• 한국식품위생안전성학회지
• /
• 제24권3호
• /
• pp.226-231
• /
• 2009

본 연구는 위해 미생물에 대한 빙과류의 오염수준 모니터링 결과를 바탕으로 미생물 위해평가(Microbial risk assessment : MRA)를 적용하여 노출정도를 평가하였다. 그 결과 원재료에서 S. aureus 균의 오염수준이 높았으며 살균 전 혼합액에서는 오염수준이 더욱 증가한 것으로 나타났으나 살균 후 혼합액에서는 오염 수준이 현저하게 감소하는 것으로 나타났다 한편 최종 냉동 저장된 빙과류에서의 오염수준은 초기의 원재료 오염수준보다 약간 더 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 최종적으로 빙과류의 위해성 평가 결과, 빙과류를 1일 동안 1인이 섭취하였을 때 평균적으로 식중독에 걸릴 가능성은 최소 $5.89{\times}10^{-7}$, 최대 $5.01{\times}10^{-5}$의 발생가능성을 제시할 수 있다. 하지만 좀 더 현실적인 위해 수준을 추정하기 위해서는 빙과류의 섭취량, dose-response model(양-반응 모델) 등에 연구가 이루어져야 할 것이다.

• 한국환경보건학회지
• /
• 제43권3호
• /
• pp.223-232
• /
• 2017

Objectives: In response to increased interest in the safety of children's products, a risk management system is being prepared through exposure assessment of hazardous chemicals. To estimate exposure levels, risk assessors are using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to statistical methodology and a commercialized Monte Carlo simulation based on tools (MCTool) to efficiently support calculation of the probability density functions. This study was conducted to analyze and discuss the usage patterns and problems associated with the results of these two approaches and MCTools used in the case of probabilistic approaches by reviewing research reports related to exposure assessment for children's products. Methods: We collected six research reports on exposure and risk assessment of children's products and summarized the deterministic results and corresponding underlying distributions for exposure dose and concentration results estimated through deterministic and probabilistic approaches. We focused on mechanisms and differences in the MCTools used for decision making with probabilistic distributions to validate the simulation adequacy in detail. Results: The estimation results of exposure dose and concentration from the deterministic approaches were 0.19-3.98 times higher than the results from the probabilistic approach. For the probabilistic approach, the use of lognormal, Student's T, and Weibull distributions had the highest frequency as underlying distributions of the input parameters. However, we could not examine the reasons for the selection of each distribution because of the absence of test-statistics. In addition, there were some cases estimating the discrete probability distribution model as the underlying distribution for continuous variables, such as weight. To find the cause of abnormal simulations, we applied two MCTools used for all reports and described the improper usage routes of MCTools. Conclusions: For transparent and realistic exposure assessment, it is necessary to 1) establish standardized guidelines for the proper use of the two statistical approaches, including notes by MCTool and 2) consider the development of a new software tool with proper configurations and features specialized for risk assessment. Such guidelines and software will make exposure assessment more user-friendly, consistent, and rapid in the future.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• 제12권5호
• /
• pp.489-499
• /
• 2017

The effects of past earthquakes have demonstrated the seismic vulnerability of confined masonry structures (CMSs) to earthquakes. The results of experimental analysis indicate that damage to these structures depends on lateral displacement applied to the walls. Seismic evaluation lacks an analytical approach because of the complexity of the behavior of this type of structure; an empirical approach is often used for this purpose. Seismic assessment and risk analysis of CMSs, especially in area have a large number of such buildings is difficult and could be riddled with error. The present study used analytical and numerical models to develop a simplified nonlinear displacement-based approach for seismic assessment of a CMS. The methodology is based on the concept of ESDOF and displacement demand and is compared with displacement capacity at the characteristic period of vibration according to performance level. Displacement demand was identified using the nonlinear displacement spectrum for a specified limit state. This approach is based on a macro model and nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis of a 3D prototype structure taking into account uncertainty of the mechanical properties and results in a simple, precise method for seismic assessment of a CMS. To validate the approach, a case study was considered in the form of an analytical fragility curve which was then compared with the precise method.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• 제14권3호
• /
• pp.249-259
• /
• 2018

