• Title/Summary/Keyword: small area estimation

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Simultaneous modeling of mean and variance in small area estimation

  • Kim, Myungjin;Kim, Dal Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.1423-1431
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    • 2016
  • When the sample size in a certain domain is too small to produce adequate information, small area model with random effects is usually used. Also, if we do not consider an inherent pattern which data possess, it considerably affects inference. In this paper, we mainly focus on modeling to handle increased variation of the Current Population Survey (CPS) median income as the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) mean income increases. In a hierarchical Bayesian framework, most estimations are carried out through the Gibbs sampler while the grid method is used to generate parameters from non-standard form. Numerical study indicates that the performance of proposed model is better than that of CPS method in terms of four comparison measurements.

Bayesian Curve-Fitting in Semiparametric Small Area Models with Measurement Errors

  • Hwang, Jinseub;Kim, Dal Ho
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.349-359
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    • 2015
  • We study a semiparametric Bayesian approach to small area estimation under a nested error linear regression model with area level covariate subject to measurement error. Consideration is given to radial basis functions for the regression spline and knots on a grid of equally spaced sample quantiles of covariate with measurement errors in the nested error linear regression model setup. We conduct a hierarchical Bayesian structural measurement error model for small areas and prove the propriety of the joint posterior based on a given hierarchical Bayesian framework since some priors are defined non-informative improper priors that uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to fit it. Our methodology is illustrated using numerical examples to compare possible models based on model adequacy criteria; in addition, analysis is conducted based on real data.

Distribution Load Forecasting based with Land-use Estimation (토지용도 추정을 기반으로 한 배전계통 부하예측)

  • Kwon, Seong-Chul;Lee, Hak-Joo;Choi, Byoung-Youn
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1999.07c
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    • pp.1481-1483
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    • 1999
  • Power distribution system planning for maximum customer satisfaction and system efficiency requires accurate forecast of future demand in service area. Spatial load forecasting method provides a more accurate estimation of both magnitudes and location of future electrical load. This method considers the causes of load growth due to addition of customers and per capita consumption among customers by land use (residential, commercial and industrial). So the land-use study and it's preference for small area is quite important. This paper proposes land-use preference estimation method based on fuzzy logic. Fuzzy logic is applied to computing preference scores for each land-use and by these scores the customer growth is allocated in service area. An simulation example is used to illustrate the proposed method.

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A Study on the Estimation of Chungbuk Quarterly GRDP by Using Small Area Estimation (충청북도 분기별 GRDP 추계방안 연구: 소지역 추정법의 적용)

  • 이계오;김윤수;유정빈
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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    • 2001.04a
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    • pp.131-152
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    • 2001
  • In this Era of Information and Localization, Gross Regional Domestic Product(GRDP) is recognized as indispensable informatin to establish regional economic policy. Especially, to raise Chungbuk provinece´s economical independence and to establish effectual regional economic development plans. Chungbuk province needs quarterly estimated GRDP for developing regional economic forecasting system. In this study, utilizing small area estimation is proposed to estimate the quarterly Chungbuk-GRDP provided by the Bureau of Statistics and nation´s GDP provid by the Bank of Korea exists. Moreover, from the nation´s quarterly GDP in each section of economical activity, this study has presumed the quarterly comovement, applied it to subdivide Chungbuk annual GRDP quarterly, and estimated quarterly Chungbuk-GRDP.

Sensitivity analysis of effective imperviousness estimation for small urban watersheds (도시 소유역 유효불투수율의 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Dae Geun;Ko, Young Chan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.181-187
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    • 2009
  • In this study, a runoff hydrograph and runoff volume were calculated by using the kinetic wave theory for small urban watersheds based on the concept of low impact development(LID), and the effective imperviousness was estimated based on these calculations. The degree of sensitivity of the effective imperviousness of small watersheds to the impervious to pervious area ratio, infiltration capability, watershed slope, roughness coefficient and surface storage depth was then analyzed. From this analysis, the following conclusions were obtained: The effective imperviousness and paved area reduction factor decreased as the infiltration capability of pervious area increased. As the slope of watersheds becomes sharper, the effective imperviousness and the paved area reduction factor display an increasing trend. As the roughness coefficient of impervious areas increases, the effective imperviousness and the paved area reduction factor tend to increase. As the storage depth increases, the effective imperviousness and the paved area reduction factor show an upward trend, but the increase is minimal. Under the conditions of this study, it was found that the effective imperviousness is most sensitive to watershed slope, followed by infiltration capability and roughness coefficient, which affect the sensitivity of the effective imperviousness at a similar level, and the storage depth was found to have little influence on the effective imperviousness.

