• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.385-401
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• 2022

Uncertainty quantification is the most important challenge in seismic fragility assessment of structures. The precision increment of the quantification method leads to reliable results but at the same time increases the computational costs and the latter will be so undesirable in cases such as reliability-based design optimization which includes numerous probabilistic seismic analyses. Accordingly, the authors' effort has been put on the development and validation of an approach that has reduced computational cost in seismic fragility assessment. In this regard, it is necessary to apply the appropriate methods for consideration of two categories of uncertainties consisting of uncertainties related to the ground motions and structural characteristics, separately. Also, cable-stayed bridges have been specifically selected because as a result of their complexity and the according time-consuming seismic analyses, reducing the computations corresponding to their fragility analyses is worthy of studying. To achieve this, the fragility assessment of three case studies is performed based on existing and proposed approaches, and a comparative study on the efficiency in the estimation of seismic responses. For this purpose, statistical validation is conducted on the seismic demand and fragility resulting from the mentioned approaches, and through a comprehensive interpretation, sufficient arguments for the acceptable errors of the proposed approach are presented. Finally, this study concludes that the combination of the Capacity Spectrum Method (CSM) and Uniform Design Sampling (UDS) in advanced proposed forms can provide adequate accuracy in seismic fragility estimation at a significantly reduced computational cost.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제69권3호
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• pp.317-326
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• 2019

This research aims to assess the tight seismic risk curve of the intake tower at Geumgwang reservoir by considering the recorded historical earthquake data in the Korean Peninsula. The seismic fragility, a significant part of risk assessment, is updated by using Bayesian inference to consider the uncertainties and computational efficiency. The reservoir is one of the largest reservoirs in Korea for the supply of agricultural water. The intake tower controls the release of water from the reservoir. The seismic risk assessment of the intake tower plays an important role in the risk management of the reservoir. Site-specific seismic hazard is computed based on the four different seismic source maps of Korea. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method is used to estimate the annual exceedance rate of hazard for corresponding Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Hazard deaggregation is shown at two customary hazard levels. Multiple dynamic analyses and a nonlinear static pushover analysis are performed for deriving fragility parameters. Thereafter, Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to update the fragility parameters by integrating the results of the analyses. This study proves to reduce the uncertainties associated with fragility and risk curve, and to increase significant statistical and computational efficiency. The range of seismic risk curve of the intake tower is extracted for the reservoir site by considering four different source models and updated fragility function, which can be effectively used for the risk management and mitigation of reservoir.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.389-398
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• 2018

The seismic isolation system makes a structure isolated from ground motions to protect the structure from seismic events. Seismic isolation techniques have been implemented in full-scale buildings and bridges because of their simplicity, economic effectiveness, inherent stability and reliability. As for the responses of an isolated structure due to seismic events, it is well known that the most uncertain aspects are the seismic loading itself and structural properties. Due to the randomness of earthquakes and uncertainty of structures, seismic response distributions of an isolated structure are needed when evaluating the seismic fragility assessment (or probabilistic seismic safety assessment) of an isolated structure. Seismic response time histories are useful and often essential elements in its design or evaluation stage. Thus, a large number of non-linear dynamic analyses should be performed to evaluate the seismic performance of an isolated structure. However, it is a monumental task to gather the design or evaluation information of the isolated structure from too many seismic analyses, which is impractical. In this paper, a new methodology that can evaluate the seismic fragility assessment of an isolated structure is proposed by using stochastic response database, which is a device that can estimate the seismic response distributions of an isolated structure without any seismic response analyses. The seismic fragility assessment of the isolated nuclear power plant is performed using the proposed methodology. The proposed methodology is able to evaluate the seismic performance of isolated structures effectively and reduce the computational efforts tremendously.

• 국제강구조저널
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.1607-1616
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• 2018

Quantitatively modeling and propagating all sources of uncertainty stand at the core of seismic fragility assessment of structures. This paper investigates the effects of various sources of uncertainty on seismic responses and seismic fragility estimates of single-layer reticulated domes. Sensitivity analyses are performed to examine the sensitivity of typical seismic responses to uncertainties in structural modeling parameters, and the results suggest that the variability in structural damping, yielding strength, steel ultimate strain, dead load and snow load has significant effects on the seismic responses, and these five parameters should be taken as random variables in the seismic fragility assessment. Based on this, fragility estimates and fragility curves incorporating different levels of uncertainty are obtained on the basis of the results of incremental dynamic analyses on the corresponding set of 40 sample models generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling method. The comparisons of these fragility curves illustrate that, the inclusion of only ground motion uncertainty is inappropriate and inadequate, and the appropriate way is incorporating the variability in the five identified structural modeling parameters as well into the seismic fragility assessment of single-layer reticulated domes.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제8권6호통권40호
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• pp.31-43
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• 2004

지진취약도 분석을 통하여 교량의 지진 위험도를 평가하였다. 지진취약도 분석에서는 교각 하부의 소성힌지의 거동을 주요 손상인자로 분석하였으며, 또한 한반도 지진재해지도를 근거로 하여 지진발생확률을 산정한 후 이들을 이용하여 교량의 성능단계에 따른 손상발생확률을 분석하였다. 이 연구에서는 교각에 직접 전달되는 지진이 아닌 암반노두에서의 지진의 최대지반가속도에 대하여 지진취약도를 분석하였으며, 비선형 지진해석을 위해서는 층상지반의 영향으로 증폭된 지진하중을 고려하였다. 제안된 방법으로 예제교량의 지진위험도를 분석하였으며, 면진받침이 설치된 교량에 대한 지진 위험도의 저감 효과를 정량적으로 분석하였고, 지진재해지도에서의 조건이 다른 지역에 시공되는 경우의 지진위험도를 분석함으로써 현 시방서의 타당성을 간접적으로 검토하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.586-595
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• 2002

The Seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) or seismic margin assessment (SMA) have been used for the seismic safety evaluation of nuclear power plant structures and equipments. For the SPRA or SMA, the reference response spectrum should be defined. The site-specific median spectrum has been generally used for the seismic fragility analysis of structures and equipments in a Korean nuclear power plant Since the site-specific spectrum has been developed based on the peak ground motion parameter, the site-specific response spectrum does not represent the same probability of exceedance over the entire frequency range of interest. The uniform hazard spectrum is more appropriate to be used in seismic probabilistic risk assessment than the site- specific spectrum. A method for modifying the seismic fragility parameters that are calculated based on the site-specific median spectrum is described. This simple method was developed to incorporate the effects of the uniform hazard spectrum. The seismic fragility parameters of typical NPP components are modified using the uniform hazard spectrum. The modification factor is used to modify the original fragility parameters. An example uniform hazard spectrum is developed using the available seismic hazard data for the Korean nuclear power plant (NPP) site. This uniform hazard spectrum is used for the modification of fragility parameters.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제77권1호
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• pp.19-35
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• 2021

Existing methods to estimate the probability of seismic pounding occurrence of adjacent buildings do not account for nonlinear behavior or only apply to simple lumped mass systems. The present study proposes an efficient method based on subset simulation for fragility and risk assessment of seismic pounding occurrence between nonlinear adjacent buildings neglecting pounding effects with application to finite element models. The proposed method is first applied to adjacent buildings modeled as elastoplastic systems with substantially different dynamic properties for different structural parameters. Seismic pounding fragility and risk of adjacent frame structures with different floor levels is then assessed, paying special attention to modeling the non-linear material behavior in finite element models. Difference in natural periods and impact location are identified to affect the pounding fragility simultaneously. The reliability levels of the minimum code-specified separation distances are also determined. In addition, the incremental dynamic analysis method is extended to assess seismic pounding fragility of the adjacent frame structures, resulting in higher fragility estimates for separation distances larger than the minimum code-specified ones in comparison with the proposed method.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.99-123
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• 2015

In this study, structural vulnerability of reinforced concrete moment resisting frames (RC-MRFs) by considering the Iran-specific characteristics is investigated to manage the earthquake risk in terms of multicomponent seismic excitations. Low and medium rise RC-MRFs, which constitute approximately 80-90% of the total buildings stock in Iran, are focused in this fragility-based assessment. The seismic design of 3-12 story RC-MRFs are carried out according to the Iranian Code of Practice for Seismic Resistant Design of Buildings (Standard No. 2800), and the analytical models are formed accordingly in open source nonlinear platforms. Frame structures are categorized in three subclasses according to the specific characteristics of construction practice and the observed seismic performance after major earthquakes in Iran. Both far and near fields' ground motions have been considered in the fragility estimation. An optimal intensity measure (IM) called Sa, avg and beta probability distribution were used to obtain reliable fragility-based database for earthquake damage and loss estimation of RC buildings stock in urban areas of Iran. Nonlinear incremental dynamic analyses by means of lumped-parameter based structural models have been simulated and performed to extract the fragility curves. Approximate confidence bounds are developed to represent the epistemic uncertainties inherent in the fragility estimations. Consequently, it's shown that including vertical ground motion in the analysis is highly recommended for reliable seismic assessment of RC buildings.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.705-714
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• 2019

Seismic assessment of underground structures is one of the challenging problems in engineering design. This is because there are usually many sources of uncertainties in rocks and probable earthquake characteristics. Therefore, for decreasing of the uncertainties, seismic response of underground structures should be evaluated by sufficient number of earthquake records which is scarcely possible in common seismic assessment of underground structures. In the present study, a practical risk-based approach was performed for seismic risk assessment of an unsupported tunnel. For this purpose, Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) was used to evaluate the seismic response of a tunnel in south-west railway of Iran and different analyses were conducted using 15 real records of earthquakes which were chosen from the PEER ground motion database. All of the selected records were scaled to different intensity levels (PGA=0.1-1.7 g) and applied to the numerical models. Based on the numerical modeling results, seismic fragility curves of the tunnel under study were derived from the IDA curves. In the next, seismic risk curve of the tunnel were determined by convolving the hazard and fragility curves. On the basis of the tunnel fragility curves, an earthquake with PGA equal to 0.35 g may lead to severe damage or collapse of the tunnel with only 3% probability and the probability of moderate damage to the tunnel is 12%.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.653-663
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• 2017

A seismic margin assessment evaluates how much margin exists for the system under beyond design basis earthquake events. Specifically, the seismic margin for the entire system is evaluated by utilizing a systems analysis based on the sub-system and component seismic fragility data. Each seismic fragility curve is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data. The systems analysis is generally performed by employing a fault tree analysis. However, the current practice has clear limitations in that it cannot deal with the uncertainties of basic components and accommodate the newly observed data. Therefore, in this paper, we present a Bayesian-based seismic margin assessment that is conducted using seismic fragility data and fault tree analysis including Bayesian inference. This proposed approach is first applied to the pooltype nuclear research reactor system for the quantitative evaluation of the seismic margin. The results show that the applied approach can allow updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level of the fault tree, and can identify critical scenarios modified due to new information. Also, given the seismic hazard information, this approach is further extended to the real-time risk evaluation. Thus, the proposed approach can finally be expected to solve the fundamental restrictions of the current method.