This paper aims to assess the seismic risk of a plane moment-resisting frames (MRFs) consisting of concrete-filled double skin steel tube (CFDST) columns and I-section steel beams. Firstly, three typical limit performance levels of CFDST structures are determined in accordance with the cyclic tests of seven CFDST joint specimens with 1/2-scaled and the limits stipulated in FEMA 356. Then, finite element (FE) models of the test specimens are built by considering with material degradation, nonlinear behavior of beam-column connections and panel zones. The mechanical behavior of the concrete material are modeled in compression stressed condition in trip-direction based on unified strength theory, and such numerical model were verified by tests. Besides, numerical models on 3, 6 and 9-story CFDST frames are established. Furthermore, the seismic responses of these models to earthquake excitations are investigated using nonlinear time-history analyses (NTHA), and the limits capacities are determined from incremental dynamic analyses (IDA). In addition, fragility curves are developed for these models associated with 10%/50yr and 2%/50yr events as defined in SAC project for the region on Los Angeles in the Unite State. Lastly, the annual probabilities of each limits and the collapse probabilities in 50 years for these models are calculated and compared. Such results provide risk information for the CFDST-MRFs based on the probabilistic risk assessment method.

• Safety and Health at Work
• /
• 제9권1호
• /
• pp.84-94
• /
• 2018

Background: This paper describes a simple-to-use and reliable screening tool called Critical Task Exposure Screening (CTES), developed by a chemical company. The tool assesses if the exposure to a chemical for a task is likely to be within acceptable levels. Methods: CTES is a Microsoft Excel tool, where the inhalation risk score is calculated by relating the exposure estimate to the corresponding occupational exposure limit (OEL) or occupational exposure band (OEB). The inhalation exposure is estimated for tasks by preassigned ART1.5 activity classes and modifying factors. Results: CTES requires few inputs. The toxicological data, including OELs, OEBs, and vapor pressure are read from a database. Once the substance is selected, the user specifies its concentration and then chooses the task description and its duration. CTES has three outputs that may trigger follow-up: (1) inhalation risk score; (2) identification of the skin hazard with the skin warnings for local and systemic adverse effects; and (3) status for carcinogenic, mutagenic, or reprotoxic effects. Conclusion: The tool provides an effective way to rapidly screen low-concern tasks, and quickly identifies certain tasks involving substances that will need further review with, nevertheless, the appropriate conservatism. This tool shows that the higher-tier ART1.5 inhalation exposure assessment model can be included effectively in a screening tool. After 2 years of worldwide extensive use within the company, CTES is well perceived by the users, including the shop floor management, and it fulfills its target of screening tool.

• 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
• /
• 제31권6호
• /
• pp.605-613
• /
• 2020

In July and October of this year, the government announced the 'Green new deal plan within the Korean new deal policy' and 'Strategies for proliferation of future vehicles and market preoccupation'. And, in response to changes in the global climate agreement, it has decided to expand green mobility such as electric vehicles and hydrogen electric vehicles with the aim of a "net-zero" society. Accordingly, the goal is to build 310 hydrogen refueling stations along with the supply of 60,000 hydrogen vehicles in 2022, and the hydrogen infrastructure is being expanded. however, it is difficult to secure hydrogen infrastructure due to expensive construction costs and difficulty the selection of a site. In Korea, it is possible to build a mobile hydrogen station according to the safety standards covering special case of the Ministry of Industry. Since the mobile hydrogen station can be charged while moving between authorized place, it has the advantage of being able to meet a large number of demands with only one hydrogen refueling station, so it is proposed as a model suitable for the early market of hydrogen infrastructure. This study demonstrates the establishment of a hydrogen refueling station by deriving a virtual accident scenario for leakage and catastrupture for each facility for the risk factors in a mobile hydrogen station, and performing a quantitative risk assessment through the derived scenario. Through the virtual accident scenario, direction of demonstration and implications for the construction of a mobile hydrogen refueling station were derived.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
• /
• 제65권5호
• /
• pp.1024-1039
• /
• 2023

In this study, we performed a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of Salmonella through intake of egg consumption after cooking (dry-heat, moist-heat, and raw consumption). Egg samples (n = 201) from retail markets were analyzed for the presence of Salmonella. In addition, temperature and time were investigated during egg transit, storage, and display. A predictive model was developed to characterize the kinetic behavior of Salmonella in eggs, and data on egg consumption and frequency were collected. Eventually, the data was simulated to estimate egg-related foodborne illnesses. Salmonella was not found in any of the 201 egg samples. Thus, the estimated initial contamination level was -4.0 Log CFU/g. With R² values of 0.898 and 0.922, the constructed predictive models were adequate for describing the fate of Salmonella in eggs throughout distribution and storage. Eggs were consumed raw (1.5%, 39.2 g), dry-heated (57.5%, 43.0 g), and moist-heated (41%, 36.1 g). The probability of foodborne Salmonella illness from the consumption of cooked eggs was evaluated to be 6.8×10^-10. Additionally, the probability of foodborne illness not applied cooking methods was 1.9×10^-7, indicating that Salmonella can be reduced by cooking. Therefore, the risk of Salmonella infection through consumption of eggs after cooking might be low in S. Korea.

