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A Study on the Development of Stress Testing Model for Korean Banks: Optimal Design of Monte Carlo Simulation and BIS Forecasting (국내은행 스트레스테스트 모형개선에 관한 연구: 최적 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 탐색과 BIS예측을 중심으로)

  • Chaehwan Won;Jinyul Yang
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.149-169
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - The main purpose of this study is to develop the stress test model for Korean banks by exploring the optimal Monte Carlo simulation and BIS forecasting model. Design/methodology/approach - This study selects 15 Korean banks as sample financial firms and collects relevant 76 quarterly data for the period between year 2000 and 2018 from KRX(Korea Excange), Bank of Korea, and FnGuide. The Regression analysis, Unit-root test, and Monte Carlo simulation are hired to analyze the data. Findings - First, most of the sample banks failed to keep 8% BIS ratio for the adverse and severely Adverse Scenarios, implying that Korean banks must make every effort to realize better BIS ratios under adverse market conditions. Second, we suggest the better Monte Carlo simulation model for the Korean banks by finding that the more appropriate volatility should be different depending on variables rather than simple two-sigma which has been used in the previous studies. Third, we find that the stepwise regression model is better fitted than simple regression model in forecasting macro-economic variables for the BIS variables. Fourth, we find that, for the more robust and significant statistical results in designing stress tests, Korean banks are required to construct more valid time-series and cross-sectional data-base. Research implications or Originality - The above results all together show that the optimal volatility in designing optimal Monte Carlo simulation varies depending on the country, and many Korean banks fail to pass sress test under the adverse and severely adverse scenarios, implying that Korean banks need to make improvement in the BIS ratio.

Short-term Construction Investment Forecasting Model in Korea (건설투자(建設投資)의 단기예측모형(短期豫測模型) 비교(比較))

  • Kim, Kwan-young;Lee, Chang-soo
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.121-145
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    • 1992
  • This paper examines characteristics of time series data related to the construction investment(stationarity and time series components such as secular trend, cyclical fluctuation, seasonal variation, and random change) and surveys predictibility, fitness, and explicability of independent variables of various models to build a short-term construction investment forecasting model suitable for current economic circumstances. Unit root test, autocorrelation coefficient and spectral density function analysis show that related time series data do not have unit roots, fluctuate cyclically, and are largely explicated by lagged variables. Moreover it is very important for the short-term construction investment forecasting to grasp time lag relation between construction investment series and leading indicators such as building construction permits and value of construction orders received. In chapter 3, we explicate 7 forecasting models; Univariate time series model (ARIMA and multiplicative linear trend model), multivariate time series model using leading indicators (1st order autoregressive model, vector autoregressive model and error correction model) and multivariate time series model using National Accounts data (simple reduced form model disconnected from simultaneous macroeconomic model and VAR model). These models are examined by 4 statistical tools that are average absolute error, root mean square error, adjusted coefficient of determination, and Durbin-Watson statistic. This analysis proves two facts. First, multivariate models are more suitable than univariate models in the point that forecasting error of multivariate models tend to decrease in contrast to the case of latter. Second, VAR model is superior than any other multivariate models; average absolute prediction error and root mean square error of VAR model are quitely low and adjusted coefficient of determination is higher. This conclusion is reasonable when we consider current construction investment has sustained overheating growth more than secular trend.

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Discrimination of Angelicae Radix Based on Anatomical Characters (당귀의 해부형태학적 특징에 따른 기원판별)

  • Sung, Jung-Sook;Bang, Kyong-Hwan;Park, Chung-Heon;Park, Chun-Geon;Yu, Hong-Seob;Park, Hee-Woon;Seong, Nak-Sul
    • Korean Journal of Medicinal Crop Science
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.67-72
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    • 2004
  • For discrimination the origins and the commercial herb medicines of three Angelicae Radixes (Danggui), anatomical characters of leaves, petioles, and root cross-section were investigated and those were compared each other. The key for discrimination of these herb medicines was made by below simple characters: development of periderm, absent and present of collenchyma under the periderm, and distribution of latex tube in cortex. The result of discrimination for the commercial herb medicines based on the discrimination key, Angelicae gjgantis Radix (Angelica Gigas Root), Angelicae Radix (Japanese Angelica Root), and Radix Angelicae Sinensis (Danggui) were correctly identified for Angelica gigas Nakai, A acutiloba Kitagawa, and Angelica sinensis (Oliv.) Diels., respectively. Consequently, anatomical characters could be utilized for useful method to discriminate three Angelicae Radixes (Danggui).

