• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk frequency

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A Risk Assessment Method using Disaster Influence Factors on Construction Project (건설 프로젝트의 재해영향요인 기반 위험성 평가방법)

  • Yu, Yong-Sin;Choi, Jae-Wook;Kim, Tae-Wan;Lee, Chansik
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.3-12
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    • 2019
  • Current risk assessment methods typically determine accident risks embedded in construction projects by combining severity and frequency; however, they do not reflect the characteristics of construction projects. To solve the problem, this study aims to develop a novel risk assessment method that combines severity, frequency, and disaster influence factors (i.e., weather conditions and worker's characteristics) for assessing risks of activities occurring on a construction site actually. In this study, a severity was estimated by death against victims, and a frequency was estimated by the victim rate. The frequency was then converted to probability taking disaster influence factors into account. Thus, instead of considering severity and frequency for assessing the original risks (RO), the proposed method uses severity and probability to yield adjusted risks (RA) for each activity. A case study was conducted to determine if the proposed method works as intended in a real setting. The results show that RA is more sensitive to disaster influence factors than RO and, therefore, is able to assess the actual risks reflecting the working environment and conditions of a construction site. This study contributes to risk management of construction projects by offering a risk assessment method that measures a possibility of potential disasters from the probabilistic perspective. This method would help project managers assess accident risks in a more systematic and quantitative manner.

Effects of Numerical Formats and Frequency ranges on Judgment of Risk and Inference in the Bayesian InferenceTask (숫자양식과 빈도범위가 베이스 추론 과제에서 위험판단과 추론에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Hyun-Ju;Lee, Young-Ai
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.335-355
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    • 2009
  • We examined risk judgment and the accuracy of inference based on two kinds of probabilities in a Bayesian inference task: the death probability from a disease (base rates) and the probability of having a disease with positive results in the screening test (posterior probabilities). Risk information were presented in either a probability or a frequency format. In Study 1, we found a numerical format effect for both base rate and posterior probability. Participants rated information as riskier and inferred more accurately in the frequency condition than in the probability condition for both base rate and posterior probability. However, there was no frequency range effect, which suggested that the ranges of frequency format did not influence risk ratings. In order to find out how the analytic thought system influences risk ratings, we compared the ratings of a computation condition and those of a no-computation condition and still found the numerical format effect in computation condition. In Study 2, we examined the numerical format effect and frequency range effect in a high and a low probability condition and found the numerical format effect at each probability level. This result suggests that people feel riskier in the frequency format than in the probability format regardless of the base rates and the posterior probability. We also found a frequency range effect only for the low base rate condition. Our results were discussed in terms of the dual process theories.

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Risk Assessment of Semiconductor PR Process based on Frequency Analysis of Flammable Material Leakage (반도체 PR 공정의 인화성 물질 누출 빈도분석을 통한 위험성 평가)

  • Park, Myeongnam;Chun, Kwang-Su;Yi, Jinseok;Shin, Dongil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2021
  • Semiconductor Photo Resist (PR) automation equipment uses a mixture of several flammable substances, and when it leaks during the process, it can lead to various accidents, therefore, risk assessment is necessary. This study analyzed the frequency of leakage of Acetone and PGMEA used in PR automation equipment and the frequency at which such leakage could lead to a fire accident through the frequency analysis method, and evaluated the need for additional risk reduction measures in the current facility. Based on the process leak data and ignition probability data of IOGP, leak frequency analysis and ignition probability were derived, and the frequency of actual fire accidents was analyzed by combining them. The frequency of material leakage in semiconductor PR process is 7.30E-03/year, and fire accidents can occur by acetone that exists above the flash point when the material is leaked, the frequency was calculated at the level of 1.24E-05/year. According to the UK HSE, for a major accident occurring with a frequency of 1.24E-05/year, it is defined as "Broadly Acceptable", a level that does not require additional measures for risk reduction when it causes 7 or less deaths, and due to the process operated by two people, no additional risk reduction are required.

