• Title/Summary/Keyword: second-order prediction

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Estimating Influence of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds on High Ozone Concentrations over the Seoul Metropolitan Area during Two Episodes in 2004 and 2007 June (자연배출량이 수도권 고농도 오존 사례에 미치는 영향범위 추정: 2004년과 2007년 6월 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Soon-Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.751-771
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    • 2011
  • Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound (BVOC) emissions are estimated with BEIS3.12 (Biogenic Emissions Inventory System version 3.12) over the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) and then used in CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality) simulations for two high ozone episodes in 2004 and 2007 June. The first- and second-order sensitivity coefficients of ozone to BVOC emissions are estimated with High-order Decoupled Direct Method (HDDM) simulation in order to estimate the influence of BVOC emissions on ozone using the Zero-Out Contribution (ZOC) approach. ZOC analysis shows that relative contribution of BVOC emissions on daily maximum 1-hr ozone is as high as 30% for high ozone days above 100 ppb. However simulated isoprene concentrations were over-estimated by a factor of 2 when compared to the observations at the PAMS (Photochemical Air Monitoring Station) for the 2007 episode. When assumed that actual BVOC emissions are 50% less than estimated, the ZOC of BVOC emissions on daily maximum ozone drops by more than 10 ppb for the episode. The result indicates that uncertainty in BVOC emissions may have significant impact on high ozone prediction in the SMA.

Transition Prediction of compressible Axi-symmetric Boundary Layer on Sharp Cone by using Linear Stability Theory (선형 안정성 이론을 이용한 압축성 축 대칭 원뿔 경계층의 천이지점 예측)

  • Park, Dong-Hoon;Park, Seung-O
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.407-419
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    • 2008
  • In this study, the transition Reynolds number of compressible axi-symmetric sharp cone boundary layer is predicted by using a linear stability theory and the -method. The compressible linear stability equation for sharp cone boundary layer was derived from the governing equations on the body-intrinsic axi-symmetric coordinate system. The numerical analysis code for the stability equation was developed based on a second-order accurate finite-difference method. Stability characteristics and amplification rate of two-dimensional second mode disturbance for the sharp cone boundary layer were calculated from the analysis code and the numerical code was validated by comparing the results with experimental data. Transition prediction was performed by application of the -method with N=10. From comparison with wind tunnel experiments and flight tests data, capability of the transition prediction of this study is confirmed for the sharp cone boundary layers which have an edge Mach number between 4 and 8. In addition, effect of wall cooling on the stability of disturbance in the boundary layer and transition position is investigated.

Prediction of Fracture Resistance Curves for Nuclear Piping Materials(II) (원자력 배관재료의 파괴저항곡선 예측)

  • Chang, Yoon-Suk;Seok, Chang-Sung;Kim, Young-Jin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.1786-1795
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    • 1997
  • In order to perform leak-before-break design of nuclear piping systems and integrity evaluation of reactor vessels, full stress-strain curves and fracture resistance (J-R) curves are required. However it is time-consuming and expensive to obtain J-R curves experimentally. The objective of this paper is to modify two J-R curve prediction methods previously proposed by the authors and to propose an additional J-R curve prediction method for nuclear piping materials. In the first method which is based on the elastic-plastic finite element analysis, a blunting region handling procedure is added to the existing method. In the second method which is based on the empirical equation, a revised general equation is proposed to apply to both carbon steel and stainless steel. Finally, in the third method, both full stress-strain curve and finite element analysis results are used for J-R curve prediction. A good agreement between the predicted results based on the proposed methods and the experimental ones is obtained.

Study on the Prediction of Daily TOC Data by Using Wavelet Transform and Artificial Neural Networks (웨이블렛 변환과 인공신경망을 이용한 일 TOC 자료의 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Gwak, Pil Jeong;Oh, Chang Ryol;Jin, Young Hoon;Park, Sung Chun
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.952-957
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    • 2006
  • The present study applied wavelet transform and artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of daily TOC data. TOC data were transformed into denoised data by the wavelet transform and the noise-reduced data were used for the prediction model by artificial neural networks. For the application of wavelet transform, Daubechies wavelet of order 10 ('db10') was used as a basis function and decomposed the TOC data up to fifth level with five detail components and one approximation component. ANNs were calibrated with the input data of the segregated TOC data corresponding to the details from second to fifth level and the approximation. Consequently, the ANNs model for the prediction of daily TOC data showed the best result when it had seventeen hidden nodes in its layer.

