• Atmosphere
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.269-279
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• 2007

This study investigates the possibility of seasonal prediction for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific by using a dynamical modeling approach. We use data from the SMIP/HFP (Seasonal Prediction Model Inter-comparison Project/Historical Forecast Project) experiment with the Korea Meteorological Administration's GDAPS (Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System) T106 model, focusing our analysis on model-generated tropical cyclones. It is found that the prediction depends primarily on the tropical cyclone (TC) detecting criteria. Additionally, a scaling factor and a different weighting to each ensemble member are found to be essential for the best predictions of summertime TC activity. This approach indeed shows a certain skill not only in the category forecast but in the standard verifications such as Brier score and relative operating characteristics (ROC).

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.91-112
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• 2009

The bullwhip effect means the phenomenon of increasing demand variation as moving UP to the upstream in the supply chain. Therefore, it is recognized that the bullwhip effect is problematic for effective supply chain operations. In this paper, we exactly quantifies the bullwhip effect for the case of stochastic lead time and seasonal demand in two-echelon supply chain where retailer employs a base-stock policy considering SARMA demand processes and stochastic lead time. We also investigate the behavior of the proposed measurement for the bullwhip effect with autoregressive and moving average coefficient, stochastic lead time, and seasonal factor.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.52 no.1
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• pp.40-49
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• 2019

Seasonal succession of zooplankton community and species composition was studied from 2003 to 2014 in a deep reservoir, Lake Soyang, in monsoon climate region, Korea. Annual precipitation was concentrated more than 70% between June and September and it showed remarkably that seasonal variation in water quality. Seasonal variation of water quality in Lake Soyang appeared to be more significant than annual variations, and the inflow of turbid water during the summer rainfall was the most important environmental factor. Zooplankton sepecies composition in Lake Soyang showed obvious tendency through two periods (May to June and August to October) every year. Small zooplankton (rotifer; Keratella cochlearis, Polyarthra vulgaris) dominated in spring and mesozooplankton such as copepods and crustaceans were dominant in summer and fall. Zooplankton biomass showed the maximum in September after monsoon rainfall, and chlorophyll showed a similar seasonal variation and it showed a high correlation (r=0.45). The increase of zooplankton biomass is considered to be a bottom-up effect due to the increase of primary producers and inflow of nutrients and organic matter from rainfall. In this study, we found that the variation of zooplankton community was affected by rainfall in monsoon climate region and inflow of turbid water was an important environmental factor, which influenced the water quality, zooplankton seasonal succession in Lake Soyang. It was also considered to be influenced by hydrological characteristics of lake and environment of watershed. In conclusion, seasonal succession of zooplankton species composition was the same as the PEG model. But seasonal succession of zooplankton biomass differed not only in the temperate lake but also in the monsoon region.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.20 no.9
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• pp.1141-1149
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• 2011

The three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was simulated to understand coastal sea front of formation and seasonal variation in the Southern Sea of Korea. In this study, we used to concept of stratification factor, to realize seasonal distribution of stratification coefficient which of seasonal residual flow, considered with, tide, wind and density effect. Tidal current tends to flow westward during the flood and eastward during ebb. The current by the wind stress showed to be much stronger the coastal than the offshore area in the surface layer. And the current by the horizontal gradient of water density showed to be relatively weak in the coastal area, with little seasonal differences. On the other hand, the flow in the offshore area showed results similar to that of the Tsushima Warm Current. The stratification factor (SHv) was calculated by taking into account the total flow of tide, wind and density effect. In summer, the calculated SHv distribution ranged from 2.0 to 2.5, similar to that of the coastal sea front. The horizontal temperature gradient showed to be strong during the winter, when the vertical stratification is weak. On the other hand, the horizontal gradient became weak in summer, during which vertical stratification is strong. Therefore, it is presume that the strength of vertical stratification and the horizontal temperature gradient affect the position of the coastal sea front.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.116-126
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• 1999

In this paper, we have studied the seasonal vanatIons of near-field dilutions of wastewater discharged from the submerged mutiport-diffuser in Masan Bay. Seasonal changes of temperature and salinity, and tidal currents were measured at 16 stations in Masan Bay. Based on the observed ambient field data, the seasonal changes of near-field dilutions due to ambient current and density fields were calculated by CORMIX model. Because of the shallow ambient water depth of 15 m, the density profiles are isopycnal in autumn and winter seasons, in which the dilution factors were the highest, 168 with the strong spring-tidal current and 110-120 with the weak neap-tidal current. As the season changes from spring to summer, the dilution factors are considerably reduced by the factor of 2 as the thermocline is getting deepened up to Sm in depth in summer. In the case of a weak ambient current, the dilution factor in summer was reduced to 1/4 of the dilution in winter. However, with strong ambient current the difference between summer and winter dilutions becomes relatively small by 30%. The results indicate that the seasonal variation of near-field dilution is very large up to 4 times with a weak neap-tidal current, but its variations become small under a strong ambient current of spring tide in MasanBay.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.99-119
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• 2018

