• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.275-288
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• 2009

The Korean government strengthened the environmental polices to manage and enhance Metropolitan Area air quality, and also has enforced "Special Act on Seoul Metropolitan Air Quality Improvement (SASMAQI)" issued in Dec. 2004. Recently government expanded the Seoul Metropolitan Air Quality Management District (SMAQMD) to the outskirts satellite cities of Seoul area through the "Revised Law Draft of SASMAQI". The SMAQMD has been alloted the allowable emission loads to the local governments on the basis of the carrying $PM_{10}$ capacity. However, in order to establish the effective air quality control strategy for $PM_{10}$, it is necessary to understand the corresponding sources which have a potential to directly impact ambient $PM_{10}$ concentration. To deal with the situations, many receptor methodologies have been developed to identify the origins of pollutants and to determine the contributions of sources of interests. The objective of this study was to extensively identify $PM_{10}$ sources and to estimate their contributions at the metropolitan area. $PM_{10}$ samples were simultaneously collected at the 3 semi-industrialized local cities in the Seoul metropolitan area such as Hwasung-si, Paju-si, and Icheon-si sites from April 15 to May 31, 2007. The samples collected on the teflon membrane filter by one $PM_{10}$ cyclone sampler were analyzed for trace metals and soluble ions and samples on the quartz fiber filter by another sampler were analyzed for OC and EC. Source apportionment study was then performed by using a positive matrix factorization (PMF) receptor model. A total of 6 sources were identified and their contributions were estimated in each monitoring site. Contribution results on Hwasung, Paju, and Icheon sites were as follows: 33%, 27%, and 27% from soil source, 26%, 26%, and 21% from secondary aerosol source, 11%, 11%, and 12% from biomass burning, 12%, 6%, and 5% from sea salt, 7%, 15%, and 19% from industrial related source, and finally 11%, 15%, and 16% from mobile and oil complex source, respectively. This study provides information on the major sources affecting air quality in the receptor sites and thus it will help to manage the ambient air quality in the metropolitan area by establishing reasonable control strategies, especially for the anthropogenic emission sources.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.701-717
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• 2003

The objective of this study was to extensively estimate the air quality trends of the study area by surveying con-centration trends in months or seasons, after analyzing the mass concentration of PM-10 samples and the inorganic lements, ion, and total carbon in PM-10. Also, the study introduced to apply the PMF (Positive Matrix Factoriza-tion) model that is useful when absence of the source profile. Thus the model was thought to be suitable in Korea that often has few information about pollution sources. After obtaining results from the PMF modeling, the existing sources at the study area were qualitatively identified The PM-10 particles collected on quartz fiber filters by a PM-10 high-vol air sampler for 3 years (Mar. 1999∼Dec.2001) in Kyung Hee University. The 25 chemical species (Al, Mn, Ti, V, Cr, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Cd, Ba, Ce, Pb, Si, N $a^{#}$, N $H_4$$^{+}$, $K^{+}$, $Mg^{2+}$, $Ca^{2+}$, C $l^{[-10]}$ , N $O_3$$^{[-10]}$ , S $O_4$$^{2-}$, TC) were analyzed by ICP-AES, IC, and EA after executing proper pre - treatments of each sample filter. The PMF model was intensively applied to estimate the quantitative contribution of air pollution sources based on the chemical information (128 samples and 25 chemical species). Through a case study of the PMF modeling for the PM-10 aerosols. the total of 11 factors were determined. The multiple linear regression analysis between the observed PM-10 mass concentration and the estimated G matrix had been performed following the FPEAK test. Finally the regression analysis provided source profiles (scaled F matrix). So, 11 sources were qualitatively identified, such as secondary aerosol related source, soil related source, waste incineration source, field burning source, fossil fuel combustion source, industry related source, motor vehicle source, oil/coal combustion source, non-ferrous metal source, and aged sea- salt source, respectively.ively.y.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.99-112
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• 2016

비대칭 점프확산 모형은 자산 가격의 비대칭적 변동을 효과적으로 설명하는 모형으로 활용되어 왔다. 그러나 다변량 모형으로 확장한 다변량 비대칭 라플라스 점프확산 모형은 가능도함수가 닫힌 해로 존재하지 않아 모형의 추론에 한계가 존재하였다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 한계점을 극복하기 위해 자료 확장 기법을 제안하고 새로운 베이지안 추론 방법을 개발한다. 본 논문에서 제안된 모형은 단일 점프와 공통 점프 뿐만 아니라 모든 가능한 조합으로 발생하는 점프를 반영한 확장된 다변량 비대칭 라플라스 점프확산 모형이다. 이러한 모형을 분석하기 위해 붕괴된 깁스 샘플러를 고안한 베이지안 방법을 개발하였다. 본 논문에서 제안된 모형과 방법을 모의실험 자료 및 2005년 1월 3일부터 2015년 9월 30일까지 관찰된 일별 KOSPI, S&P500, 그리고 Nikkei225에 적용하여 효율성을 검증하였다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제30권4B호
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• pp.389-397
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• 2010

