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Forecasting Korean CPI Inflation (우리나라 소비자물가상승률 예측)

  • Kang, Kyu Ho;Kim, Jungsung;Shin, Serim
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.1-42
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    • 2021
  • The outlook for Korea's consumer price inflation rate has a profound impact not only on the Bank of Korea's operation of the inflation target system but also on the overall economy, including the bond market and private consumption and investment. This study presents the prediction results of consumer price inflation in Korea for the next three years. To this end, first, model selection is performed based on the out-of-sample predictive power of autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, AR models, small-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models, and large-scale VAR models. Since there are many potential predictors of inflation, a Bayesian variable selection technique was introduced for 12 macro variables, and a precise tuning process was performed to improve predictive power. In the case of the VAR model, the Minnesota prior distribution was applied to solve the dimensional curse problem. Looking at the results of long-term and short-term out-of-sample predictions for the last five years, the ADL model was generally superior to other competing models in both point and distribution prediction. As a result of forecasting through the combination of predictions from the above models, the inflation rate is expected to maintain the current level of around 2% until the second half of 2022, and is expected to drop to around 1% from the first half of 2023.

Understanding the Effects of Deep Fertilization on Upland Crop Cultivation and Ammonia Emissions using a Newly Developed Deep Fertilization Device (신개발 심층시비장치를 이용한 심층시비의 밭작물 재배 효과)

  • Sung-Chang Hong;Min-Wook Kim;Jin-Ho Kim;Seong-Jik Park
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.28-34
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    • 2023
  • Nitrogen fertilizers applied to agricultural lands for crop cultivation can be volatilized as ammonia. The released ammonia can catalyze the formation of ultrafine dust (particulate matter, PM2.5), classified as a short-lived climate change pollutant, in the atmosphere. Currently, one of the prominent methods for fertilizer application in agricultural lands is soil surface application, which comprises spraying the fertilizers onto the soil surface, followed by mixing the fertilizers with the soil. Owing to the low nitrogen absorption rate of crops, when nitrogen fertilizers are applied in this manner, they can be lost from land surfaces through volatilization. Therefore, investigating a new fertilization method to reduce ammonia emissions and increase the fertilizer utilization efficiency of crops is necessary. In this study, to develop a method for reducing ammonia emissions from nitrogen fertilizers applied to soil surfaces, deep fertilization was conducted using a newly developed deep fertilization device, and ammonia emissions from barley, garlic, and onion fields were examined. Conventional fertilization (surface application) and deep fertilization (soil depth of 25 cm) were conducted for analysis. The fertilization rate was 100% of the standard fertilization rate used for barley, and deep fertilization of N, P, and K fertilizers was implemented. Ammonia emissions were collected using a wind tunnel chamber, and quantified subsequently susing the indole-phenol blue method. Ammonia emissions released from the basal fertilizer application persisted for approximately 58 d, beginning from approximately 3 d after fertilization in conventional treatments; however, ammonia was not released from deep fertilization. Moreover, barley, garlic, and onion yields were higher in the deep fertilization treatment than in the conventional fertilization treatment. In conclusion, a new fertilization method was identified as an alternative to the current approach of spraying fertilizers on the soil surface. This new method, which involves injecting nitrogen fertilizers at a soil depth of 25 cm, has the potential to reduce ammonia emissions and increase the yields of barley, garlic, and onion.

Helmholtz Coil and Performance of Magnetic Compass (인공자장발생장치와 자기 컴퍼스의 성능)