Application of Synthetic Estimator for Estimating Forest Growing Stock Volumes at the Small-Area Level (소면적의 산림축적량 추정을 위한 합성추정법의 적용)

  • Yim, Jong-Su;Han, Won-Sung;Jung, Il-Bin;Kim, Sung-Ho;Shin, Man-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.99 no.3
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    • pp.285-291
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    • 2010
  • Since 2006, the $5^{th}$ National Forest Inventory (NFI) has been implemented to provide forest resources statistics at the national level and at the county level as well. However, it needs a small-area estimator for estimating forest statistics at the county-level due to a small number of samples collected within a county. This study was conducted to evaluate the applicability of a geographical-based synthetic estimator for estimating forest growing stock volumes at the county level. The NFI-field plots surveyed were post-stratified into three forest cover types. In the synthetic estimator, field plots within a geographical-based super-county for each county were used to estimate stratum weights and stratum mean volumes. It was resulted that estimated stratum weights using the synthetic estimation were significantly differ from forest cover maps. The standard errors of estimated mean by the synthetic estimation that ranged from ${\pm}3.5\;m^3$/ha to ${\pm}7.7\;m^3$/ha were more smaller than those (${\pm}7.8\;m^3/ha{\sim}{\pm}24.7\;m^3/ha$) by the direct estimation. This means that the synthetic estimation is possible to provide more precise estimates of mean volumes.

Frequency Estimation Method using Recursive Discrete Wavelet Transform for Fault Disturbance Recorder (FDR를 위한 RDWT에 의한 주파수 추정 기법)

  • Park, Chul-Won;Ban, Yu-Hyeon
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.60 no.8
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    • pp.1492-1501
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    • 2011
  • A wide-area protection intelligent technique has been used to improve a reliability in power systems and to prevent a blackout. Nowadays, voltage and current phasor estimation has been executed by GPS-based synchronized PMU, which has become an important way of wide-area blackout protection for the prevention of expending faults in power systems. As this technique has the difficulties in collecting and sharing of information, there have been used a FNET method for the wide-area intelligent protection. This technique is very useful for the prediction of the inception fault and for the prevention of fault propagation with accurate monitoring frequency and frequency deviation. It consists of FDRs and IMS. It is well known that FNET can detect the dynamic behavior of system and obtain the real-time frequency information. Therefore, FDRs must adopt a optimal frequency estimation method that is robust to noise and fault. In this paper, we present comparative studies for the frequency estimation method using IRDWT(improved recursive discrete wavelet transform), for the frequency estimation method using FRDWT(fast recursive discrete wavelet transform). we used the Republic of Korea 345kV power system modeling data by EMTP-RV. The user-defined arbitrary waveforms were used in order to evaluate the performance of the proposed two kinds of RDWT. Also, the frequency variation data in various range, both large range and small range, were used for simulation. The simulation results showed that the proposed frequency estimation technique using FRDWT can be the optimal frequency measurement method applied to FDRs.

A Generalized Model on the Estimation of the Long - term Run - off Volume - with Special Reference to small and Medium Sized Catchment Areas- (장기만연속수수량추정모형의 실용화 연구 -우리나라 중소유역을 대상으로-)

  • 임병현
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.27-43
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    • 1990
  • This study aimed at developing a generalized model on the estimation of the long - term run - off volume for practical purpose. During the research period of last 3 years( 1986-1988), 3 types of estimation model on the long - term run - off volume(Effective rainfall model, unit hydrograph model and barne's model for dry season) had been developed by the author. In this study, through regressional analysis between determinant factors (bi of effective rainfall model, ai of unit hydrograph model and Wi of barne's model) and catchment characteris- tics(catchment area, distance round the catchment area, massing degree coefficient, river - exte- nsion, river - slope, river - density, infiltration of Watershed) of 11 test case areas by multiple regressional method, a new methodology on the derivation of determinant factors from catchment characteristics in the watershed areas having no hydrological station was developed. Therefore, in the resulting step, estimation equations on run - off volume for practical purpose of which input facor is only rainfall were developed. In the next stage, the derived equations were applied on the Kang - and Namgye - river catchment areas for checking of their goodness. The test results were as follows ; 1. In Kang - river area, average relative estimation errors of 72 hydrographs and of continuous daily run - off volume for 245 days( 1/5/1982 - 31/12) were calculated as 6.09%, 9.58% respectively. 2. In Namgye - river area, average relative estimation errors of 65 hydrographs and of conti- nuous daily run - off volume for 2fl days(5/4/1980-31/12) were 5.68%, 10.5% respectively. In both cases, relative estimation error was averaged as 7.96%, and so, the methodology in this study might be hetter organized than Kaziyama's formula when comparing with the relative error of the latter, 24~54%. However, two case studies cannot be the base materials enough for the full generalization of the model. So, in the future studies, many test case studies of this model should he carries out in the various catchment areas for making its generalization.

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Estimation of Surface Color with Use of Subjective Feeling: On the Influence of Contrast by Complementary Color

  • Sakamoto, Kazuyoshi;Wada, Mitsuyoshi;Min, Byung-Chan
    • Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.73-78
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    • 2002
  • The unique colors of paper, that is, blue, green, red, and yellow were used in the estimation of color from the subjective feeling. The monochrome with unique color or the unique color surrounded with the background color was presented. subject gazed the monochrome or the unique color, which was tailed target rotor. The target and background color were the complementary color each other. The various ratios of the area of gazed color and background were taken. Subject answered the level of subjective feeling consisted of pair of adjective items for unique color presented. With the use of the subjective feeling for the target color presented, the estimation of the unique color was cai\ulcornerlied out due to Fuzzy theory and neural networks. The results of color difference between unique color presented and the estimated color gave very small value for the case without background, while the results of the case with background color depended on the ratio of area of presented color and background color till the ration of 2:1, The relation showed the Kirschman's law, The color difference saturated In the increase of area of background with the ratio more than 2:1.

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