• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.75-89
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• 2014

PURPOSES : This study evaluates the economic value of national highway construction projects using Real Option Pricing Models. METHODS : We identified the option premium for uncertainties associated with flexibilities according to the future's change in national highway construction projects. In order to evaluate value of future's underlying asset, we calculated the volatility of the unit price per year for benefit estimation such as VOTS, VOCS, VICS, VOPCS and VONCS that the "Transportation Facility Investment Evaluation Guidelines" presented. RESULTS : We evaluated the option premium of underlying asset through a case study of the actual national highway construction projects using ROPM. And in order to predict the changes in the option value of the future's underlying asset, we evaluated the changes of option premium for future's uncertainties by the defer of the start of construction work, the contract of project scale, and the abandon of project during pre-land compensation stages that were occurred frequently in the highway construction projects. Finally we analyzed the sensitivity of the underlying asset using volatility, risk free rate and expiration date of option. CONCLUSIONS : We concluded that a highway construction project has economic value even though static NPV had a negative(-) value because of the sum of the existing static NPV and the option premium for the future's uncertainties associated with flexibilities.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society of Environmental Toocicology Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.55-56
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• 2004

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.48-53
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• 2007

A project manager of construction project must analyze risks which might happen during the construction phase and prepare a restoration method against the risks in order to get the successful project's accomplishment. Insurance is a representative kind of risk transfer method and an institution which prevents damages of the insured. In spite of increasing the ratio of construction insurance policy in the construction industry, project managers have regarded the insurance as a formal action in the budget through insurance companies' guides. These aspects make them not be able to valuate the reasonableness of premium rate and the real amount of the risks. This thesis is to present an improved method of construction insurance contract. Firstly, the status of the current construction insurance system have been anlyzed and the problems have been deducted. Secondly the development direction against the problems is presented in the research. Lastly, the procedure model is proposed for acquiring the resonable premium rate of insurance.

• PNF and Movement
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.101-111
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• 2024

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate physical activity as a risk factor for neck pain recurrence using the National Health Insurance Data Sharing Service that utilizes a nationwide cohort in South Korea. Methods: Medical records spanning a two-year period were extracted from the National Health Insurance database for 541,937 patients who sought healthcare services for neck pain (ICD 10 codes: M54.2) in 2020 and completed the national health examination survey. Selected variables for analysis included age, gender, health insurance premium decile, regional health vulnerability index, body mass index (BMI), acuity, blood pressure, and types of physical activity. A mixed-effect multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine the recurrence rate of neck pain and identify risk factors for neck pain recurrence. Results: Among the participants, 124,433 patients (23.0%) experienced a recurrence of neck pain within two years, with higher recurrence rates observed among older individuals and females. Regression analysis revealed that the risk of neck pain recurrence increased with age (OR=1.51), being female (OR= 1.10), being a medical aid recipient (OR=1.51), and having anaerobic (OR=1.04) or vigorous physical activities (OR=1.06). By contrast, an increased health insurance premium decile (OR=0.96) and having moderate physical activity (OR=0.97) were associated with a decreased risk of neck pain recurrence. Conclusion: This study highlights the importance of moderate physical activity as an effective strategy for reducing the recurrence of nonspecific neck pain, underscoring the necessity for personalized physical activity programs for patients.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.937-942
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• 2009

In this paper, a continuous-time risk process in an insurance business is considered, where the premium rate is constant and the claim process forms a compound Poisson process. We say that a ruin occurs if the surplus of the risk process becomes negative. It is practically impossible to calculate analytically the ruin probability because the theoretical formula of the ruin probability contains the recursive convolutions and infinite sum. Hence, many authors have suggested approximation formulas of the ruin probability. We introduce a new approximation formula of the ruin probability which extends the well-known De Vylder's and exponential approximation formulas. We compare our approximation formula with the existing ones and show numerically that our approximation formula gives closer values to the true ruin probability in most cases.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.26 no.1_2
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• pp.191-201
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• 2008

In this paper, we consider an insurance risk model governed by a compound Binomial arrival claim process and by a compound Binomial arrival premium process. Some formulas for the probabilities of ruin and the distribution of ruin time are given, we also prove the integral equation of the ultimate ruin probability and obtain the Lundberg inequality by the discrete martingale approach.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.73-101
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• 1996

We show assets can be classified into diversifiable risks and non-diversifiable risks based on aggregate endowment and spanning so that in equilibrium agents eliminate diversifiable risks which must have zero values. Consequently, the benchmark portfolio that represents a pricing operator should have only a non-diversifiable risk, aggregate endowment should earn a positive risk premium over a riskless asset, and, even in incomplete markets, there should be a pricing operator represented by a function of aggregate endowment if any asset mean-independent of aggregate endowment is diversifiable. These results apply to both the CAPM and a representative agent model.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 2012

An assumption for fractional ages should be made to obtain the net premium of the whole life insurance payable at the moment of death based on the life table. Most existing studies adopt the assumption of the uniform distribution(UDD) for the fractional ages. However, as seasonal changes may frequently lead to the deaths of elderly people, it is questionable whether the assumption of the uniform distribution is the most appropriate one for the entire age intervals. In this article, based on a real mortality data set, the appropriateness of UDD assumption for the entire age intervals is examined. And then we propose a more suitable model for fractional ages. We analyze the effect of UDD assumption through the net premium and the corresponding risk when the true distribution for the fractional ages is not uniform.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.71-86
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• 2010

In life insurance, the net premium is derived based on the expected life time distribution and expected interest rate. The losses or risks of the insurer are significantly affected by the obtained net premium. Thus, in life insurance, these two factors, the life time distribution and expected interest rate, are considered as important influential factors. In this paper, we investigate the effect of these influential factors on the net premiums, management risks, and the probability of losses. Furthermore, relative influence of these factors is also studied.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.321-333
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• 2013

Credibility theory is one of important theories in actuarial science to produce proper insurance premium. In this paper, new partial credibilities are proposed and introduced with widely accepted credibility theories such as rule of relative exposure volume, square root rule, B$\ddot{u}$hlmann credibility and B$\ddot{u}$hlmann-Straub credibility. Also, with credibilities estimated by current and newly suggested, the performance of the accuracy for estimating the risk is compared through real data analysis and we show that the newly suggested methods are improving the performance by reducing the error.