• 제목/요약/키워드: risk assessment model

검색결과 1,066건 처리시간 0.027초

Clinical and pharmacological application of multiscale multiphysics heart simulator, UT-Heart

  • Okada, Jun-ichi;Washio, Takumi;Sugiura, Seiryo;Hisada, Toshiaki
    • The Korean Journal of Physiology and Pharmacology
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    • 제23권5호
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2019
  • A heart simulator, UT-Heart, is a finite element model of the human heart that can reproduce all the fundamental activities of the working heart, including propagation of excitation, contraction, and relaxation and generation of blood pressure and blood flow, based on the molecular aspects of the cardiac electrophysiology and excitation-contraction coupling. In this paper, we present a brief review of the practical use of UT-Heart. As an example, we focus on its application for predicting the effect of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) and evaluating the proarrhythmic risk of drugs. Patient-specific, multiscale heart simulation successfully predicted the response to CRT by reproducing the complex pathophysiology of the heart. A proarrhythmic risk assessment system combining in vitro channel assays and in silico simulation of cardiac electrophysiology using UT-Heart successfully predicted drug-induced arrhythmogenic risk. The assessment system was found to be reliable and efficient. We also developed a comprehensive hazard map on the various combinations of ion channel inhibitors. This in silico electrocardiogram database (now freely available at http://ut-heart.com/) can facilitate proarrhythmic risk assessment without the need to perform computationally expensive heart simulation. Based on these results, we conclude that the heart simulator, UT-Heart, could be a useful tool in clinical medicine and drug discovery.

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF DIGITAL SYSTEMS IN A PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

  • Authen, Stefan;Holmberg, Jan-Erik
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제44권5호
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    • pp.471-482
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    • 2012
  • To assess the risk of nuclear power plant operation and to determine the risk impact of digital systems, there is a need to quantitatively assess the reliability of the digital systems in a justifiable manner. The Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) is a tool which can reveal shortcomings of the NPP design in general and PRA analysts have not had sufficient guiding principles in modelling particular digital components malfunctions. Currently digital I&C systems are mostly analyzed simply and conventionally in PRA, based on failure mode and effects analysis and fault tree modelling. More dynamic approaches are still in the trial stage and can be difficult to apply in full scale PRA-models. As basic events CPU failures, application software failures and common cause failures (CCF) between identical components are modelled.The primary goal is to model dependencies. However, it is not clear which failure modes or system parts CCF:s should be postulated for. A clear distinction can be made between the treatment of protection and control systems. There is a general consensus that protection systems shall be included in PRA, while control systems can be treated in a limited manner. OECD/NEA CSNI Working Group on Risk Assessment (WGRisk) has set up a task group, called DIGREL, to develop taxonomy of failure modes of digital components for the purposes of PRA. The taxonomy is aimed to be the basis of future modelling and quantification efforts. It will also help to define a structure for data collection and to review PRA studies.

인적요인을 고려한 연안해역 위험도 평가모델 비교·분석 (Comparison and Analysis on Risk Assessment Models of Coastal Waters considering Human Factors)

  • 김인철;안광
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제40권1호
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2016
  • 국제기구에서 제시해 온 해양사고 예방대책은 주로 선박의 구조 및 복원성 강화, 선원의 교육 훈련, 해상교통환경 개선에 중점을 둔 것이었다. 해양사고통계를 분석한 결과, 사고는 주로 연안해역에서 인적요인에 의해 발생하였다. 이에 기존의 사고예방대책들이 통계분석 결과에 호응하는지 검토하기 위해 사고조사기법인 SHELL모델에 대입하였다. 결과적으로 연안해역에서 인간과실을 방지하기 위해서는 선박 운항자와 항행여건 사이의 상호작용에 대한 인간공학적 접근이 필요함이 도출되었다. 이를 위해 인간의 의사결정 메커니즘으로써 라스무센의 SRK 피라미드, 사고로 표현된 해상운송시스템의 붕괴에 관한 미국 연안경비대 등의 조사 지침서, 그리고 위험성평가모델인 IWRAP, PAWSA, ES모델, PARK모델과 NURI모델의 장단점을 검토하였다. 그 결과, 비록 기존의 위험성 평가모델은 항만이나 접근수로에서 유효성이 인정되었다고 하나 연안해역에서는 보완이 필요하며, 선박운항자가 직관적으로 해역의 상대적 위험도를 인식할 수 있도록 위험표시도를 발간할 필요가 있으며 이를 위해 선박운항자가 느끼는 정성적 위험도를 정량적으로 표시하기 위한 새로운 한국형 모델의 개발 필요성을 제안하였다.

