• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk-sensitive

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Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling Using Qualitative Information Based on Big Data Analytics (빅데이터 기반의 정성 정보를 활용한 부도 예측 모형 구축)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.33-56
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    • 2016
  • Many researchers have focused on developing bankruptcy prediction models using modeling techniques, such as statistical methods including multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis or artificial intelligence techniques containing artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, and support vector machines (SVM), to secure enhanced performance. Most of the bankruptcy prediction models in academic studies have used financial ratios as main input variables. The bankruptcy of firms is associated with firm's financial states and the external economic situation. However, the inclusion of qualitative information, such as the economic atmosphere, has not been actively discussed despite the fact that exploiting only financial ratios has some drawbacks. Accounting information, such as financial ratios, is based on past data, and it is usually determined one year before bankruptcy. Thus, a time lag exists between the point of closing financial statements and the point of credit evaluation. In addition, financial ratios do not contain environmental factors, such as external economic situations. Therefore, using only financial ratios may be insufficient in constructing a bankruptcy prediction model, because they essentially reflect past corporate internal accounting information while neglecting recent information. Thus, qualitative information must be added to the conventional bankruptcy prediction model to supplement accounting information. Due to the lack of an analytic mechanism for obtaining and processing qualitative information from various information sources, previous studies have only used qualitative information. However, recently, big data analytics, such as text mining techniques, have been drawing much attention in academia and industry, with an increasing amount of unstructured text data available on the web. A few previous studies have sought to adopt big data analytics in business prediction modeling. Nevertheless, the use of qualitative information on the web for business prediction modeling is still deemed to be in the primary stage, restricted to limited applications, such as stock prediction and movie revenue prediction applications. Thus, it is necessary to apply big data analytics techniques, such as text mining, to various business prediction problems, including credit risk evaluation. Analytic methods are required for processing qualitative information represented in unstructured text form due to the complexity of managing and processing unstructured text data. This study proposes a bankruptcy prediction model for Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms using both quantitative information, such as financial ratios, and qualitative information acquired from economic news articles. The performance of the proposed method depends on how well information types are transformed from qualitative into quantitative information that is suitable for incorporating into the bankruptcy prediction model. We employ big data analytics techniques, especially text mining, as a mechanism for processing qualitative information. The sentiment index is provided at the industry level by extracting from a large amount of text data to quantify the external economic atmosphere represented in the media. The proposed method involves keyword-based sentiment analysis using a domain-specific sentiment lexicon to extract sentiment from economic news articles. The generated sentiment lexicon is designed to represent sentiment for the construction business by considering the relationship between the occurring term and the actual situation with respect to the economic condition of the industry rather than the inherent semantics of the term. The experimental results proved that incorporating qualitative information based on big data analytics into the traditional bankruptcy prediction model based on accounting information is effective for enhancing the predictive performance. The sentiment variable extracted from economic news articles had an impact on corporate bankruptcy. In particular, a negative sentiment variable improved the accuracy of corporate bankruptcy prediction because the corporate bankruptcy of construction firms is sensitive to poor economic conditions. The bankruptcy prediction model using qualitative information based on big data analytics contributes to the field, in that it reflects not only relatively recent information but also environmental factors, such as external economic conditions.

Comparison of the Cytoprotective Effects of Several Natural and Synthetic Compounds against Oxidative Stress in Human Retinal Pigment Epithelial Cells (인간 망막 색소상피 세포에서 산화적 스트레스에 대한 천연 및 합성 화합물들의 세포 보호 효과 비교)

  • Kim, Da Hye;Kim, Jeong-Hwan;Park, Seh-Kwang;Jeong, Ji-Won;Kim, Mi-Young;Nam, Soo-Wan;Lee, Hyesook;Choi, Yung Hyun
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.126-136
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    • 2021
  • Oxidative stress causes injury to and degeneration of retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells. It is involved in several retinal disorders and leads to vision loss. In the present study, we investigated the effect of 14 kinds of natural compounds and two kinds of synthetic compounds on oxidative stress-induced cellular damage in human PRE cell lines (ARPE-19). From among them, we selected five kinds of compounds, including auranofin, FK-509, hemistepsin A, honokiol, and spermidine, which have inhibitory effects against hydrogen peroxide (H2O2)-mediated cytotoxicity. In addition, we found that four kinds of compounds (excluding auranofin) have protective effects on H2O2-induced mitochondrial dysfunction. Furthermore, the expression of phosphorylation of histone H2AX, a sensitive marker of DNA damage, was markedly up-regulated by H2O2, whereas it was notably down-regulated by FK-506, honokiol, and spermidine treatment. Meanwhile, five kinds of candidate compounds had no effect on H2O2-induced intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels, suggesting that the five candidate compounds have protective effects on oxidative stress-induced cellular damage through the ROS-independent pathway. Taken together, according to the results of H2O2-mediated cellular damage―such as cytotoxicity, apoptosis, mitochondrial dysfunction, and DNA damage―spermidine and FK-506 are the natural and synthetic compounds with the most protective effects against oxidative stress in RPE. Although further studies on the identification of the mechanism responsible are required, the results of the present study suggest the possibility of using spermidine and FK-506 to suppress the risk of retinal disorders.