EFFECT OF LIGHT INTENSITY ON THE POLYMERIZATION RATE OF COMPOSITE RESIN USING REAL-TIME MEASUREMENT OF VOLUMETRIC CHANCE (광조사 강도가 복합레진의 중합반응속도에 미치는 영향에 관한 실시간 체적측정법을 이용한 연구)

  • La, Sung-Ho;Lee, In-Bog;Kim, Chang-Keun;Cho, Byeong-Hoon;Lee, Kwang-Won;Son, Ho-Hyun
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.135-141
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    • 2002
  • Objectives : The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of light intensity variation on the polymerization rate of composite resin using IB system (the experimental equipment designed by Dr. IB Lee) by which real-time volumetric change of composite can be measured. Methods : Three commercial composite resins [Z100(Z1), AeliteFil(AF), SureFil(SF)] were photopolymerized with Variable Intensity Polymerizer unit (Bisco, U.S.A.) under the variable light intensity (75/150/225/300/375/450mW$^2$) during 20 sec. Polymerization shrinkage of samples was detected continuously by IB system during 110 sec and the rate of polymerization shrinkage was obtained by its shrinkage data. Peak time(P.T.) showing the maximum rate of polymerization shrinkage was used to compare the polymerization rate. Results : Peak time decreased with increasing light intensity(p<0.05). Maximum rate of polymerization shrinkage increased with increasing light intensity(p<0.05). Statistical analysis revealed a significant positive correlation between peak time and inverse square root of the light intensity (AF:R=0.965, Zl:R=0.974, SF:R=0.927). Statistical analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between the maximum rate of polymerization shrinkage and peak time(AF:R=-0.933, Zl:R=-0.892, SF:R=-0.883), and a significant positive correlation between the maximum rate of polymerization shrinkage and square root of the light intensity (AF:R=0.988, Zl:R=0.974, SF:R=0.946). Discussion and Conclusions : The polymerization rate of composite resins used in this study was proportional to the square root of light intensity Maximum rate of polymerization shrinkage as well as peak time can be used to compare the polymerization rate. Real-time volume method using IB system can be a simple alternative method to obtain the polymerization rate of composite resins.

Free Amino Acid Composition of Tap Root in Panax species (종별 동체 유리아미노산)

  • Lee, Mee-Kyoung;Park, Hoon
    • Journal of Ginseng Research
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.291-298
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    • 1996
  • Free amino acid (FAA) compositions in the central part (pith-xylem : P-X) and the outer part (phloem-cortex : P-C) of root were investigated for P ginseng (P.g), p. quinque-folium (P.q) an, B P nutoginsen (P.n) by an amino acid analyzer. Total free amlno acids content (TFAA) was highest in p.맥 and lowest in p.n. The TFAA of P-Xs were higher than those of P-Cs in these Panax species except p.n. The higher the TFAA in P-X, the higher the ratio of TFAA in P-X to that in P-C. Seven- teen free amino acids and ammonia were identified, and four unknown peaks appeared before the usual amino acids eluted. The total aspartic acid equivalent of these unknown peaks was corresponded to 77% of known TFAA in P-C of p.n, 17% in P. n, and 7% in p.q. The pattern of unknown peaks of p.g was different from p.q and similar to P.n. In all samples six major amino acids and ammonia accounted for 90~95% of TFAA. Arginine was comprised from 29% (P.n) to 43% (P.g) by amole as amino acid and from 50 to 71% by amole as nitrogen (N amole) in TFAA. Ammonia was the second abundant one by amole and the third by Npmole. Histidine was the second by Npmole. Praline was one of major FAA in p.q. Pattern similarity of FAA composition (excluding Arg and Am) by simple correlation was closer between P-C of p.g and P-X of p.q than between both P-Xs and quite different between the P-X of p.g and that of p.n. The pattern similarities of major FAA percent abundance excluding Arg and Am were significant only between P-X and P-C of the same species. Arginine content (amole) had positive correlation (r=0.859, p=0.05) with Arg/Am among species. Ammonia content was higher than arginine in p.n. Tryptophan content was greatest in p.n among species and higher than lysine only in p.n. The ratios of TFAA to N(W/W) were in the range of 3.89~4.14 for TFAA and 3.61~3.92 for TFAA plus ammonia.

