• Title/Summary/Keyword: sensitivity model

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A Study on the Forest Yield Regulation by Systems Analysis (시스템분석(分析)에 의(依)한 삼림수확조절(森林收穫調節)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Cho, Eung-hyouk
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.344-390
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    • 1977
  • The purpose of this paper was to schedule optimum cutting strategy which could maximize the total yield under certain restrictions on periodic timber removals and harvest areas from an industrial forest, based on a linear programming technique. Sensitivity of the regulation model to variations in restrictions has also been analyzed to get information on the changes of total yield in the planning period. The regulation procedure has been made on the experimental forest of the Agricultural College of Seoul National University. The forest is composed of 219 cutting units, and characterized by younger age group which is very common in Korea. The planning period is devided into 10 cutting periods of five years each, and cutting is permissible only on the stands of age groups 5-9. It is also assumed in the study that the subsequent forests are established immediately after cutting existing forests, non-stocked forest lands are planted in first cutting period, and established forests are fully stocked until next harvest. All feasible cutting regimes have been defined to each unit depending on their age groups. Total yield (Vi, k) of each regime expected in the planning period has been projected using stand yield tables and forest inventory data, and the regime which gives highest Vi, k has been selected as a optimum cutting regime. After calculating periodic yields and cutting areas, and total yield from the optimum regimes selected without any restrictions, the upper and lower limits of periodic yields(Vj-max, Vj-min) and those of periodic cutting areas (Aj-max, Aj-min) have been decided. The optimum regimes under such restrictions have been selected by linear programming. The results of the study may be summarized as follows:- 1. The fluctuations of periodic harvest yields and areas under cutting regimes selected without restrictions were very great, because of irregular composition of age classes and growing stocks of existing stands. About 68.8 percent of total yield is expected in period 10, while none of yield in periods 6 and 7. 2. After inspection of the above solution, restricted optimum cutting regimes were obtained under the restrictions of Amin=150 ha, Amax=400ha, $Vmin=5,000m^3$ and $Vmax=50,000m^3$, using LP regulation model. As a result, about $50,000m^3$ of stable harvest yield per period and a relatively balanced age group distribution is expected from period 5. In this case, the loss in total yield was about 29 percent of that of unrestricted regimes. 3. Thinning schedule could be easily treated by the model presented in the study, and the thinnings made it possible to select optimum regimes which might be effective for smoothing the wood flows, not to speak of increasing total yield in the planning period. 4. It was known that the stronger the restrictions becomes in the optimum solution the earlier the period comes in which balanced harvest yields and age group distribution can be formed. There was also a tendency in this particular case that the periodic yields were strongly affected by constraints, and the fluctuations of harvest areas depended upon the amount of periodic yields. 5. Because the total yield was decreased at the increasing rate with imposing stronger restrictions, the Joss would be very great where strict sustained yield and normal age group distribution are required in the earlier periods. 6. Total yield under the same restrictions in a period was increased by lowering the felling age and extending the range of cutting age groups. Therefore, it seemed to be advantageous for producing maximum timber yield to adopt wider range of cutting age groups with the lower limit at which the smallest utilization size of timber could be produced. 7. The LP regulation model presented in the study seemed to be useful in the Korean situation from the following point of view: (1) The model can provide forest managers with the solution of where, when, and how much to cut in order to best fulfill the owners objective. (2) Planning is visualized as a continuous process where new strateges are automatically evolved as changes in the forest environment are recognized. (3) The cost (measured as decrease in total yield) of imposing restrictions can be easily evaluated. (4) Thinning schedule can be treated without difficulty. (5) The model can be applied to irregular forests. (6) Traditional regulation methods can be rainforced by the model.

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Effect of Attenuation Correction, Scatter Correction and Resolution Recovery on Diagnostic Performance of Quantitative Myocardial SPECT for Coronary Artery Disease (감쇠보정, 산란보정 및 해상도복원이 정량적 심근 SPECT의 관상동맥질환 진단성능에 미치는 효과)