EVALUATION OF NUMERICAL APPROXIMATIONS OF CONVECTION FLUX IN UNSTRUCTURED CELL-CENTERED METHOD (비정렬 셀 중심 방법에서 대류플럭스의 수치근사벙법 평가)

  • Myong H.K.
    • Journal of computational fluids engineering
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    • v.11 no.1 s.32
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    • pp.36-42
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    • 2006
  • The existing numerical approximations of convection flux, especially the spatial higher-order difference schemes, in unstructured cell-centered finite volume methods are examined in detail with each other and evaluated with respect to the accuracy through their application to a 2-D benchmark problem. Six higher-order schemes are examined, which include two second-order upwind schemes, two central difference schemes and two hybrid schemes. It is found that the 2nd-order upwind scheme by Mathur and Murthy(1997) and the central difference scheme by Demirdzic and Muzaferija(1995) have more accurate prediction performance than the other higher-order schemes used in unstructured cell-centered finite volume methods.

METHOD OF HIGH PRECISION ORBIT CALCULATION (정밀 궤도 계산법)

  • KIM KAP-SUNG
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.13 no.1 s.14
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    • pp.167-180
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    • 1998
  • We have carried out high precision orbit calculation, by using various numerical techniques with accuracy of higher than fourth order, in order for exact prediction on position and velocity of celestial bodies and artificial satellites. General second order ordinary differential equation has been solved numerically to test the performance for each of numerical methods. We have compared computed values with exact solution obtained by using universal variables for two body problem and discussed overall results of numerical methods used in our calculation. As a result, it is found that high order difference table method called as Gauss-Jackson method is best one with easiness and efficiency in the increase of accuracy by number of initial values.

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Context Prediction Using Right and Wrong Patterns to Improve Sequential Matching Performance for More Accurate Dynamic Context-Aware Recommendation (보다 정확한 동적 상황인식 추천을 위해 정확 및 오류 패턴을 활용하여 순차적 매칭 성능이 개선된 상황 예측 방법)

  • Kwon, Oh-Byung
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.51-67
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    • 2009
  • Developing an agile recommender system for nomadic users has been regarded as a promising application in mobile and ubiquitous settings. To increase the quality of personalized recommendation in terms of accuracy and elapsed time, estimating future context of the user in a correct way is highly crucial. Traditionally, time series analysis and Makovian process have been adopted for such forecasting. However, these methods are not adequate in predicting context data, only because most of context data are represented as nominal scale. To resolve these limitations, the alignment-prediction algorithm has been suggested for context prediction, especially for future context from the low-level context. Recently, an ontological approach has been proposed for guided context prediction without context history. However, due to variety of context information, acquiring sufficient context prediction knowledge a priori is not easy in most of service domains. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel context prediction methodology, which does not require a priori knowledge, and to increase accuracy and decrease elapsed time for service response. To do so, we have newly developed pattern-based context prediction approach. First of ail, a set of individual rules is derived from each context attribute using context history. Then a pattern consisted of results from reasoning individual rules, is developed for pattern learning. If at least one context property matches, say R, then regard the pattern as right. If the pattern is new, add right pattern, set the value of mismatched properties = 0, freq = 1 and w(R, 1). Otherwise, increase the frequency of the matched right pattern by 1 and then set w(R,freq). After finishing training, if the frequency is greater than a threshold value, then save the right pattern in knowledge base. On the other hand, if at least one context property matches, say W, then regard the pattern as wrong. If the pattern is new, modify the result into wrong answer, add right pattern, and set frequency to 1 and w(W, 1). Or, increase the matched wrong pattern's frequency by 1 and then set w(W, freq). After finishing training, if the frequency value is greater than a threshold level, then save the wrong pattern on the knowledge basis. Then, context prediction is performed with combinatorial rules as follows: first, identify current context. Second, find matched patterns from right patterns. If there is no pattern matched, then find a matching pattern from wrong patterns. If a matching pattern is not found, then choose one context property whose predictability is higher than that of any other properties. To show the feasibility of the methodology proposed in this paper, we collected actual context history from the travelers who had visited the largest amusement park in Korea. As a result, 400 context records were collected in 2009. Then we randomly selected 70% of the records as training data. The rest were selected as testing data. To examine the performance of the methodology, prediction accuracy and elapsed time were chosen as measures. We compared the performance with case-based reasoning and voting methods. Through a simulation test, we conclude that our methodology is clearly better than CBR and voting methods in terms of accuracy and elapsed time. This shows that the methodology is relatively valid and scalable. As a second round of the experiment, we compared a full model to a partial model. A full model indicates that right and wrong patterns are used for reasoning the future context. On the other hand, a partial model means that the reasoning is performed only with right patterns, which is generally adopted in the legacy alignment-prediction method. It turned out that a full model is better than a partial model in terms of the accuracy while partial model is better when considering elapsed time. As a last experiment, we took into our consideration potential privacy problems that might arise among the users. To mediate such concern, we excluded such context properties as date of tour and user profiles such as gender and age. The outcome shows that preserving privacy is endurable. Contributions of this paper are as follows: First, academically, we have improved sequential matching methods to predict accuracy and service time by considering individual rules of each context property and learning from wrong patterns. Second, the proposed method is found to be quite effective for privacy preserving applications, which are frequently required by B2C context-aware services; the privacy preserving system applying the proposed method successfully can also decrease elapsed time. Hence, the method is very practical in establishing privacy preserving context-aware services. Our future research issues taking into account some limitations in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, user acceptance or usability will be tested with actual users in order to prove the value of the prototype system. Second, we will apply the proposed method to more general application domains as this paper focused on tourism in amusement park.