• Spatial Information Research
• /
• 제23권2호
• /
• pp.39-48
• /
• 2015

본 연구에서는 2차원 범람해석을 통해 도출된 침수해석정보에 현실적인 위험도를 고려한 산정식을 적용하여 홍수위험도를 평가하였고, 이를 표준화된 정보체계로 제공하는 방안을 제시하였다. 일반적으로 침수심과 침수구역을 기반으로 하는 현재의 홍수위험도 평가방법은 홍수발생시 사람에게 미치는 실질적인 위험도를 충분히 반영하지 못 할 것으로 판단되어 침수심, 유속, Debris Factor와 Flood Hazard Rating 관계식을 이용하여 외수범람이 사람에게 미치는 홍수위험도를 평가하고 4개로 등급화하였다. 이를 위해 2차원 외수범람해석 모형인 Flumen을 이용하여 대구의 금호강유역 대하여 500년 빈도 홍수로 인한 월류와 200년 빈도 홍수로 인한 파제 시나리오에 따라 외수범람을 모의하였다. 이러한 연구결과를 통해 외수범람시 침수가 예상되는 지역에 위치한 사람들에게 더 현실적인 위험도정보를 제공하고, 표준화된 정보체계 기반에서 위험도정보 제공이 가능해짐으로써 재해관련분야의 정보분석, 평가, 계획수립 등 다양한 분야에서 활용성을 증대시킬 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
• /
• 제52권6호
• /
• pp.755-767
• /
• 2014

염소(Chlorine)는 지구상에서 가장 많이 생산되고 사용되는 화학물질 중 하나로, 비가연성 물질이지만 독성, 오존층 파괴 및 활발한 반응성을 지닌 물질이며, 현대사회는 염소와 그 유도체의 사용 없이 윤택한 삶을 유지하는 것이 거의 불가능할 정도로 의약품과 세정제, 방취제, 살균제, 제초제, 살충제 및 플라스틱을 비롯하여 공산품의 40% 이상에 사용되고 있는 지구상의 대표적인 화학물질이다. 국내의 경우, 염소는 전국의 다양한 사업장(중소기업, 정수장, 운송회사 등)에서 취급 및 유통되고 있지만 관련 운송위험과 유해성 평가 연구가 부족하여, 국내외 염소누출 관련 사고에 대해 분석 및 염소 취급 및 유통에 대한 유해성 평가를 시도하였다. 특히 화학물질 운송위험지수를 국내 실정에 맞도록 모델화하였고, 액화 염소를 포함한 13종 화학물질의 운송위험성 모사를 통해 유해성 평가를 실시하였다. 이는 염소를 비롯한 다양한 화학물질에 대한 화학물질 운송위험지수 모델을 적용하여 정형화된 유통 유해성평가를 할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제49권2호
• /
• pp.411-425
• /
• 2017

Using a probabilistic safety assessment, a risk evaluation framework for an aircraft crash into an interim spent fuel storage facility is presented. Damage evaluation of a detailed generic cask model in a simplified building structure under an aircraft impact is discussed through a numerical structural analysis and an analytical fragility assessment. Sequences of the impact scenario are shown in a developed event tree, with uncertainties considered in the impact analysis and failure probabilities calculated. To evaluate the influence of parameters relevant to design safety, risks are estimated for three specification levels of cask and storage facility structures. The proposed assessment procedure includes the determination of the loading parameters, reference impact scenario, structural response analyses of facility walls, cask containment, and fuel assemblies, and a radiological consequence analysis with dose-risk estimation. The risk results for the proposed scenario in this study are expected to be small relative to those of design basis accidents for best-estimated conservative values. The importance of this framework is seen in its flexibility to evaluate the capability of the facility to withstand an aircraft impact and in its ability to anticipate potential realistic risks; the framework also provides insight into epistemic uncertainty in the available data and into the sensitivity of the design parameters for future research.