  • Hwang, Kyung-Hoon;Lee, Dong-Soo;Paeng, Jin-Chul;Lee, Myoung-Mook;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.288-297
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    • 2002
  • Purpose: Soft tissue attenuation and scattering are major methodological limitations of myocardial perfusion SPECT. To overcome these limitations, algorithms for attenuation, scatter correction and resolution recovery (ASCRR) is being developed, while quantitative myocardial SPECT has also become available. In this study, we investigated the efficacy of an ASCRR-corrected quantitative myocardial SPECT method for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD). Materials and Methods: Seventy-five patients (M:F=51:24, $61.0{\pm}8.9$ years old) suspected of CAD who underwent coronary angiography (CAG) within $7{\pm}12$ days of SPECT(Group-I) and 20 subjects (M:F=10:10, age $40.6{\pm}9.4$) with a low likelihood of coronary artery disease (Group-II) were enrolled. Tl-201 rest/ dipyridamole-stress Tc-99m-MIBI gated myocardial SPECT was performed. ASCRR correction was peformed using a Gd-153 line source and automatic software (Vantage-Pro; ADAC Labs, USA). Using a 20-segment model, segmental perfusion was automatically quantified on both the ASCRR-corrected and uncorrected images using an automatic quantifying software (AutoQUANT; ADAC Labs.). Using these quantified values, CAD was diagnosed in each of the 3 coronary arterial territories. The diagnostic performance of ASCRR-corrected SPECT was compared with that of non-corrected SPECT. Results: Among the 75 patients of Group-I, 9 patients had normal CAG while the remaining 66 patients had 155 arterial lesions; 61 left anterior descending (LAD), 48 left circumflex (LCX) and 46 right coronary (RCA) arterial lesions. For the LAD and LCX lesions, there was no significant difference in diagnostic performance. In Group-II patients, the overall normalcy rate improved but this improvement was not statistically significant (p=0.07). However, for RCA lesions, specificity improved significantly but sensitivity worsened significantly with ASCRR correction (both p<0.05). Overall accuracy was the same. Conclusion: The ASCRR correction did not improve diagnostic performance significantly although the diagnostic specificity for RCA lesions improved on quantitative myocardial SPECT. The clinical application of the ASC-RR correction requires more discretion regarding cost and efficacy.

Serum Adiponectin Levels and Insulin Resistance in Obese Children (비만 소아의 혈중 아디포넥틴과 인슐린저항성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hee-Sun;Lee, Jin;Kang, Min-Joo;Choi, Byung-Min;Lee, Kee-Hyoung
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.481-487
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : Adiponectin, adipose tissue-specific protein, has anti-inflammatory and anti-atherogenic properties. It has been found to have a negative correlation with obesity and to play a role in modulating glucose tolerance and insulin sensitivity. Serum adiponectin concentrations are decreased in adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes. We investigated the difference in adiponectin levels between obese and non-obese children, and evaluated the relationship of serum adiponectin with body mass index(BMI), serum fasting insulin, lipid profiles and homeostasis model assessment(HOMA) in children. Methods : We measured serum adiponectin levels by radioimmunoassay in 113 children(82 obese children and 31 non-obese controls) from 8 to 15 years of age, and also checked BMI, fasting serum glucose, insulin and lipid profiles. Fasting and postprandial serum adiponectin concentrations were compared by oral glucose tolerance tests in 27 obese children. The correlations of adiponectin with BMI, insulin, low density lipoprotein(LDL)-cholesterol and HOMA were analyzed by Pearson's correlation. Results : The serum adiponectin levels were significantly lower in the obese group(19.7 mg/mL) than in the non-obese group(27.5 mg/mL)(P<0.01). Serum adiponectin concentrations were negatively correlated with BMI(r=-0.39, P<0.01), serum insulin(r=-0.28, P<0.01), LDL-C(r=-0.20, P<0.01) and HOMA(r=-0.22, P<0.01). At oral glucose tolerance tests in obese children, postprandial 2 hours adiponectin level(19.8 mg/mL) was decreased compared to fasting level(25.8 mg/mL)(P<0.01). Conclusion : Serum adiponectin concentrations were inversely related to adiposity and insulin resistance in children. We suggest the serum adiponectin level could be used as an early marker of insulin resistance in obese children.

Numerical Simulation of the Formation of Oxygen Deficient Water-masses in Jinhae Bay (진해만의 빈산소 수괴 형성에 관한 수치실험)