Simulation-based Prediction Model of Draw-bead Restraining Force and Its Application to Sheet Metal Forming Process (유한요소법을 이용한 드로우비드 저항력 예측모델 개발 및 성형공정에의 적용)

  • Bae, G.H.;Song, J.H.;Huh, H.;Kim, S.H.;Park, S.H.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Technology of Plasticity Conference
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    • 2006.06a
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    • pp.55-60
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    • 2006
  • Draw-bead is applied to control the material flow in a stamping process and improve the product quality by controlling the draw-bead restraining force (DBRF). Actual die design depends mostly on the trial-and-error method without calculating the optimum DBRF. Die design with the predicted value of DBRF can be utilized at the tryout stage effectively reducing the cost of the product development. For the prediction of DBRF, a simulation-based prediction model of the circular draw-bead is developed using the Box-Behnken design with selected shape parameters such as the bead height, the shoulder radius and the sheet thickness. The value of DBRF obtained from each design case by analysis is approximated by a second order regression equation. This equation can be utilized to the calculation of the restraining force and the determination of the draw-bead shape as a prediction model. For the evaluation of the prediction model, the optimum design of DBRF in sheet metal forming is carried out using response surface methodology. The suitable type of the draw-bead is suggested based on the optimum values of DBRF. The prediction model of the circular draw-bead proposes the design method of the draw-bead shape. The present procedure provides a guideline in the tool design stage for sheet metal forming to reduce the cost of the product development.

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Gradient Descent Training Method for Optimizing Data Prediction Models (데이터 예측 모델 최적화를 위한 경사하강법 교육 방법)

  • Hur, Kyeong
    • Journal of Practical Engineering Education
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.305-312
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we focused on training to create and optimize a basic data prediction model. And we proposed a gradient descent training method of machine learning that is widely used to optimize data prediction models. It visually shows the entire operation process of gradient descent used in the process of optimizing parameter values required for data prediction models by applying the differential method and teaches the effective use of mathematical differentiation in machine learning. In order to visually explain the entire operation process of gradient descent, we implement gradient descent SW in a spreadsheet. In this paper, first, a two-variable gradient descent training method is presented, and the accuracy of the two-variable data prediction model is verified by comparison with the error least squares method. Second, a three-variable gradient descent training method is presented and the accuracy of a three-variable data prediction model is verified. Afterwards, the direction of the optimization practice for gradient descent was presented, and the educational effect of the proposed gradient descent method was analyzed through the results of satisfaction with education for non-majors.

A Fuzzy Inference based Reliability Method for Underground Gas Pipelines in the Presence of Corrosion Defects

  • Kim, Seong-Jun;Choe, Byung Hak;Kim, Woosik;Ki, Ikjoong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.343-350
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    • 2016
  • Remaining lifetime prediction of the underground gas pipeline plays a key role in maintenance planning and public safety. One of main causes in the pipeline failure is metal corrosion. This paper deals with estimating the pipeline reliability in the presence of corrosion defects. Because a pipeline has uncertainty and variability in its operation, probabilistic approximation approaches such as first order second moment (FOSM), first order reliability method (FORM), second order reliability method (SORM), and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) are widely employed for pipeline reliability predictions. This paper presents a fuzzy inference based reliability method (FIRM). Compared with existing methods, a distinction of our method is to incorporate a fuzzy inference into quantifying degrees of variability in corrosion defects. As metal corrosion depends on the service environment, this feature makes it easier to obtain practical predictions. Numerical experiments are conducted by using a field dataset. The result indicates that the proposed method works well and, in particular, it provides more advisory estimations of the remaining lifetime of the gas pipeline.