본 논문에서는 극치수문자료의 경향성 분석 개념을 소개하고 이를 빈도해석과 연계시켜 해석하는 방법론을 제시하고자 Gumbel 극치분포를 기반으로, 시간변화에 의한 수문빈도 특성 변화를 모의할 수 있는 Bayesian 모형을 구성하였다. 사후분포의 매개변수는 깁스표본법에 의한 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation을 통해 추정하였으며, 이를 통해 경향성을 고려한 확률강우량과 불확실성 구간을 추정하였다. 또한 경향성을 고려한 확률강우량이 현재 알려진 확률강우량을 초과할 확률을 통해 동적 위험도 해석과정을 소개하였으며, 현재의 경향성에 대해서 시간에 따라 연속으로 추정된 확률밀도함수를 비교하여 수문학적 위험도가 증가할 수 있음을 모의결과를 통해 확인하였다. 이와 더불어 단순히 경향성의 존재여부를 확인하는데 그치지 않고 사후분포를 통해서 통계적 추론을 수행함으로써 경향성에 대한 통계학적인 유의성을 정량적으로 평가할 수 있었다.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제31권5호
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• pp.636-642
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• 2018

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters of milk, fat, and protein yields within and across lactations in Tunisian Holsteins using a random regression test-day (TD) model. Methods: A random regression multiple trait multiple lactation TD model was used to estimate genetic parameters in the Tunisian dairy cattle population. Data were TD yields of milk, fat, and protein from the first three lactations. Random regressions were modeled with third-order Legendre polynomials for the additive genetic, and permanent environment effects. Heritabilities, and genetic correlations were estimated by Bayesian techniques using the Gibbs sampler. Results: All variance components tended to be high in the beginning and the end of lactations. Additive genetic variances for milk, fat, and protein yields were the lowest and were the least variable compared to permanent variances. Heritability values tended to increase with parity. Estimates of heritabilities for 305-d yield-traits were low to moderate, 0.14 to 0.2, 0.12 to 0.17, and 0.13 to 0.18 for milk, fat, and protein yields, respectively. Within-parity, genetic correlations among traits were up to 0.74. Genetic correlations among lactations for the yield traits were relatively high and ranged from $0.78{\pm}0.01$ to $0.82{\pm}0.03$, between the first and second parities, from $0.73{\pm}0.03$ to $0.8{\pm}0.04$ between the first and third parities, and from $0.82{\pm}0.02$ to $0.84{\pm}0.04$ between the second and third parities. Conclusion: These results are comparable to previously reported estimates on the same population, indicating that the adoption of a random regression TD model as the official genetic evaluation for production traits in Tunisia, as developed by most Interbull countries, is possible in the Tunisian Holsteins.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제95권5호
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• pp.556-561
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• 2006

This study was conducted to choose end-members and tracers for application of End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) model for the coniferous forest catchment, Gwangneung Gyeongi-do near Seoul metropolitan of South Korea (N $37^{\circ}$ 45', E $127^{\circ}$ 09'). This coniferous forest of Pinus Korainensis and Abies holophylla was planted at stocking rate of $3.0stems\;ha^{-1}$ in 1976. Thinning and pruning were carried out two times in the spring of 1996 and 2004 respectively. We monitored two successive rainfall events during ten days from June 26, 205 to July 5, 2005. Two storm events were selected to determine the end members and natural traces for hydrograph separation. The event 1 amounts to 161.9 m for two days from June 26 to 27, 2005. The event 2 precipitates to 139.2 mm for one day of July 1, 205. Throughfall, groundwater, soil water and stream water of the two events above were sampled through the bulk and automatic sampler. Their chemical properties were analyzed for prediction of the main tracer. The end members that contribute to the stream runoff were identified from the three components including groundwater, soil water and throughfall. Each component and stream water in the two events formed the suitable mixing diagram in case of chloride-nitrate ion and sulfate-potassium ion. Especially, chloride-nitrate ion was found to be the most suitable tracers for EMMA model in the two events.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.1039-1047
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• 2014