  • Ahn, Young-wha;Jeong, Kong-heun;Ahn, Jang-young;Sin, Hyeong-il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.111-116
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    • 1983
  • In order to furnish the fundamental data for the domestic production of magnetic compass and the prescription of standardization about it in Korea, authors made the helmholtz coil and investigated the characteristics of them. Subsequently, the damping curves of T190 and T165 compasses in the helmholtz coil were measured and analyzed the performance of those compass. The results obtained are as follows; 1. The relation between electric current (I sub I) to flow in the helmholtz coils, that the thickness of coil is 1mm, diameter 1m, winding number 117, and intensity of magnetic field is presented as follows. Vertical magnetic force: Z(Gauss)=0.34+1.506 I sub(i) Horizontal magnetic force: H(Gauss)=0.183+1.506 I sub(i) 2. Period of T190 compass is longer than T165 compass in all horizontal magnetic force. In the amplitude, the former is larger than the latter above 0.08 Gauss, but this phenomenon is opposed to that below 0.08 Gauss. 3. As the porizontal magnetic force is intensive, period of magnetic compass is short, amplitude is large, and damping degree and damping factor are small. The time elapsed to the principal points of damping curve is proportional to the -0.65 power of the horizontal magnetic force.

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Relationships among Organizational Commitment, Job Satisfaction, and Learning Organization Culture in One Korean Private Organization

  • LIM, Taejo
    • Educational Technology International
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.17-39
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to identify the relationships among organizational commitment, job satisfaction, and learning organization culture. This study was conducted in five sub-organizations of one Korean conglomerate company. One thousand employees were randomly and proportionately selected, with 669 useable cases obtained, for a response rate of 67%. The organizational commitment instrument used from the "affective, continuance, and normative commitment" scale (ACNCS) of Allen and Meyer (1990). The "Dimensions of Learning Organization Questionnaire" of Watkins and Marsick (1997) was used to measure learning organization culture. The short form MSQ (Minnesota Satisfaction Questionnaire), developed by Weiss, Dawis, England, and Lofquist (1967), was the third instrument used. Descriptive statistics, correlational statistics, and inferential statistics (ANOVA and t-tests) were used. Organizational commitment (except for continuance) is moderately and positively related to job satisfaction and moderately and positively related to learning organization culture. In addition, learning organization culture is weakly to moderately and positively related to job satisfaction. No differences by age were found. Four-year college graduates are more likely to have higher creating continuous learning opportunities in learning organization culture than graduate school degree holders. Males are likely to have higher affective and continuance organizational commitment than females. Employees working in R&D, Engineering, and Manufacturing (REM) are likely to have higher continuance organizational commitment than do other types of jobs. Employees are more likely to have higher learning organization culture and job satisfaction than assistant managers. Assistant managers have higher continuance organizational commitment than managers. Managers generally have higher organizational commitment, learning organization culture, job satisfaction than assistant managers. They also have higher learning organization culture than employees. Employees who had worked for less than four years in their current job and organization have higher promoting inquiry and dialogue in learning organization culture than those who have worked for ten years or more. Employees in the insurance organization have higher affective organizational commitment, learning organization culture, and job satisfaction than those of the other organizations. Finally, employees of the electronic company have higher continuance organizational commitment in learning organization culture than those of other companies. In summary, this research enables CEOs and HRD and HRM practitioners to view organizational commitment, learning organization culture, and job satisfaction as important variables in exploring diverse ranges of topics related to the workplace. And then, they can diversely apply their management, interventions and practices to fit these diverse characteristics.

An Analysis of the Rice Situation in Nicaragua for Improving National Production.

  • Chang-Min Lee;Oporta Juan;Ho-Ki Park;Hyun-Su Park;Jeonghwan Seo;Man-Kee Baek;Jae-Ryoung Park;O-Young Jeong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2022.10a
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    • pp.90-90
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    • 2022
  • Nicaragua is located in Central America, climatic conditions are considered tropical dry forest. Statistics reflex that in Nicaragua exits 24,000 rice farmers. National rice production only covers 73% of the national consumption. It exists two sowing system: irrigation and rainfed. Varieties used in both systems are mid-late maturity (120-135 days), there are 14 released varieties for irrigation, eight for rainfed, and eight landraces used in rainfed. The current breeding system (introduction of lines from Colombia) has increased the national production, however, has some limitation due to the lack of enough variability, reducing the proability of finding good genotypes and therefore the possibility of satisfying 100% of the demand. The purpose of this study was to analyze the problems that must be resolved in the short and long term to improve rice productivity in Nicaragua. In this paper we explain some proposal for an improvement plan. The selection of varieties with high adaptability to various cultivation environmental conditions it is necessary, also to thoroughly manage seed purity to supply certified seeds. In rice cultivation technology, it needs to improve seedling standing and weeding effect by improving soil leveling and water-saving cultivation technology. Also, proper fertilization and planting density must be established in irrigated and rain-fed areas. Furthermore, capacity must be strengthened by collecting and training with the most recent agricultural technology information, as well as by revitalizing the union rather than the individual farmer. It is necessary to develop varieties highly adaptable to the Nicaraguan cultivation environment, as well as to expand irrigation facilities and cultivation technology suitable for weather conditions in rain-fed areas. Last, it is necessary to maintain the consistency of agricultural policy for continuous and stable rice production in response to climate change events such as drought or intermittent heavy rain.