A Study of Masterplot of Disaster Narrative between Korea, the US and Japan (한·미·일 재난 서사의 마스터플롯 비교 연구)

  • Park, In-Seong
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.39-85
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    • 2020
  • This paper examines the aspects of disaster narrative, which makes the most of the concept of 'masterplot' as a narrative simulation to solve problems. By analyzing and comparing the remnants of 'masterplots' operating in the disaster narratives of Korea, the United States, and Japan, the differences between each country and social community problem recognition and resolution will be discussed. Disaster narrative is the most suitable genre for applying the 'masterplot' toward community problem solving in today's global risk society, and the problem-solving method has cognitive differences for each community. First, in the case of American disaster narratives, civilian experts' response to natural disasters tracks the changes of heroes in today's 'Marvel Comic Universe' (MCU). Compared to the past, the close relationship between heroism and nationalism has been reduced, but the state remains functional even if it is bolstered by the heroes' voluntary cooperation and reflection ability. On the other hand, in Korea's disaster narratives, the disappearance of the country and paralysis of the function are foregrounded. In order to fill the void, a new family narrative occurs, consisting of a righteous army or people abandoned by the state. Korea's disaster narratives are sensitive to changes after the disaster, and the nation's recovery never returns to normal after the disaster. Finally, Japan's disaster narratives are defensive and neurotic. A fully state-led bureaucratic system depicts an obsessive nationalism that seeks to control all disasters, or even counteracts anti-heroic individuals who reject voluntary sacrifices and even abandon disaster conditions This paper was able to diagnose the impact and value of a 'masterplot' today by comparing a series of 'masterplots' and their variations and uses. In a time when the understanding and utilization of 'masterplots' are becoming more and more important in today's world where Over-the top(OTT) services are being provided worldwide, this paper attempt could be a fragmentary model for the distribution and sharing of global stories.