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High frequency direct plant regeneration from leaf, internode, and root segments of Eastern Cottonwood (Populus deltoides)

  • Yadav, Rakesh;Arora, Pooja;Kumar, Dharmendar;Katyal, Dinesh;Dilbaghi, Neeraj;Chaudhury, Ashok
    • Plant Biotechnology Reports
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.175-182
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    • 2009
  • Simple, reproducible, high frequency, improved plant regeneration protocol in Eastern Cottonwood (Populus deltoides) clones, WIMCO199 and L34, has been reported. Initially, aseptic cultures established from axillary buds of nodal segments from mature plus trees on MS liquid medium supplemented with $0.25mg\;1^{-1}$ KIN and $0.25mg\;1^{-1}$ IAA. Nodal and internodal segments were found to be extra-prolific over shoot apices during course of aseptic culture establishment, while $0.25mg\;1^{-1}$ KIN concentration played a stimulatory role in high frequency plant regeneration. Diverse explants, such as various leaf segments, internodes, and roots from in vitro raised cultures, were employed. Direct plant regeneration was at high frequency of 92% in internodes, 88% in leaf segments, and 43% in root segments. This led to the formation of multiple shoot clusters on established culture media with rapid proliferation rates. Many-fold enhanced shoot elongation and growth of the clusters could be achieved on liquid MS medium supplemented with borosilicate glass beads, which offer physical support for proliferating shoots leading to faster growth in comparison to semi-solid agar or direct liquid medium. SEM examination of initial cultures confirmed direct plant regeneration events without intervening calli. In vitro regenerated plants induced roots on half-strength MS medium with $0.15mg\;1^{-1}$ IAA. Rooted 5- to 6-week-old in vitro regenerated plants were transferred into a transgenic greenhouse in pots containing 1:1 mixture of vermicompost and soil at $27{\pm}2^{\circ}C$ for hardening and acclimatization. 14- to 15-week-old well-established hardened plants were transplanted to the field and grown to maturity. The mature in vitro raised poplar trees exhibited a high survival rate of 85%; 4-year-old healthy trees attained an average height of 8 m and an average trunk diameter of 25 cm and have performed well under field conditions. The regeneration protocol presented here will be very useful for undertaking genetic manipulation, providing a value addition to Eastern Cottonwood propagation in future.

CHEMICAL INVESTIGATION ON THE REACTION BETWEEN CALCIUM HYDROXIDE INTRACANAL MEDICAMENT AND ZINC OXIDE-EUGENOL (수산화칼슘 근관약제와 산화아연-유지놀의 반응에 관한 화학적 분석)

  • Park, Sook-Hyung;Park, Joon-Chol;Kim, Sung-Kyo
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.272-288
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    • 2000
  • Calcium hydroxide is used as a root canal medicament with its several pharmacological effects. However, it has been known that the usage of calcium hydroxide in the root canal system before canal filling with gutta-percha and zinc oxide eugenol-based cement induced change in the properties of root canal cement which might adversely affect sealing ability of the canal filling. The purpose of this study was to identify the reactivity of calcium hydroxide-eugenol compound made from chemical interaction of between calcium hydroxide and zinc oxide eugenol. Chemical properties of calcium hydroxide, eugenol, zinc oxide eugenol, calcium hydroxide-eugenol and calcium hydroxide-zinc oxide eugenol compound were analyzed using XRD. FT-IR Spectrophotometer and FT-NMR Spectrometer. The results were as follows: 1. The compound made from interaction between calcium hydroxide and zinc oxide eugenol was as follows : 2. Calcium hydroxide was shown to make chemical bond (ionic bond) with eugenol. 3. Since bonding between $Ca^{2+}$ and eugenol is simple ionic nature, under water existence, calcium hydroxide-eugenol compound may be ionized easily and its physical property be deteriorated.

