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Export Prediction Using Separated Learning Method and Recommendation of Potential Export Countries (분리학습 모델을 이용한 수출액 예측 및 수출 유망국가 추천)

  • Jang, Yeongjin;Won, Jongkwan;Lee, Chaerok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.69-88
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    • 2022
  • One of the characteristics of South Korea's economic structure is that it is highly dependent on exports. Thus, many businesses are closely related to the global economy and diplomatic situation. In addition, small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) specialized in exporting are struggling due to the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model to forecast exports for next year to support SMEs' export strategy and decision making. Also, this study proposed a strategy to recommend promising export countries of each item based on the forecasting model. We analyzed important variables used in previous studies such as country-specific, item-specific, and macro-economic variables and collected those variables to train our prediction model. Next, through the exploratory data analysis(EDA) it was found that exports, which is a target variable, have a highly skewed distribution. To deal with this issue and improve predictive performance, we suggest a separated learning method. In a separated learning method, the whole dataset is divided into homogeneous subgroups and a prediction algorithm is applied to each group. Thus, characteristics of each group can be more precisely trained using different input variables and algorithms. In this study, we divided the dataset into five subgroups based on the exports to decrease skewness of the target variable. After the separation, we found that each group has different characteristics in countries and goods. For example, In Group 1, most of the exporting countries are developing countries and the majority of exporting goods are low value products such as glass and prints. On the other hand, major exporting countries of South Korea such as China, USA, and Vietnam are included in Group 4 and Group 5 and most exporting goods in these groups are high value products. Then we used LightGBM(LGBM) and Exponential Moving Average(EMA) for prediction. Considering the characteristics of each group, models were built using LGBM for Group 1 to 4 and EMA for Group 5. To evaluate the performance of the model, we compare different model structures and algorithms. As a result, it was found that the separated learning model had best performance compared to other models. After the model was built, we also provided variable importance of each group using SHAP-value to add explainability of our model. Based on the prediction model, we proposed a second-stage recommendation strategy for potential export countries. In the first phase, BCG matrix was used to find Star and Question Mark markets that are expected to grow rapidly. In the second phase, we calculated scores for each country and recommendations were made according to ranking. Using this recommendation framework, potential export countries were selected and information about those countries for each item was presented. There are several implications of this study. First of all, most of the preceding studies have conducted research on the specific situation or country. However, this study use various variables and develops a machine learning model for a wide range of countries and items. Second, as to our knowledge, it is the first attempt to adopt a separated learning method for exports prediction. By separating the dataset into 5 homogeneous subgroups, we could enhance the predictive performance of the model. Also, more detailed explanation of models by group is provided using SHAP values. Lastly, this study has several practical implications. There are some platforms which serve trade information including KOTRA, but most of them are based on past data. Therefore, it is not easy for companies to predict future trends. By utilizing the model and recommendation strategy in this research, trade related services in each platform can be improved so that companies including SMEs can fully utilize the service when making strategies and decisions for exports.

Video Analysis System for Action and Emotion Detection by Object with Hierarchical Clustering based Re-ID (계층적 군집화 기반 Re-ID를 활용한 객체별 행동 및 표정 검출용 영상 분석 시스템)