Unit load factor, which is used for the quantification of non-point pollution in watersheds, has the limitation that it does not reflect spatial characteristics of soil, topography and temporal change due to the interannual or seasonal variability of precipitation. Therefore, we developed the method to estimate a watershed-scale non-point pollutant load using seasonal forecast data that forecast changes of precipitation up to 6 months from present time for watershed-scale water quality management. To establish a preemptive countermeasure against non-point pollution sources, it is possible to consider the unstructured management plan which is possible over several months timescale. Notably, it is possible to apply various management methods such as control of sowing and irrigation timing, control of irrigation through water management, and control of fertilizer through fertilization management. In this study, APEX-Paddy model, which can consider the farming method in field scale, was applied to evaluate the applicability of seasonal forecast data. It was confirmed that the rainfall amount during the growing season is an essential factor in the non-point pollution pollutant load. The APEX-Paddy model for quantifying non-point pollution according to various farming methods in paddy fields simulated similarly the annual variation tendency of TN and TP pollutant loads in rice paddies but showed a tendency to underestimate load quantitatively.

• Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.155-166
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• 2011

The purpose of this study was to identify determinants for the perception of traditional food and the probability of belonging to the succession group of traditional food. This study also analyzed foods for seasonal custom and strengths as well as direction concerning improvement of traditional foods, while taking the housewives' hometowns into account. Data were collected from 304 housewives living on Baengnyeong island. Regression analysis showed that family income, age, type, years of residence on Baengnyeong island and hometown were significantly related to the perception of traditional food. Among the significant variables, hometown was the most important factor in explaining perceptional differences. Logit analysis indicated that the probability of belonging to the succession group of traditional food was high with low educational level, high perceptional degree, and North Korea as a native country. The results of chi-square analysis proved that foods associated with seasonal custom, strengths and the improvement of traditional food were different between housewives having South Korea and North Korea as a native country. In this article, similarities and differences in the foods associated with seasonal customs, strengths and the direction concerning improvement of traditional foods are discussed, and implications for both nutritionists and food marketers are provided.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.209-216
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• 2001

Dustfall particles were collected by the modified American dust jar (wide inlet bottle type) at 6 sampling sites in Pusan area from March, 1999 to February, 2000. Thirteen chemical species (Al, Ca, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Si, and Zn) were analyzed by AAS and ICP. The purposes of this study were to estimate qualitatively various bulk deposition flux of dustfall and insoluble components by applying regional and seasonal distribution. Dustfall amount of regional variations were found in order of coastal zone, industrial zone, commercial zone, agricultural zone and residential zone, and seasonal total dustfall had higher concentrations during spring for 6.741 ton/${km}^2$/season, lower concentrations during summer for 1.989 ton/${km}^2$/season, and annual total concentration was 17.742 ton/${km}^2$/year. The regional distributions of enrichment factor show well-defined anthropogenic metals (Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn) at industrial and agricultural zone, and contribution rate of soil particles were found in order of summer, fall, winter and spring. Factor loading effects of chemical composition of dustfall were found in order of road traffic emission source and combustion processed source, industrial activity source, soil source and marine source.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.11 no.12
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• pp.1281-1289
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• 2002

This study was conducted to evaluate water quality in the Keum River using multivariate analysis. The analysis data in Keum river made use of surveyed data by the ministry of environment from January 1994 to December 2001. Thirteen water quality parameter were determined on each sample. The results was summarized as follow; Water quality in the Keum River could be explained up to 71.39% by four factors which were included in loading of organic matter and nutrients by the tributaries (32.88%), seasonal variation (16.09%), loading of pathogenic bacteria by domestic sewage of Gapcheon (13.39%) and internal metabolism in estuary as lakes(9.03%). For spatial variation of factor score, four group was classified by each factor characterization. Station 1 and 2 was influenced by Daechung dam, station 3 was affected by domestic sewage of Gapcheon, station 10~12 was affected by estuary dyke and the rest station. The result of cluster analysis by station was classified into four group that has different water quality characteristics. In monthly cluster analysis, three group was classified according to seasonal characteristic. Also, in yearly cluster analysis, three group was classified. It is necessary to control the pollutant loadings by Gapcheon inflow domestic sewage in Daejeon city for the sake of water quality management of Keum river.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.45-55
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• 2000

Seasonal water requirements by paddy rice is important to water budgeting for the water resources planning at a basin scale. This paper compares the water requirements resulting from different approaches for the Han River Basin. The demands from the drought years of 1967 and 1968 were found to be significantly less than the irrigation standards. This may result in significant underestimation of the basin-wide water demands. A conversion factor method is proposed to define seasonal irrigation demands. The factor is defined from the ratios of the standards for each growing stage to the drought year demands. The results were compared satisfactorily with those from the irrigation standards, and readily applicable to the water resources planning.