  • CHOI Woo-Jeung;PARK Chung-Kill;LEE Suk-Mo
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.413-433
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    • 1994
  • Jinhae Bay once was a productive area of fisheries. It is, however, now notorious for its red tides; and oxygen deficient water-masses extensively develop at present in summer. Therefore the shellfish production of the bay has been decreasing and mass mortality often occurs. Under these circumstances, the three-dimensional numerical hydrodynamic and the material cycle models, which were developed by the Institute for Resources and Environment of Japan, were applied to analyze the processes affecting the oxygen depletion and also to evaluate the environment capacity for the reception of pollutant loads without dissolved oxygen depletion. In field surveys, oxygen deficient water-masses were formed with concentrations of below 2.0mg/l at the bottom layer in Masan Bay and the western part of Jinhae Bay during the summer. Current directions, computed by the $M_2$ constituent, were mainly toward the western part of Jinhae Bay during flood flows and in opposite directions during ebb flows. Tidal currents velocities during the ebb tide were stronger than that of the flood tide. The comparision between the simulated and observed tidal ellipses showed fairly good agreement. The residual currents, which were obtained by averaging the simulated tidal currents over 1 tidal cycle, showed the presence of counterclockwise eddies in the central part of Jinhae Bay. Density driven currents were generated southward at surface and northward at the bottom in Masan Bay and Jindong Bay, where the fresh water of rivers entered. The material cycle model was calibrated with the data surveyed in the field of the study area from June to July, 1992. The calibrated results are in fairly good agreement with measured values within relative error of $28\%$. The simulated dissolved oxygen distributions of bottom layer were relatively high with the concentration of $6.0{\sim}8.0mg/l$ at the boundaries, but an oxygen deficient water-masses were formed within the concentration of 2.0mg/l at the inner part of Masan Bay and the western part of Jinhae Bay. The results of sensitivity analyses showed that sediment oxygen demand(SOD) was one of the most important influence on the formation of oxygen depletion. Therefore, to control the oxygen deficient water-masses and to conserve the coastal environment, it is an effective method to reduce the SOD by improving the polluted sediment. As the results of simulations, in Masan Bay, oxygen deficient water-masses recovered to 5.0mg/l when the $50\%$ reduction in input COD loads from Masan basin and $70\%$ reduction in SOD was conducted. In the western part of Jinhae Bay, oxygen deficient water-masses recovered to 5.0mg/l when the $95\%$ reduction in SOD and $90\%$ reduction in culturing ground fecal loads was conducted.

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PM2.5 Simulations for the Seoul Metropolitan Area: (II) Estimation of Self-Contributions and Emission-to-PM2.5 Conversion Rates for Each Source Category (수도권 초미세먼지 농도모사 : (II) 오염원별, 배출물질별 자체 기여도 및 전환율 산정)

  • Kim, Soontae;Bae, Changhan;Yoo, Chul;Kim, Byeong-Uk;Kim, Hyun Cheol;Moon, Nankyoung
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.377-392
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    • 2017
  • A set of BFM (Brute Force Method) simulations with the CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality) model were conducted in order to estimate self-contributions and conversion rates of PPM (Primary $PM_{2.5}$), $NO_x$, $SO_2$, $NH_3$, and VOC emissions to $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations over the SMA (Seoul Metropolitan Area). CAPSS (Clean Air Policy Support System) 2013 EI (emissions inventory) from the NIER (National Institute of Environmental Research) was used for the base and sensitivity simulations. SCCs (Source Classification Codes) in the EI were utilized to group the emissions into area, mobile, and point source categories. PPM and $PM_{2.5}$ precursor emissions from each source category were reduced by 50%. In turn, air quality was simulated with CMAQ during January, April, July, and October in 2014 for the BFM runs. In this study, seasonal variations of SMA $PM_{2.5}$ self-sensitivities to PPM, $SO_2$, and $NH_3$ emissions can be observed even when the seasonal emission rates are almost identical. For example, when the mobile PPM emissions from the SMA were 634 TPM (Tons Per Month) and 603 TPM in January and July, self-contributions of the emissions to monthly mean $PM_{2.5}$ were $2.7{\mu}g/m^3$ and $1.3{\mu}g/m^3$ for the months, respectively. Similarly, while $NH_3$ emissions from area sources were 4,169 TPM and 3,951 TPM in January and July, the self-contributions to monthly mean $PM_{2.5}$ for the months were $2.0{\mu}g/m^3$ and $4.4{\mu}g/m^3$, respectively. Meanwhile, emission-to-$PM_{2.5}$ conversion rates of precursors vary among source categories. For instance, the annual mean conversion rates of the SMA mobile, area, and point sources were 19.3, 10.8, and $6.6{\mu}g/m^3/10^6TPY$ for $SO_2$ emissions while those rates for PPM emissions were 268.6, 207.7, and 181.5 (${\mu}g/m^3/10^6TPY$), respectively, over the region. The results demonstrate that SMA $PM_{2.5}$ responses to the same amount of reduction in precursor emissions differ for source categories and in time (e.g. seasons), which is important when the cost-benefit analysis is conducted during air quality improvement planning. On the other hand, annual mean $PM_{2.5}$ sensitivities to the SMA $NO_x$ emissions remains still negative even after a 50% reduction in emission category which implies that more aggressive $NO_x$ reductions are required for the SMA to overcome '$NO_x$ disbenefit' under the base condition.

