• Title/Summary/Keyword: sensitivity analysis

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Analysis of Contribution to the National Economy of Mongolia's Mining Industry (몽골 광산업의 국민경제 기여도 분석 -산업연관분석을 중심으로)

  • Tsenguun, Ogonbaatar;Zhang, Xin-Dan;Lee, Hyuck-Jin
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.12
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    • pp.363-374
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze how much the mining industry contributes to the Mongolian national economy using the 2019 input-output table released by Asian development bank/ERCD in 2021 to understand the characteristics of the Mongolian economy and to use it as a reference. For this study, the Mongolian economy was classified into 35 industries and the contribution of the national economy was analyzed. As a result of the analysis, the total production inducement amount of the Mongolian mining industry was $38,418 million, the total production inducement coefficient was 1.473, the index of sensitivity of dispersion was 1.696, the value added inducement coefficient was 0.707, and the production inducement coefficient was 1.473. It can be seen that the Mongolian mining industry has a higher production inducement effect than other industries, and has great potential for development as a strategic industry leading other industries.

Techno-economic Analysis of Power to Gas (P2G) Process for the Development of Optimum Business Model: Part 1 Methane Production

  • Roy, Partho Sarothi;Yoo, Young Don;Kim, Suhyun;Park, Chan Seung
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.182-192
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    • 2022
  • This study provides an overview of the production costs of methane and hydrogen via water electrolysis-based hydrogen production followed by a methanation based methane production technology utilizing CO2 from external sources. The study shows a comparative way for economic optimization of green methane generation using excess free electricity from renewable sources. The study initially developed the overall process on the Aspen Plus simulation tool. Aspen Plus estimated the capital expenditure for most of the equipment except for the methanation reactor and electrolyzer. The capital expenditure, the operating expenditure and the feed cost were used in a discounted cash flow based economic model for the methane production cost estimation. The study compared different reactor configurations as well. The same model was also used for a hydrogen production cost estimation. The optimized economic model estimated a methane production cost of $11.22/mcf when the plant is operating for 4000 hr/year and electricity is available for zero cost. Furthermore, a hydrogen production cost of $2.45/GJ was obtained. A sensitivity analysis was performed for the methane production cost as the electrolyzer cost varies across different electrolyzer types. A sensitivity study was also performed for the changing electricity cost, the number of operation hours per year and the plant capacity. The estimated levelized cost of methane (LCOM) in this study was less than or comparable with the existing studies available in the literature.

Transient heat transfer and crust evolution during debris bed melting process in the hypothetical severe accident of HPR1000

  • Chao Lv;Gen Li;Jinchen Gao;Jinshi Wang;Junjie Yan
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.8
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    • pp.3017-3029
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    • 2023
  • In the late in-vessel phase of a nuclear reactor severe accident, the internal heat transfer and crust evolution during the debris bed melting process have important effects on the thermal load distribution along the vessel wall, and further affect the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) failure mode and the state of melt during leakage. This study coupled the phase change model and large eddy simulation to investigate the variations of the temperature, melt liquid fraction, crust and heat flux distributions during the debris bed melting process in the hypothetical severe accident of HPR1000. The results indicated that the heat flow towards the vessel wall and upper surface were similar at the beginning stage of debris melting, but the upward heat flow increased significantly as the development of the molten pool. The maximum heat flux towards the vessel wall reached 0.4 MW/m2. The thickness of lower crust decreased as the debris melting. It was much thicker at the bottom region with the azimuthal angle below 20° and decreased rapidly at the azimuthal angle around 20-50°. The maximum and minimum thicknesses were 2 and 90 mm, respectively. By contrast, the distribution of upper crust was uniform and reached stable state much earlier than the lower crust, with the thickness of about 10 mm. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis of initial condition indicated that as the decrease of time interval from reactor scram to debris bed dried-out, the maximum debris temperature and melt fraction became larger, the lower crust thickness became thinner, but the upper crust had no significant change. The sensitivity analysis of in-vessel retention (IVR) strategies indicated that the passive and active external reactor vessel cooling (ERVC) had little effect on the internal heat transfer and crust evolution. In the case not considering the internal reactor vessel cooling (IRVC), the upper crust was not obvious.