The Effects of Bundle Price Discount Framing and Message Framing on Consumers' Evaluation of Bundle Component (번들가격할인 프레이밍과 메시지 프레이밍이 소비자의 번들구성제품에 대한 평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Sojin
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.55-77
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    • 2011
  • This study investigate the interaction effects of bundle price discount framing and message framing on consumer's attitude of bundle component. Although each effect of bundle price discount framing and message framing has been explored individually, few attempts have been made to invest them jointly. This study tests the interaction effects of bundle price discount framing and message framing on consumer's evaluation of bundle component. Moreover, this research focuses on consumer's evaluation of individual bundle component while the existing research on bundling primarily focused on consumer's evaluation of the bundle. Prior research suggests that consumers are sensitive to the framing of prices and discounts in the presentation of the bundle offer. For example, there is considerable evidence that partitioning or consolidating the prices of a bundle can influence the attractiveness of the bundle offer. Similarly, there is evidence that an equivalent price reduction to the overall bundle, one of the individual products in the bundle, or distributed among the individual products in the bundle can alter the perceived attractiveness of the offer (e.g. Chakravarti, Krish, Paul, and Srivastava 2002; Hamilton and Srivastava 2008; Janiszewski and Cunha 2004; Johnson, Herrmann and Bauer 1999; ; Morwitz, Greenleaf, and Johnson 1998; Yadav 1994; 1995). In line with these earlier research, this research suggests that the bundle type can influence the consumer's evaluation of bundle component. There are two types of bundle - mixed-leader bundle and mixed-joint bundle. In mixed-leader bundling, the price of one of the two products is discounted when the other product is purchased at the regular price. In mixed-joint bundling, a single price is set when the two product are purchased jointly. This study supposes that the teeth whitening product is the leader product in a mixed-leader bundle. So bundle price discount framing is manipulated such as "Buy the teeth whitening product (regular price \80,000) and get 50% discount on the functional toothpaste(regular price \40,000), special set price \100,000" or "Buy the functional toothpaste and the teeth whitening product as a set and get discount for the set, special set price \60,000". Message framing is manipulated through the product claims described in an advertising bill. The positive framing presents that "Over 95% of users achieved the expected 2-3 shades of improvement in two weeks" where as the negative framing presents "less than 5% of users did not achieve the expected 2-3 shades of improvement in two weeks". This study uses hypothetical brand name of the teeth whitening product and the functional toothpaste This study is based on a 2x2 factorial design with bundle discount framing (mixed-leader bundle vs. mixed-joint bundle) and massage framing (positive vs. negative). The dependant variables are consumer's perceived quality and attitude of the teeth whitening product The data reveals that two dependant variables are correlated, so the data is analyzed with two-way MANOVA. This research explores the significant interaction effect of bundle discount framing and message framing on consumer's perceived quality and attitude of the teeth whitening product. When the message framing is positive, consumer's perceived quality and attitude of the teeth whitening product is higher in mixed-leader bundle than mixed-joint bundle condition. However, when the message framing is negative, consumer's evaluation is higher in mixed-joint bundle than mixed-leader bundle. The author explains this result by stating that consumers are less likely to use heuristics such as price-quality association and value discounting hypothesis(Raghubir 2004) in the negative message framing condition. Additionally, consumer's perceived risk of the teeth whitening product in the negative message framing condition can be more reduced by the bundle partner(e.g. the toothpaste) in mixed-joint bundle than mixed-leader bundle. Based on the results, marketing managers are advised to use different bundle type based on message framing of their product.

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Literature Review on Applying Digital Therapeutic Art Therapy for Adolescent Substance Addiction Treatment (청소년 마약류 중독 치료를 위한 디지털치료제 예술치료 적용을 위한 문헌연구)

  • Jiwon Kim;Daniel H. Byun
    • Trans-
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    • v.16
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 2024
  • The advent of digital media has facilitated easy access for adolescents to environments conducive to the purchase of narcotics. In particular, there's an increasing trend in the purchase and consumption of narcotics mediated through Social Network Services (SNS) and messenger services. Adolescents, sensitive to such environments, are at risk of experiencing neurological and mental health issues due to narcotic addiction, increasing their exposure to criminal activities, hence necessitating national-level management and support. Consequently, the quest for sustainable treatment methods for adolescents exposed to narcotics emerges as a critical challenge. In the context of high relapse rates in narcotic addiction, the necessity for cost-effective and user-friendly treatment programs is emphasized. This study conducts a literature review aimed at utilizing digital platforms to create an environment where adolescents can voluntarily participate, focusing on the development of therapeutic content through art. Specifically, it reviews societal perceptions and treatment statuses of adolescent drug addiction, analyzes the impact of narcotic addiction on adolescent brain activity and cognitive function degradation, and explores approaches for developing digital therapeutics to promote the rehabilitation of the addicted brain through analysis of precedential case studies. Moreover, the study investigates the benefits that the integration of digital therapeutic approaches and art therapy can provide in the treatment process and proposes the possibility of enhancing therapeutic effects through various treatment programs such as drama therapy, music therapy, and art therapy. The application of art therapy methods is anticipated to offer positive effects in terms of tool expansion, diversification of expression, data acquisition, and motivation. Through such approaches, an enhancement in the effectiveness of treatments for adolescent narcotic addiction is anticipated. Overall, this study undertakes foundational research for the development of digital therapeutics and related applications, offering economically viable and sustainable treatment options in consideration of the societal context of adolescent narcotic addiction.