  • Lee, Sang-Hyun;Yang, Seong-Hun;Oh, Seung-Jin;Kang, Jinbeom
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.89-106
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the amount of video data collected from smartphones, CCTVs, black boxes, and high-definition cameras has increased rapidly. According to the increasing video data, the requirements for analysis and utilization are increasing. Due to the lack of skilled manpower to analyze videos in many industries, machine learning and artificial intelligence are actively used to assist manpower. In this situation, the demand for various computer vision technologies such as object detection and tracking, action detection, emotion detection, and Re-ID also increased rapidly. However, the object detection and tracking technology has many difficulties that degrade performance, such as re-appearance after the object's departure from the video recording location, and occlusion. Accordingly, action and emotion detection models based on object detection and tracking models also have difficulties in extracting data for each object. In addition, deep learning architectures consist of various models suffer from performance degradation due to bottlenects and lack of optimization. In this study, we propose an video analysis system consists of YOLOv5 based DeepSORT object tracking model, SlowFast based action recognition model, Torchreid based Re-ID model, and AWS Rekognition which is emotion recognition service. Proposed model uses single-linkage hierarchical clustering based Re-ID and some processing method which maximize hardware throughput. It has higher accuracy than the performance of the re-identification model using simple metrics, near real-time processing performance, and prevents tracking failure due to object departure and re-emergence, occlusion, etc. By continuously linking the action and facial emotion detection results of each object to the same object, it is possible to efficiently analyze videos. The re-identification model extracts a feature vector from the bounding box of object image detected by the object tracking model for each frame, and applies the single-linkage hierarchical clustering from the past frame using the extracted feature vectors to identify the same object that failed to track. Through the above process, it is possible to re-track the same object that has failed to tracking in the case of re-appearance or occlusion after leaving the video location. As a result, action and facial emotion detection results of the newly recognized object due to the tracking fails can be linked to those of the object that appeared in the past. On the other hand, as a way to improve processing performance, we introduce Bounding Box Queue by Object and Feature Queue method that can reduce RAM memory requirements while maximizing GPU memory throughput. Also we introduce the IoF(Intersection over Face) algorithm that allows facial emotion recognized through AWS Rekognition to be linked with object tracking information. The academic significance of this study is that the two-stage re-identification model can have real-time performance even in a high-cost environment that performs action and facial emotion detection according to processing techniques without reducing the accuracy by using simple metrics to achieve real-time performance. The practical implication of this study is that in various industrial fields that require action and facial emotion detection but have many difficulties due to the fails in object tracking can analyze videos effectively through proposed model. Proposed model which has high accuracy of retrace and processing performance can be used in various fields such as intelligent monitoring, observation services and behavioral or psychological analysis services where the integration of tracking information and extracted metadata creates greate industrial and business value. In the future, in order to measure the object tracking performance more precisely, there is a need to conduct an experiment using the MOT Challenge dataset, which is data used by many international conferences. We will investigate the problem that the IoF algorithm cannot solve to develop an additional complementary algorithm. In addition, we plan to conduct additional research to apply this model to various fields' dataset related to intelligent video analysis.

Developments of Local Festival Mobile Application and Data Analysis System Applying Beacon (비콘을 활용한 위치기반 지역축제 모바일 애플리케이션과 데이터 분석 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Song I;Kim, Won Pyo;Jeong, Chul
    • Korea Science and Art Forum
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    • v.31
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    • pp.21-32
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    • 2017
  • Local festivals form the regional cultures and atmosphere of communication; they increase the demand of domestic tourism businesses and thus, have an important role in ripple effects (e.g. regional image improvement, tourist influx, job creation, regional contents development, and local product sales) and economic revitalization. IoT (Internet of Thing) technologies have been developed especially, beacon-one of the IoT services has been applied as plenty of types and forms both domestically and internationally. However, notwithstanding expansion of current digital mobile technologies, it still remains as difficult for the individual to track the information about all the local festivals and to fulfill the tourists' needs of enjoying festivals given the weak strategic approaches and advertisement activities. Furthermore, current festival-related mobile applications don't function well as delivering information and have numerous contents issues (e.g. ways of information delivery within the festival places, independent application usage for each festival, one time usage due to one time event). This research, based on the background mentioned above, aims to develop the local festival mobile application and data analysis system applying beacon technology. First of all, three algorithms were developed, namely, 'festival crowding algorithm', 'visitor stats algorithm', and 'customized information algorithm', and then beta test was followed with the developed application and data analysis system. As a result, they could form the database of visitors' types and behaviors, and provide functions and services, such as personalized information, waiting time for festival contents, and 'hot place' function. Besides, in Google Play store, they also got the titles given with more than 13,000 downloads within first three months and as the most exposed application related with festivals; and, thus, got credited with their marketability and excellence. This research follows this order: chapter 2 shows the literature review of local festival related with technology development, beacon service, and festival application. In Chapter 3, design plans and conditions are described of developing local festival mobile application and data analysis system with beacon. Chapter 4 evaluates the results of the beta performance test to verify applicability of the developed application and data analysis system, and lastly, chapter 5 explains the conclusion and suggests the future research.

A study on animal SHUNJANG in tombs 39 and 63 in Gyo-dong, Changnyeong (창녕 교동 39·63호분 동물순장 연구)

