• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.95 no.2
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• pp.203-208
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• 2006

This study compared the roundwood demand prediction accuracy of econometric and time-series models using Korean data. The roundwood was divided into softwood and hardwood by species. The econometric model of roundwood demand was specified with four explanatory variables; own price, substitute price, gross domestic product, dummy. The time-series model was specified with lagged endogenous variable. The dummy variable reflected the abrupt decrease in roundwood demand in the late 1990's in the case of softwood roundwood, and the boom of plywood export in the late 1970's in the case of hardwood roundwood. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy was estimated on the basis of Residual Mean Square Errors(RMSE). The results showed that the softwood roundwood demand prediction can be performed more accurately by econometric model than by time-series model. However, the hardwood roundwood demand prediction accuracy was similar in the case of using econometric and time-series model.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.96 no.2
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• pp.222-226
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• 2007

This study developed the Korean roundwood import prediction model using vector autoregressive (VAR) method. The roundwood was divided into softwood and hardwood by species. The VAR model of roundwood import was specified with two lagged endogenous variables, that is, roundwood import volume and roundwood import price. The results showed that the significance levels of F-statistics in the softwood and hardwood roundwood import equations rejected the hypothesis that all coefficients are zero. So, we concluded that roundwood import volume can be explained by lagged import volume and lagged import price in Korea. The coefficient signs of all variables were as expected. Also, the model has good explanatory power, and there is no autocorrelation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.95 no.5
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• pp.539-542
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• 2006

This study confirmed econometrically the causality of forest inventory and roundwood supply using Korean data. In general, forest inventory is included as explanatory variable in roundwood supply function. We checked whether each series is stationary or not before using it in the model, and determined whether the combination of the series is comtegrated. The relationship between forest inventory and roundwood supply was represented by bivariate vector autoregressive model. The causality of forest evidence of the causal relationship between change in forest inventory and change in roundwood supply in Korea. That is, change in forest inventory does not cause change in roundwood supply in Korea. It seems reasonable not to include forest inventory as explanatory variable in roundwood supply function in Korea.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.41-51
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• 1998

This study not only carried out to grasp about the sununarized characteristics of the relationship between international timber market and production trend of wood products, but also focused on the analysis of korean wood demand and the long-term forecast with econometric analysis. The result of regression analysis for wood demand in Korea is that coniferous roundwood demand(CIWD) is explained by coniferous foreign roundwood price(CWRI), Gross domestic product(GDP), a dummy variable. Non-coniferous roundwood demand(NCIWD)is explained by non-coniferous roundwood price(NCWRI), coniferous roundwood price(CWRI), a dummy variable. As the result of long-term forecast by base case, the total roundwood demand was forecasted $11,107,000m^3$ in the year 2000, $11,781,000m^3$ in 2005, $12,565,000m^3$ in 2010. As the result of scenario 1, total roundwood demand was forecasted $11,027,000m^3$ in 2000, $11,435,000m^3$ in 2005, $11,952,000m^3$ in 2010. And as the result by scenario 2, total roundwood demand was forecasted $11,341,000m^3$ in 2000, $12,208,000m^3$ in 2005 $13,257,000m^3$ in 2010.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.40 no.5
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• pp.343-351
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• 2012

A large diameter roundwood is an important element of Korean traditional buildings, Hanok, and is hard to be dried without surface cracks. Four different pretreatments, such as pre-cracking, oil heating, kerfing-oil heating and PEG impregnation, were investigated for reducing the surface cracks of large-diameter roundwood specimens during heat treatment. The roundwood specimens of pre-cracking, oil heating and kerfing-oil heating showed surface cracks during pretreatment, but that of PEG impregnation did not. It was confirmed that kerfing reduced the total crack width. Among the four pretreatments and control only the PEG impregnation roundwood specimen had no crack on both outer and inner surfaces after heat treatment. The PEG impregnation specimen shrank only 1.6% in the tangential direction while the pre-cracking did 8.0%.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.81 no.2
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• pp.124-138
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• 1992

