• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.104-104
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• 2018

이수안전도의 기준이 되는 갈수량에 대해 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 전망을 제시하였다. 충주 댐 유역을 대상으로 기준기간(1986~2000년)에서의 기상청의 관측 기상자료와 IPCC 보고서의 RCP 4.5/8.5 시나리오를 대상으로 CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)에서 제공하는 기후변화 자료 중 5개의 모델(ACCESS1.3 CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO)의 기준기간과 미래기간(2011~2100년)의 기상자료를 수집하였다. 기후변화 자료는 정상성/비정상성 분위사상법과 베이지안 모델 평균기법을 통해 불확실성과 통계적 오차를 저감하였다. 미래기간에서, 강우는 RCP 4.5에서 1.74mm/year, RCP 8.5에서 3.22mm/year, 실제증발산은 RCP 4.5에서 1.09mm/year, RCP 8.5에서 1.78mm/year의 증가율을 보였다. 실제증발산을 입력자료로 활용할 수 있도록 IHACRES모델의 CMD(Catchment Moisture Deficit) 비선형 모듈의 매개변수를 변이하여 유효강우량 산정 과정을 개선하였다. 기준기간에서 관측유량자료와 IHACRES의 시뮬레이션을 통해 산정된 유량자료의 R-squared는 0.65이다. 기준기간에서의 매개변수를 고정하여 미래기간의 유량을 산정하고 유황분석을 통해 갈수량 전망하였다. 유량은 RCP 4.5에서 4.41MCM/year, RCP 8.5에서 9.66MCM/year의 증가율을 보였다. 갈수량은 RCP 4.5에서 0.30MCM/year, RCP 8.5에서 -0.47MCM/year의 증감율을 보였다. 연간 강수량 대비 실제증발산의 비율의 추세분석 결과, RCP 4.5에서는 홍수기에는 0.014%/year, 비홍수기에는 0.027%/year의 증가율을 보이며 거의 변화가 없는 추세를 확인할 수 있었다. RCP 8.5의 홍수기에는 -0.042%/year, 비홍수기에서는 0.167%/year의 증감율을 보이며 홍수기에는 실제증발산에 비해 강수량의 증가가 확연히 보였으며 비홍수기에는 강수량에 비해 실제증발산의 증가가 뚜렷이 확인되었다. RCP 8.5에서 비홍수기의 강수량 대비 실제증발산의 증가가 갈수량의 감소로 반영된 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 미래기간의 RCP 4.5/8.5에서 실제증발산의 증가로 인하여 강수량이 증가함에 따라 유입량이 증가함에도 불구하고 갈수량의 증가로 이어지지 않았다. 미래 갈수량의 감소는 하천의 건전성과 이수안전도의 위협이 될 수 있다.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.313-322
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• 2019

Recently, there have been frequent occurrences of bridge fires. Fires in cable-supported bridges can damage and brake cables due to high temperatures. In this study, fire scenarios that can occur on cable-supported bridges were set up. In addition, based on the results of vehicle fire tests, a fire intensity model was proposed and cable heat transfer analyses were performed on a target bridge. The analyses results demonstrated that temperature rises were identified on cables with a smaller cross-sectional area. Furthermore, vehicles other than tankers did not exceed the fire resistance criteria. When the tanker fire occurred on a bridge shoulder, the minimum diameter cable exceeded the fire resistance criteria; the height of the cable exceeding the fire resistance criteria was approximately 14 m from the surface. Therefore, the necessity of countermeasures and reinforcements of fire resistance was established. The results of this study confirmed that indirect evaluation of the temperature changes of bridge cables under fire is possible, and it was deemed necessary to further study the heat transfer analysis considering wind effects and the serviceability of the bridge when the cable temperature rises due to fire.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.294-294
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• 2019

The system for predicting flood of river at Flood Control Office is made up of a rainfall-runoff model and FLDWAV model. This system is mainly operating to predict the excess of the flood watch or warning level at flood forecast points. As the demand for information of the management and operation of riverside, which is being used as a waterfront area such as parks, camping sites, and bike paths, high-level forecasts of watch and warning at certain points are required as well as production of lowland flood forecast information that is used as a waterfront within the river. In this study, a technology to produce flood forecast information in lowland areas of the river used as a waterfront was developed. Based on the results of the 1D hydraulic analysis, a model for performing spatial operations based on high resolution grid was constructed. A model was constructed for Andong district, and the inundation conditions and level were analyzed through a virtual outflow scenarios of Andong and Imha Dam.