Techno-economic Analysis of Power To Gas (P2G) Process for the Development of Optimum Business Model: Part 2 Methane to Electricity Production Pathway

  • Partho Sarothi Roy;Young Don Yoo;Suhyun Kim;Chan Seung Park
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.53-58
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    • 2023
  • This study shows the summary of the economic performance of excess electricity conversion to hydrogen as well as methane and returned conversion to electricity using a fuel cell. The methane production process has been examined in a previous study. Here, this study focuses on the conversion of methane to electricity. As a part of this study, capital expenditure (CAPEX) is estimated under various sized plants (0.3, 3, 9, and 30 MW). The study shows a method for economic optimization of electricity generation using a fuel cell. The CAPEX and operating expenditure (OPEX) as well as the feed cost are used to calculate the discounted cash flow. Then the levelized cost of returned electricity (LCORE) is estimated from the discounted cash flow. This study found the LCORE value was ¢10.2/kWh electricity when a 9 MW electricity generating fuel cell was used. A methane production plant size of 1,500 Nm3/hr, a methane production cost of $11.47/mcf, a storage cost of $1/mcf, and a fuel cell efficiency of 54% were used as a baseline. A sensitivity analysis was performed by varying the storage cost, fuel cell efficiency, and excess electricity cost by ±20%, and fuel cell efficiency was found as the most dominating parameter in terms of the LCORE sensitivity. Therefore, for the best cost-performance, fuel cell manufacturing and efficiency need to be carefully evaluated. This study provides a general guideline for cost performance comparison with LCORE.

Experimental study on rock-coal-rock composite structure with different crack characteristics

  • Li, Tan;Chen, Guangbo;Li, Qinghai
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.377-390
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    • 2022
  • The stability of the roof rock-coal pillar-floor rock composite structure is of great significance to coal mine safety production. The cracks existing in the composite structure seriously affect the stability of the roof rock-coal pillar-floor rock composite structure. The numerical simulation tests of rock-coal-rock composite structures with different crack characteristics were carried out to reveal the composite structures' mechanical properties and failure mechanisms. The test results show that the rock-coal-rock composite structure's peak stress and elastic modulus are directly proportional to the crack angle and inversely proportional to the crack length. The smaller the crack angle, the more branch cracks produced near the main control crack in the rock-coal-rock composite structure, and the larger the angle between the main control crack and the crack. The smaller the crack length, the larger the width of the crack zone. The impact energy index of the rock-coal-rock composite structure decreases first and then increases with the increase of crack length and increases with the increase of crack angle. The functional relationships between the different crack characteristics, peak stress, and impact energy index are determined based on the sensitivity analysis. The determination of the functional relationship can fully grasp the influence of the crack angle and the crack length on the peak stress and impact energy index of the coal-rock composite structure. The research results can provide a theoretical basis and guidance for preventing the instability and failure of the coal pillar-roof composite structure.

Association of coffee consumption with type 2 diabetes and glycemic traits: a Mendelian randomization study

  • Hyun Jeong Cho;Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle ;Ga-Eun Yie ;Jiyoung Youn ;Moonil Kang;Taiyue Jin;Joohon Sung;Jung Eun Lee
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.789-802
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    • 2023
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Habitual coffee consumption was inversely associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and hyperglycemia in observational studies, but the causality of the association remains uncertain. This study tested a causal association of genetically predicted coffee consumption with T2D using the Mendelian randomization (MR) method. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We used five single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as instrumental variables (IVs) associated with habitual coffee consumption in a previous genome-wide association study among Koreans. We analyzed the associations between IVs and T2D, fasting blood glucose (FBG), 2h-postprandial glucose (2h-PG), and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1C) levels. The MR results were further evaluated by standard sensitivity tests for possible pleiotropism. RESULTS: MR analysis revealed that increased genetically predicted coffee consumption was associated with a reduced prevalence of T2D; ORs per one-unit increment of log-transformed cup per day of coffee consumption ranged from 0.75 (0.62-0.90) for the weighted mode-based method to 0.79 (0.62-0.99) for Wald ratio estimator. We also used the inverse-variance-weighted method, weighted median-based method, MR-Egger method, and MR-PRESSO method. Similarly, genetically predicted coffee consumption was inversely associated with FBG and 2h-PG levels but not with HbA1c. Sensitivity measures gave similar results without evidence of pleiotropy. CONCLUSIONS: A genetic predisposition to habitual coffee consumption was inversely associated with T2D prevalence and lower levels of FBG and 2h-PG profiles. Our study warrants further exploration.

Calibration and Estimation of Parameter for Storage Function Model (저류함수모형의 매개변수 보정 및 추정)

  • Kim, Bum Jun;Kawk, Jae Won;Lee, Jin Hee;Kim, Hung Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.1B
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    • pp.21-32
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    • 2008
  • Flood forecasting is a very important tool as one of nonstructural measures for reduction of flood damages in life and property and its accuracy is also an important factor. However, when we apply the Storage Function Model(SFM) which is mainly used for the flood forecasting system in Korea, the determination of the parameters is very important but it is difficult. So, the parameters have been calibrated by using an empirical formulas and judgement of hydrologist. Hence, in this study we perform the sensitivity analysis to understand the parameter characteristics and establish the ranges of parameters of the SFM. Also we do the parameter calibration by using the optimization techniques and objective functions, and evaluate their performances. Especially, we suggest a method to determine proper parameters by using a objective function which can be obtained from flood events. So, we use the suggested method for parameter estimation and compare the estimated parameters with the previously reported parameters. As a result of the application, the estimated parameters by the suggested method showed better than them from the previously reported parameters.

