• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk index

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Study on Risk Assesment of Debris Flow using GIS (GIS를 이용한 토석류 위험성 평가에 관한 연구 (소규모 개발지역 중심으로))

  • Chang, In-Soo;Park, Eun-Young;Park, Ki-Bum;Kim, Sungwon
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.225-234
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    • 2013
  • The relationship between debris flow and topographical factors is essential for the reliable estimation of soil loss. The objective of this paper is to estimate stability index and soil loss for assessing landsliding risk caused by debris flow. SIMAP and RUSLE are used to estimate stability index and soil loss, respectively. The landsliding risk area estimated by using SIMAP is found to be different from the large land area estimated by RUSLE. It is found that the spatial distribution of soil cover significantly influences landsliding risk area. Results also indicate that stability index and soil loss, estimated by soil cover factor, improve the assessment of landsliding risk.

Transmission Network Expansion Planning Using Risk Level Improvement Index (위험도 개선 지수를 이용한 송전계통 계획 수립에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Yul
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.63 no.6
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    • pp.752-757
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    • 2014
  • This paper attempts to evaluate the impact of power plant penetration on constraints of a transmission network and proposes a methodology based on risk level, which can evaluate the condition of the network and facilities intuitionally. Furthermore, based on this methodology, RLII(Risk Level Improvement Index) is proposed in order to establish comprehensive TNEP(Transmission Network Expansion Planning) from a viewpoint of ISO(Independent System Operator). In order to verify the proposed methods in this paper, real power systems in Incheon and Shiheung areas, south Korea are applied to the case study.

A Determining Contingency Ranking Using the Weather Effects of the Power System (날씨효과를 고려한 전력계통의 상정사고 순위 결정)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Young;Park, Jong-Jin;Kim, Jin-O;Kim, Tae-Gyun;Choo, Jin-Bu
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.134-136
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    • 2003
  • The deregulated electricity market is operated with respect to theory of economical efficiency, and therefore, the system operator requires data with fast contingency ranking for security of the bulk power system. This paper compares the weather dependant probabilistic risk index(PRI) with the system performance index for power flow in the IEEE-RBTS. also, the system performance index for power flow presents the power system stability. The probabilistic risk index can be classified into normal weather and adverse weather. This paper proposes calculation method using the probabilistic risk index in determining contingency ranking requiring for security under the deregulated electricity market.

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Development of a Risk Index for Prediction of Abnormal Pap Test Results in Serbia

  • Vukovic, Dejana;Antic, Ljiljana;Vasiljevic, Mladenko;Antic, Dragan;Matejic, Bojana
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.8
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    • pp.3527-3531
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    • 2015
  • Background: Serbia is one of the countries with highest incidence and mortality rates for cervical cancer in Central and South Eastern Europe. Introducing a risk index could provide a powerful means for targeting groups at high likelihood of having an abnormal cervical smear and increase efficiency of screening. The aim of the present study was to create and assess validity ofa index for prediction of an abnormal Pap test result. Materials and Methods: The study population was drawn from patients attending Departments for Women's Health in two primary health care centers in Serbia. Out of 525 respondents 350 were randomly selected and data obtained from them were used as the index creation dataset. Data obtained from the remaining 175 were used as an index validation data set. Results: Age at first intercourse under 18, more than 4 sexual partners, history of STD and multiparity were attributed statistical weights 16, 15, 14 and 13, respectively. The distribution of index scores in index-creation data set showed that most respondents had a score 0 (54.9%). In the index-creation dataset mean index score was 10.3 (SD-13.8), and in the validation dataset the mean was 9.1 (SD=13.2). Conclusions: The advantage of such scoring system is that it is simple, consisting of only four elements, so it could be applied to identify women with high risk for cervical cancer that would be referred for further examination.

Usefulness of Triglyceride and Glucose Index to Predict the Risk of Hyperuricemia in Korean Adults (한국 성인에서 고요산혈증 위험을 예측하기 위한 중성지방-혈당 지수의 유용성)

  • Shin, Kyung-A;Kim, Eun Jae
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.283-290
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the triglyceride and glucose(TyG) index to predict the risk of hyperuricemia in Korean adults. This study included 14,266 men and 9,033 women over 20 years old who underwent health screenings from 2017 to 2019 at a general hospital in Seoul. To confirm the risk of hyperuricemia and predictive ability of the TyG index, logistic regression analysis and ROC curves were obtained. The accuracy of the TyG index for predicting hyperuricemia was 0.68, 0.61 for men and 0.67 for women(respectively p<0.001). The risk of hyperuricemia in the TyG index was 1.69 times higher in the fourth quartile than in the first quartile, 2.03 times higher in men and 2.07 times higher in women(respectively p<0.05). Thus the TyG index was not of high diagnostic usefulness as a screening test for hyperuricemia, but it was related to the TyG index and hyperuricemia.

An Empirical Study on the Risk Index of Korean Securities Industry (우리나라 증권산업의 위험지수 작성에 관한 실증연구)

  • Chang, Kook-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.131-153
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    • 2008
  • This paper calculates the Risk Index of Korean securities industry that summarizes the information contained in seventeen financial indicators that represent risk categories such as capital adequacy(C), asset quality(A), earnings(E), and liquidity(L) by using the NBER statistical methodology. For the validation of Risk Index, expected default frequency has been used, and the result has been proved to be positive. According to the compiled Risk Index, the level of risks of Korean securities industry has been decreasing from the second quarter of 2003 to the first quarter of 2006 by 22 percent. But the risk has been increasing during the periods from the first quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2003 and from the first quarter of 2006 to the last quarter of 2006.

