• IE interfaces
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.16-26
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• 2003

In Korea, cooling power load, which occupies about 20% of peak load in 2000 and fluctuates depending on the popular usage of air conditioning systems, has been recently the focus of the load management. The first work of KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation) to regulate cooling load as low as possible was to estimate its approximate scale and to develop the indirect methods to estimate it from the available time series data for the average hourly loads. However, KEPCO would like to have their methods improved both theoretically and practically. In this paper, we analyze their current indirect methods and detect their faults to design better indirect estimation methods. Under one of the assumptions of "no cooling load in April or May", the linear relationship between basic loads and GDP's, and the normalized seasonal factors of the Winters' multiplicative seasonal model, we provide ten indirect estimation methods in total and suggest the estimated cooling load(1988-1999) based on our various indirect methods.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.475-485
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• 2014

A stochastic weather generator based on a generalized linear model (GLM) approach is a commonly used tools to simulate a time series of daily weather. In this paper, we propose a multi-site weather generator with applications to historical data in South Korea. The proposed method extends the approach of Kim et al. (2012) by considering spatial dependence in the model. To reduce this phenomenon, we also incorporate a time series of seasonal mean precipitations of South Korea in the GLM weather generator as a covariate. Spatial dependence was incorporated into the model through a latent Gaussian process. We apply the proposed model to precipitation data provided by 62 stations in Korea from 1973{2011.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.445-458
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• 2021

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravimeter satellites observed the Earth gravity field with unprecedented accuracy since 2002. After the termination of GRACE mission, GRACE Follow-on (GFO) satellites successively observe global gravity field, but there is missing period between GRACE and GFO about one year. Many previous studies estimated terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes using hydrological models, vertical displacements from global navigation satellite system observations, altimetry, and satellite laser ranging for a continuity of GRACE and GFO data. Recently, in order to predict TWS changes, various machine learning methods are developed such as artificial neural network and multi-linear regression. Previous studies used hydrological and climate data simultaneously as input data of the learning process. Further, they excluded linear trends in input data and GRACE/GFO data because the trend components obtained from GRACE/GFO data were assumed to be the same for other periods. However, hydrological models include high uncertainties, and observational period of GRACE/GFO is not long enough to estimate reliable TWS trends. In this study, we used convolutional neural networks (CNN) method incorporating only climate data set (temperature, evaporation, and precipitation) to predict TWS variations in the missing period of GRACE/GFO. We also make CNN model learn the linear trend of GRACE/GFO data. In most river basins considered in this study, our CNN model successfully predicts seasonal and long-term variations of TWS change.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.257-263
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• 2009

Focusing on the idea that the equation of exponential smoothing method (ESM) is equivalent to (1, 1) order ARMA model equation, new method of estimation of smoothing constant in exponential smoothing method is proposed before by us which satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. Theoretical solution was derived in a simple way. Mere application of ESM does not make good forecasting accuracy for the time series which has non-linear trend and/or trend by month. A new method to cope with this issue is required. In this paper, combining the trend removal method with this method, we aim to improve forecasting accuracy. An approach to this method is executed in the following method. Trend removal by a linear function is applied to the original shipping data of consumer goods. The combination of linear and non-linear function is also introduced in trend removal. For the comparison, monthly trend is removed after that. Theoretical solution of smoothing constant of ESM is calculated for both of the monthly trend removing data and the non monthly trend removing data. Then forecasting is executed on these data. The new method shows that it is useful especially for the time series that has stable characteristics and has rather strong seasonal trend and also the case that has non-linear trend. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.

• Advances in environmental research
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.109-120
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• 2018

In the present study research air quality analyses for $PM_{10}$, were conducted in Shiraz, a city in the south of Iran. The measurements were taken from 2011 through 2012 in two different locations to prepare average data in the city. The averages concentrations were calculated for every 24 hours, each month and each season. Results showed that the highest concentration of $PM_{10}$ occurs generally in the night while the least concentration was found at the afternoon. Monthly concentrations of $PM_{10}$ showed highest value in August, while least value was found in January. The seasonal concentrations showed the least amounts in autumn while the highest amounts in summer. Relations between the air pollutant and some meteorological parameters were calculated statistically using the daily average data. The wind data (velocity, direction), relative humidity, temperature, sunshine periods, evaporation, dew point and rainfall were considered as independent variables. The relationships between concentration of pollutant and meteorological parameters were expressed by multiple linear regression equations for both annual and seasonal conditions SPSS software. RMSE test showed that among different prediction models, stepwise model is the best option.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.255-263
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• 2023