Agency Costs of Clothing Companies with Famous Brand (유명 의류 상호 기업의 대리인 비용에 관한 연구)

  • Gong, Kyung-Tae
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.21-32
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    • 2017
  • Motivated by the recent cases of negligent social responsibility as manifested by foreign luxury fashion brands in Korea, this study investigates whether agency costs depend on the sustainability of different types of corporate governance. Agency costs refer either to vertical costs arising from the relationship between stockholders and managers, or to horizontal costs associated with the potential conflicts between majority and minority stockholders. The firms with luxury fashion brand could spend large sums of money on maintenance of magnificent brand image, thereby increasing the agency cost. On the contrary, the firms may hold down wasteful spending to report a gaudily financial achievement. This results in mitigation of the agency cost. Agency costs are measured by the value of the principal component. First, three ratios are constructed: asset turnover, operating expense to sales, and earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation. Then, the scores of each of these ratios for individual firms in the sample are differenced from the ratios for the benchmark firm of S-OIL. S-OIL was designated as the best superior governance model firm for 2013 by CGS. We perform regression analysis of each agency cost index, luxury fashion brand dummy and a set of control variables. The regression results indicate that the agency costs of the firms with luxury fashion brand exceed those of control group in the fashion industry in the part of operating expenses, but the agency cost falls short of those of control group in the part of EBITD, thus the aggregate agency costs are not differential of those of the control group. In sensitivity test, the results are same that the agency cost of the firms are higher than those of the matching control group with PSM(propensity matching method). These results are corroborated by an additional analysis comparing the group of the companies with the best brands with the control group. The results raise doubts about the effectiveness of management of the firms with luxury fashion brand. This study has a limitation that the research has performed only for 2013 and this paper suggests that there is room for improvement in the current research methodology.

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A Study on the Sensitibities of Cashflow and Growth Opportunities to Investments (기업투자와 성장기회, 현금흐름의 민감도에 관한 실증연구)

  • Lee, Won-Heum
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.1-40
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    • 2007
  • We test a model of investment-cashflow-growth opportunities relationship in order to estimate the sensitivities to investments. In this study, we use a new proxy variable for the value of growth opportunities(hereafter "VGO"), which is based on the seminal papers of M&M(1958:1961:1963) and Lee(2006;2007). The empirical findings on the sensitivities of cashflow and growth opportunities are as follows. First, when the traditional proxy variables for the growth opportunities such as Tobin's Q, MBR and sales growth are included with the new proxy VGO in the estimation, their coefficients are turned out to be insignificant. Second, only the new proxy variable VGO shows a statistically significant positive sensitibity to investment, which can be regarded that the growth opportunities hold the positive influences to investments. Third, the Tobin's Q can be decomposed into three factors such as the value of growth opportunities(VGO), the value of asset-in-place and valuation errors. It turns out that only the VGO shows a statistically significant positive relationship with investment among others. This means that the new variable VGO is a good proxy variable for the growth opportunities in the investment-cashflow sensitivity analysis. In sum, thanks to the above findings in this study, we can say that it will not be proper to choose a proxy variable for the growth opportunities from the traditional set of proxies such as Tobin's Q, MBR, or sales growth rate.

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Evaluation of Taste in the Patients with Recurrent Aphthous Ulceration by Electrogustometer (전기미각측정기를 이용한 재발성 아프타성 궤양 환자의 미각평가)

  • Jun, Jin-Yong;Ahn, Yong-Woo;Ko, Myung-Yun
    • Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate whether there were any changes in taste sensitivity with recurrent aphthous ulceration. Nintyseven subjects(25 males and 72 females) were included for the study and they were categorized into 2 groups(recurrent aphthous ulceration 27 persons, control 70 persons), recurrent aphthous ulceration group was investigated in the department of Oral Medicine, College of Dentistry, Pusan National University from April, 2005 to August, 2006 and control group was investigated in the clinic at Incheon city from June, 2006 to August, 2006. The electrical taste thresholds were measured using an electrogustometer of the 4 different sites(tongue tip, tongue lateral, circumvallate papilla and soft palate) in oral cavity. The results were as follows ; 1. The electrical taste threshold showed significant lower in the RAU group. 2. The electrical taste threshold showed significant lower in female group, and showed significant lower except soft palate in male group of the RAU group. 3. The electrical taste threshold showed a tendency to increase in all site of the multiple RAU group, but there were no significant differences. 4. The electrical taste threshold showed a tendency to increase in tongue lateral of the acute RAU group, and showed a tendency to increase in tongue tip, circumvallate papilla, soft palate of the chronic RAU group. 5. After treatment, electrical taste threshold was significant increase than initial visit in the RAU group. 6. After treatment, NAS showed a tendency to decrease in the RAU group.

