• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
• /
• v.29 no.8
• /
• pp.1188-1196
• /
• 2016

This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model ($r=1.82{\times}10^{-11}$) was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were $12.40{\pm}19.43g$ and $19.46{\pm}14.39g$, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g) and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g) were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (${\alpha}1=1$, ${\alpha}2=91$; ${\alpha}1=1$, ${\alpha}2=309$)${\times}$uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8) to be -2.35 and -2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were $9.57{\times}10^{-14}$ and $3.58{\times}10^{-14}$, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by consumption cheese is low, and it can be used to establish microbial criteria for C. perfringens on natural and processed cheeses.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
• /
• v.12 no.4
• /
• pp.307-319
• /
• 2010

As we learned in Daegu subway fire accident, fire in the railway tunnel is prone to develop to large disaster due to the limitation of smoke control and smoke exhaust. In railway tunnel, in order to ensure fire safety, fire prevention and fighting systems are installed by quantitative risk assessment results. Therefore, in this research, developed the program to establish quantitative risk assessment and suggested quantitative safety assessment method including fire scenarios in railway tunnel, fire and evacuation analysis model, fatality estimate model and societal risk criteria. Moreover, this method applys to plan preventing disaster for Honam high speed railway tunnel. As results, we presented the proper distance of escape route and societal risk criteria.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
• /
• v.43 no.5
• /
• pp.13-27
• /
• 2015

This study examined disaster risk from climate change in urban open spaces. This study conducted an assessment depending on type of damage and type of open space, subcategorizing it into flood damage and wind damage, flat park and mountainous park, and classified the assessment items by type into natural factor, artificial factor, and social factor for the purpose of analysis. Our major findings from this study are as follows: To look at the standardized score for the disaster risk from flood damages in the case of a flat park, Asian Park was higher at 55.800 point than Seoul Forest at 51.775 point, and in the case of mountainous parks, Dogok Park was at 58.428 point and Baebongsan Park was at 58.374 point. To look at the standardized score for disaster risk from wind damage, in the case of a flat park, Asian Park was higher at 64.763 point than Seoul Forest at 61.054 point, and in the case of mountainous parks, Baebongsan Park was higher at 58.533 point than Dogok Park at 55.459 point. This study raised a question about the necessity for and value of this disaster risk assessment in open space from damages caused by climate change, established an assessment model for disaster risk from damages in open spaces only to attempt risk assessment. Disaster risk of urban green space was enhanced.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
• /
• v.48 no.3
• /
• pp.159-166
• /
• 2022

Background: A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model was adopted in the Registration, Evaluation, Authorization, and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH, EU) regulations as well as the Act on Registration, Evaluation, etc. of Chemicals (AREC, Republic of Korea). It has been previously used in the registration of chemicals. Objectives: In this study, we investigated the correlation between the predicted data provided by three prediction programs using a QSAR model and actual experimental results (acute fish, daphnia magna toxicity). Through this approach, we aimed to effectively conjecture on the performance and determine the most applicable programs when designating toxic substances through the AREC. Methods: Chemicals that had been registered and evaluated in the Toxic Chemicals Control Act (TCCA, Republic of Korea) were selected for this study. Two prediction programs developed and operated by the U.S. EPA - the Ecological Structure-Activity Relationship (ECOSAR) and Toxicity Estimation Software Tool (T.E.S.T.) models - were utilized along with the TOPKAT (Toxicity Prediction by Komputer Assisted Technology) commercial program. The applicability of these three programs was evaluated according to three parameters: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results: The prediction analysis on fish and daphnia magna in the three programs showed that the TOPKAT program had better sensitivity than the others. Conclusions: Although the predictive performance of the TOPKAT program when using a single predictive program was found to perform well in toxic substance designation, using a single program involves many restrictions. It is necessary to validate the reliability of predictions by utilizing multiple methods when applying the prediction program to the regulation of chemicals.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.55 no.3
• /
• pp.41-49
• /
• 2013

Drought risk assessment is usually performed qualitatively and quantitatively depending on the definition a drought. The meteorological drought indices have a limit of not being able to consider the hydrological components such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff, because it does not consider the water demand in paddies and water supply in reservoirs. Agricultural drought was defined as the reservoir storage shortage state that cannot satisfy water requirement from the paddy fields. The objectives of this study were to suggest improved agricultural drought risk assessment in order to evaluate of regional drought vulnerability and severity studied by using Reservoir Drought Index (RDI). The RDI is designed to simulate daily water balance between available water from agricultural reservoir and water requirement in paddies and is calculated with a frequency analysis of monthly water deficit based on water demand and water supply condition. The results indicated that RDI can be used to assess regional drought risk in agricultural perspective by comparing with the historical records of drought in 2012. It can be concluded that the RDI obtained good performance to reflect the historical drought events for both spatially and temporally. In addition, RDI is expected to contribute to determine the exact situation on the current drought condition for evaluating regional drought risk and to assist the effective drought-related decision making.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.42 no.6
• /
• pp.371-376
• /
• 2009

