• 제목/요약/키워드: space-use prediction

검색결과 140건 처리시간 0.03초

일축압축강도에 미치는 암석시편의 형상효과 고찰 및 로드헤더 굴진율 예측모델 수정 (Investigation on Shape Effect of Rock Specimens to Uniaxial Compressive Strength and Modification of Performance Prediction Model of a Roadheader)

  • 김문규;이상민;조정우;최성현;엄준원
    • 터널과지하공간
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    • 제31권6호
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    • pp.440-459
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    • 2021
  • 최근 대형 로드헤더가 국내 터널현장에 도입되면서 해외 제조사의 굴진율 예측모델에 대한 관심이 증가하고 있다. 현재 주로 사용되는 해외모델은 압축강도로부터 굴진율을 예측하고 있는데, 암석 시험편의 직경 대 길이의 비율이 1.0인 시편을 일축압축시험으로 사용하고 있다. 일반적으로 시편의 형상과 치수는 강도에 영향을 미치는 것으로 알려져 있다. 본 기술보고에서는 직경 대 길이 비율에 따른 암석강도의 변화에 대한 기존 연구사례를 조사하였다. 그 형상효과에 대한 원인을 이론적으로 고찰하였다. 이를 토대로 국내 예정된 암종에 대해서 길이 비율에 따른 강도의 변화 양상을 예측하고 굴진율 수정모델을 제시하였다.

How to forecast solar flares, solar proton events, and geomagnetic storms

  • Moon, Yong Jae
    • 천문학회보
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    • 제38권2호
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    • pp.33-33
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    • 2013
  • We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

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폐쇄공간에서의 에이전트 행동 예측을 위한 MDP 모델 (MDP Modeling for the Prediction of Agent Movement in Limited Space)

  • 진효원;김수환;정치정;이문걸
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제40권3호
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents the issue that is predicting the movement of an agent in an enclosed space by using the MDP (Markov Decision Process). Recent researches on the optimal path finding are confined to derive the shortest path with the use of deterministic algorithm such as $A^*$ or Dijkstra. On the other hand, this study focuses in predicting the path that the agent chooses to escape the limited space as time passes, with the stochastic method. The MDP reward structure from GIS (Geographic Information System) data contributed this model to a feasible model. This model has been approved to have the high predictability after applied to the route of previous armed red guerilla.

Spatial and Statistical Properties of Electric Current Density in the Nonlinear Force-Free Model of Active Region 12158

  • 강지혜
    • 천문학회보
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    • 제41권1호
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    • pp.46.1-46.1
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    • 2016
  • The formation process of a current sheet is important for solar flare from a viewpoint of a space weather prediction. We therefore derive the temporal development of the spatial and statistical distribution of electric current density distributed in a flare-producing active region to describe the formation of a current sheet. We derive time sequence distribution of electric current density by applying a nonlinear force-free approximation reconstruction to Active Region 12158 that produces an X1.6-class flare. The time sequence maps of photospheric vector magnetic field used for reconstruction are captured by a Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) on 10th September, 2014. The spatial distribution of electric current density in NLFFF model well reproduce observed sigmoidal structure at the preflare phase, although a layer of high current density shrinks at the postflare phase. A double power-law profile of electric current density is found in statistical analysis. This may be expected to use an indicator of the occurrence of a solar flare.

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대규모 신 주거단지 개발에 의한 도시공간구조의 변화에 관한 연구 -춘천시 동내면 신 주거단지 개발을 대상으로- (A Study on the Change of Urban Spatial Configuration by Large Scale New Residential Area Development -Focused on the New Residential Area Development of Dongnae Township, Chuncheon City-)

  • 이석권
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제11권5호
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    • pp.1791-1798
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구는 Space syntax를 이용한 도시공간구조의 객관적, 정량적 분석을 통하여 신 주거단지 개발에 따른 공간구조의 변화와 특성을 예측하고, 이를 도시현황통계자료와 정성적인 분석을 연계하였다. 그 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 1) 현재의 계획대로 대규모의 동내면 신 주거단지를 개발하였을 경우 신 주거단지로의 접근성이 떨어지고, 신 주거 단지 개발로 인한 외부의 공간적 파급효과 또한 미약할 것으로 예측되어 구조적으로 도시를 통합시키는 역할을 하지 못하고 도시구조를 단절시키는 구조적인 문제를 야기할 것으로 예측된다. 2) 2004년 춘천시 도시계획총괄도에 의해 계획된 기존도심과 주 간선도로 사이의 도시계획도로가 같이 개발하였을 경우 춘천시 전체공간과 신 주거단지로의 접근이 용이하게 되어, 신 주거단지가 춘천시 도시공간 전체에 대한 부분으로 전체에 적절히 통합되어, 결과적으로 춘천시 중앙부와 주변의 주거지의 용도상 구분이 명확해지는 것으로 예측된다.

다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형 (The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM)

  • 박지영;홍태호
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.

