• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.873-882
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• 2022

연구목적:본 논문은 컨테이너 터미널에서 발생하는 사고 및 잠재적 위험에 대한 분석과 컨테이너 터미널 맞춤형 안전관리계획에 대한 연구를 수행하는데 목적이 있다. 연구방법:컨테이너 터미널 위험성 평가 사례연구 및 문헌분석을 통하여 안전관리 모델을 제시한다. 연구결과: '항만하역산업 사고 재해 통계'에 따르면 2011년부터 2021년까지 10년 동안 항만 작업 중 숨지거나 다친 사람이 무려 2,800명에 달했다. 이는 1.5일에 한 명꼴로 산업재해가 발생한 수치이다. 이러한 사고 재해의 개선 방법으로, 항만안전특별법에 따라 사고 재발 방지를 위하여 실효성이 높은 안전관리계획을 수립하여야 한다. 컨테이너 터미널의 위험성평가, 안전조직, 안전예산, 안전수칙, 안전교육 등을 반영한 안전관리계획을 수립할 것을 제시하였다.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.65-77
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• 2006

This study proposes a Bayesian dynamic model in a hierarchical way to assess the time-varying effect of risk factors on the likelihood of corporate bankruptcy. For the longitudinal data, we aim to describe dynamically evolving effects of covariates more articulately compared to the Generalized Estimating Equation approach. In the analysis, it is shown that the proposed model outperforms in terms of sensitivity and specificity. Besides, the usefulness of this study can be found from the flexibility in describing the dependence structure among time specific parameters and suitability for assessing the time effect of risk factors.

• 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농공학회 2005년도 학술발표논문집
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• pp.502-508
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• 2005

In order to assess the environmental risk of pesticides, information is usually required on the likelihood of exposure of organisms to the constituents of pesticides, expressed as a predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) and the likely effects of the constituents of pesticides on aquatic and terrestrial organisms, expressed as a predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs). In this paper, the pesticide fate model, RICEWQ alone and coupled with the pesticide movement model, RIVWQ was used to simulate the potential for predicting the environmental concentrations of pesticides in paddy fields and adjacent surface water systems. The RICEWQ model was successfully calibrated against field data in poinding depth for paddy field. For the assessment of importance for water and pesticide management conditions and field scales, the integrated RICEWQ-RIVWQ model was simulated by the scenario analysis. The results of this study can be used as a basic information for assessing the environmental risk of pesticides.

• 한국토양비료학회지
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• 제46권6호
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• pp.434-444
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• 2013

In order to evaluate drought risk at upland according to climate change scenario (RCP8.5), we have carried out the simulation using agricultural water balance estimation model, called AFKAE0.5, at 66 weather station sites in 2020, 2046, 2050, 2084, and 2090. Total Drought Risk Index between the first month (f) and last month (l) (TDRI(f/l)) and maximum continuous drought risk index (MCDRI(f/l)) were defined as the index for analyzing pattern and strength of drought simulated by the model. Based on distribution maps of MCDRI (1/12), drought strength was predicted to be most severe in 2084 for all regions. Some regions showed severe risk of drought meaning over 20 days of MCDRI (1/12) in the other years, while MCDRI (1/12) in other regions did not reach 5 days. Even though maximum value of TDRI (1/12) in 2090 was greater than in 2050, more severe drought risk in 2050 than in 2090 was predicted based on MCDRI (4/6). It implies that drought risk should be assessed for each crop with its own growing season.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.108-119
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• 2024

Objectives: Abrupt changes in air pollution levels associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak present a unique opportunity to evaluate the effects of air pollution on influenza risk, at a time when emission sources were less active and personal hygiene practices were more rigorous. Methods: This time-series study examined the relationship between influenza cases (n=22 874) and air pollutant concentrations from 2018 to 2021, comparing the timeframes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in and around Thailand's Khon Kaen province. Poisson generalized additive modeling was employed to estimate the relative risk of hospitalization for influenza associated with air pollutant levels. Results: Before the COVID-19 outbreak, both the average daily number of influenza hospitalizations and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 ㎛ or less (PM_2.5) concentration exceeded those later observed during the pandemic (p<0.001). In single-pollutant models, a 10 ㎍/m³ increase in PM_2.5 before COVID-19 was significantly associated with increased influenza risk upon exposure to cumulative-day lags, specifically lags 0-5 and 0-6 (p<0.01). After adjustment for co-pollutants, PM_2.5 demonstrated the strongest effects at lags 0 and 4, with elevated risk found across all cumulative-day lags (0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, and 0-6) and significantly greater risk in the winter and summer at lag 0-5 (p<0.01). However, the PM_2.5 level was not significantly associated with influenza risk during the COVID-19 outbreak. Conclusions: Lockdown measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic could mitigate the risk of PM_2.5-induced influenza. Effective regulatory actions in the context of COVID-19 may decrease PM_2.5 emissions and improve hygiene practices, thereby reducing influenza hospitalizations.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.398-403
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• 2006

Indoor air quality can be affected by indoor sources, ventilation, decay and outdoor levels. Understanding the effectiveness of indoor air quality control depends on knowledge of the characteristics of air pollutants in indoor air, especially their quantities and persistence, and the relevance of indoor sources to these factors. Toluene within new and established houses has been determined and factors significant to its presence have been identified. A total of 30 selected houses in Seoul, Asan and Daegu areas that were constructed within 4 years and over 4 years of construction were measured the concentration of toluene from July to September in 2004. Toluene emission decay of double-exponential model exhibited good fit of $Y=276.37e^{-1.21x}(R^{2}=0.34,\;P=0.06)$ for 2 years and then $Y=51.54e^{-0.11x}(R^{2}=0.40,\;P=0.0)$ from 23 years in new houses. In case of living in new houses, noncarcinogenic health effects of exposure to toluene was 1.38 of hazard quotient (HQ) comparing to toluene reference dose of 0.13 mg/kg-day.