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Development of Mid-range Forecast Models of Forest Fire Risk Using Machine Learning (기계학습 기반의 산불위험 중기예보 모델 개발)

  • Park, Sumin;Son, Bokyung;Im, Jungho;Kang, Yoojin;Kwon, Chungeun;Kim, Sungyong
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_2
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    • pp.781-791
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    • 2022
  • It is crucial to provide forest fire risk forecast information to minimize forest fire-related losses. In this research, forecast models of forest fire risk at a mid-range (with lead times up to 7 days) scale were developed considering past, present and future conditions (i.e., forest fire risk, drought, and weather) through random forest machine learning over South Korea. The models were developed using weather forecast data from the Global Data Assessment and Prediction System, historical and current Fire Risk Index (FRI) information, and environmental factors (i.e., elevation, forest fire hazard index, and drought index). Three schemes were examined: scheme 1 using historical values of FRI and drought index, scheme 2 using historical values of FRI only, and scheme 3 using the temporal patterns of FRI and drought index. The models showed high accuracy (Pearson correlation coefficient >0.8, relative root mean square error <10%), regardless of the lead times, resulting in a good agreement with actual forest fire events. The use of the historical FRI itself as an input variable rather than the trend of the historical FRI produced more accurate results, regardless of the drought index used.

Development of an Index for the Risk Assessment of Walking Trail (탐방로 재난 위험성 평가를 위한 위험지수 개발)

  • Kwak, Jae Hwan;Kim, Hong Gyun;Kim, Youl;Kim, Man-Il;Lee, Moon Se
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.379-395
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    • 2018
  • A walking trail environment can be divided into the upper part of the trail, the trail itself, and the lower part of the trail. In this study, based on field investigations, we developed a risk index for trails by considering human/societal factors that affect each of these three trail environments. A checklist was developed for field investigations, and checklist items were scored through relative importance analysis. The relative weights of items were analyzed using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) technique, revealing that the upper environment of a trail is twice as important as the rest of the environment. The importance and score of items belonging to each environment were determined. We define the risk index as the sum of the item scores. Weights were added using data from existing investigations including landslides risk rating and designated risk steep slopes. The risk index has a maximum value of 200, and the maximum and minimum calculated scores of 335 risk sections were 159 and 64.2, respectively. As a result of comparative analysis between field observations and risk index calculations, most sections at relatively low risk had risk values less than 100, and sections with high risks or that had been the site of accident yielded scores that exceeded 140.

Risk Assessment of Smoke Generated During Combustion for Some Wood (일부 목재의 연소 시 발생되는 연기의 위험성 평가)

  • Chung, Yeong-Jin;Jin, Eui
    • Applied Chemistry for Engineering
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.373-380
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    • 2022
  • In this study, Chung's equations 1, 2, and 3 were extended to standardize smoke safety rating evaluation in case of fire, and Chung's equations-V, smoke performance index-V, and smoke growth index-V were calculated. Five types of wood were selected and their smoke indices were measured using the cone calorimeter method according to ISO 5660-1. The smoke risk was graded by the smoke risk index-VI according to Chung's equation-VI. Smoke risk index-VI increased in the order of PMMA (1) ≈ maple (1.01) < ash (1.57) < needle fir (4.98) < paulownia (46.15) < western red cedar (106.26). It was predicted that maple and ash had the lowest smoke risk, and paulownia and western red cedar had the highest. The five samples' CO mean production rate (COPmean) was 0.0009~0.0024 g/s, indicating that these woods were incompletely burned than the polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) reference material. Regarding the smoke properties of the chosen woods, the smoke performance index-V (SPI-V) increased as the bulk density increased, and the smoke risk index-VI (SRI-VI) decreased.

Investigating the Incidence of Prostate Cancer in Iran 2005-2008 using Bayesian Spatial Ecological Regression Models

  • Haddad-Khoshkar, Ahmad;Koshki, TohidJafari;Mahaki, Behzad
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.14
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    • pp.5917-5921
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    • 2015
  • Background: Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed form of cancer and the sixth leading cause of cancer-related deaths among men in the entire world. Reported standardized incidence rates are 12.6, 61.7, 11.9 and 27.9 in Iran, developed countries, developing countries and the entire world, respectively. The present study investigated the relative risk of PC in Iran at the province level and also explored the impact of some factors by the use of Bayesian models. Materials and Methods: Our study population was all men with PC in Iran from 2005 to 2008. Considered risk factors were smoking, fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity, obesity and human development index. We used empirical and full Bayesian models to study the relative risk in Iran at province level to estimate the risk of PC more accurately. Results: In Iran from 2005 to 2008 the total number of known PC cases was 10,361 with most cases found in Fars and Tehran and the least in Ilam. In all models just human development index was found to be significantly related to PC risk Conclusions: In the unadjusted model, Fars, Semnam, Isfahan and Tehran provinces have the highest and Sistan-and-Baluchestan has the least risk of PC. In general, central provinces have high risk. After adjusting for covariates, Fars and Zanjan provinces have the highest relative risk and Kerman, Northern Khorasan, Kohgiluyeh Boyer Ahmad, Ghazvin and Kermanshah have the lowest relative risk. According to the results, the incidence of PC in provinces with higher human development index is higher.