• Proceedings of the Korea Port Economic Association Conference
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• 2006.08a
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• pp.1-12
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• 2006

As national economies globalize, demand for intercontinental container shipping services is growing rapidly, providing a potential economic boon for the countries and communities that provide port services. On the promise of profits, many governments are investing heavily in port infrastructure, leading to a possible glut in port capacity, driving down prices for port services and eliminating profits as ports compete for business. Further, existing ports are making strategic investments to protect their market share, increasing the chance new ports will be overcapitalized and unprofitable. Governments and port researchers need a tool for understanding how local competition in their region will affect demand for port services at their location, and thus better assess the profitability of a prospective port. We propose to develop such a tool by extending our existing simulation model of global container traffic to incorporate demand-side shipper preferences and supply-side strategic responses by incumbent ports to changes in the global port network, including building new ports, scaling up existing ports, and unexpected port closures. We will estimate shipper preferences over routes, port attributes and port services based on US and international shipping data, and redesign the simulation model to maximize the shipper's revealed preference functions rather than simply minimize costs. As demand shifts, competing ports will adjust their pricing (short term) and infrastructure (long term) to remain competitive or defend market share, a reaction we will capture with a game theoretic model of local monopoly that will predict changes in port characteristics. The model's hypotheses will be tested in a controlled laboratory experiment tailored to local port competition in Asia, which will also serve to demonstrate the subtle game theoretic concepts of imperfect competition to a policy and industry audience. We will apply the simulation model to analyze changes in global container traffic in three scenarios: addition of a new large port in the US, extended closure of an existing large port in the US, and cooperative and competitive port infrastructure development among Korean partner countries in Asia.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.677-684
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• 2014

In response to possible HNS (Hazardous and Noxious Substance) spill accident, HNS spill accident scenario and response scenario were developed. The accident area listed in scenarios is the coastal area of Busan, and scenario for possible accident in the designated area and strategies to respond the accident were developed, respectively. The scenario for accident was developed by designating HNS spill according to risk evaluation of HNS and analysis of HNS spill probability along the coastal area of Busan, and then estimating possible and potential impact from the accident. The scenario for response has been suggested as a systematical responding operations in order to effectively reduce the estimated impact from the accident. The possible HNS spill accident on the seas around Busan, has been designated by the spillage of 1,000ton of xylene due to collision accident in Gamcheon Port, and the possible impacts occurred by the accident has been simulated with the help of the atmospheric and oceanic dispersion model of xylene. In the responding scenario for the accident, a phased strategies regarding emergency rescue of peoples, protection and recovery of xylene, protective measures for the responders, and post management of the accident have been suggested.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.50 no.5
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• pp.589-603
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• 2014

Expressions for determining the value of the impact force as reported in the literature and incorporated into code provisions are essentially quasi-static forces for emulating deflection. Quasi-static forces are not to be confused with contact force which is generated in the vicinity of the point of contact between the impactor and target, and contact force is responsible for damage featuring perforation and denting. The distinction between the two types of forces in the context of impact actions is not widely understood and few guidelines have been developed for their estimation. The value of the contact force can be many times higher than that of the quasi-static force and lasts for a matter of a few milli-seconds whereas the deflection of the target can evolve over a much longer time span. The stiffer the impactor the shorter the period of time to deliver the impulsive action onto the target and consequently the higher the peak value of the contact force. This phenomenon is not taken into account by any contemporary codified method of modelling impact actions which are mostly based on the considerations of momentum and energy principles. Computer software such as LS-DYNA has the capability of predicting contact force but the dynamic stiffness parameters of the impactor material which is required for input into the program has not been documented for debris materials. The alternative, direct, approach for an accurate evaluation of the damage potential of an impact scenario is by physical experimentation. However, it can be difficult to extrapolate observations from laboratory testings to behaviour in real scenarios when the underlying principles have not been established. Contact force is also difficult to measure. Thus, the amount of useful information that can be retrieved from isolated impact experiments to guide design and to quantify risk is very limited. In this paper, practical methods for estimating the amount of contact force that can be generated by the impact of a fallen debris object are introduced along with the governing principles. An experimental-calibration procedure forming part of the assessment procedure has also been verified.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.61-73
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• 2018