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An Inquiry into Dynamics of Global Power Politics in the changing world order after the war in Ukraine

  • Jae-kwan Kim
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.1-26
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    • 2023
  • This article will analyze and forecast important variables and dynamics in global power politics after the war in Ukraine. It tries to use several perspectives to analyze international relations, particularly liberal internationalism and structural realism. In short, core variables are as follows; First, how is the US-led liberal international order and globalization being adjusted? Second, how will the U.S.-China strategic competition, which is the biggest and structural variable, cause changes in the international order in the future? The third variable, how stable are Sino-Russia relations in the context of a structuring U.S.-China-Russia strategic new triangle? Fourth, to what extent will third middle hedging states outside the U.S. and China be able to exercise strategic autonomy in the face of multipolarization? To summarize, the first of these four variables is the largest basic variable at the global political and economic level in terms of its impact on the international community, and it has been led by the United States. The second variable, in terms of actors, seems to be the most influential structural variable in global competition, and the US-China strategic competition is likely to be a long game. Thus the world will not be able to escape the influence of the competition between the two global powers. For South Korea, this second variable is probably the biggest external variable and dilemma. The third variable, the stability of Sino-Russia relations, determines balance of global power in the 21st century. The U.S.-China-Russia strategic new triangle, as seen in the current war in Ukraine, will operate as the greatest power variable in not only global power competition but also changes in the international order. Just as the U.S. is eager for a Sino-Russia fragmentation strategy, such as a Tito-style wedge policy to manage balance of power in the early years of the Cold War, it needs a reverse Kissinger strategy to reset the U.S.-Russia relationship, in order to push for a Sino-Russia splitting in the 21st century. But with the war in Ukraine, it seems that this fragmentation strategy has already been broken. In the context of Northeast Asia, whether or not the stability of Sino-Russia relations depends not only on the United States, but also on the Korean Peninsula. Finally, the fourth variable is a dependent variable that emerged as a result of the interaction of the above three variables, but simultaneously it remains to be seen that this variable is likely to act as the most dynamic and independent variable that can promote multilateralism, multipolarization, and pan-regionalism of the global international community in the future. Taking into account these four variables together, we can make an outlook on the change in the international order.

A Study on Web Records Management Process (웹기록물 관리 프로세스 연구)

  • Dohee Kim;Moonsoo Hyun;Seo Young Bai;Jihee Park;Jihyun Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Archives and Records Management
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.201-226
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to develop a web records management process for public institutions and define the roles of agents in task execution. First, web records' concept and management environment across 17 domestic and international institutions were examined, and web archiving professionals were interviewed to investigate the current status of the environment, policies, and systems related to web record management. Then, a web records life-cycle management process was formulated to create a web records management framework applicable to domestic institutions. This process was classified into short-term, medium-to-long-term, and medium-to-long-term, with additional consideration plans designed to strengthen the web records management capabilities of public institutions from a long-term perspective. Third, the roles of agents in web records management, including the processing department, archivist, and permanent records management organization, are presented to establish a working foundation for the web record management process. Finally, the study's result can be used to build a process that reflects the practice of web records management or establish policies and systems related to web records management.