In this article, we reviewed the literature on risk assessment (RA) models with and without molecular genomic markers and the current utility of the markers in the pharmacogenetic field. Epidemiological risk assessment is applied using statistical models and equations established from current scientific knowledge of risk and disease. Several papers have reported that traditional RA tools have significant limitations in decision-making in management strategies for individuals as predictions of diseases and disease progression are inaccurate. Recently, the model added information on the genetic susceptibility factors that are expected to be most responsible for differences in individual risk. On the continuum of health care, from diagnosis to treatment, pharmacogenetics has been developed based on the accumulated knowledge of human genomic variation involving drug distribution and metabolism and the target of action, which has the potential to facilitate personalized medicine that can avoid therapeutic failure and serious side effects. There are many challenges for the applicability of genomic information in a clinical setting. Current uses of genetic markers for managing drug therapy and issues in the development of a valid biomarker in pharmacogenetics are discussed.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
• /
• v.42 no.3
• /
• pp.373-376
• /
• 2010

The objective of this study was to present the proper probability distribution model based on the data obtained from surveys on domestic refrigerator food storage temperatures in home. Domestic refrigerator temperatures were determined as risk factors in foodborne disease outbreaks for microbial risk assessment (MRA). The temperature was measured by directly visiting 139 homes using a data logger from May to September of 2009. The overall mean temperature for all the refrigerators in the survey was $3.53{\pm}2.96^{\circ}C$, with 23.6% of the refrigerators measuring above $5^{\circ}C$. Probability distributions were also created using @RISK program based on the measured temperature data. Statistical ranking was determined by the goodness of fit (GOF, i.e., the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or Anderson-Darling (AD) test) to determine the proper probability distribution model. This result showed that the LogLogistic (-10.407, 13.616, 8.6107) distribution was found to be the most appropriate for the MRA model. The results of this study might be directly used as input variables in exposure evaluation for conducting MRA.

• Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
• /
• v.25 no.10
• /
• pp.534-539
• /
• 2013

In general, entire supply air of the BSL3 laboratory should be vented to the outside for its biosafety and the air conditioning system should always be operating to maintain a room pressure difference. In this regard, annual energy consumption is approximately five or ten times greater than the magnitude of the office building. In addition, to adjust room pressure difference to the set value efficiently, the supply and exhaust duct system are installed in each room of the BSL3 lab. Thus, initial construction cost is extremely high. In this study, multizone simulation is performed to estimate maintaining the appropriate room pressure difference in the case of changing model A (each room supply and exhaust system) to model B (each zone supply and exhaust system) for verification of the BSL3 lab biosafety. Also, in the case of these two models, the multizone simulation for three kinds of biohazard scenario is performed as part of risk assessment. The analysis of initial construction cost of two models is conducted for comparison. According to the studies, initial construction cost of model B is less than about 22% of existing model A. Moreover, biosafety of the BSL3 lab is still maintaining in the case of the two models.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
• /
• v.29 no.3
• /
• pp.307-314
• /
• 2016

Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
• /
• v.45 no.1
• /
• pp.82-96
• /
• 2019

Objective: The aims of this study were to provide the basic data for establishing a precautionary management policy and to develop a methodology for selecting a radon management priority target area suitable for the Korean domestic environment. Methods: A suitable mapping method for the domestic environment was derived by conducting a quantitative comparison of predicted values and measured values that were calculated through implementation of two models such as IDW and RBF methods. And a qualitative comparison including the clarity of information transmission of the written radon map was carried out. Results: The predicted and measured values were obtained through the implementation of the spatial analysis models. The IDW method showed the lowest in the calculated mean square error and had a higher correlation coefficient than the other methods. As results of comparing the uncertainty using the jackknife concept and the concept of error distance for comparison of the differences according to the model interpolation method, the sum of the error distances showed a modest increase compared with the RBF method. As a result of qualitatively comparing the information transfer clarity between the radon maps prepared with the predicted values through the model implementation, it was found that the maps plotted using the predicted values by the implementation of the IDW method had greater clarity in terms of highness and lowness of radon concentration per area compared with the maps plotted by other methods. Conclusions: The radon management priority area suggests selecting a metropolitan city including an area with a high radon concentration.