• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.61-69
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• 2014

Purpose - Many studies report that returns on hedge portfolios that eliminate particular risk types are abnormal from traditional asset pricing models' perspectives. This study examines the pervasiveness of anomalous returns conditioned on business cycle and group size. Research design, data, and methodology - Using KOSPI and KOSDAQ market data from July 1991 to December 2013, we categorize stocks into appropriately sized groups, and dichotomize our sample periods into expansion and recession periods then, we construct hedge portfolios by sorting stocks by anomaly variables and calculate their returns. Results - Four anomalies, including earnings yield, net stock issue, total asset growth, and liquidity appear pervasive across all groups for the entire sample period. However, only the hedge returns of net stock issues are significant across all group sizes during both expansion and recession. Conclusions - A net stock issue can be an appropriate proxy for expected growth of book equity for all group sizes in recessions. This finding could provide insights to investment industry participants and to researchers interested in the relationship between expected growth of book equity and business cycle risk.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2011

This paper discusses the components of a guaranteed maximum price (GMP) and proposes a framework for the development of GMPs as contract payment provisions for construction manager-at-risk (CMR) and design-build (DB) contracts for transportation projects. The framework is the synthesis of a comprehensive literature review, a content analysis of CMR and DB solicitation documents and contracts, and case study project output from twelve projects in nine states worth $3.1 billion. The research also discusses the development of three common types of contingencies that are often utilized in projects with GMPs. The study concludes that owners should specify the structure of the GMP and its components to enhance clarity and understanding of the GMP's composition. It recommends that this structure be included in the CMR and DB solicitation documents so that pricing proposals can be formulated in a manner that is consistent with the contract payment provisions that will be useful to practitioners that need to implement GMP-based contracts.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.148-157
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• 2011

Objectives: Although compensation for occupational injuries and diseases is guaranteed in almost all nations, countries vary greatly with respect to how they organize workers' compensation systems. In this paper, we focus on three aspects of workers' compensation insurance in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries - types of systems, employers' funding mechanisms, and coverage for injured workers - and their impacts on the actual frequencies of occupational injuries and diseases. Methods: We estimated a panel data fixed effect model with cross-country OECD and International Labor Organization data. We controlled for country fixed effects, relevant aggregate variables, and dummy variables representing the occupational accidents data source. Results: First, the use of a private insurance system is found to lower the occupational accidents. Second, the use of risk-based pricing for the payment of employer raises the occupational injuries and diseases. Finally, the wider the coverage of injured workers is, the less frequent the workplace accidents are. Conclusion: Private insurance system, fixed flat rate employers' funding mechanism, and higher coverage of compensation scheme are significantly and positively correlated with lower level of occupational accidents compared with the public insurance system, risk-based funding system, and lower coverage of compensation scheme.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.113-121
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• 2010

Since the cut-down of the purchasing price of the feed in tariff(FIT) in 2008, the numbers of photovoltaic projects get decreased, contrary to investment expansion policy of government on renewable energy. The root cause of the decrease is the irrationality of the current purchasing price structure of FIT as well as the adversity of fund raising due to the global financial crisis. This study proposes the FIT calculating model (Cost & Benefit Risk Based Purchase Price Process : CBRP3) reflecting the fluctuation of cost and benefit risks. The first step is to establish the photovoltaic generation alternatives, and to calculate each distribution data of the investment and the power generation quantity. The FIT for each alternative is, then, assessed through simulations. Finally the proposed FIT scheme is compared to the present FIT scheme and future study subjects are derived.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.513-522
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• 2014

Using the assumption that the price of a stock follows a geometric Brownian motion with constant volatility, Black and Scholes (BS) derived a formula that gives the price of a European call option on the stock as a function of the stock price, the strike price, the time to maturity, the risk-free interest rate, the dividend rate paid by the stock, and the volatility of the stock's return. However, implied volatilities of BS method tend to depend on the stock prices and the time to maturity in practice. To address this shortcoming, we estimate the implied volatility function as a function of the strike priceand the time to maturity for data consisting of the daily prices for KOSPI200 call options from January 2007 to May 2009 using support vector regression (SVR), the multiple additive regression trees (MART) algorithm, and ordinary least squaress (OLS) regression. In conclusion, use of MART or SVR in the BS pricing model reduced both RMSE and MAE, compared to the OLS-based BS pricing model.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.127-144
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• 1995

