• 대한의용생체공학회:의공학회지
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• 제42권6호
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• pp.287-294
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• 2021

Cardiotoxicity assessment of all drugs has been performed according to the ICH guidelines since 2005. Non-clinical evaluation S7B has focused on the hERG assay, which has a low specificity problem. The comprehensive in vitro proarrhythmia assay (CiPA) project was initiated to correct this problem, which presented a model for classifying the Torsade de pointes (TdP)-induced risk of drugs as biomarkers calculated through an in silico ventricular model. In this study, we propose a TdP-induced risk group classifier of artificial neural network (ANN)-based. The model was trained with 12 drugs and tested with 16 drugs. The ANN model was performed according to nine features, seven features, five features as an individual ANN model input, and the model with the highest performance was selected and compared with the classification performance of the qNet input logistic regression model. When the five features model was used, the results were AUC 0.93 in the high-risk group, AUC 0.73 in the intermediate-risk group, and 0.92 in the low-risk group. The model's performance using qNet was lower than the ANN model in the high-risk group by 17.6% and in the low-risk group by 29.5%. This study was able to express performance in the three risk groups, and it is a model that solved the problem of low specificity, which is the problem of hERG assay.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.13-20
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• 2006

Objectives: To propose a risk-adjustment model with using insurance claims data and to analyze whether or not the outcomes of non-emergent and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) differed between the low- and high-volume hospitals for the patients who are at different levels of surgical risk. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study that used the 2002 data of the national health insurance claims. The study data set included the patient level data as well as all the ICD-10 diagnosis and procedure codes that were recorded in the claims. The patient's biological, admission and comorbidity information were used in the risk-adjustment model. The risk factors were adjusted with the logistic regression model. The subjects were classified into five groups based on the predicted surgical risk: minimal (<0.5%), low (0.5% to 2%), moderate (2% to 5%), high (5% to 20%), and severe (=20%). The differences between the low- and high-volume hospitals were assessed in each of the five risk groups. Results: The final risk-adjustment model consisted of ten risk factors and these factors were found to have statistically significant effects on patient mortality. The C-statistic (0.83) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test ($x^2=6.92$, p=0.55) showed that the model's performance was good. A total of 30 low-volume hospitals (971 patients) and 4 high-volume hospitals (1,087 patients) were identified. Significant differences for the in-hospital mortality were found between the low- and high-volume hospitals for the high (21.6% vs. 7.2%, p=0.00) and severe (44.4% vs. 11.8%, p=0.00) risk patient groups. Conclusions: Good model performance showed that insurance claims data can be used for comparing hospital mortality after adjusting for the patients' risk. Negative correlation was existed between surgery volume and in-hospital mortality. However, only patients in high and severe risk groups had such a relationship.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제41권6호
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• pp.849-858
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• 2009

Risk caused by safety-critical instrumentation and control (I&C) systems considerably affects overall plant risk. As digitalization of safety-critical systems in nuclear power plants progresses, a risk model of a digitalized safety system is required and must be included in a plant safety model in order to assess this risk effect on the plant. Unique features of a digital system cause some challenges in risk modeling. This article aims at providing an overview of the issues related to the development of a static fault-tree-based risk model. We categorize the complicated issues of digital system probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) into four groups based on their characteristics: hardware module issues, software issues, system issues, and safety function issues. Quantification of the effect of these issues dominates the quality of a developed risk model. Recent research activities for addressing various issues, such as the modeling framework of a software-based system, the software failure probability and the fault coverage of a self monitoring mechanism, are discussed. Although these issues are interrelated and affect each other, the categorized and systematic approach suggested here will provide a proper insight for analyzing risk from a digital system.

• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.74-91
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• 2023

This study provides an in-depth comparison and analysis of various risk assessment models widely used in modern industries, and proposes the most suitable model for risk assessment of offshore wind power in Korea. The assessment models were selected by considering various factors such as the purpose of risk assessment, stakeholder requirements, and characteristics of offshore wind power. We also emphasized the importance of using different risk assessment models in combination in situations of high uncertainty. To systematize the combination of risk assessment models, we used systems engineering which is effective to develop a new system. Systems engineering was used to define the complete, traceable functions from site requirements, and model-based systems engineering was used to manage the design information from requirements to detailed functions in a single model. The developed risk assessment module provide automatic conversion between risk assessment models to enable risk assessment suitable for offshore wind power. The functionality and usability of the offshore wind risk assessment module were verified by the evaluation of three wind power experts.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.207-215
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• 2015