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In vitro micropropagation of M.26 (Malus pumila Mill) apple rootstock and assessment of the genetic diversity of proliferated plantlets using simple sequence repeat markers (사과 대목 M.26 (Malus pumila Mill)의 기내 대량번식 및 simple sequence repeat 마커를 이용한 증식된 식물체의 유전적 다양성 평가)

  • Cho, Kang Hee;Han, Bong Hee;Han, Jeom Hwa;Park, Seo Jun;Kim, Se Hee;Lee, Han Chan;Kim, Mi Young;Kim, Myung-Su
    • Journal of Plant Biotechnology
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.382-391
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study was to determine the most effective medium condition of shoot proliferation and root formation for the efficient in vitro micropropagation of M.26 (Malus pumila Mill). Simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers were used to analyze the genetic diversity of micro-propagated and greenhouse grown M.26. Shoot proliferation was carried out in MS (Murashige and Skoog) containing benzyladenin (BA, $0.5{\sim}5.0mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$) and thidiazuron (TDZ, $0.01{\sim}0.1mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$). The highest number of shoots (10.67 shoots per explant) was induced by adding BA at a concentration $1.0mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$. TDZ treatments caused higher hyperhydricity rate in cultured explants than in BA treatments. There was no significant effect of both BA and auxin on shoot proliferation, and the optimum proliferation medium for M.26 was MS medium containing $1.0mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$ BA. To find a suitable medium composition for shoot rooting, we tested different concentrations indole-3-butyric acid (IBA) and ${\alpha}$-naphthaleneacetic acid ($0.5{\sim}5.0mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$), MS medium (1/4-1), sucrose ($0{\sim}30g{\cdot}L^{-1}$). The shoots showed good rooting on half-strength MS medium containing $1.0mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$ IBA and $15-20g{\cdot}L^{-1}$ sucrose. The rooting rate (100%), number of roots (10.45 ~ 13.60 roots per explant), root length (7.41 ~ 8.33 cm), and shoot length (4.93 ~ 5.38 cm) were good on this medium. Fifteen SSR primers were detected in a total of 30 alleles in 20 micro-propagated plantlets, all SSR profiles from micro-propagated plantlets were monomorphic and similar to greenhouse grown control plantlet M.26 plant. The results indicated that M.26 micro-propagated plantlets were genetically stable.

Comparative Evaluation among Different Kriging Techniques applied to GOSAT CO2 Map for North East Asia (GOSAT 기반의 동북아시아 CO2 분포도에 적용된 크리깅 기법의 비교평가)

  • Choi, Jin Ho;Um, Jung-Sup
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.879-890
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    • 2011
  • The GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) data provide new opportunities the most regionally complete and up-to-date assessment of $CO_2$. However, in practice, GOSAT records often suffer from missing data values mainly due to unfavorable meteorological condition in specific time periods of data acquisition. The aim of this research was to identify optimal spatial interpolation techniques to ensure the continuity of $CO_2$ from samples taken in the North East Asia. The accuracy among ordinary kriging (OK), universal kriging (UK) and simple kriging (SK) was compared based on the combined consideration of $R^2$ values, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Error (ME) for variogram models. Cross validation for 1312 random sampling points indicate that the (UK) kriging is the best geostatistical method for spatial predictions of $CO_2$ in the East Asia region. The results from this study can be useful for selecting optimal kriging algorithm to produce $CO_2$ map of various landscapes. Also, data users may benefit from a statistical approach that would allow them to better understand the uncertainty and limitations of the GOSAT sample data.

Precise Orbit Determination of GRACE-A Satellite with Kinematic GPS PPP

  • Choi, Byung-Kyu;Roh, Kyoung-Min;Yoo, Sung-Moon;Jo, Jung-Hyun;Lee, Sang-Jeong
    • Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.59-64
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    • 2012
  • Precise Point Positioning (PPP) has been widely used in navigation and orbit determination applications as we can obtain precise Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite orbit and clock products. Kinematic PPP, which is based on the GPS measurements only from the spaceborne GPS receiver, has some advantages for a simple precise orbit determination (POD). In this study, we developed kinematic PPP technique to estimate the orbits of GRACE-A satellite. The comparison of the mean position between the JPL's orbit product and our results showed the orbit differences 0.18 cm, 0.54 cm, and 0.98 cm in the Radial, in Along-track, and Cross-track direction respectively. In addition, we obtained the root mean square (rms) values of 4.06 cm, 3.90 cm, and 3.23 cm in the satellite coordinate components relative to the known coordinates.