터널굴착에 따른 인접건물 손상위험도 평가시스템 (Tunneling-induced Building Damage Risk Assessment System)

  • Park, Yong-Won;Yoon, Hyo-Seok
    • 한국지반공학회논문집
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    • 제18권3호
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2002
  • 이 논문에서는 터널막장 주변지반의 3차원적 지반거동을 고려한 인접건물의 손상위험도 평가시스템 개발에 관한 내용을 다루었다 이 시스템은 크게 건물 및 지반정보 모듈, 계측데이터 모듈, 침하평가모듈 및 건물 손상평가모듈로 구성되어 있다. 지반 침하평가 및 건물 손상평가 모듈은 이 시스템의 핵심 모듈로서 Attewell 등(1982)이 제안한 침하평가 모형을 토대로 터널시공으로 인한 침하량 및 범위를 정량적으로 평가한 후, 터널노선에 인접한 건물의 손상위험도를 Mair 등(1996)이 제시한 건물손상 평가방법을 근거로 평가한다. 터널굴착으로 인한 지반거동 평가에서 가장 큰 영향인자인 지반손실률($V_{s}$)또는 최대침하량($w_{max}$)및 변곡점(i)의 위치는 계측자료, 수치 해석 결과 그리고 각종 경험식을 사용하여 자동적으로 계산되도록 구축하였다. 한편, 건물 손상평가는 터널막장의 위치를 변화시키며 임의 구간의 인접건물에 대한 손상위험도 평가가 수행될 수 있는 기능을 부여하였다. 개발된 시스템 검증은 Boscardin과 Cording(1989)이 워싱턴 DC의 매트로 터널에 인접한 2층 조적식 건물의 계측사례를 적용하여 수행하였다.

원자력발전소에서 정성적 요인을 고려한 신뢰성 평가 (-Reliability Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants Considering the Qualitative Factors under Uncertainty-)

  • 강영식
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제23권54호
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    • pp.167-177
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    • 2000
  • The problem of system reliability is very important issue in the nuclear power plant, because the failure of its system brings about extravagant economic loss, environment destruction, and quality loss. This paper therefore proposes a normalized scoring model by the qualitative factors order to evaluate the robust reliability of nuclear power plants under uncertainty. Especially, the qualitative factors including risk, functional, human error, and quality function factors for the robust justification has been also introduced. Finally, the analytical reliability and safety assessment model developed in this paper can be used in the real nuclear power plant.

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다중 종속 고장상태를 갖는 공정시스템의 신뢰성 모델 (A Reliability Model of Process Systems with Multiple Dependent Failure States)

  • 최수형
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.37-41
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    • 2018
  • Process safety technology has developed from qualitative methods such as HAZOP (hazard and operability study) to semi-quantitative methods such as LOPA (layer of protection analysis), and quantitative methods are actively studied these days. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is often based on fault tree analysis (FTA). FTA is efficient, but difficult to apply when failure events are not independent of each other. This problem can be avoided using a Markov process (MP). MP requires definition of all possible states, and thus, generally, is more complicated than FTA. A method is proposed in this work that uses an MP model and a Weibull distribution model in order to construct a reliability model for multiple dependent failures. As a case study, a pressure safety valve (PSV) is considered, for which there are three kinds of failure, i.e. open failure, close failure, and gas tight failure. According to recently reported inspection results, open failure and close failure are dependent on each other. A reliability model for a PSV group is proposed in this work that is to reproduce these results. It is expected that the application of the proposed method can be expanded to QRA of various systems that have partially dependent multiple failure states.

PVC 바닥재 인체 노출에 따른 위해성 평가 연구 (Study on the methods of risk assessment of human exposure by using of PVC flooring)