시계열 자료를 위한 가장 기본적인 모형인 자기회귀모형을 고려한다. 흔히 시계열 자료에서 정규성 가정이 위배되는 경우가 발생하며, 정규성 가정을 완화하기 위한 방법으로 두꺼운 꼬리를 가지는 분포 또는 비대칭 분포를 고려할 수 있다. 비대칭 지수멱 분포의 사용은 비뚤림이 있는 두꺼운 꼬리를 가지는 자기회귀모형의 이상치의 영향을 줄이고 로버스트한 추론을 할 수 있도록 한다. 본 논문에서는 자기회귀모형에 대한 오차항에 정규분포 보다 첨도와 왜도에 유연함을 가지는 분포를 고려함으로써 정규성 가정을 완화하여 추론하고자 하였다. 정규분포의 대안으로 비대칭 지수멱 분포를 고려하였으며 정규분포의 결과와 비교 하여 비대칭 지수멱 분포의 로버스트함을 보였다. 또한 주어진 분포에 대한 효율적인 베이지안 추론을 하기 위하여 SIR 알고리즘과 격자망 방법을 고려하였다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.131-146
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• 2022

로지스틱 회귀 모형은 다양한 분야에서 범주형 종속 변수를 예측하거나 분류하기 위한 모형으로 많이 사용되고 있다. 로지스틱 회귀 모형에 대한 전통적인 베이지안 추론 기법으로 메트로폴리스-헤이스팅스 알고리즘이 많이 사용되었지만, 수렴의 속도가 느리고 제안 분포에 대한 적절성을 보장하기 어렵다. 따라서, 본 논문에서는 모형에 대한 베이지안 추론 방법으로 Frühwirth-Schnatter와 Frühwirth (2007)에서 제안된 보조 혼합 샘플링(auxiliary mixture sampling) 기법을 사용하였다. 이 방법은 모형의 선형성과 정규성을 만족시키기 위해 두 단계에 거쳐 잠재변수를 도입하며, 결과적으로 깁스 샘플링을 통한 추론을 가능하게 한다. 제안한 모형의 효과를 검증하기 위해 2020년 지역사회 건강조사 당뇨병 자료에 적용하여 메트로폴리스-헤이스팅스를 사용한 모형과 추론 결과를 비교 분석하였다. 또한, 다양한 분류 모형들과 본 논문에서 제안한 모형의 분류 성능을 비교한 결과 제안된 모형이 분류 분석에서도 좋은 성능을 보이는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.17-31
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• 2004

The subway play an important part in serious traffic problems. However, because subway system is a closed environment, many serious air pollution problems occurred in subway stations and injured passenger's health. Therefor, it is a necessary to identify sources and to estimate pollutant sources in order to protect passenger's health and to keep clean subway environment. The purpose of this study was to analyze a air quality in the subway stations and to apply a new receptor methodology for quantitatively estimate of PM10 sources. In this study, the size distributions of particulate matters has been measured by using Aerosizer LD (U.S.A., API, Inc.). It's real time measurement capability of time-of-flight technique offers a significant advantage of user convenience and air pollution management. Also, the mass concentrations of PM 10 has been measured by using mini-vol portable sampler (U.S.A., Airmetrics Co.). The sampling performed in Seoul subway stations during the period of February 2000 and April 2000. The number distribution data used in this study consisted of 26 raw data sets in the Jongno-sam-ga station. Correlation Analysis can be used in subway stations for source separation and identification. Then, number contribution from each source is determined by the particle number balance (PNB). The mass concentration data used in this study consisted of 31 raw data in the 8 different stations. The mass contributions of PM10 sources in the concourse by using PMF/CMB model.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.131-137
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• 2017

A cyclone is an effective tool to facilitate the collection of aerosol particles without using filters, and in cell exposure studies is able to collect a sufficient amount of aerosol particles to evaluate their adverse health effect. In this study, we examined two different methods to improve the aerosol particle collection efficiency of a cyclone. The individual and combined effects of reducing the surface roughness of the inner wall of the cyclone and of using a circular cone attachment were tested. The collection efficiency of particles of diameter $0.2{\mu}m$ was improved by approximately 10% when using a cyclone with a smoothened inner wall (average roughness $Ra=0.08{\mu}m$) compared with the original cyclone ($Ra=5.1{\mu}m$). A circular cone attachment placed between the bottom section of the cyclone and the top section of a collection bottle, resulted in improved collection of smaller particles without the attachment. The 50% cutoff diameter of the modified cyclone (combined use of smoothened inner wall and attachment) was $0.23{\mu}m$ compared to $0.28{\mu}m$ in the original model. The combined use of these two techniques resulted in improved collection efficiency of aerosol particles.