  • KWON Jooyoung;KIM Bosang
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.56-70
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    • 2022
  • Tombs No. 39 and No. 63 in Gyo-dong, Changnyeong, are unique in the Changnyeong area in that they do not have additional burials because they are hoenggu-style tombs with an entrance on the north side. This study tried to understand the nature and meaning of the two separate stone walls at the entrance of the tomb along with the burial process of the tomb. These two stone walls mark small tombs built independently within a large tomb, with stone wall No. 39 stone wall No. 3 (No.39-3) and No. 63 stone wall No. 3 (No. 63-3). Both units are located in the middle of the northern wall of the burial body part and share one wall with the burial body part wall stone. All animal fluids inside the stone wall were identified. In particular, it was estimated that at least three dogs were buried as a result of identification of animal fluids No. 63-3. Above all, these animals have their heads facing outward with their backs to the main occupants, and do not overlap in a limited space and are placed side by side. Changnyeong Gyo-dong No. 39-3 and 63-3 were created in the process of building the burial body, and although they are independent relics, they form a subordinate relationship in that they were built along the main burial within one tomb. In addition, it is coercive in that it is placed in an orderly manner according to a certain direction in a state that has not been dismantled after killing an animal. Therefore, It is understood to be the SHUNJANG of dogs. Studies on animal fluids excavated from tombs in the Three Kingdoms period are interpreted as animal stewardship, sacrificial collection, and animal sacrifice depending on their location, and this is known as a series of animal sacrifice rites, namely, animal stewardship and sacrifice. This recognition is based on material objectification of animals, such as food or sacrifices. However, Changnyeong Gyo-dong No. 39-3 and 63-3 are different in that they recognize animals as spiritual beings in the process of funeral rites and are closely related to the ideology that there is life after death. In addition, analysis of the location and directionality of the remains is also required from multiple angles. These two SHUNJANG correspond to the entrance to the tomb, and the location is the most open space at the entrance. The appearance of a dog looking outward, etc., can also be interpreted as the meaning of protecting the tombs and byeoksa. This appearance can be compared with the dog depicted in a mural in a Goguryeo tomb that reflects the ancient world's thought and stone figures excavated from the tomb of King Muryeong of Baekje, and it is also consistent with the meaning of the JINMYOSU protecting the ancient tombs. This suggests that a multifaceted study on animal fluid burial remains is needed in the future.

Development of case-based learning and co-teaching clinical practice education model for pre-service nurses (예비간호사를 위한 사례기반학습 및 코티칭 임상실습 교육모형 개발)

  • Hyunjeong Kim;Heekyoung Hyoung;Hyunwoo Kim;Seryeong Kim
    • Journal of Christian Education in Korea
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    • v.72
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    • pp.245-271
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a nursing clinical practice education model that applies case-based learning and co-teaching to nursing students, and to secure the validity of the developed model. To verify the validity of the nursing clinical practice education model, it was applied to the subject of 'Health Response and Nursing VI (Perception/ Cognition) Practice' in the 2nd semester of 2021 at J University in Jeonju, and the instructor's response to the model was evaluated. Surveys and focus group interviews were conducted on confidence in clinical practice and teaching and learning models. After deriving the case-based learning stage and co-teaching elements through a review of precedent literature and case studies, an initial model was devised after expert review, and the devised model was reviewed for internal validity by nursing education experts, and then modified and supplemented. As a result of the learner response evaluation conducted after applying the model to the clinical practice subject for external validation verification, the confidence in clinical performance was 4.22 points and the satisfaction with the teaching-learning model was 4.68 points. Summarizing the results of the focus group interview, the importance of prior learning and the learning of selected cases based on actual cases, learning terminology and professional knowledge, eliminated fear of the practice field, felt familiar, and learned various cases. He said that he was able to think critically through the time to organize the knowledge learned in the practice field. In addition, through co-teaching, it was found that field leaders and advisors taught the theoretical and practical aspects at the same time through examples, thereby experiencing practical education closer to practice. It is expected that the nursing clinical practice education model developed through this study, applying case-based learning and co-teaching, will be an effective teaching and learning model that can reduce the gap between theory and practice and improve the clinical performance of nursing students.

Quality Characteristics of Cuttlefish Inky Tofu Prepared with Various Coagulants (응고제에 따른 오징어 먹물 두부의 품질 특성)

  • Park, Eo-Jin;An, Sang-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.653-660
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    • 2006
  • Some quality characteristics of tofu prepared with cuttlefish ink were investigated to study the effects of various of coagulants. Each concentration of coagulant was determined as 0.2% of GDL, 0.3# of $MgCl_2$, 1%^ of $CaCl_2$, 1.5% of $CaSO_4$ and 0.6% D-gluconic acid calcium by pre-experiment. Also, the optimum concentration of added cuttlefish ink was chosen as 3%(diluted in twenty times). The yield of inky tofu prepared with GDL as coagulant was the highest. According to prepared with $MgCl_2$ was the highest. The result of microstructure was examined by SEM, the particles of inky tofu coagulated with GDL and D-gluconic acid calcium were small and uniformity. In overall acceptability of sensory properties, inky tofu coagulated with GDL was the highest in score. In the color of inky tofu, L value and a value were the highest coagulated with GDL, but that coagulated with $CaCl_2$ had the highest b value. In the texture properties of inky tofu, hardness, gumminess and brittleness were the highest coagulated with D-gluconic acid calcium. A positive correlation was observed between the pH of tofu whey and acidity. Sensory properties of roasted nutty flavor, hardness, cohesiveness and springiness were positively correlated with the acceptability.

