• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.39 no.1
• /
• pp.69.2-69.2
• /
• 2014

To estimate free magnetic energy stored in an active region is a key to the quantitative prediction of activity observed on the Sun. This energy is defined as an excess over the potential energy that is the lowest energy taken by a magnetic structure formed in the solar atmosphere including the solar corona. It is, however still difficult to derive the configuration of a coronal magnetic field only by observations, so we have to use some observable quantity to estimate free magnetic energy. Recently, by performing a coordinated series of three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of an emerging flux tube that transfers intense magnetic flux to the solar atmosphere we have found an universal power-law relation between free magnetic energy and emerged magnetic flux, the latter of which is a possibly observed quantity. We further investigate what causes this relation through a comparison with a model of linear force-free field.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.40 no.1
• /
• pp.63.2-63.2
• /
• 2015

Solar flare is one of the energetic phenomena observed on the Sun, and it is often accompanied with eruptions such as global-scale eruption of a flux rope (filament/prominence eruption) and small-scale eruption of a plasmoid. A flare itself is a dissipative phenomenon where accumulated electric current representing free magnetic energy is dissipated quickly at a special location called a current sheet formed in a generally highly conductive solar corona. Previous studies have demonstrated how a solar magnetic field placed on the Sun forms a current sheet when magnetic shear is added to the field. Our study is focused on a self-consistent process of how a subsurface magnetic field emerges into the solar atmosphere and forms a current sheet in the corona. This study also gives light to a relation among a flare and two types of flare-associated eruptions; flux-rope eruption and plasmoid eruption.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.52 no.4
• /
• pp.89-97
• /
• 2019

We demonstrate the subsurface origin of the observed evolution of the solar active region 10930 (AR10930) associated with merging and breakup of magnetic polarity regions at the solar surface. We performed a magnetohydrodynamic simulation of an emerging magnetic flux tube whose field-line twist is asymmetrically distributed along its axis, which is a key to merging and fragmentation in this active region. While emerging into the surface, the flux tube is subjected to partial splitting of its weakly twisted portion, forming separate polarity regions at the solar surface. As emergence proceeds, these separate polarity regions start to merge and then break up, while in the corona sigmoidal structures form and a solar eruption occurs. We discuss what physical processes could be involved in the characteristic evolution of an active region magnetic field that leads to the formation of a sunspot surrounded by satellite polarity regions.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.41 no.1
• /
• pp.80.2-81
• /
• 2016

We investigate the dependence of solar proton events (SPEs) on solar and interplanetary type II bursts associated with solar flares and/or CME-driven shocks. For this we consider NOAA solar proton events from 1997 to 2012 and their associated flare, CME, and type II radio burst data with the following subgroups: metric, decameter-hectometric (DH), and meter-to-kilometric (m-to-km) type II bursts. The primary findings of this study are as follows. First, about half (52%) of the m-to-km type II bursts are associated with SPEs and its occurrence rate is higher than those of DH type II bursts (45%) and metric type II bursts (19%). Second, the SPE occurrence rate strongly depends on flare strength and source longitude, especially for X-class flare associated ones; it is the highest in the central region for metric (46%), DH (54%), and m-to-km (75%) subgroups. Third, the SPE occurrence rate is also dependent on CME linear speed and angular width. The highest rates are found in the m-to-km subgroup associated with CME speed 1500 kms-1: partial halo CME (67%) and halo CME (55%). Fourth, in the relationships between SPE peak fluxes and solar eruption parameters (CME linear speed, flare flux, and longitude), SPE peak flux is mostly dependent on SPE peak flux for all three type II bursts (metric, DH, m-to-km). It is noted that the dependence of SPE peak flux on flare peak flux decreases from metric to m-to-km type II burst.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
• /
• v.33 no.3
• /
• pp.82-90
• /
• 2013

Concentration errors critically affect the performance of solar concentrator, so their evaluation is important to the concentrated solar power technology. However, the evaluation is very challenging because error sources are various and not easy to measure individually. Therefore, the integrated effect of concentration errors is often more interesting and useful for large-scale applications. In the present work, we analytically investigate and classify various concentration error sources and then explain that the effect of various concentration errors can be represented in terms of a root mean square value of reflector surface slope error. We present an indirect approach to assessing the reflector surface slope error by comparing solar flux measurement data with modeling calculations. We apply the approach for solar furnaces with different thermal capacity and investigate its advantages and disadvantages.

• Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.30 no.2
• /
• pp.47-51
• /
• 2015

Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs) in cosmic ray intensity observed during the period of 1997-2012 have been studied with energetic solar features and disturbances in solar wind plasma parameters and it is seen that all the GLEs have been found to be associated with coronal mass ejections, hard X-ray solar flares and solar radio bursts. All the GLEs have also been found to be associated with sudden jumps in solar proton flux of energy of ${\geq}60Mev$. A positive correlation with correlation coefficient of 0.48 has been found between the maximum percentage intensity (Imax%) of Ground Level Enhancements and the peak value of solar proton flux of energy (${\geq}60Mev$). All the Ground Level Enhancements have been found to be associated with jumps in solar wind plasma velocity (JSWV) events. A positive correlation with correlation coefficient of 0.43 has been found between the maximum percentage intensity (Imax %) of Ground Level Enhancements and the peak value of solar wind plasma velocity of associated (JSWV) events. All the Ground Level Enhancements have been found to be associated with jumps in solar wind plasma pressure (JSWP) events. A positive correlation with correlation coefficient of 0.67 has been found between the maximum percentage intensity (Imax %) of Ground Level Enhancements and the peak value of solar wind plasma pressure of associated (JSWP) events and of 0.68 between the maximum percentage intensity (Imax %) of Ground Level Enhancements and the magnitude of the jump in solar wind plasma pressure of associated (JSWP) events.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.40 no.1
• /
• pp.64.3-64.3
• /
• 2015

We have developed a set of daily solar flare peak flux forecast models for strong flares using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network methods. We consider input parameters as solar activity data from January 1996 to December 2013 such as sunspot area, X-ray flare peak flux and weighted total flux of previous day, and mean flare rates of McIntosh sunspot group (Zpc) and Mount Wilson magnetic classification. For a training data set, we use the same number of 61 events for each C-, M-, and X-class from Jan. 1996 to Dec. 2004, while other previous models use all flares. For a testing data set, we use all flares from Jan. 2005 to Nov. 2013. The best three parameters related to the observed flare peak flux are weighted total flare flux of previous day (r = 0.51), X-ray flare peak flux (r = 0.48), and Mount Wilson magnetic classification (r = 0.47). A comparison between our neural network models and the previous models based on Heidke Skill Score (HSS) shows that our model for X-class flare is much better than the models and that for M-class flares is similar to them. Since all input parameters for our models are easily available, the models can be operated steadily and automatically in near-real time for space weather service.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.36 no.2
• /
• pp.90.1-90.1
• /
• 2011

We are developing empirical space weather (geomagnetic storms, solar proton events, and solar flares) forecast models based on solar information. These models have been set up with the concept of probabilistic forecast using historical events. Major findings can be summarized as follows. First, we present a concept of storm probability map depending on CME parameters (speed and location). Second, we suggested a new geoeffective CME parameter, earthward direction parameter, directly observable from coronagraph observations, and demonstrated its importance in terms of the forecast of geomagnetic storms. Third, the importance of solar magnetic field orientation for storm occurrence was examined. Fourth, the relationship among coronal hole-CIR-storm relationship has been investigated, Fifth, the CIR forecast based on coronal hole information is possible but the storm forecast is challenging. Sixth, a new solar proton event (flux, strength, and rise time) forecast method depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameter (speed, angular width, and longitude) has been suggested. Seventh, we are examining the rates and probability of solar flares depending on sunspot McIntosh classification and its area change (as a proxy of flux change). Our results show that flux emergence greatly enhances the flare probability, about two times for flare productive sunspot regions.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
• /
• 2009.10a
• /
• pp.37.2-37.2
• /
• 2009

In this study, we present a new empirical forecasting method of solar proton events based on flare parameters. For this we used NOAA solar energetic particle (SEP) events from 1976 to 2006 and their associated X-ray flare data. As a result, we found that about only 3.5% (1.9% for M-class and 21.3% for X-class) of the flares are associated with the proton events. It is also found that this fraction strongly depends on longitude; for example, the fraction for $30W^{\circ}$ < L < $90W^{\circ}$ is about three times larger than that for $30^{\circ}E$ < L < $90^{\circ}E$. The occurrence probability of solar proton events for flares with long duration (> 0.3 hours) is about 2 (X-class flare) to 7 (M-class flare) times larger than that for flares with short duration (< 0.3 hours). The relationship between X-ray flare peak flux and proton peak flux as well as its correlation coefficient are strongly dependent on longitude. Using these results for prediction of proton flux, we divided the data into 6 subgroups depending on two parameters: (1) 3 longitude ranges (east, center, and west) and (2) flare impulsive times (long and short). For each subgroup, we make a linear regression between the X-ray flare peak flux and the corresponding proton peak flux. The result shows that the proton flux in the eastern region is much better correlated with the X-ray flux than that in the western region.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.41 no.1
• /
• pp.46.3-47
• /
• 2016

We construct a solar eruption model with a background solar wind by performing three-dimensional zero-beta magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation. The initial configuration of a magnetic field is given by nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) reconstruction applied to a flux emergence simulation. The background solar wind is driven by upflows imposed at the top boundary. We analyzed the temporal development of the Lorentz force at the flux tube axis. Based on the results, we demonstrate that a solar eruption is caused by the imbalance between magnetic pressure gradient force and magnetic tension force. We conclude that this imbalance is produced by a weak but continuously existing solar wind above an active region.