Analysis of Safety of the Chemical Facilities by Korea Risk Based-Inspection in the Petrochemical Plant (석유화학공장에서의 한국형 위험기반검사에 의한 화학설비의 안정성 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Ok;Lee, Hern-Chang;Shin, Pyng-Sik;Choi, Byung-Nam;Jo, Ji-Hoon;Choi, Byung-Young;Park, Sung-Hoo;Kim, Hung-Kun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.35-40
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    • 2007
  • As a way of improving the safety of the chemical facilities, the risk based-inspection(RBI) was executed for the facilities of the applied petrochemical plant using KS-RBI Ver. 3.0 program developed based on the API-581 based resource document(BRD). From an evaluation result of KS-RBI program, we could find the evaluation of the process safety management(PSM) for the applied plant, risk of the applied process, risk of static facilities and pipes, and the demage mechanism of the facilities. Also, we could suggest a proper inspection plan(frequency and method of inspection) using the calculated risk and the status of the facilities. Therefore, the applied plant could be achieved a reduced inspection cost by an extension of inspection frequency, improved productivity, improved reliability of the facilities, and a computerized history management.

An Investigation on the Metabolic Syndromes and Health-Related Risk Factors among Male Workers (근로자들의 대사증후군과 건강위험 요인과의 관련성 연구)

  • Choi, Sun-Young;Kang, Na-Eun;Kim, Sung-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.975-984
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    • 2013
  • This study is performed to estimate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome among male workers and to identify the relationships with many related factors including anthropometry, hematological index, serum lipid level, dietary-related behaviors and health-related behaviors. According to the age groups, the 20s are significantly higher in normal and risk groups than in the metabolic syndrome (MS) group, the 30s are significantly higher in MS group than the other groups. The levels of AST and ${\gamma}$-GTP both show significant differences in the order of MS group ($30.3{\pm}8.8U/l$, $91.1{\pm}40.2U/l$) > risk group ($25.7{\pm}8.1U/l$, $41.8{\pm}20.2U/l$) > normal group ($22.8{\pm}6.0U/l$, $26.6{\pm}10.7U/l$). For the frequency of breakfast consumption, the response of 'Every day' is significantly higher in MS group than normal and risk groups, but the response of 'Not at all' is significantly higher in normal group than MS and risk groups. The drinking amount is positively correlated with ${\gamma}$-GTP in normal group, and it is negatively correlated with the hematocrit level, but it is positively correlated with the systolic blood pressure in MS group. AST is positively correlated with glucose concentrations of the MS group. The ALT is positively correlated with waist circumferences and systolic blood pressure in the risk group. The results of this study show that breakfast frequency, education level, drinking amount, drinking frequency, exercise frequency, AST, ALT and ${\gamma}$-GTP levels are all important risk factors of MS. Therefore, it is very important to maintain a healthy life style for the prevention of MS incidence.

An Approach to Risk Assessment of City Gas Pipeline (도시가스 배관의 위험평가 방법론 제시)

  • Park Kyo-Shik;Lee Jin-Han;Jo Young-Do;Park Jin-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.7 no.1 s.18
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2003
  • In this work, a novel approach was introduced to assess cost of loss resulting from risk as well as to help deciding inspection period through quantifying risk. In order to quantifying risk of city gas pipeline, frequency and consequence analysis were required. The main causes of city gas accident were analyzed to be digging, external corrosion, ground movement, and equipment failure. Tools to evaluate frequency of each cause was also suggested. Among city gas accidents, fire damage is the dominant one and mainly discussed; fatality, burning injury, and damage to building were estimated using the consequence model suggested. By combining frequency and consequence analysis, evaluating cost of risk management together with calculating example. This work could be applicable for city gas companies to plan how to manage risk most effectively.