  • 김우일;조윤아;김민선;이지영;강영렬;신선경;정성경;연진모
    • 분석과학
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.261-268
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    • 2014
  • 선진국에서 유해물질을 함유하는 소비자 제품의 위해성 관리를 위해 CONSEXPO등의 다양한 소비자 노출평가 모델을 개발하여 소비자 제품에 함유된 유해화학물질의 노출로 인한 위해도를 평가하고 이를 규제 기준의 설정근거로 활용하고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 다양한 시나리오에 적용할 수 있는 노출평가 모델을 검토하고 대상 제품을 선정하여 적정 모델을 적용하여 위해성 평가 단계에 따라 위해성 평가를 하여 제품 별 위해성 평가 기법을 마련하고자 하였다. 작성된 노출 시나리오를 바탕으로 노출 계수를 선정한 뒤 CONSEXPO 노출평가 모델을 기반으로 하여 알고리즘을 작성 한 결과 프탈레이트류의 경우 일부 장판에서 전이량이 검출되었으나 함량과 전이량의 상관관계를 살펴본 결과 r-square 0.0065으로 상관관계가 거의 없는 것으로 나타나, 이 결과를 기준으로 함량 기준값을 산출하는 것은 무리가 있다고 사료되며 현행제품기준을 유지하는 것이 무방할 것으로 판단된다. 휘발성유기화합물 또한 인체에 유해하지 않은 것으로 나타났으므로 현행 기준을 준수 할 경우 큰 무리가 없을 것으로 것을 판단, 새로운 기준을 제시 하지 않았다. 중금속의 경우 전이량이 검출되지 않았으므로 위해성 평가는 수행하지 않았다. 따라서 경피노출로 인한 인체의 유해가능성은 매우 적을 것으로 판단할 수 있다.

유류오염부지 시범적용을 통한 실외공기 오염물질흡입 노출경로에 대한 부지특이적 노출량 산정 방안에 대한 고찰 (Study on the Exposure Assessment Methodology for Outdoor Air Inhalation Pathways in Site-specific Risk Assessment and Its Application in a TPH-contaminated Site)

  • 김상현;정현용;정부윤;노회정;김현구;남경필
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2020
  • Exposure assessment methodology for outdoor air inhalation pathways (i.e., inhalation of volatile compounds and fugitive dust in outdoor air) was investigated. Default values of several parameters currently used in Korea (e.g., Q/C; inverse value of concentration per unit flux, and frs; soil fraction in PM10) may not be suitable and lack site-specificity, as they have been adopted from the risk assessment guidance of the United States or the Netherlands. Such limitation can be addressed to a certain degree by incorporating the volatilization factor (VF) and the particulate emission factor (PEF) with Box model. This approach was applied to an exposure assessment of a site contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons in Korea. The result indicated that the suggested methodology led to more accurate site-specific exposure assessment for outdoor inhalation pathways. Further work to establish methodology to determine site-specific Q/C values in Korea needs to be done to secure the reliability of the exposure assessment for outdoor air inhalation pathways.

부산시내 석면슬레이트지붕 건축물로부터의 석면 노출 및 건강위해성 평가 (Health Risk Assessment and Evaluation of Asbestos Release from Asbestos-cement Slate Roofing Buildings in Busan)

  • 정재원;조순자;박근태;이상준
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제22권12호
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    • pp.1579-1587
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    • 2013
  • This study was performed to evaluate the asbestos exposure levels and to calculate excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) for the risk assessment of the asbestos fibers released from asbestos-cement slate roofing (ASR) building. Total number of ASR buildings was into 21,267 in Busan, and 82.03 percent of the buildings was residential houses, and 43.61 percent of the buildings was constructed in 1970s. For this study, ten buildings were selected randomly among the ASR buildings. The range of airborne asbestos concentration in the selected ten ASR buildings was from 0.0016 to 0.0067 f/mL, and the concentration around no-admitted ASR buildings was higher than that around admitted buildings. The ELCR based on US EPA IRIS (integrated risk information system) model is within 3.5E-05 ~ 1.5E-04 levels, and the ELCR of no-admitted ASR buildings was higher than 1.0E-04 (one person per million) level that is considered a more aggressive approach to mitigate risk. These results indicate that the cancer risk from ASR buildings is higher than other buildings, and systematic public management is required for control of no-admitted ASR buildings within near future.

순간전압강하 저감을 위한 방사상 배전계통에서의 부하 절환 스위칭 (Load Transfer Switching for Reducing the Voltage Sag's Effect in Radial Power Distribution System)

  • 윤상윤;김재철
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2000년도 추계학술대회 논문집 학회본부 A
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    • pp.208-210
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we present a method for mitigating the effect of voltage sag in radial power distribution systems using load transfer switching (LTS). The term of LTS is defined that the weakness load points for voltage sag transfer to the alternative source during the fault clearing practices. The sequences of proposed LTS method is divided into the search of weakness points for voltage sag using the risk assessment model and transfer behavior of weakness points. Through the case studies, we verify the effectiveness of proposed LTS method and present the searching method of effective application points of LTS method using the risk assessment model.

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