In the defense modeling and simulation, for the detailed analysis of the communication system, many studies have carried out the analysis under the C3 SoS(system of systems) which consists of C2(command and control) and C(communication). However, it requires time and space constraints of the C2 system. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a communication analysis method in the standalone system environment which is combined with the C system after abstracting the C2 system. In the abstraction process, we hypothesize the traffic model and mobility model for C system analysis and learn the parameters in the model based on machine learning. Through the proposed method, it is possible to construct traffic and mobility model with different output according to the battlefield. This case study shows how the process can be applied to the C3 SoS and the enhanced accuracy than the existing method. We expect that it is possible to carry out the efficient communication analysis against many experimental scenarios with various communication parameters.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.18 no.12
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• pp.197-205
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• 2013

In this study, we developed a program of optimizing stand-level carbon stock using a stand-level yield model and the Simulated Annealing (SA) heuristic method to derive a optimized forest treatment solution. The SA is one of the heuristic algorithms that can provide a desirable management solution when dealing with various management purposes. The SA heuristic algorithm applied 'thermal equilibrium test', a thresholds approach to solve the phenomenon that does not find an optimum solution and stays at a local optimum value during the process. We conducted a sensitivity test for the temperature reduction rate, the major parameter of the thermal equilibrium test, to analyze its influence on the objective function value and the total iteration of the optimization process. Using the developed program, three scenarios were compared: a common treatment in forestry (baseline), the optimized solution of maximizing the amount of harvest(alternative 1), and the optimized solution of maximizing the amount of carbon stocks(alternative 2). As the results, we found that the alternative 1 showed provide acceptable solutions for the objectives. From the sensitivity test, we found that the objective function value and the total iteration of the process can be significantly influenced by the temperature reduction rate. The developed program will be practically used for optimizing stand-level carbon stock and developing optimized treatment solutions.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.85-98
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• 1987

To analyze the aerosol dynamics in severe accidents of LMFBR, a new computer code entitled MCAD (Multicomponent Aerosol Dynamics) has been developed. The code can treat two component aerosol system using relative collision probability of each particles as sequences of accident scenarios. Coagulation and removal mechanisms incorporating Brownian diffusion and gravitational sedimentation are included in this model. In order to see the effect of particle geometry, the code makes use of the concept of density correction factor and shape factors. The code is verified using the experimental result of NSPP-300 series and compared to other code. At present, it fits the result of experiment well and agrees to the existing code. The input variables included are very uncertain. Hence, it requires uncertainty and sensitivity analysis as a supplement to code development. In this analysis, 14 variables are selected to analyze. The input variables are compounded by experimental design method and Latin hypercube sampling. Their results are applied to Response surface method to see the degree of regression. The stepwise regression method gives an insight to which variables are significant as time elapse and their reasonable ranges. Using Monte Carlo Method to the regression model of LHS, the confidence level of the results of MCAD and their variables is improved.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.53 no.9
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• pp.3068-3084
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• 2021

Investigations of large commercial aircraft impact effect on nuclear power plant (NPP) buildings have been drawing extensive attentions, particularly after the 9/11 event, and this paper aims to experimentally assess the damage and vibrations of NPP buildings subjected to aircraft crash. In present Part I, two shots of reduce-scaled model test of aircraft impacting on NPP building were carried out. Firstly, the 1:15 aircraft model (weighs 135 kg) and RC NPP model (weighs about 70 t) are designed and prepared. Then, based on the large rocket sled loading test platform, the aircraft models were accelerated to impact perpendicularly on the two sides of NPP model, i.e., containment and auxiliary buildings, with a velocity of about 170 m/s. The strain-time histories of rebars within the impact area and acceleration-time histories of each floor of NPP model are derived from the pre-arranged twenty-one strain gauges and twenty tri-axial accelerometers, and the whole impact processes were recorded by three high-speed cameras. The local penetration and perforation failure modes occurred respectively in the collision scenarios of containment and auxiliary buildings, and some suggestions for the NPP design are given. The maximum acceleration in the 1:15 scaled tests is 1785.73 g, and thus the corresponding maximum resultant acceleration in a prototype impact might be about 119 g, which poses a potential threat to the nuclear equipment. Furthermore, it was found that the nonlinear decrease of vibrations along the height was well reflected by the variations of both the maximum resultant vibrations and Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV). The present experimental work on the damage and dynamic responses of NPP structure under aircraft impact is firstly presented, which could provide a benchmark basis for further safety assessments of prototype NPP structure as well as inner systems and components against aircraft crash.