The Exploration of New Business Areas in the Age of Economic Transformation : a Case of Korean 'Hidden Champions' (Small and Medium Niche Enterprises (경제구조 전환기에서 새로운 비즈니스 영역의 창출 : 강소기업의 성공함정과 신시장 개척)

  • Lee, Jangwoo
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.73-88
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    • 2009
  • This study examines the characteristics of 24 Korean hidden champions such as key success factors, core competences, strategic problems, and desirable future directions. The study categorized them into 8 types with Danny Miller's four trajectories and top manager's decision making style(rationality and passion). Danny Miller argued in his book, Icarus paradox, that outstanding firms will extend their orientations until they reach dangerous extremes and their momentum will result in common trajectories of decline. He suggested four very common success types: Craftsmen, Builders, Pioneers, Salesmen. He also suggested common trajectories of decline:Focusing(from Craftsmen to Tinkers), Venturing(from Builders to Imperialists), Inventing(from Pioneers to Escapists), Decoupling(from Salesmen to Drifts). In Korea, successful startups appear to possess three kinds of drive: Technology-drive, Vision-drive, Market-drive. Successful technology-driven firms tend to grow as craftsmen or pioneers. Successful vision-driven and market-driven ones tend to grow as builders and salesmen respectively. Korean top managers or founders seem to have two kinds of decision making style: Passion-based and Rationality-bases. Passion-based(passionate) entrepreneurs are biased towards action or proactiveness in competing and getting things done. Rationality- based ones tend to emphasis the effort devoted to scanning and analysing information to better understand a company's threats, opportunities and options. Consequently this study suggested 4*2 types of Korean hidden champions: (1) passionate craftsmen, (2) rational craftsmen, (3) passionate builders, (4) rational builders, (5) passionate pioneers, (6) rational pioneers, (7) passionate salesmen, (8) rational salesmen. These 8 type firms showed different success stories and appeared to possess different trajectories of decline. These hidden champions have acquired competitive advantage within domestic or globally niche markets in spite of the weak market power and lack of internal resources. They have maintained their sustainable competitiveness by utilizing three types of growth strategy; (1) penetrating into the global market, (2) exploring new service market, (3) occupying the domestic market. According to the types of growth strategy, these firms showed different financial outcomes and possessed different issues for maintaining their competitiveness. This study found that Korean hidden champions were facing serious challenges from the transforming economic structure these days and possessed the decline potential from their success momentum or self-complacence. It argues that they need to take a new growth engine not to decline in the turbulent environment. It also discusses how firms overcome the economic crisis and find a new business area in promising industries for the future. It summarized the recent policy of Korean government called as "Green Growth" and discussed how small firms utilize such benefits and supports from the government. Other implications for firm strategies and governmental policies were discussed.

The Differences of Rice Growth and Yield at Various Agroclimatic Regions in Chungnam Province (충남지역 농업기후 지대별 벼 생육 및 수량 변이)

  • Choi, N.G.;Park, J.H.
    • Journal of Practical Agriculture & Fisheries Research
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.163-174
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    • 2018
  • Rice cultivation is immensely affected by many climatic factors including temperature, precipitation, etc, and imbalanced climatic conditions negatively affect the growth of rice. In this study, we investigated the effects of different agroclimatic zones of Chungnam Province on rice quality and examined the correlations between climatic characteristics and rice yield components. Average temperatures and rainfall were higher in 'Western Sobaek Inland' than those in the 'South Western coastal zone, and precipitation records showed a wide variation among counties due to typhoons during the examined periods. The average accumulative temperature affecting the magnitude of production during reproductive growth periods was higher in "Cheon-An", "Gong-Ju", "Yeon-Gi (Se-Jong)", "Bo-Ryeong", and "Dang-Jin" counties than those in other counties. The plant height was higher in 'Western Sobaek Inland' counties such as "Yeon-Gi(Se-Jong)" and "Cheon-An", and 'Southern Charyeong Plain' counties such as "Cheong-Yang", "Dang-Jin", and "A-San", than those in other counties. The number of tillers during the 40 days after rice transplantation in "Seo-Cheon" and "Bo-Ryeong" counties increased compared to other counties. This result was relevant to the fact that the date of rice transplantation in those counties was 3 to 4 days later than those in other counties of Chung-Nam Province. The average yield (milled rice basis) was the highest in 'Western Sobaek Inland' zone, showing 3,756 kg ha-1, followed by 'Southern Charyeong Plain' zone showing 3,621kg ha-1, and was the lowest in 'South Western coastal zone by 3,315kg ha-1. "Yeon-Gi(Se-Jong)" and "Dang-Jin" counties showed the highest yields of 4,100kg ha-1. "Seo-San", "Seo-Cheon", and "Tae-An" counties were relatively lower yields of 3,240~3,280kg ha-1 in comparison of other counties.