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Integrated Level 1-Level 2 decommissioning probabilistic risk assessment for boiling water reactors

  • Mercurio, Davide;Andersen, Vincent M.;Wagner, Kenneth C.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.627-638
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    • 2018
  • This article describes an integrated Level 1-Level 2 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology to evaluate the radiological risk during postulated accident scenarios initiated during the decommissioning phase of a typical Mark I containment boiling water reactor. The fuel damage scenarios include those initiated while the reactor is permanently shut down, defueled, and the spent fuel is located into the spent fuel storage pool. This article focuses on the integrated Level 1-Level 2 PRA aspects of the analysis, from the beginning of the accident to the radiological release into the environment. The integrated Level 1-Level 2 decommissioning PRA uses event trees and fault trees that assess the accident progression until and after fuel damage. Detailed deterministic severe accident analyses are performed to support the fault tree/event tree development and to provide source term information for the various pieces of the Level 1-Level 2 model. Source terms information is collected from accidents occurring in both the reactor pressure vessel and the spent fuel pool, including simultaneous accidents. The Level 1-Level 2 PRA model evaluates the temporal and physical changes in plant conditions including consideration of major uncertainties. The goal of this article is to provide a methodology framework to perform a decommissioning Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), and an application to a real case study is provided to show the use of the methodology. Results will be derived from the integrated Level 1-Level 2 decommissioning PSA event tree in terms of fuel damage frequency, large release frequency, and large early release frequency, including uncertainties.

Effects of Abdominal Obesity and Risk Drinking on the Hypertension Risk in Korean Adults (복부비만과 위험음주가 성인의 고혈압에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Eun Sook
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.349-358
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to investigate the combined effects of abdominal obesity and alcohol drinking on the risk of hypertension in Korean adults (aged ${\geq}30yrs$). Methods: Data of 13,885 subjects from the sixth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were analyzed. The multiple logistic regression tests were used for the analysis, including potential covariates of the model. Results: Frequency of drinking, typical drinking quantity, and frequency of binge drinking had a positive relation to hypertension. The odds ratio of hypertension for risk drinkers with abdominal obesity was 4.81 compared to non-risk drinkers with normal waist circumstance, whereas the odds ratios of hypertension for risk drinkers with normal waist circumstance and non-risk drinkers with abdominal obesity were 1.58 and 2.37 respectively. Conclusion: Both abdominal obesity and alcohol drinking patterns were strong risk factors of hypertension in the Korean adults. Risk drinkers with abdominal obesity showed a marked high risk in hypertension compared to those with a single condition alone.

Integrated risk assessment method for spent fuel road transportation accident under complex environment

  • Tao, Longlong;Chen, Liwei;Long, Pengcheng;Chen, Chunhua;Wang, Jin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.393-398
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    • 2021
  • Current risk assessment of Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) transportation has the problem of the incomplete risk factors consideration and the general particle diffusion model utilization. In this paper, the accident frequency calculation and the detailed simulation of the accident consequences are coupled by the integrated risk assessment method. The "man-machine-environment" three-dimensional comprehensive risk indicator system is established and quantified to characterize the frequency of the transportation accidents. Consideration of vegetation, building and turbulence effect, the standard k-ε model is updated to simulate radioactive consequence of leakage accidents under complex terrain. The developed method is applied to assess the risk of the leakage accident in the scene of the typical domestic SNF Road Transportation (SNFRT). The critical risk factors and their impacts on the dispersion of the radionuclide are obtained.

A STUDY ON METHODOLOGY FOR IDENTIFYING CORRELATIONS BETWEEN LERF AND EARLY FATALITY

  • Kang, Kyungmin;Jae, Moosung;Ahn, Kwang-Il
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.44 no.7
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    • pp.745-754
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    • 2012
  • The correlations between Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) and Early Fatality need to be investigated for risk-informed application and regulation. In Regulatory Guide (RG) -1.174, while there are decision-making criteria using the measures of Core Damage Frequency (CDF) and LERF, there are no specific criteria on LERF. Since there are both huge uncertainties and large costs needed in off-site consequence calculation, a LERF assessment methodology needs to be developed, and its correlation factor needs to be identified, for risk-informed decision-making. A new method for estimating off-site consequence has been presented and performed for assessing health effects caused by radioisotopes released from severe accidents of nuclear power plants in this study. The MACCS2 code is used for validating the source term quantitatively regarding health effects, depending on the release characteristics of radioisotopes during severe accidents. This study developed a method for identifying correlations between LERF and Early Fatality and validates the results of the model using the MACCS2 code. The results of this study may contribute to defining LERF and finding a measure for risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making.