Impact Analysis of Abolition of Royalty on Non-fungible Tokens Market (로열티 폐지가 대체 불가능 토큰 시장에 미치는 영향분석)

  • Eun Mi Lee
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.365-370
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    • 2023
  • Royalty contributed to the development of the non-fungible token (NFT) ecosystem as a reward system that pays a portion of the sales to the creator whenever transactions occur. This study quantitatively analyzes the impact of the abolition of royalties, which is being expanded by some NFT marketplaces, on the NFT market, and qualitatively analyzes the results of the impact. The analysis results are as follows. First, the number of NFT mints is decreasing by causing creators to leave the NFT market and reducing new entry. Second, major NFT projects have refused to trade with marketplaces that have abolished royalties, leading to a decrease in the number of transactions. Third, the abolition of royalties has undermined the motivation of NFT creators to continue to develop their projects, leading to a drop in NFT floor prices. This study is expected to contribute to reducing the current negative impact in the short term by suggesting how the NFT community provides incentives to owners who voluntarily pay royalties independently of the policy of the NFT marketplace. In addition, it suggests that in the long run, fundamental solutions to the problem of abolishing royalties require improvements in technology related to royalty payments, cooperation between NFT marketplaces and NFT creators, and institutional support related to royalties.

Evaluation of the Dynamic Behavior of Inclined Tripod Micropiles Using Dynamic Centrifuge Test (원심모형실험을 이용한 그룹 삼축 마이크로파일의 동적거동 평가)

  • Kim, Yoon-Ah;Kwon, Tae-Hyuk;Kim, Jongkwan;Han, Jin-Tae;Kim, Jae-Hyun;An, Sung-Yul
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.39 no.12
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2023
  • Despite recent modifications to building structural standards emphasizing the seismic stability of building foundations, the current design focus remains solely on vertical support, resulting in insufficient consideration of horizontal loads during earthquakes. In this study, we evaluated the dynamic behavior of inclined tripod micropiles (ITMP), which provide additional seismic resistance against horizontal and vertical loads during earthquakes. A comparison of the dynamic characteristics, such as acceleration, displacement, bending moment, and axial force, of ITMP with a 15° installation angle and normal vertical micropiles with a 0° installation angle was performed using dynamic centrifuge model tests. Results show that under moderate seismic loads, the proposed ITMP exhibited lower acceleration responses than the vertical micropiles. However, when subjected to a long-period strong seismic excitation, such as sine (2 Hz), ITMP showed greater responses than the vertical micropiles in terms of acceleration and settlement. These results indicate that the use of ITMP reduces the amplif ication of short-period (high-f requency) contents compared with the use of vertical micropiles. Therefore, ITMP can be used to enhance seismic performance of structures.

A Study on the Stability of Slopes Reinforced with Panel-Type Retaining Walls (대절토부 사면의 패널식 옹벽보강에 따른 안정성 검토)

  • Dong-wook Choi;Jun-o Park;Daehyeon Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2024
  • Various innovative technologies and methods are being applied to ensure the stability of steep rock slopes. However, there are design limitations concerning site ground conditions, leading to discrepancies between the designed and actual ground conditions during construction. In the case of the retaining wall in Yeosu, where the study area is located, although the construction of a 5-stage retaining wall is planned, at the current completion of the second stage, cracks on the upper part of the wall, settlement in the front of the wall, and seepage have been observed. After the completion of stages one and two, issues regarding cracks and settlement on the upper part of the wall and seepage in the front of the wall were discovered. Thus, there was a need to reevaluate the results of the existing stability assessment. It was confirmed that the issue was due to groundwater leakage, attributed to the lack of clear assessment of the colluvial soil layer during the initial design stage. Therefore, to conservatively reflect groundwater level conditions, a groundwater level contour was positioned at the top of the wall to conduct a slope stability assessment. The assessment results indicated that the safety factor during the rainy season exceeded the required value of 1.3, with a calculated safety factor of 1.31. However, during seismic events, the safety factor was determined to be 1.12, falling short of the required safety factor of 1.3. Therefore, it is suggested that the existing retaining walls constructed during stages one and two undergo reinforcement using methods such as micro-piles with grouting, and additional work should be carried out to ensure a clear assessment of the colluvial soil layer.