Effects of Social Exclusion on Displaced Aggression: the Mediatingon Effect of Stress and Conditional Direct Effect of Social Support (사회적 배제가 전위된 공격성에 미치는 영향: 스트레스의 매개효과 및 사회적지지의 조건부 직접효과)

  • Yoonjae Noh;Sangyeon Yoon
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.455-476
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    • 2023
  • This study focused on the characteristics of motiveless crimes that mainly originated from interpersonal problems and were acts of revenge against innocent third parties. This study confirmed the relationship between the experience of social exclusion and displaced aggression and examined the relationship between the two variables. We sought to confirm the role of related factors such as stress and social support. For this purpose, we established and tested hypotheses about the mediatingon effect of stress and the moderated mediatingon effect of social support on the effect of social exclusion experience on displaced aggression among 353 adult males aged between 19 and 49 years. The main results are that, first, social exclusion had a positive effect on displaced aggression. Second, stress was found to partially mediate the relationship between social exclusion and displaced aggression. Third, the hypothesis that social support would moderate the mediating effect of stress was not provedvaild, but the conditional direct effect of social support was confirmed in the mediation model. In other words, social support did not affect the indirect effect mediated by stress, but appeared to moderate the direct effect between social exclusion and displaced aggression. Social exclusion's prediction of displaced aggression was significant only in the average social support group (mean) and the high group (M+1SD), and appeared to increase as the group increased. This means that in groups with high social support, displaced aggression is used as a stress control strategy, which is a different result from previous studies that found that social support plays a role in lowerings aggression. People with low levels of social support showed unexpected results in that they used displaced aggression less frequently despite their experiencinge of social exclusion. In the discussion, the social implications of these results were interpreted, and additional research ideas were proposed to specify the relationship between social exclusion and displaced aggression.

An Exploratory Study on the Success Factors of Silicon Valley Platform Business Ecosystem: Focusing on IPA Analysis and Qualitative Analysis (실리콘밸리 플랫폼 기업생태계의 성공요인에 관한 탐색적 연구: IPA 분석과 질적 분석을 중심으로)

  • Yeonsung, Jung;Seong Ho, Lee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.203-223
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    • 2023
  • Recently, the platform industry is rapidly growing in the global market, and competition is intensifying at the same time. Therefore, in order for domestic platform companies to have global competitiveness in the platform market, it is necessary to study the platform business ecosystem and success factors. However, most of the recent platform-related studies have been theoretical studies on the characteristics of platform business status analysis, platform economy, and indirect network externalities of platforms. Therefore, this study comprehensively analyzed the success factors of Silicon Valley's business ecosystem proposed in previous studies, and at the same time analyzed the success factors extracted from stakeholders in the actual Silicon Valley platform business ecosystem. And based on these factors, an IPA analysis was conducted as a way to propose a success plan to stakeholders in the platform business ecosystem. As a result of the analysis, among the success factors collected through previous studies, manpower, capital, and challenge culture were identified as factors that are relatively well maintained in both importance and satisfaction in Silicon Valley. In the end, it can be seen that the creation of an environment and culture in which Silicon Valley can use it to challenge itself based on excellent human resources and abundant capital contributes the most to the success of Silicon Valley's platform business. On the other hand, although it is of high importance to Silicon Valley's platform corporate ecosystem, the factors that show relatively low satisfaction among stakeholders are 'learning and benchmarking among active companies' and 'strong ties and cooperation between members', and it is analyzed that interest and effort are needed to strengthen these factors in the future. Finally, the systems and policies necessary for market autonomous competition, 'business support service industry', 'name value', and 'spin-off start-up' were important factors in literature research, but the importance and satisfaction of these factors were lowered due to changes in the times and environment. This study has academic implications in that it comprehensively analyzes the success factors of Silicon Valley's business ecosystem proposed in previous studies, and at the same time analyzes the success factors extracted from stakeholders in the actual Silicon Valley platform business ecosystem. In addition, there is another academic implications that importance and satisfaction were simultaneously examined through IPA analysis based on these various extracted factors. As for academic implications, it is meaningful in that it contributed to the formation of the domestic platform ecosystem by providing the government and companies with concrete information on the success factors of the platform business ecosystem and the theoretical grounds for the growth of domestic platform businesses.

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