• Proceedings of the National Institute of Ecology of the Republic of Korea
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.74-82
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• 2020

Predictions of suitable habitat areas can provide important information pertaining to the risk assessment and management of alien plants at early stage of their establishment. Here, we predict the invasion potential of Muhlenbergia capillaris (pink muhly) in South Korea using five bioclimatic variables. We adopt four models (generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest (RF), and artificial neural network) for projection based on 630 presence and 600 pseudo-absence data points. The RF model yielded the highest performance. The presence probability of M. capillaris was highest within an annual temperature range of 12 to 24℃ and with precipitation from 800 to 1,300 mm. The occurrence of M. capillaris was positively associated with the precipitation of the driest quarter. The projection map showed that suitable areas for M. capillaris are mainly concentrated in the southern coastal regions of South Korea, where temperatures and precipitation are higher than in other regions, especially in the winter season. We can conclude that M. capillaris is not considered to be invasive based on a habitat suitability map. However, there is a possibility that rising temperatures and increasing precipitation levels in winter can accelerate the expansion of this plant on the Korean Peninsula.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.96-103
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• 2024

The demand for mass calculation of offsite consequence analysis to conduct exhaustive single-unit or multi-unit Level 3 PSA is increasing. In order to perform efficient offsite consequence analyses, the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute is conducting model optimization studies to minimize the analysis time while maintaining the accuracy of the results. A previous study developed a model optimization method using efficient plume segmentation and verified its effectiveness. In this study, we investigated the possibility of optimizing the model through particle size distribution setting by checking the reduction in analysis time and deviation of the results. Our findings indicate that particle size distribution setting affects the results, but its effect on analysis time is insignificant. Therefore, it is advantageous to set the particle size distribution as fine as possible. Furthermore, we evaluated the effect of multithreading and confirmed its efficiency. Future optimization studies should be conducted on various input factors of offsite consequence analysis, such as spatial grid settings.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.87-96
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• 2007

본 연구는 경기도 소재 모 사격장의 주요 오염물질 여섯 가지에 대하여 홍수조절지가 건설된 이후 사격장 주변지역의 위해성을 예측하기 위하여 수행되었다. 해당 지역의 주요 오염물질 중 인체에 독성이 있는 화약물질 3종과 중금속 3종을 대상물질로 선정하였으며, 오염의 정도와 토지의 이용용도에 따라 네 지역으로 나누어 평가를 실시하였다. 위해성이 과대평가되는 것을 피하기 위하여 대상지역의 인문사회학적 특성 및 지반환경공학적 특성을 기반으로 노출경로모델(Conceptual Site Model)을 작성하였으며 각 노출경로에 따른 오염물질 이동모델 및 위해성 평가는 API's DSS(American Petroleum Institute's Decision Support System)를 이용하였다. 수용체나 지역의 특성을 하나의 값으로 대표할 수 없는 경우 위해성이 과소평가되는 것을 방지하기 위하여 가장 안전한 값을 사용하였다. 위해성 예측결과, 피탄지인 Ac 지역에서 TNT(Tri-Nitro-Toluene)와 카드뮴의 비발암위해도가 1을 조금 넘고, RDX(Royal Demolition Explosives)의 경우 50이 넘어, 대상지역 전체에 대한 총 비발암위해도는 62.828라는 매우 큰 값을 나타내었다. 한편, 발암위해도는 납이 약 $5\;{\times}\;10^{-4}$, 카드뮴이 약 $1\;{\times}\;10^{-3}$으로, 일반적으로 받아들여지는 발암위해도의 적정수준인 $10^{-4}{\sim}10^{-6}$에 비하여 $5{\sim}10$ 배 정도 크게 평가되었다. 이러한 위해성평가 결과를 통하여, 해당지역에 홍수조절지를 건설하기 전에 비발암물질과 발암물질 모두에 대한 즉각적인 복원사업이 진행되어야 하며, 홍수조절지 건설 후에도 사격장이 계속 운영될 경우 적절한 오염물질의 관리정책이 필요함을 알 수 있었다.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.45-52
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• 2009

In recent years, pharmaceuticals in the aquatic environment have become a matter of increasing public concern. Environmental risk assessment (ERA), including an exposure assessment, is considered the best scientifically based approach for evaluating the potential effects of pharmaceuticals on ecosystems. Computerized exposure models constitute an important tool in predicting environmental exposures of pharmaceuticals. This paper presents the applicability of an exposure model by comparing measured data of selected pharmaceuticals with predicted environmental concentrations from an exposure model. $PhATE^{TM}$ (Pharmaceutical Assessment and Transport Evaluation) model developed by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) was adapted to run simulations for the Keum River. A set of 7 pharmaceuticals of high production in Korea was modeled. The PECs generated by the $PhATE^{TM}$ model that were then compared to the measured concentrations. The $PhATE^{TM}$ model predicted concentrations for 7 pharmaceuticals including acetaminophen, acetylsalicylic acid, erythromycin, ibuprofen, lincomycin, mefenamic acid, and naproxen were in good agreement with actual measured concentrations, which demonstrated the utility of $PhATE^{TM}$ as a predictive tool. In conclusion, $PhATE^{TM}$, although it does not intend to accurately represent reality, could be utilized for rapid predictions of the environmental concentrations of pharmaceuticals.