This study was carried out to estimate long-term demand functions, and to project consumption of roundwood to the year 2030, using time series data for the period 1970-1990. Especially, the unique features of this study are in the estimation of demand functions for roundwood by species group and by end-use with help of dummy variables. It also, attempts to show how dummy variables can be utilized for improving the estimation result. The result of this study reveals that hardwood roundwood consumption is being substituted by softwood roundwood due to the rapid increase in the relative price of softwood, and this trend is expected to continue in the near future. The consumption of roundwood by mining industry is projected to fall as the coal :mining is expected to decline. The parametric estimates of timber demand function by species group and by end-use indicate that the demand for timber in Korea is more responsive to the performance of domestic economy as a whole, represented by GDP in this study, than to other variables such as own and substitute prices. The effects of population growth and substitute prices could not be determined.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.202-210
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• 2018

This study was carried out to quantify degree of contribution of harvested wood product (HWP) on mitigation of climate change by valuation of public benefits, environmentally and economically. The potential carbon dioxide emission reduction of HWP was estimated by accounting carbon storage effect and substitution effect. Based on 2014 statistics of Korea Forest Service, domestic HWPs were sorted by two categories, such as wood products produced domestically from domestic and imported roundwood. The wood products were divided into seven items; sawnwood, plywood, particle board, fiberboard (MDF), paper (including pulp), biomass (wood pellet) and other products. The carbon stock of wood products and substitution effects during manufacturing process was evaluated by items. Based on the relevant carbon emission factor and life cycle analysis, the amount of carbon dioxide emission per unit volume on HWP was quantified. The amounts of carbon stock of HWP produced from domestic and from imported roundwood were 3.8 million $tCO_{2eq}$., and 2.6 million $tCO_{2eq}$., respectively. Also, each reduction of carbon emission by substitution effect of HWP produced from domestic and imported roundwood was 3.1 million $tCO_{2eq}$. and 2.1 million $tCO_{2eq}$., respectively. The results of this study, the amount of carbon emission reduction of HWP, can be effectively used as a basic data for promotion of wood utilization to revise and establish new wood utilization promotion policy such as 'forest carbon offset scheme', and 'carbon storage labeling system of HWP'.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.88 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 1999

The dynamic relationships among import prices of roundwood are analyzed using the time series approach. A vector autoregression(VAR) model is estimated for six import prices(New Zealand, Chile, Russia, U.S.A., PNG, and Malaysia). Then Granger's causality test, variance decomposition analysis, and impulse response function analysis are also conducted. The major results are summarized as follows : (1) The prices of New Zealand and Russia are caused by only own lagged prices. (2) The prices of Chile and PNG are effected by New Zealand, the price of PNG is effected by New Zealand and Russia, and the price of U.S.A. is effected by those of Chile and PNG, respectively. (3) An exogenous shock in New Zealand will affect the prices of New Zealand, PNG, U.S.A., Chile, Russia. (4) An exogenous shock in Chile may also affect the prices of Chile, U.S.A., Russia.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.25-32
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• 2001

A microwave vacuum (MW/V) dryer was developed for drying short roundwoods, from which woodcraft souvenirs in Korean market are mostly made, and which were hardly dried without defects in a conventional kiln. It consisted of three 1.5 kW magnetrons of 2,450 MHz, a vacuum pump, a load cell of 100 kg and a cavity of $580{\times}580{\times}1,360\;mm^3$. A computer program was developed to switch on or off the magnetrons according to drying schedules, those were based on microwave injection time or the average of wood temperatures. To evaluate the new MW/V dryer the roundwood specimens of rigida pine, poplar and birch were dried. Their log diameters and lengths ranged from 125 to 25 em and from 25 to 50 cm, respectively. In spite of the presence of minor drying defects, the MW/V drying is found to be an effective method for drying short roundwoods. Wooden turneries made of red alder and ash logs were also MW/V dried from green to 4%MC without any degradation. The rates of the MW/V drying were examined for three different lengths of poplar logs.

• Journal of the Korea Furniture Society
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.499-504
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• 2010

Korean traditional buildings, Hanok, are mostly constructed with dimension lumbers and roundwoods. They are hardly kiln-dried without severe defects, thus usually air-dried from some months to an year. Dimension lumbers and roundwoods were heat-treated above $170^{\circ}C$ and drying defects were examined. Temperature rising curves of all dimension timbers used for this study show one or two deflection points. The time when the temperature at 37.5mm depth reached at $100^{\circ}C$ for spruce dimension heat-treated at $170^{\circ}C$ was twice longer than that heat-treated at $190^{\circ}C$. There were many internal checks in roundwoods of $148mm{\Phi}$, while surface checks were apparently closed at the end of heat treatment. The drying time of $300{\times}300mm$ dimensions with 65mm hole was shorter than that without hole by half.