Stochastic fracture behavior analysis of infinite plates with a separate crack and a hole under tensile loading

  • Khubi Lal Khatri;Kanif Markad
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.99-117
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    • 2023
  • The crack under the influence of the higher intensities of the stresses grows and the structure gets collapsed with the time when the crack length reaches to critical value. Therefore, the fracture behavior of a structure in terms of stress intensity factors (SIF) becomes important to determine the remaining fracture strength and capacity of material and structure for avoiding catastrophic failure, increasing safety and further improvement in the design. The robustness of the method has been demonstrated by comparing the numerical results with analytical and experimental results of some problems. XFEM is used to model cracks and holes in structures and predict their strength and reliability under service conditions. Further, XFEM is extended with a stochastic method for predicting the sensitivity in terms of output COVs and fracture strength in terms of mean values of stress intensity factors (SIFs) of a structure with discontinuities (cracks and holes) under tensile loading condition with input individual and combined randomness in different system parameters. In stochastic technique, the second order perturbation technique (SOPT) has been used for the predicting the fracture behavior of the structures. The stochastic/perturbation technique is also known as Taylor series expansion method and it provides the reliable results if the input randomness is less than twenty percentage. From the present numerical analysis it is observed that, the crack tip near to the hole is under the influence of the stress concentration and the variational effect of the input random parameters on the crack tip in terms of the SIFs are lesser so the COVs are the less sensitive. The COVs of mixed mode SIFs are the most sensitive for the crack angles (α=45° to 90°) for all the values of c1 and d1. The plate with the shorter distance between hole and crack is the most sensitive with all the crack angles but the crack tip which is much nearer to the hole has the highest sensitivity.

Sensitivity Analysis in the Prediction of Coastal Erosion due to Storm Events: case study-Ilsan beach (태풍 기인 연안침식 예측의 불확실성 분석: 사례연구-일산해변)

  • Son, Donghwi;Yoo, Jeseon;Shin, Hyunhwa
    • Journal of Coastal Disaster Prevention
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 2019
  • In coastal morphological modelling, there are a number of input factors: wave height, water depth, sand particle size, bed friction coefficients, coastal structures and so forth. Measurements or estimates of these input data may include uncertainties due to errors by the measurement or hind-casting methods. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the uncertainty of each input data and the range of the uncertainty during the evaluation of numerical results. In this study, three uncertainty factors are considered with regard to the prediction of coastal erosion in Ilsan beach located in Ilsan-dong, Ulsan metropolitan city. Those are wave diffraction effect of XBeach model, wave input scenario and the specification of the coastal structure. For this purpose, the values of mean wave direction, significant wave height and the height of the submerged breakwater were adjusted respectively and the followed numerical results of morphological changes are analyzed. There were erosion dominant patterns as the wave direction is perpendicular to Ilsan beach, the higher significant wave height, and the lower height of the submerged breakwater. Furthermore, the rate of uncertainty impacts among mean wave direction, significant wave height and the height of the submerged breakwater are compared. In the study area, the uncertainty influence by the wave input scenario was the largest, followed by the height of the submerged breakwater and the mean wave direction.

Detection of a Thermal Stable-Soluble Protein (TSSP) as a Marker of Peanut Adulteration Using a Highly Sensitive Indirect Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay based on Monoclonal Antibodies

  • Sol-A Kim;Sazzad Hossen Toushik;Jeong-Eun Lee;Won-Bo Shim
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
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    • v.33 no.9
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    • pp.1170-1178
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    • 2023
  • Food allergy represents a severe problem for many societies, including sensitive populations, academies, health authorities, and the food industry. Peanut allergy occupies a special place in the food allergy spectrum. To prevent consumption by consumers suffering from a peanut allergy, a rapid and sensitive detection method is essential to identify unintended peanut adulteration in processed foods. In this study, we produced four monoclonal antibodies (MAbs; RO 3A1-12, PB 4C12-10, PB 5F9-23, and PB 6G4-30) specific to thermo-stable and soluble proteins (TSSPs) of peanut and developed an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) based on the MAbs. Among them, PB 5F9-23 MAb was firmly bound to Ara h 1, and other MAbs strongly reacted to Ara h 3 in the Western blot analysis. An antibody cocktail solution of the MAbs was used to enhance the sensitivity of an indirect ELISA, and the limit of detection of the indirect ELISA based on the antibody cocktail solution was 1 ng/ml and improved compared to the indirect ELISA based on the single MAb (11 ng/ml). The cross-reaction analysis revealed the high specificity of developed MAbs to peanut TSSPs without cross-reaction to other food allergens, including nuts. Subsequently, analyzing processed foods by indirect ELISA, all foods labeled as containing peanuts in the product description were confirmed to be positive. The results indicate that the developed antibodies exhibit high specificity and sensitivity to peanuts and can be used as bio-receptors in immunoassays or biosensors to detect intentional or unintentional adulteration of peanuts in processed foods, particularly heat-processed foods.