시공 관리 시스템의 개발)

  • Chun, Sung-Ho;Woo, Sang-Inn;Chung, Choong-Ki;Choi, In-Gul
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.23 no.7
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2007
  • In the practice of preloading method for soft ground improvement, field engineers need information of ground properties, construction works and field monitoring on ground behaviors of the site. So, integrating all these informations into one database can provide more efficient way for managing and utilizing the data for construction management. In this study, integrated system for construction management of ground improvement sites under preloading is developed. The developed system consists of database (DB) and application program. The database contains all collected data in a construction site and processed data in the system with their geographic information. All informations in the database are standardized from the result of data characterization. Application program performs various functions on managing and utilizing information in the database; pre- and post- data processing with graphic visualization of output, spatial data interpolation, and prediction of ground behavior using field measuring data. And by providing integrating informations and predictions over entire project area with comprehensible visual displays, the applicability and effectiveness of the developed system for construction management were confirmed.

Prediction of Soil Moisture using Hydrometeorological Data in Selmacheon (수문기상자료를 이용한 설마천의 토양수분 예측)

  • Joo, Je Young;Choi, Minha;Jung, Sung Won;Lee, Seung Oh
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5B
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    • pp.437-444
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    • 2010
  • Soil moisture has been recognized as the essential parameter when understanding the complicated relationship between land surface and atmosphere in water and energy recycling system. It has been generally known that it is related with the temperature, wind, evaporation dependent on soil properties, transpiration due to vegetations and other constituents. There is, however, little research concerned about the relationship between soil moisture and these constitutes, thus it is needed to investigate it in detail. We estimated the soil moisture and then compared with field data using the hydrometerological data such as atmospheric temperature, specific humidity, and wind obtained from the Flux tower in Selmacheon, Korea. In the winter season, subterranean temperature showed highly positive correlation with soil moisture while it was negatively correlated from the spring to the fall. Estimation of seasonal soil moisture was compared with field measurements with the correlation of determination, R=0.82, 0.81, 0.82, and 0.96 for spring, summer, fall, and winter, respectively. Comprehensive relationship from this study can supply useful information about the downscaling of soil moisture with relatively large spatial resolutions, and will help to deepen the understanding of the water and energy recycling on the earth's surface.

Application of Self-Organizing Map for the Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics (강우-유출특성 분석을 위한 자기조직화방법의 적용)

  • Kim, Yong Gu;Jin, Young Hoon;Park, Sung Chun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.1B
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2006
  • Various methods have been applied for the research to model the relationship between rainfall-runoff, which shows a strong nonlinearity. In particular, most researches to model the relationship between rainfall-runoff using artificial neural networks have used back propagation algorithm (BPA), Levenberg Marquardt (LV) and radial basis function (RBF). and They have been proved to be superior in representing the relationship between input and output showing strong nonlinearity and to be highly adaptable to rapid or significant changes in data. The theory of artificial neural networks is utilized not only for prediction but also for classifying the patterns of data and analyzing the characteristics of the patterns. Thus, the present study applied self?organizing map (SOM) based on Kohonen's network theory in order to classify the patterns of rainfall-runoff process and analyze the patterns. The results from the method proposed in the present study revealed that the method could classify the patterns of rainfall in consideration of irregular changes of temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall. In addition, according to the results from the analysis the patterns between rainfall-runoff, seven patterns of rainfall-runoff relationship with strong nonlinearity were identified by SOM.

Prediction of Water Storage Rate for Agricultural Reservoirs Using Univariate and Multivariate LSTM Models (단변량 및 다변량 LSTM을 이용한 농업용 저수지의 저수율 예측)

  • Sunguk Joh;Yangwon Lee
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_4
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    • pp.1125-1134
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    • 2023
  • Out of the total 17,000 reservoirs in Korea, 13,600 small agricultural reservoirs do not have hydrological measurement facilities, making it difficult to predict water storage volume and appropriate operation. This paper examined univariate and multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) modeling to predict the storage rate of agricultural reservoirs using remote sensing and artificial intelligence. The univariate LSTM model used only water storage rate as an explanatory variable, and the multivariate LSTM model added n-day accumulative precipitation and date of year (DOY) as explanatory variables. They were trained using eight years data (2013 to 2020) for Idong Reservoir, and the predictions of the daily water storage in 2021 were validated for accuracy assessment. The univariate showed the root-mean square error (RMSE) of 1.04%, 2.52%, and 4.18% for the one, three, and five-day predictions. The multivariate model showed the RMSE 0.98%, 1.95%, and 2.76% for the one, three, and five-day predictions. In addition to the time-series storage rate, DOY and daily and 5-day cumulative precipitation variables were more significant than others for the daily model, which means that the temporal range of the impacts of precipitation on the everyday water storage rate was approximately five days.