Previous literature in financial economics documents the existence of a liquidity premium in expected returns, measured by the bid-ask spread. This study provides a more comprehensive test of the egect of liquidity on common stock returns by including trading volume as an additional liquidity measure. we find that trading volume is a relevant measure of liquidity, and affects expected returns even aher controlling for the effects of systematic risk, firm size, and the relative bid-ask spread. We also find that trading volume complements the bid-ask spread as a liquidity measure, and provides additional information about the liquidity premium. The liquidity effect emerges in non-January months as a volume effect, in addition to the spread effect in January documented by Eleswarapu and Reinganum(1993).

• 한국IT서비스학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.485-492
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• 2007

정보화 사업에서 발생할 수 있는 위험(Risk)은 다양하다. 정보화 사업 관련 위험 요인 중 가장 대표적이고 보편적인 것은 발주 및 제안단계에서 발주자가 가진 요구사항의 불명확을 꼽을 수 있는데, 이로 인해 정보화 사업 수행 도중 요구범위 증가와 변경, 그리고 사업원가 구조의 악성화가 발생하게 됨은 자명하다. 그러나 안타까운 현실은 그 동안 우리나라 정보화 사업의 관행이 요구사항 불명확이라는 잠재적 위험 아래에서도 발주자와 사업자 간의 계약이 보호장치가 미흡한 확정가(firm fixed price) 방식으로 수립되어 왔다는 것이다. 확정가로 계약이 수립될 경우 사업자는 발주자의 요구사항 불명확으로 인해 파생된 원가 위험까지 불합리하게 책임져야 하는 고리에 묶이게 된다. 이러한 문제를 본질적으로 해결하는 한가지 방법은 발주자와 사업자간의 정보화 사업 획득 절차를 혁신하는 것인데, 본 논문은 이를 위해 가칭, 한국형 정보화 산업 활성화 획득 절차(KIPAP: Korea If Proliferation Acquisition Process)의 기본 개념을 고안하여 소개한다. 이 획득 절차는 정보화 사업이 내재하고 있는 요구사항의 불확실성을 계량화, 가시화하여, 그 정도에 따라 차등화된 계약방식의 선정방법 을 제시한다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.507-518
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• 2017

Volatility plays a crucial role in theory and applications of asset pricing, optimal portfolio allocation, and risk management. This paper proposes a combined model of autoregressive moving average (ARFIMA), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GRACH), and skewed-t error distribution to accommodate important features of volatility data; long memory, heteroscedasticity, and asymmetric error distribution. A fully Bayesian approach is proposed to estimate the parameters of the model simultaneously, which yields parameter estimates satisfying necessary constraints in the model. The approach can be easily implemented using a free and user-friendly software JAGS to generate Markov chain Monte Carlo samples from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters. The method is illustrated by using a daily volatility index from Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). JAGS codes for model specification is provided in the Appendix.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.151-161
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• 2014

KOSPI 200 index options market has the highest trading volume in the global options markets. The risk and return structure of options contracts are very complex. Volatility complicates options trading because volatility plays a central role in options pricing process. This study develops a trading system for KOSPI 200 index options trading using KOSPI 200 volatility index. We design a database system to handle the complex options information such as price, volume, maturity, strike price, and volatility using Oracle DBMS. We then develop options trading strategies to test how the volatility index is related to the prices of complicated options trading strategies. Back test procedure is presented with PL/SQL of Oracle DBMS. We simulate the suggested trading system using historical data set of KOSPI 200 index options from December 2008 to April 2012.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.61-74
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• 2014

This paper presents accurate and efficient numerical methods for calculating the sensitivities of two-asset European options, the Greeks. The Greeks are important financial instruments in management of economic value at risk due to changing market conditions. The option pricing model is based on the Black-Scholes partial differential equation. The model is discretized by using a finite difference method and resulting discrete equations are solved by means of an operator splitting method. For Delta, Gamma, and Theta, we investigate the effect of high-order discretizations. For Rho and Vega, we develop an accurate and robust automatic algorithm for finding an optimal value. A cash-or-nothing option is taken to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm for calculating the Greeks. The results show that the new treatment gives automatic and robust calculations for the Greeks.