A Validation Study for the Practical Use of Screening Scale for Potential Drug-use Adolescents(SPDA) (청소년 약물사용 잠재군 선별척도(SPDA) 활용을 위한 타당화 연구)

  • Lee, Ki-Young;Kim, Young-Mi;Im, Hyuk;Park, Mi-Jin;Park, Sun-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.305-335
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    • 2005
  • This paper is a result from validation study for SPDA(A Screening Scale For Potential Drug-use Adolescents) created in 2003 and newly developed during 2004. SPDA aims to screen adolescents in their early stage of drug-use and to help practitioners make a preventive approach for the adolescents. 4307 junior and senior high school students were selected as primary research subjects by stratified and quota sampling methods. 305 adolescents on probation were also selected as a comparison group and asked to answer the same questionnaire. Reliability for SPDA recorded 0.914, which proved to be better than previous year's (0.898). Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses to test construct validity proved that SPDA could be divided into 7 factors and that each factor structure of SPDA could be a proper measurement model with high level of fitness and factor loadings. Discriminant analysis to test predictive validity confirmed that SPDA could classify the adolescents excellently by the frequency of drug-use, with hit ratio of 86.6 percent(78.8% and 87.4% for junior and senior high school students respectively). For concurrent validity test, Hare Home Self-Esteem Scale, Hare School Self-Esteem, Zuckerman-Kuhlman Sensation-seeking Scale were employed to find correlation with SPDA and all the three scales had significant Pearson correlation coefficients with SPDA. Known-groups validity test indicated that SPDA had an adequate power to classify out adolescents on probation from those in schooling, with a hit ratio of 71.8 percent. Cut-off point to detect adolescents with high risk of substance use was 77, which indicated approximately T score, 55 (0.5 SD), satisfying sensitivity, specificity, and efficiency criteria.

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Development and Evaluation of a Nutritional Risk Screening Tool (NRST) for Hospitalized Patients (입원환자의 영양불량위험 검색도구의 개발 및 평가)

  • Han, Jin-Soon;Lee, Song-Mi;Chung, Hye-Kyung;Ahn, Hong-Seok;Lee, Seung-Min
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 2009
  • Malnutrition of hospitalized patients can adversely affect clinical outcomes and cost. Several nutritional screening tools have been developed to identify patients with malnutrition risk. However, many of those possess practical pitfalls of requiring much time and labor to administer and may not be highly applicable to a Korean population. This study sought to develop and evaluate a Nutrition Risk Screening Tool (NRST) which is simple and quick to administer and widely applicable to Korean hospitalized patients with various diseases. The study was also designed to generate a screening tool predictable of various clinical outcomes and to validate it against the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002). Electronic medical records of 424 patients hospitalized at a general hospital in Seoul during a 14-month period were abstracted for anthropometric, medical, biochemical, and clinical outcome variables. The study employed a 4-step process consisting of selecting NRST components, searching a scoring scheme, validating against a reference tool, and confirming clinical outcome predictability. NRST components were selected by stepwise multiple regression analysis of each clinical outcome (i.e., hospitalization period, complication, disease progress, and death) on several readily available patient characteristics. Age and serum levels of albumin, hematocrit (Hct), and total lymphocyte count (TLC) remained in the last model for any of 4 dependent variables were decided as NRST components. Odds ratios of malnutrition risk based on NRS 2002 according to levels of the selected components were utilized to frame a scoring scheme of NRST. A NRST score higher than 3.5 was set as a cut-off score for malnutrition risk based on sensitivity and specificity levels against NRS 2002. Lastly differences in clinical outcomes by patients' NRST results were examined. The results showed that the NRST can significantly predict the in-hospital clinical outcomes. It is concluded that the NRST can be useful to simply and quickly screen patients at high-nutritional risk in relation to prospective clinical outcomes.