• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.305-317
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• 2011

This paper presents an overview on flutter boundary prediction in tests which is principally based on a system stability measure, named Jury's stability criterion, defined in the discrete-time domain, accompanied with the use of autoregressive moving-average (AR-MA) representation of a sampled sequence of wing responses excited by continuous air turbulences. Stability parameters applicable to two-, three- and multi-mode systems, that is, the flutter margin for discrete-time systems derived from Jury's criterion are also described. Actual applications of these measures to flutter tests performed in subsonic, transonic and supersonic wind tunnels, not only stationary flutter tests but also a nonstationary one in which the dynamic pressure increased in a fixed rate, are presented. An extension of the concept of nonstationary process approach to an analysis of flutter prediction of a morphing wing for which the instability takes place during the process of structural morphing will also be mentioned. Another extension of analytical approach to a multi-mode aeroelastic system is presented, too. Comparisons between the prediction based on the digital techniques mentioned above and the traditional damping method are given. A future possible application of the system stability approach to flight test will be finally discussed.

• 한국터널지하공간학회 논문집
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.245-256
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• 2016

TBM을 적용하는 현장에서 장비 선택, 공사기간 및 공사비용의 합리적인 산정을 위하여 TBM의 굴진성능을 정확하게 예측하는 것은 매우 중요한 사안이다. 본 연구에서는 최신 자료들을 바탕으로 기존의 TBM 굴진성능 예측모델들의 평가과정과 방법론에 대한 분석을 수행하였다. 2000년 이후에 발표된 문헌들에 대한 조사를 토대로 TBM 굴진성능 예측모델의 분류체계를 제시하였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 분류체계에서는 TBM 굴진성능 예측모델에 필요한 입력인자 선정단계와 예측기법 적용단계로 크게 구분하였다. 또한 각 예측모델에서 사용된 입력인자, 출력인자 그리고 예측모델에서 사용된 인자의 적용빈도를 분석하였다. 마지막으로 TBM 굴진성능 예측모델의 현황과 향후 연구방향에 대하여 제언하였다.

• 천문학논총
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.91-102
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• 1999

We have made intensive calculations on the maximum relative sunspot number and the date of solar maximum of 23rd solar cycle, by using the statistical and precursor methods to predict solar activity cycle. According to our results of solar data processing by statistical method, solar maximum comes at between February and July of 2000 year and at that time, the smoothed sunspot number will reach to $114.3\~122.8$. while precursor method gives rather dispersed value of $118\~17$ maximum sunspot number. It is found that prediction by statistical method using smoothed relative sunspot number is more accurate than by any method to use any data of 10.7cm radio fluxes and geomagnetic aa, Ap indexes, from the full analysis of solar cycle pattern of these data. In fact, current ascending pattern of 23rd solar cycle supports positively our predicted values. Predicted results by precursor method for $Ap_{avg},\;aa_{31-36}$ indexes show similar values to those by statistical method. Therefore, these indexes can be used as new precursors for the prediction of 23rd or next solar cycle.

• 자원환경지질
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• 제55권4호
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• pp.421-428
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• 2022

본 연구는 2022년 발표한 한국의 제6회 과학기술예측조사와 2019년 발표한 최신의 일본 과학기술예측조사 결과에 주목하여 최근 지질자원 분야에서 국가·사회적으로 높은 기대를 받고 있는 지진재해와 우주이용에 관한 미래기술을 분석하였다. 한국의 2022년 발표한 지진재해 관련 미래기술은 2017년 제시한 지진 예측 및 조기경보 기술 형태와 달리 지진·복합재난 정보기술과 공공데이터 플랫폼으로 제시되었고, 건물·도시의 재난대응 생활밀착 로봇에 적용하는 형태로 제시되었다. 일본 2019년 과학기술예측조사에서는 한국의 3배 수준의 많은 미래기술이 제시되었으며, 지진재해 기술 또한 대규모 지진 예측, 지층 주입에 따른 유발 지진 예측, 전국 액상화 위험 규명, 규모 광역 응력 측정, 사물인터넷(IoT) 혹은 인공지능 관측 영상 분석에 의한 지진 재해 감시·예측 등 상세 기술이 제시되었다. 최신 한국과 일본의 과학기술예측조사의 우주이용 기술은 물/얼음, 헬륨-3, 희토류 금속 등의 자원을 채굴하는 로봇 기술과 달·화성에서 현지자원을 활용한 유인기지 기술 형태로 더욱 구체화되었다. 일본의 기술적 실현시기를 비교해 보면 2019년에 예측한 실현시기가 2015년의 조사결과보다 4~10년 정도 지연되었다. 2019년 이후에도 코로나19 전염병 상황, 2020년 한국과 일본의 탄소중립 선언, 2022년 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 등 환경변화에 따라 한국과 일본의 미래기술 실현시기의 예측 결과의 불확실성이 더 커질 수 있다. 하지만 앞으로 지질자원 분야에서 정보기술과 연계한 지진재해 및 우주이용 기술에 대한 더욱더 활발한 연구개발이 요구된다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.425-433
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• 2009

Spatial models suitable for describing the evolving random fields in climate and environmental systems have been developed by many researchers. In general, rainfall in South Korea is highly variable in intensity and amount across space. This study characterizes the monthly and regional variation of rainfall fields using the spatial modeling. The main objective of this research is spatial prediction with the Bayesian hierarchical modeling (kriging) in order to further our understanding of water resources over space. We use the Bayesian approach in order to estimate the parameters and produce more reliable prediction. The Bayesian kriging also provides a promising solution for analyzing and predicting rainfall data.

