• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.30-49
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• 2013

In this research we developed a new traffic accident forecasting model on the basis of land use. A new traffic accident forecasting model by type was developed based on market segmentation and further introduction of variables that may reflect characteristics of various regions using Classification and Regression Tree Method. From the results of analysis, activities variables such as the registered population, commuters as well as road size, traffic accidents causing facilities being the subjects of activities were derived as variables explaining traffic accidents.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.107-113
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• 2017

This paper deals with the traffic factors related to the collisions of circular intersections. The purpose of this study is to develop traffic accident models by type of collision based on land use. In pursuing the above, the traffic accident data from 2010 to 2014 were collected from the "Traffic Accident Analysis System (TAAS)" data set of the Road Traffic Authority. A multiple regression model was utilized in this study to develop the traffic accident models by type of collision. 17 explanatory variables such as geometry and traffic volume factors were used. The main results are as follows. First, the null hypothesis that the type of land use does not affect the number of accidents by type of collision is rejected. Second, 10 accident models by type of collision based on land use are developed, which are all statistically significant. Finally, the ADT, inscribed circle diameter, bicycle lane, area of central island, number of speed hump, circulatory roadway width, splitter island, area of circulatory roadway, mean number of entry lane and mean width of entry lane are analyzed to see how they affect accident by type of accident based on land use.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.119-129
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• 2014

PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to develop the U-turn accident model at 4-legged signalized intersections in urban areas. METHODS : In order to analyze the characteristics of the accidents which are associated with U-turn operation at 4-legged signalized intersections in urban areas and develop an U-turn accident model by regression analysis, the tests of overdispersion and zero-inflation are conducted about the dependent variables of number of accidents and EPDO (Equivalent Property Damage Only). RESULTS : As their results, the Poisson model fits best for number of accident and the ZIP (Zero Inflated Poisson) fits best for EPOD, the variables of conflict traffic, width of opposing road, traffic passing speed are adopted as independent variable for both models. The variables of number of bus berths and rate of U-turn signal time at which the U-turn is permitted are adopted as independent variable only for EPDO. CONCLUSIONS : These study results suggest that U-turn would be permitted at the intersection where the width of opposing road is wider than 11.9 meters, the passing vehicle speed is not high and U-turn operation is not hindered by the buses stopping at bus stops.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.132-146
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• 2017

Appropriate speed limits at a reasonable level in urban roads are highly important factors for efficient and safe movement. Thus, it is greatly necessary to develop the objective models or methodology based on engineering study considering factors such as traffic accident rates, roadside development levels, and roadway geometry characteristics etc. The purpose of this study is to develop the estimate model of appropriate speed limits at each road sections in urban roads using traffic information big data and field specific data and to review the effects of accident decrease. In this study, the estimate method of appropriate speed limits in directional two or more lanes of urban roads is reflecting features of actual variables in a form of adjustment factor on the basis of the maximum statutory speed limits. As a result of investigating and testing influential variables, the main variables to affect the operating speed are the function of road, the existence of median, the width of lane, the number of traffic entrance/exit path and the number of traffic signal or nonsignal at intersection and crosswalk. As a result of testing this model, when the differences are bigger between the real operating speed and the recommended speed limits using model developed in this study, the accident rate generally turns out to be higher. In case of using the model proposed in this study, it means accident rate can be lower. When the result of this study is applied, the speed limits of directional two or more lane roads in Seoul appears about 11km/h lower than the current speed limits. The decrease of average operating speed caused by the decrease of speed limits is 2.8km/h, and the decrease effect of whole accidents according to the decrease of speed is 18% at research road. In case that accident severity is considered, the accident decrease effects are expected to 17~24% in fatalities, 11~17% in seriously injured road user, 6~9% in slightly injured road user, 5~6% in property damage only accidents.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.120-126
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• 2011

Under the current law or system, the range of traffic accident on the crosswalk does not reflect the characteristics of traffic accident and the pedestrian's walking pattern. Thus, this study conducted a video recording survey on the 250 spots which are high to traffic accident rate of pedestrian-vehicle to reset the range of traffic accident on or near the crosswalk considering the characteristics of traffic accident and the pedestrian's walking pattern. Based on the collected data through a video recording survey, this study analyzed the pattern of pedestrians and extracted the variables influenced in the pedestrian's walking pattern. After conducting the regression analysis, this study made the model of measuring the range of traffic accident on the crosswalk. Through all processes these, this study reset the range of traffic accident on the crosswalk which could minimize the disadvantages of pedestrian when they have an accident on the crosswalk and ensure the right of way of pedestrian.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.75-85
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• 2018