Safety' can be used in a variety of ways and may also have different meanings when used in theoretical field and routinely used. In this paper, the 'safety' means that human injury, fire or physical accident condition does not occur while used by the end-user. The meaning of safety may be different by era and culture. Even in contemporary era, the meaning can be used differently by country, region and culture. As the rights of consumers are increasingly reinforced, we can expect the acceptable risk or safety level can rise higher. In this paper, the R-map of Japan and the European risk assessment guidelines (RAPEX) were reviewed considering domestic incidents database status and its applicability. Because it is difficult to make a model based on a R-map, a revised model was developed mainly based on European Assessment Model with a combination of the important characteristics of Japan model R-map. Also utilizing this revised model, the availability as a new risk assessment model was confirmed by comparing the test results for the same scenarios to the other risk assessment model (RAPEX/RAG).

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.95-115
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• 2013

In traditional inventory models, purchase prices of raw materials are assumed to be fixed and have no effect on the optimal choice of inventory policies. However, when purchase prices fluctuate continuously over time, inventory costs are heavily affected by purchasing prices. Risk-averse inventory model decides order quantity and ordering time by considering not just purchase prices but also the risk from the discrepancy between estimated prices and realized prices. In this paper, we propose a myopic inventory policy which incorporates price risk into deciding ordering time and quantities. While the existing risk-averse model has no mechanism to reallocate inventories already purchased for a specific future period, the revised one reallocates initial inventories of each period to other future periods so that it can avoid purchasing raw materials at high prices. Experimental results demonstrate that the revised model outperforms the existing one in respect of total cost and variability.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.63-68
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to verify the relation between the risk index using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and the risk index using Computing Model. For doing the objective, this research classified 22 work types in architectural construction work from the analysis Korean architectural standard specification and Korea occupational safety & health agency code. Based on the classified 22 work types in architectural construction work, the risk index of each work type was calculated by AHP and Computing Model. For verifying the correlation of risk index between AHP and Computing Model methods, SAS version 8.0 System, which is one of the statistics programs, was used.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.85-99
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• 1995

Increasingly, risk analysis is becoming important ingredients in achieving the successful implementation and application in the area of the project management. The project management system is designed to manage or control the project resources on a given activity within time, cost and performance so called TPPM (Total Productive Project Management). In this research, a risk analysis model misproposed to identify potential problem areas, quantify the risks, and generated the chice of the action that can be taken to reduce the risk. In addition two analysis models are proposed : 1) risk factor model and 2) network simulation model using VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique ). The objective of the remodels is to estimate the schedule, cost performance risks. These proposed quantitative models for project risk analysis are proving its value for the project managers who need to assess the risk of changes in cost, schedule, or performance. The proposed models will be used in the area of project selection, evaluation and the allocation of project resources.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.191-206
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• 2010

Windborne debris is a major cause of structural damage during severe windstorms and hurricanes owing to its direct impact on building envelopes as well as to the 'chain reaction' failure mechanism it induces by interacting with wind pressure damage. Estimation of debris risk is an important component in evaluating wind damage risk to residential developments. A debris risk model developed by the authors enables one to analytically aggregate damage threats to a building from different types of debris originating from neighboring buildings. This model is extended herein to a general debris risk analysis methodology that is then incorporated into a vulnerability model accounting for the temporal evolution of the interaction between pressure damage and debris damage during storm passage. The current paper (Part I) introduces the debris risk analysis methodology, establishing the mathematical modeling framework. Stochastic models are proposed to estimate the probability distributions of debris trajectory parameters used in the method. It is shown that model statistics can be estimated from available information from wind-tunnel experiments and post-damage surveys. The incorporation of the methodology into vulnerability modeling is described in Part II.

• 산업기술연구
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• 제29권A호
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• pp.101-110
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• 2009

Due to frequent occurrence of a localized torrential downpour caused by global warming and change of outflow tendency caused by rapid urbanization and industrialization, risk analysis must be carried out in levee design with uncertainty. In this study, reliability analysis was introduced to quantitatively evaluate the overtopping risk of levee by the uncertainty. First of all, breaking function was established as a function of flood stage and height of levee. All variables of breaking function were considered as random variables following any distribution functions, and the risk was defined as the possibility that the flood stage is formed higher than height of levee. The risk evaluation model was developed with AFDA (Approximate Full Distribution Approach). The flood stage computed by 2-D numerical model FESWMS-2DH was used as input data for the model of levee risk evaluation. Risk for levee submergence were quantitatively presented for levee of Wol-Song-Cheon.