• 천문학회보
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.127.2-127.2
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• 2012

Space weather prediction related to flares and CMEs is an important issue these days. It is, however, hard to estimate magnetic energy of invisible coronal magnetic structure. The virial theorem is one of the ways to determine the magnetic energy. In this study, we performed a series of MHD simulation of an emerging flux tube and apply the virial theorem to the simulation results and derive energetics of coronal structures. We then analyze real observational data on NOAA 11302 to derive the distributions of physical quantities, such as density, temperature, velocity and magnetic field. We also use knowledge form simulation analysis to estimate the magnetic energy of NOAA 11302.

• 자연, 터널 그리고 지하공간
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.101-112
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• 2019

This case study presented a simplified failure mechanism approach used as a preliminary deformation prediction for the Mexico City's metro system expansion. Because of the Mexico City's difficult subsoils, Line 12 project was considered one of the most challenging projects in Mexico. Mexico City's subsurface conditions can be described as a multilayered stratigraphy changing from soft high plastic clays to dense to very dense cemented sands. The Line 12 trajectory crossed all three main geotechnical Zones in Mexico City. Starting from to west of the City, Line 12 was projected to pass through very dense cemented sands corresponding to the Foothills zone changing to the Transition zone and finalizing in the Lake zone. Due to the change in the subsurface conditions, different constructions methods were implemented including the use of TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine), the NATM (New Austrian Tunneling Method), and cut-and-cover using braced Diaphragm walls for the underground section of the project. Preliminary crown and excavation front deformations were determined using a simplified failure mechanism prior to performing finite element modeling and analysis. Results showed corresponding deformations for the crown and the excavation front to be 3.5cm (1.4in) and 6cm (2.4in), respectively. Considering the complexity of Mexico City's difficult subsoil formation, construction method selection becomes a challenge to overcome. The use of a preliminary results in order to have a notion of possible deformations prior to advanced modeling and analysis could be beneficial and helpful to select possible construction procedures.

• 방송공학회논문지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.527-539
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• 2010

대부분의 비디오 부호화 시스템은 YCbCr 색 공간에서 부호화가 수행되나 초고화질 비디오가 사용되는 분야에서는 YCbCr 색 공간에서 부호화하는 것이 RGB 색 공간에서 부호화는 것에 비해 높은 압축 효율을 제공하지 않기 때문에 RGB 공간에서 부호화하는 것이 선호된다. RGB 비디오 신호의 압축 부호화 효율을 증대시키기 위하여 본 논문은 잔여신호의 적응적 주파수-선택 가중 예측 기법을 제안한다. RGB 비디오 신호의 색 평면간 상관도를 최대한 활용하기 위해, 제안 기법은 잔여신호 평면 사이의 주파수 영역에서의 부호 일치도와 상관 강도에 근거하여 적응적으로 잔여신호 평면 간 예측될 주파수 영역과 그에 상응하는 예측 가중치를 선택한다. 실험 결과는 최신의 비디오 압축 표준인 H.264/AVC에서 4:4:4 비디오 부호화의 공통 모드에 비해 약 13% 정도 압축 부호화 성능을 개선시켰음을 보여준다.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.144-153
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• 2017

In recent years, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been developed and studied for various applications, including drone deliveries, broadcasting, scouting, crop dusting, and firefighting. To enable the wide use of UAVs, their exact aeroacoustic characteristics must be assessed. In this study, a noise prediction method for a ducted fan UAV with complicated geometry was developed. In general, calculation efficiency is increased by simulating a ducted fan UAV without the struts that fix the fuselage to the ducts. However, numerical predictions of noise and aerodynamics differ according to whether struts are present. In terms of aerodynamic performance, the total thrust with and without struts is similar owing to the tendency of the thrust of a blade to offset the drag of the struts. However, in aeroacoustic simulations, the strut effect should be considered in order to predict the UAV's noise because noise from the blades can be changed by the strut effect. Modelling of the strut effect revealed that the dominant tonal noises were closely correlated with the blade passage frequency of the experimental results. Based on the successful detection of noise sources from a ducted fan UAV system, using the proposed noise contribution contour, methods for noise reduction can be suggested by comparing numerical results with measured noise profiles.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.26-32
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• 2006

This paper targets a direct and quantitative prediction of characteristics of unstable waves in a combustion chamber, which employs the governing equations derived in terms of amplification factors of flow variables. A freshly formulated nonlinear acoustic equation is obtained and the analysis of unsteady waves in a rocket engine is attempted. In the present formalism, perturbation method decomposes the variables into time-averaged part that can be obtained easily and accurately and time-varying part which is assumed to be harmonic. Excluding the use of conventional spatially sinusoidal eigenfunctions, a direct numerical solution of wave equation replaces the initial spatial distribution of standing waves and forms the nonlinear space-averaged terms. Amplification factor is also calculated independently by the time rate of changes of fluctuating variables, and is no longer an explicit function for compulsory representation. Employing only the numerical computation, major assumptions inevitably inherent, and in erroneous manner, in up to date analytical methods could be avoided. With two definitions of amplification factor, 1-D stable wave and 3-D unstable wave are examined, and clearly demonstrated the potentiality of a suggested theoretical-numerical method of combustion instability.