Western coastal area of Chungnam, including Cheonsu Bay and Garorim Bay, has suffered from hot and cold extremes. In this study, the extreme sea surface temperature on the western coast of Chungnam was analyzed using the quantile regression method, which extracts the linear regression values in all quantiles. The regional MOHID (MOdelo HIDrodinâmico) model, with a high resolution on a 1/60° grid, was constructed to reproduce the extreme sea surface temperature. For future prediction, the SSP5-8.5 scenario data of the CMIP6 model were used to simulate sea surface temperature variability. Results showed that the extreme sea surface temperature of Cheonsu Bay in August 2017 was successfully simulated, and this extreme sea surface temperature had a significant negative correlation with the Pacific decadal variability index. As a result of future climate prediction, it was found that an average of 2.9℃ increased during the simulation period of 86 years in the Chungnam west coast and there was a seasonal difference (3.2℃ in summer, 2.4℃ in winter). These seasonal differences indicate an increase in the annual temperature range, suggesting that extreme events may occur more frequently in the future.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
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• 2003.09a
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• pp.213-216
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• 2003

Efforts for better understanding of the interaction between groundwater recharge and thermal regime of the subsurface medium is gaining momentum for its diverse applications in water resources. A numerical model is developed to simulate temperature variations of the subsurface under time varying groundwater recharge. The model utilizes MacCormack scheme for finite difference approximation of the partial differential equation describing the conductive and advective heat transport. For the estimation of recharge rate, optimization of the model is realized by searching for the unknown parameters which minimize the root-mean-square error between simulated and measured temperatures. Simulation results for 22-year time series data of temperature measurements reveal that the proposed model can accurately simulate subsurface temperature variations resulting from the redistribution of the heat due to the movement of water and it can also estimate temporal variations of recharge. Seasonal variations of recharge and a linear relationship between precipitation and recharge are clearly reflected in the simulated results.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.55-72
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• 1987

The work analyzes the existing situation and defines special problems concerning traffic accidents in the two countries. The report is divided into three parts: 1) Using the global approach of SMEED, the data were evaluated using multiple regression analysis, and homogeneous groups of countries were defined by cluster analysis. In the global approach, the linear model is better than SMEED's non-linear model in explaining the number of fatalities. Among the different groups of countries, the linear approach was found to be better suited for industrialized countries and the non-linear approach better for the developing countries. T도 comparison of traffic fatality data for the Federal Republic the developing countries. The comparison of traffic fatality data for the Federal Republic of Germany and the Republic of Korea showed different regression equations during the same time period. 2) The BOX/JENKINS time series analysis on a monthly basis points out clearly similar seasonal patterns for the two countries over the years studied. The decrease in traffic accidents following the intensification of the safety belt requirement was proved in the ARIMA model. It amounts to 7 to 8 percent fewer personal injury accidents and fatal accidents. The identified increase in safety in the Federal Republic of Germany since the 1970s is mainly due to the reduction of accident severity in residential areas. 3) Speeds and headways on motorways in th3e two countries were also compared. The measurements point out that German road users drive faster, take more risks, and accept shorter time gaps than Korean road users. However, the accident statistics show accident rates for Korea that are several times higher than those in the Federal Republic of Germany.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.401-409
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• 2014

This study deals with capacity expansion planning of airport infrastructure in view of economic validation that reflect construction costs and social benefits according to the reduction of passengers' delay time. We first forecast the airport peak-demand which has a seasonal and cyclical feature with ARIMA model that has been one of the most widely used linear models in time series forecasting. A discrete event simulation model is built for estimating actual delay time of passengers that consider the passenger's dynamic flow within airport infrastructure after arriving at the airport. With the trade-off relationship between cost and benefit, we determine an economic quantity of conveyor that will be expanded. Through the experiment performed with the case study of Incheon international airport, we demonstrate that our approach can be an effective method to solve the airport expansion problem with seasonal passenger arrival and dynamic operational aspects in airport infrastructure.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.25 no.6_1
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• pp.537-543
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• 2007

Since the GPS absolute positioning with pseudorange measurements can significantly be affected by the observation error, the time series analysis of the GPS receiver clock errors was performed in this study. From the estimated receiver clock errors, the time series model is generated, and constrained back in the absolute positioning process. One of the CORS (Continuously Operating Reference Stations) network is used to analyze the behavior of the receiver clock. The dominant part of the model is the linear trend during 24 hours, and the seasonal component is also estimated. After constraining the modeled receiver clock errors, the estimated position error compared to the published coordinates is improved from ${\pm}11.4\;m\;to\;{\pm}9.5\;m$ in 3D RMS.