Anura Call Monitoring Data Collection and Quality Management through Citizen Participation (시민참여형 무미목 양서류 음성신호 수집 및 품질관리 방안)

  • Kyeong-Tae Kim;Hyun-Jung Lee;Won-Kyong Song
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.230-245
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    • 2024
  • Amphibians, sensitive to external environmental changes, serve as bioindicator species for assessing alterations or disturbances in local ecosystems. It is known that one-third of amphibian species within the order Anura are at risk of extinction due to anthropogenic threats such as habitat destruction and fragmentation caused by urbanization. To develop effective protection and conservation strategies for anuran amphibians, species surveys that account for population characteristics are essential. This study aimed to investigate the potential for citizen participation in ecological monitoring using the mating calls of anura species. We also proposed suitable quality control measures to mitigate errors and biases, ensuring the extraction of reliable species occurrence data. The Citizen Science project was carried out nationwide from April 1 to August 31, 2022, targeting 12 species of anura amphibians in Korea. Citizens voluntarily participated in voice signal monitoring, where they listened to anura species' mating calls and recorded them using a mobile application. Additionally, we established a quality control process to extract reliable species occurrence data, categorizing errors and biases from citizen-collected data into three levels: omission, commission, and incorrect identification. A total of 6,808 observations were collected during the citizen participation in anura species vocalization monitoring. Through the quality control process, errors and biases were identified in 1,944 (28.55%) of the 6,808 data. The most common type of error was omission, accounting for 922 cases (47.43%), followed by incorrect identification with 540 cases (27.78%), and commission with 482 cases (24.79%). During the Citizen Science project, we successfully recorded the mating calls of 10 out of the 12 anuran amphibian species in Korea, excluding the Asian toads (Bufo gargarizans Cantor), Korean brown frog (Rana coreana). Difficulties in collecting mating calls were primarily attributed to challenges in observing due to population decline or discrepancies between the breeding season of non-emergent individuals and the timing of the citizen science project. This study represents the first investigation of distribution status and species emergence data collection through mating calls of anura species in Korea based on citizen participation. It can serve as a foundation for designing future bioacoustic monitoring that incorporates citizen science and quality control measures for citizen science data.

Development of Conformal Radiotherapy with Respiratory Gate Device (호흡주기에 따른 방사선입체조형치료법의 개발)

  • Chu Sung Sil;Cho Kwang Hwan;Lee Chang Geol;Suh Chang Ok
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.41-52
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : 3D conformal radiotherapy, the optimum dose delivered to the tumor and provided the risk of normal tissue unless marginal miss, was restricted by organ motion. For tumors in the thorax and abdomen, the planning target volume (PTV) is decided including the margin for movement of tumor volumes during treatment due to patients breathing. We designed the respiratory gating radiotherapy device (RGRD) for using during CT simulation, dose planning and beam delivery at identical breathing period conditions. Using RGRD, reducing the treatment margin for organ (thorax or abdomen) motion due to breathing and improve dose distribution for 3D conformal radiotherapy. Materials and Methods : The internal organ motion data for lung cancer patients were obtained by examining the diaphragm in the supine position to find the position dependency. We made a respiratory gating radiotherapy device (RGRD) that is composed of a strip band, drug sensor, micro switch, and a connected on-off switch in a LINAC control box. During same breathing period by RGRD, spiral CT scan, virtual simulation, and 3D dose planing for lung cancer patients were peformed, without an extended PTV margin for free breathing, and then the dose was delivered at the same positions. We calculated effective volumes and normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) using dose volume histograms for normal lung, and analyzed changes in doses associated with selected NTCP levels and tumor control probabilities (TCP) at these new dose levels. The effects of 3D conformal radiotherapy by RGRD were evaluated with DVH (Dose Volume Histogram), TCP, NTCP and dose statistics. Results : The average movement of a diaphragm was 1.5 cm in the supine position when patients breathed freely. Depending on the location of the tumor, the magnitude of the PTV margin needs to be extended from 1 cm to 3 cm, which can greatly increase normal tissue irradiation, and hence, results in increase of the normal tissue complications probabiliy. Simple and precise RGRD is very easy to setup on patients and is sensitive to length variation (+2 mm), it also delivers on-off information to patients and the LINAC machine. We evaluated the treatment plans of patients who had received conformal partial organ lung irradiation for the treatment of thorax malignancies. Using RGRD, the PTV margin by free breathing can be reduced about 2 cm for moving organs by breathing. TCP values are almost the same values $(4\~5\%\;increased)$ for lung cancer regardless of increasing the PTV margin to 2.0 cm but NTCP values are rapidly increased $(50\~70\%\;increased)$ for upon extending PTV margins by 2.0 cm. Conclusion : Internal organ motion due to breathing can be reduced effectively using our simple RGRD. This method can be used in clinical treatments to reduce organ motion induced margin, thereby reducing normal tissue irradiation. Using treatment planning software, the dose to normal tissues was analyzed by comparing dose statistics with and without RGRD. Potential benefits of radiotherapy derived from reduction or elimination of planning target volume (PTV) margins associated with patient breathing through the evaluation of the lung cancer patients treated with 3D conformal radiotherapy.