PURPOSES : This study aimed to analyze traffic accidents at circular intersections, and discuss accident reduction strategies based on land use and vehicle type. METHODS : Traffic accident data from 2010 to 2014 were collected from the "traffic accident analysis system" (TAAS) data set of the Road Traffic Authority. To develop the accident rate model, a multiple linear regression model was used. Explanatory variables such as geometry and traffic volume were used to develop the models. RESULTS : The main results of the study are as follows. First, it was found that the null hypotheses that land use and vehicle type do not affect the accident rate should be rejected. Second, 16 accident rate models, which are statistically significant (with high $R^2$ values), were developed. Finally, the area of the central island, number of speed humps, entry lane width, circulatory roadway width, bus stops, and pedestrian crossings were analyzed to determine their effect on accidents according to the type of land use and vehicle. CONCLUSIONS : Through the developed accident rate models, it was revealed that the accident factors at circular intersections changed depending on land use and vehicle type. Thus, selecting the appropriate location of bus stops for trucks, widening entry lanes for cars, and installing splitter islands and optimal lighting for motorcycles were determined to be important for reducing the accident rate. Additionally, the evaluation showed that commercial and mixed land use had a weaker effect on accidents than residential land use.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.108-114
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• 2012

Traffic Accident Merging Index(TAMI) is developed for TMACS(Traffic Safety Information Management Complex System). TAMI is calculated by combining 'Severity Index' and 'Frequency'. This paper suggest the accurate TAMI prediction model by time series forecasting. Preventing the traffic accident by accurately predicting it in advance can greatly improve road traffic safety. Searches the model which minimizes the error of 230 local self-governing groups. TAMI of 2007~2009 years data predicts TAMI of 2010. And TAMI of 2010 compares an actual index and a prediction index. And the error is minimized the constant where selects. Exponential Smoothing model was selected. And smoothing constant was decided with 0.59. TAMI Forecasting model provides traffic next year safety information of the local government.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.121-129
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• 2013

PURPOSES : This study deals with the traffic accidents of rotary in Korea. The objective of this study is to develop the accident models by age group based on the various data of rotaries. METHODS : In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to classifying the accident data of 17 rotaries by age, collecting the data of geometric structure, traffic volume and others, and developing the models using SPSS 17.0 and EXCEL. RESULTS : First, 3 multiple linear regression models which were all statistically significant were developed. The value of model of under 30-49 age group were, however, evaluated to be 0.688 and be less than those of other models. Second, the most powerful variables were analyzed to be traffic volume in the model of under 30 age group, circulatory roadway width in the model of 30-49 age group, and the number of approach lane in the model of above 50 age group. Finally, the test results of accident models using RMSE were all evaluated to be fitted to the given data. CONCLUSIONS : This study propose install streetlights, speed humps and widen Circulatory as effective improvements for reduction of accident in rotary.

• Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.178-185
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• 2023

Rapid urbanization and advancements in technology have led to a surge in the number of automobiles, resulting in frequent traffic accidents, and consequently, an increase in human casualties and economic losses. Therefore, there is a need for technology that can predict the risk of traffic accidents to prevent them and minimize the damage caused by them. Traffic accidents occur due to various factors including traffic congestion, the traffic environment, and road conditions. These factors give traffic accidents spatiotemporal characteristics. This paper analyzes traffic accident data to understand the main characteristics of traffic accidents and reconstructs the data in a time series format. Additionally, an LSTM-MLP based model that excellently captures spatiotemporal characteristics was developed and utilized for traffic accident prediction. Experiments have proven that the proposed model is more rational and accurate in predicting the risk of traffic accidents compared to existing models. The traffic accident risk prediction model suggested in this paper can be applied to systems capable of real-time monitoring of road conditions and environments, such as navigation systems. It is expected to enhance the safety of road users and minimize the social costs associated with traffic accidents.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.135-140
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• 2017

This study deals with the safety of roundabout. The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors affecting the pedestrian accidents of roundabout near schools. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to comparatively analyzing the pedestrian accident by number of entry and circulatory lane. The traffic accident data from 2013 to 2015 are collected from TAAS data set of Road Traffic Authority. To develop the pedestrian accident model, the Poisson and negative binomial models has been utilized in this study. Such the dependent variable as the number of pedestrian accidents and the 24 independent variables as geometry, traffic volume and others are used. The main results are as follows. First, 3 Poisson and 2 negative binomial models(${\rho}^2$ of 0.153~0.426) which are all statistically significant are developed. Second, the common variable of models based on the number of circulatory roadway lane is analyzed to be the entry lane width and that of the number of entry lane is evaluated to be the design speed. Also specific variables are evaluated to splitter island, roundabout sign, number of approach road, bus stop and elementary school. Finally, the design speed might be expected to decrease the number of pedestrian accidents near schools.