Plant breeding in the 21st century: Molecular breeding and high throughput phenotyping

  • Sorrells, Mark E.
    • 한국작물학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국작물학회 2017년도 9th Asian Crop Science Association conference
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    • pp.14-14
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    • 2017
  • The discipline of plant breeding is experiencing a renaissance impacting crop improvement as a result of new technologies, however fundamental questions remain for predicting the phenotype and how the environment and genetics shape it. Inexpensive DNA sequencing, genotyping, new statistical methods, high throughput phenotyping and gene-editing are revolutionizing breeding methods and strategies for improving both quantitative and qualitative traits. Genomic selection (GS) models use genome-wide markers to predict performance for both phenotyped and non-phenotyped individuals. Aerial and ground imaging systems generate data on correlated traits such as canopy temperature and normalized difference vegetative index that can be combined with genotypes in multivariate models to further increase prediction accuracy and reduce the cost of advanced trials with limited replication in time and space. Design of a GS training population is crucial to the accuracy of prediction models and can be affected by many factors including population structure and composition. Prediction models can incorporate performance over multiple environments and assess GxE effects to identify a highly predictive subset of environments. We have developed a methodology for analyzing unbalanced datasets using genome-wide marker effects to group environments and identify outlier environments. Environmental covariates can be identified using a crop model and used in a GS model to predict GxE in unobserved environments and to predict performance in climate change scenarios. These new tools and knowledge challenge the plant breeder to ask the right questions and choose the tools that are appropriate for their crop and target traits. Contemporary plant breeding requires teams of people with expertise in genetics, phenotyping and statistics to improve efficiency and increase prediction accuracy in terms of genotypes, experimental design and environment sampling.

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기계학습을 통한 전기화재 예측모델 연구 (Electrical fire prediction model study using machine learning)

  • 고경석;황동현;박상준;문가경
    • 한국정보전자통신기술학회논문지
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    • 제11권6호
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    • pp.703-710
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    • 2018
  • 매년 전기화재사고에 대한 사고유형 분석, 점검 등 전기적 화재사고를 줄이기 위해 다양한 노력이 있었으나, 효율적인 의사결정지원 체계 및 기존 누적 데이터 활용방안의 미비로 효과적인 대처방안이 부재한 현황이다. 본 연구는 전기안전점검데이터, 전기화재사고정보, 건축물정보, 기상청정보 등 데이터 기반의 전기화재를 예측하는 알고리즘을 개발하고 이를 활용하여 전기화재사고를 줄이는데 목적이 있다. 본 연구에서는 한국전기안전공사, 기상청, 국토교통부, 소방본부 등 기관별로 수집된 데이터를 전처리, 융합, 분석, 모델링, 검증 과정을 거쳐 전기화재에 영향을 끼치는 요인과 예측모델을 도출하였다. 주요요인으로 절연저항 값, 습도, 풍속, 건축물 노후년수, 용적율, 건폐율, 건축물용도로 나타났고, Random forest 알고리즘을 활용한 예측모델은 74.7%의 정확도를 얻었다.

FNN 및 PNN에 기초한 FPNN의 합성 다층 추론 구조와 알고리즘 (The Hybrid Multi-layer Inference Architectures and Algorithms of FPNN Based on FNN and PNN)

  • 박병준;오성권;김현기
    • 대한전기학회논문지:시스템및제어부문D
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    • 제49권7호
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    • pp.378-388
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we propose Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Networks(FPNN) based on Polynomial Neural Networks(PNN) and Fuzzy Neural Networks(FNN) for model identification of complex and nonlinear systems. The proposed FPNN is generated from the mutually combined structure of both FNN and PNN. The one and the other are considered as the premise part and consequence part of FPNN structure respectively. As the consequence part of FPNN, PNN is based on Group Method of Data Handling(GMDH) method and its structure is similar to Neural Networks. But the structure of PNN is not fixed like in conventional Neural Networks and self-organizing networks that can be generated. FPNN is available effectively for multi-input variables and high-order polynomial according to the combination of FNN with PNN. Accordingly it is possible to consider the nonlinearity characteristics of process and to get better output performance with superb predictive ability. As the premise part of FPNN, FNN uses both the simplified fuzzy inference as fuzzy inference method and error back-propagation algorithm as learning rule. The parameters such as parameters of membership functions, learning rates and momentum coefficients are adjusted using genetic algorithms. And we use two kinds of FNN structure according to the division method of fuzzy space of input variables. One is basic FNN structure and uses fuzzy input space divided by each separated input variable, the other is modified FNN structure and uses fuzzy input space divided by mutually combined input variables. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, we use the nonlinear function and traffic route choice process. The results show that the proposed FPNN can produce the model with higher accuracy and more robustness than any other method presented previously. And also performance index related to the approximation and prediction capabilities of model is evaluated and discussed.

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정지궤도 위성의 열평형 시험 모델링 및 예비 예측 (THERMAL BALANCE MODELLING AND PREDICTION FOR A GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE)

  • 전형열;김정훈
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산유체공학회 2009년 춘계학술대회논문집
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    • pp.142-147
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    • 2009
  • COMS (Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite) is a geostationary satellite and has been developing by KARI for communication, ocean and meteorological observations. It will be tested under vacuum condition and very low temperature in order to verify thermal design of COMS. The test will be performed by using KARI large thermal vacuum chamber, which was developed by KARI, and the COMS will be the first flight satellite tested in this chamber. The purposes of thermal balance test are to correlate analytical model used for design evaluation and predicting temperatures, and to verify and adjust thermal control concept. KARI has plan to use heating plates to simulate space hot condition especially for radiator panels such as north and south panels. They will be controlled from 90K to 273K by circulating GN2 and LN2 alternatively according to the test phases, while the shroud of the vacuum chamber will be under constant temperature, 90K, during all thermal balance test. This paper presents thermal modelling including test chamber, heating plates and the satellite without solar array wing and Ka-band reflectors and discusses temperature prediction during thermal balance test.

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