• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.33-44
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• 1989

This paper presents stochastic-statistical dominance rules which eliminate dominated alternatives thereby reduce the number of satisficing alternatives to a manageable size so that the decision maker can choose the best alternative among them when neither the utility function nor the probability distribution of outcomes is exactly known. Specifically, it is assumed that only the characteristics of the utility function and the value function are known. Also, it is assumed that prior probabilities of the mutually exclusive states of nature are not known, but their relative bounds are known. First, the notion of relative risk aversion is used to describe the decision maker's attitude toward risk, which is defined with the acknowledgement that the utility function of the decision maker is a composite function of a cardinal value function and a utility function with-respect to the value function. Then, stochastic-statistical dominance rules are developed to screen out dominated alternatives according to the decision maker's attitude toward risk represented in the form of the measure of relative risk aversion.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.29 no.A
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• pp.101-110
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• 2009

Due to frequent occurrence of a localized torrential downpour caused by global warming and change of outflow tendency caused by rapid urbanization and industrialization, risk analysis must be carried out in levee design with uncertainty. In this study, reliability analysis was introduced to quantitatively evaluate the overtopping risk of levee by the uncertainty. First of all, breaking function was established as a function of flood stage and height of levee. All variables of breaking function were considered as random variables following any distribution functions, and the risk was defined as the possibility that the flood stage is formed higher than height of levee. The risk evaluation model was developed with AFDA (Approximate Full Distribution Approach). The flood stage computed by 2-D numerical model FESWMS-2DH was used as input data for the model of levee risk evaluation. Risk for levee submergence were quantitatively presented for levee of Wol-Song-Cheon.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• v.1
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• pp.83-88
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• 2006

Evaluation of collision risk plays a key role in developing the expert system of navigation and collision avoidance. This paper presents a new collision risk model formula that is one modification model on the basis of one approach to the evaluation of collision risk using sech function produced by Prof. Jeong in his relevant $articles^{[2][3][4][5]}$. And as a grope in collision risk evaluation field, this paper applied the new model in appraising the collision risk, suggested how to decide the safe range of own ship’'s action. Moreover this paper also analyzed theoretically how to determine the coefficients as describes in the new modification model formula, and suggested the appropriate values as applicable.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1017-1028
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• 2014

Well-known Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators have a disadvantage in respecting to overshink the parameter estimator error; therefore, a constrained Bayes estimator is suggested by matching the first two moments. Also traditional loss function such as mean square error loss function only considers the precision of estimation and to consider both precision and goodness of fit, balanced loss function is suggested. With these reasons, constrained Bayes estimators under balanced loss function is recommended for non-life insurance pricing.; however, most studies focus on the performance of estimation since Bayes risk of newly suggested estimators such as constrained Bayes and constrained empirical Bayes estimators under specific loss function is difficult to derive. This study compares the Bayes risk of several Bayes estimators under two different loss functions for estimating the risk in the auto insurance business and indicates the effectiveness of the newly suggested Bayes estimators with regards to Bayes risk perspective through auto insurance real data analysis.

• Physical Therapy Rehabilitation Science
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.139-145
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• 2018

Objective: Older persons with diabetes mellitus (DM) are particularly more likely to have fallen in the previous year than those without DM. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between the risk of falls and type 2 DM in older adults who are 65 years of age or above. Design: A systematic review. Methods: PubMed and other two databases were searched up to August 2, 2018. Observational and cohort studies evaluating fall risk in people who are 65 years of age or above with DM were included. This review extracted the following information from each study selected: first author's surname, year of publication, country, average follow-up period, sex, age at enrollment, study population, measurement variables, relative risk, 95% confidence intervals and controlled variables. Results: This review involved nine cohort studies with 3,765 older adults with DM and 12,989 older adults without DM. Six studies compared with or without DM and two studies compared fallers with non-fallers with DM. Risk factors for falls included impaired cognitive function, diabetes-related complications (peripheral nerve dysfunction, visual impairment), and physical function (balance, gait velocity, muscle strength, and severity of physical activities). Conclusions: People who are 65 years of age or above with DM have increased risk of falling caused by impaired cognitive function, peripheral nerve dysfunction, visual impairment, and physical function in community-dwellers. For adults who are 65 years of age or older with DM, research fields and clinical settings should consider therapeutic approaches to improve these risk factors for falls.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.433-444
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• 1996

In contrast to the multiplicative risk model, the additive risk model specifies that the hazard function with covariates is the sum of, rather than product of, the baseline hazard function and the regression function of covariates. We, in this paper, propose a method for checking the adequacy of the additive risk model based on partial-sum of matingale residuals. Under the assumed model, the asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistic and approximation method to find the critical values of the limiting distribution are studied. Several real examples are illustrated.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.121-126
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• 2007

Evaluation of collision risk plays a key role in developing the expert system of navigation and collision avoidance. This paper presents a new collision risk model formula that is one modification model on the basis of one approach to the evaluation of collision risk using sech function produced in earlier studies. And as a tool of the evaluation field of ship collision, this paper applied the new model in appraising the collision risk and represented how to decide the safe range of own ship's action. Moreover this paper also analyzed theoretically how to determine the coefficients as described in the new modification model, and suggested the appropriate values as applicable.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.619-624
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• 2003

Evaluating the risk of collision quantitatively plays a key role in developing the expert system of navigation and collision avoidance. This study analysed thoroughly how to determine the threshold function related to the avoidance time as described in the new evaluation of collision risk using sech function, and developed the appropriate equation as applicable.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.241-263
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• 2008

Within any income approach, a discount rate is used to convert some projected free cash flow to its presented value. In case of valuing companies, the most frequently used discount rate is the weighted average cost of capital(WACC) at the aggregate level. But technology valuation is different to discounting aggregate corporate cash flow since it is concerned about individual Intellectual property. Therefore, blindly applying standard discount rate such as WACC in technology valuation is unlikely to lead to the right result. The primary focus of this paper is to establish the structure of discount rate for technology valuation and to suggest the method of estimation. To determine an appropriate discount rate for technology valuation, the level of technology risk, market risk and competitive risk should be included in the structure of discount rate. This paper suggests the build-up model which consists of three components as a expansion of the CAPM. It includes (1) a risk-free rate of return, (2) general market risk premium and beta and (3) intellectual property risk premium related to technology risk and specific target market risk. However, there is no specific check list for examining the intellectual property risk until now and no specific method for quantifying its risk into risk premium. This paper developed the 10 element to determine the level of the intellectual property risk and applied estimation function such as linear function, natural log function and exponential function to transform the level of risk into risk premium. The limitation of this paper is that the range of intellectual property risk premium is inferred based on the information of foreign and domestic valuation agency. Finally, this paper explored the development of an intellectual property discount rate for technology valuation and presented the method in order to quantify the intellectual property risk premium.

• The Pure and Applied Mathematics
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.377-383
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• 2016

The set of priors in the representation of coherent risk measure is expressed in terms of quantile function and increasing concave function. We show that the set of prior, $\mathcal{Q}_c$ in (1.2) is equal to the set of $\mathcal{Q}_m$ in (1.6), as maximal representing set $\mathcal{Q}_{max}$ defined in (1.7).