• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.267-276
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• 2017

Seawater intrusion into coastal fractured rock aquifer, resulting in groundwater contamination, is of serious concern in coastal areas of Jeolla Namdo, Korea, which heavily depends on groundwater resources. Time series analysis and forecasting were carried out to analyze and predict EC which is a major indicator of seawater intrusion. Two time series models of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) were tested for suggesting appropriate time series model. Time series data of EC measured over one year showed a increasing trend with short periodic fluctuations, due to tidal effect and pumping, which indicated that EC time series data tended to be non-stationary. SARIMA model was found better fitted to observed EC than any other time series model. Time series analysis and modeling was found to be a useful tool to analyze EC at coastal fractured rock aquifer subject to seawater intrusion.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.8
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• pp.673-680
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• 2009

Alternatives to conventional water resources are being sought due to the scarcity and the poor quality of surface water. Riverbank filtration (RBF) is one of them and considered as a promising source of water supply in some cities. Changwon City has started RBF in 2001 and field data have been accumulated. This study is to develop a time-series model for groundwater level data collected from the pumping area of RBF. The site is Daesan-myeon, Changwon City, where groundwater level data have been measured for the last five years (Jan. 2003$\sim$Dec. 2007). Minute-based groundwater levels was averaged out to monthly data to see the long-term behavior. Time-series analysis was conducted according to the Box-Jenkins method. The resulted model turned out to be a seasonal ARIMA model, and its forecasting performance was satisfactory. We believe this study will provide a prototype for other riverbank filtration sites where the predictability of groundwater level is essential for the reliable supply of water.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.385-393
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• 2022

In this paper, we consider univariate time series models that are well known in the field of forecasting and we study on forecasting performance for their simple combinations. The univariate time series models include exponential smoothing methods and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) models, their extended models, and non-seasonal and seasonal random walk models, which is frequently used as benchmark models for forecasting. The median and mean are simply used for the combination method, and the data set used for performance evaluation is M3-competition data composed of 3,003 various time series data. As results of evaluating the performance by sMAPE (symmetric mean absolute percentage error) and MASE (mean absolute scaled error), we assure that the simple combinations of the univariate models perform very well in the M3-competition dataset.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.615-624
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• 2015

We consider the estimation of seasonal cointegration in the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity (CH) using a feasible generalized least squares method. We capture cointegrating relationships and time-varying volatility for long-run and short-run dynamics in the same model. This procedure can be easily implemented using common methods such as ordinary least squares and generalized least squares. The maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is computationally difficult and may not be feasible for larger models. The simulation results indicate that the proposed method is superior to the ML method when CH exists. In order to illustrate the proposed method, an empirical example is presented to model a seasonally cointegrated times series under CH.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.663-676
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• 1997

We obtain the simultaneous unit roots test statistics for both regular and seasonal unit roots in a time series with possible seasonal deterministic trends. The limiting distributions of the proposed test statistics are derived and empirical percentiles of the test statistics are tabulated for some seasonal periods. The power and size of the test statistics are examined for finite samples through a Monte Carlo simulation and Compared with those of the Lagrange multiplier test.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.1-8
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• 1991

The stochastic variance and structures of time series data on air quality were examined by employing the techniques of autocorrelation function, variance spectrum, fourier series, ARIMA model. Among the air quality properties of atmosphere, SO$_{2}$ is one of the most siginificant and widely measured parameters. In the study, the air quality data were included hourly observations on SO$_{2}$ TSP and O$_{3}$. The data were measured by automatic recording instrument installed in Kwanghwamoon during February and March in 1991. The results of study were as follows 1. Hourly air quality series varied with the domiant 24 hour periodicity and the 12 hour periodic variation was also observed. 2. The correlation coefficients between SO$_{2}$ and O$_{3}$ is -0.4735. 3. In simulating or forecasting variation in SO$_{2}$ ARIMA models are on a useful tools. The multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (1, 1, 0) (0, 2, 1)$_{24}$ model provided satisfactory results for hourly SO$_{2}$ time series.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.507-516
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• 2012

We study time series models for seasonal time series data with a covariance structure that depends on time and the periodic autocorrelation at various lags $k$. In this paper, we introduce an ARMA model with periodically varying coefficients(PARMA) and analyze Arosa ozone data with a periodic correlation in the practical case study. Finally, we use a PARMA model and a seasonal ARIMA model for data analysis and show the performance of a PARMA model with a comparison to the SARIMA model.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.76-81
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• 2014

Railroad traffic accident consists of train accident, level-crossing accident, traffic death and injury accident caused by train or vehicle, and it is showing a continuous downward trend over a long period of time. As a result of the frequency comparison of train accidents and level-crossing accidents using the railway accident statistics data of Railway Industry Information Center, the share of train accident is over 90% in the 1990s and 80% in the 2000s more than the one of level-crossing accidents. In this study, we investigated time series characteristic and short-term prediction of railroad crossing, as well as seasonal characteristic. The analysis data has been accumulated over the past 20 years by using the frequency data of level-crossing accident, and was used as a frequency data per month and year. As a result of the analysis, the frequency of accident has the characteristics of the seasonal occurrence, and it doesn't show the significant decreasing trend in a short-term.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2009.03a
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• pp.97-100
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• 2009

The surface parameters associated with the land are usually dependent on the climate, and many physical processes that are displayed in the image sensed from the land then exhibit temporal variation with seasonal periodicity. An adaptive feedback system proposed in this study reconstructs a sequence of images remotely sensed from the land surface having the physical processes with seasonal periodicity. The harmonic model is used to track seasonal variation through time, and a Gibbs random field (GRF) is used to represent the spatial dependency of digital image processes. In this study, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was computed for one week composites of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery over the Korean peninsula for 1996 and 2000 using a dynamic technique, and the adaptive reconstruction of harmonic model was then applied to the NDVI time series for tracking changes on the ground surface. The results show that the adaptive approach is potentially very effective for continuously monitoring changes on near-real time.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.321-328
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• 2000

Working day variations caused by trading days, holidays and leap year make it difficult to analyze monthly or quarterly economic time series. In this paper, we adjust working day variations from economic time series via RegARIMA model.