The Role of Tumor Necrosis Factor-$\alpha$ and Interleukin-$1{\beta}$ as Predictable Markers for Development of Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Septic Syndrome (패혈증 증후군환자에서 성인성 호흡곤란 증후군 발생의 예측 지표서의 혈중 Tumor Necrosis Factor-$\alpha$와 Interleukin-$1{\beta}$에 관한 연구)

  • Koh, Youn-Suck;Jang, Yun-Hae;Kim, Woo-Sung;Lee, Jae-Dam;Oh, Soon-Hwan;Kim, Won-Dong
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.452-461
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    • 1994
  • Background: Tumor necrosis factor(TNF)-$\alpha$ and Interleukin(lL)-$1{\beta}$ are thought to play a major role in the pathogenesis of the septic syndrome, which is frequently associated with adult respiratory distress syndrome(ARDS). In spite of many reports for the role of TNF-$\alpha$ in the pathogenesis of ARDS, including human studies, it has been reported that TNF-$\alpha$ is not sensitive and specific marker for impending ARDS. But there is a possibility that the results were affected by the diversity of pathogenetic mechanisms leading to the ARDS because of various underlying disorders of the study group in the previous reports. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the roles of TNF-$\alpha$ and IL-$1{\beta}$ as a predictable marker for development of ARDS in the patients with septic syndrome, in which the pathogenesis is believed to be mainly cytokine-mediated. Methods: Thirty-six patients of the septic syndrome hospitalized in the intensive care units of the Asan Medical Center were studied. Sixteens suffered from ARDS, whereas the remaining 20 were at the risk of developing ARDS(acute hypoxemic respiratory failure, AHRF). In all patients venous blood samples were collected in heparin-coated tubes at the time of enrollment, at 24 and 72 h thereafter. TNF-$\alpha$ and IL-$1{\beta}$ was measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). All data are expressed as median with interquartile range. Results: 1) Plama TNF-$\alpha$ levels: Plasma TNF-$\beta$ levels were less than 10pg/mL, which is lowest detection value of the kit used in this study within the range of the $mean{\pm}2SD$, in all of the normal controls, 8 of 16 subjects of ARDS and in 8 in 20 subjects of AHRF. Plasma TNF-$\alpha$ levels from patients with ARDS were 10.26pg/mL(median; <10-16.99pg/mL, interquartile range) and not different from those of patients at AHRF(10.82, <10-20.38pg/mL). There was also no significant difference between pre-ARDS(<10, <10-15.32pg/mL) and ARDS(<10, <10-10.22pg/mL). TNF-$\alpha$ levels were significantly greater in the patients with shock than the patients without shock(12.53pg/mL vs. <10pg/mL) (p<0.01). There was no statistical significance between survivors(<10, <10-12.92pg/mL) and nonsurvivors(11.80, <10-20.8pg/mL) (P=0.28) in the plasma TNF-$\alpha$ levels. 2) Plasma IL-$1{\beta}$ levels: Plasma IL-$1{\beta}$ levels were less than 0.3ng/mL, which is the lowest detection value of the kit used in this study, in one of each patients group. There was no significant difference in IL-$1{\beta}$ levels of the ARDS(2.22, 1.37-8.01ng/mL) and of the AHRF(2.13, 0.83-5.29ng/mL). There was also no significant difference between pre-ARDS(2.53, <0.3-8.34ngfmL) and ARDS(5.35, 0.66-11.51ng/mL), and between patients with septic shock and patients without shock (2.51, 1.28-8.34 vs 1.46, 0.15-2.13ng/mL). Plasma IL-$1{\beta}$ levels were significantly different between survivors(1.37, 0.4-2.36ng/mL) and nonsurvivors(2.84, 1.46-8.34ng/mL). Conclusion: Plasma TNF-$\alpha$ and IL-$1{\beta}$ level are not a predictable marker for development of ARDS. But TNF-$\alpha$ is a marker for shock in septic syndrome. These result could not exclude a possibility of pathophysiologic roles of TNF-$\alpha$ and IL-$1{\beta}$ in acute lung injury because these cytokine could be locally produced and exert its effects within the lungs.

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