• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.41-55
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• 2010

The aims of this study were to develop the suitable "system software" in chemical ranking and scoring (CRS) for the food hazardous chemicals associated with environmental emission and to suggest the priority lists of food contamination by environmental-origined pollutants. Study materials were selected with reference to the priority pollutants list for environment and food management from domestic and foreign research and the number of study materials is 103 pollutants (18 heavy metals, 10 PBTs, 10 EDs, and 65 organic compounds). The Food-CRS-Korea system consisted of the environmental fate model via multimedia, transfer environment to food model, and health risk assessment by contaminated food intake. We have established that health risks of excess cancer risks, hazard quotients (HQs) by chronic toxicity and HQs by reproductive toxicity convert to score, respectively. The creditable scoring system was designed to consider uncertainty of quantitative risk assessment based on VOI (Value-Of-Information). The predictability of the Food-CRS-Korea model was evaluated by comparing the presumable values and the measured ones of the environmental media and foodstuffs. The priority lists based on emissions with background-level-correction are 15 pollutants such as arsenic, cadmium, and etc. The priority lists based on environmental monitoring date are 17 pollutants including DEHP, TCDD, and so on. Consequently, we suggested the priority lists of 13 pollutants by considering the several emission and exposure scenarios. According to the Food-CRS-Korea system, arsenics, cadmium, chromes, DEHP, leads, and nickels have high health risk rates and reliable grades.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• 제58권3호
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• pp.325-345
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• 2020

본 연구에서는 다매체 퓨가시티 모델을 기반으로 Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) 방지기술의 인체위해성·환경성·경제성 평가를 수행하여 석유화학 산업단지 내 VOCs 저감을 위한 최적가용기법(Best available technology, BAT)을 선정하였다. 다매체 퓨가시티 모델을 이용하여 U-city에 소재한 석유화학 산업단지에서 배출되는 VOCs 중 Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene, Xylene (BTEX)의 다매체 거동 특성과 잔류농도 분포를 예측하였다. 매체 통합 인체위해성 평가 및 민감도 분석을 이용해 BTEX의 물질별 인체위해성을 예측하고 주요 영향 변수를 규명하였으며, 다매체 환경시스템 내 잔류농도 기준의 환경성 평가와 비용-편익 경제성 평가를 수행하여 우수환경관리기법군(BAT군)을 선정하였다. BTEX의 다매체 거동 분석 결과, 토양 매체에서 높은 잔류 분포 특성(60%, 61%, 64%, 63%)을 보였으며, Xylene은 모든 다매체 환경에서 가장 높은 잔류성을 보였다. BAT후보군 중에서 흡수법은 가장 높은 인체위해성을 보여 BAT 선정에서 제외하였으며, 민감도 분석 결과 대기 매체에서의 물질 반감기와 경로별 노출계수가 인체위해성과 높은 상관성이 있는 것으로 판단되었다. 환경성 평가와 비용-편익 경제성 평가를 고려하여, 재생 열산화법, 재생 촉매산화법, 바이오 필터법, UV 산화법, 활성탄 흡착법을 석유화학 산업단지 내 VOCs 저감을 위한 BAT군으로 선정하였으며, 본 연구에서 제시한 매체통합적 접근 방식의 BAT 선정 방법론은 사업장에서 오염물질 저감을 위한 최적의 배출시설 선정과 통합환경관리제도 운영에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국식품위생안전성학회지
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.248-254
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• 2018

본 연구에서 소비-섭취 시나리오와 온도-시간의 장염비브리오 생육모델을 활용하여 국내 생굴의 병원성 장염 비브리오균의 위해평가를 실시하였다. 장염 비브리오균의 오염 수준 및 병원성 인자 데이터를 활용하였으며, 국민건강영양조사와 농촌진흥청의 표준레시피를 활용하여 섭취량을 조사하였고 용량반응관계는 Beta-Poisson모델을 활용하였다. 국내 소비자가 생굴을 섭취할 때 병원성 장염 비브리오균으로 발생하는 위해는 식중독이 주로 발생하는 4월, 10월, 11월에 $5.71{\times}10^{-5}$ (5퍼센타일 $2.71{\times}10^{-8}$, 95퍼센타일 $1.03{\times}10^{-4}$로 추정되었다. 본 연구에서 생굴의 장염비브리오 위해의 영향인자는 소비시점 생굴의 장염비브리오균의 오염수준, 생굴 섭취량, 병원성 인자(tdh or trh 유전자)의 존재 여부, 상온의 노출온도 및 시간으로 나타났으며 위해관리방안을 제시하였다.

• 한국지역사회생활과학회지
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.167-177
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• 2004

미생물 위해성 평가 방법론을 이용하여 살모넬라 발생 수를 추정하고, 기존의 연구 결과와 비교하여 그 활용 가능성에 대해 알아보았다. 살모넬라균의 오염수준은 국내에 발표된 각종 문헌(1997∼2000)과 관련 기관의 모니터링 자료(1999∼2001)를 수집하여 추정하였고, 식품 섭취 량은 2001 국민건강영양조사, 용량-반응 모델은 외국에서 발표된 연구 결과를 이용하였다. 각 변수를 시뮬레이션을 통해 추정한 결과 1년 동안 국내에서 발생 가능한 살모넬라 환자 수는 753,368명으로 나타났는데, 이는 보고된 환자수의 약 115배로 WHO의 추정배수보다는 낮은 결과를 보였다. 이상의 결과를 볼 때, 미생물 위해성 평가 방법은 식중독 발생 환자 수를 추정하고 식중독 관리에 있어서의 우선순위를 결정하는 데 이용이 가능한 것으로 보인다. 그러나 아직까지 검증 방법이 확립되어 있지 않고, 식중독균의 오염농도, 식품 섭취량, 용량-반응 관계, 유통ㆍ보관ㆍ조리 등의 실태에 관한 연구가 좀더 필요할 것으로 생각된다.

• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.873-882
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• 2022

연구목적:본 논문은 컨테이너 터미널에서 발생하는 사고 및 잠재적 위험에 대한 분석과 컨테이너 터미널 맞춤형 안전관리계획에 대한 연구를 수행하는데 목적이 있다. 연구방법:컨테이너 터미널 위험성 평가 사례연구 및 문헌분석을 통하여 안전관리 모델을 제시한다. 연구결과: '항만하역산업 사고 재해 통계'에 따르면 2011년부터 2021년까지 10년 동안 항만 작업 중 숨지거나 다친 사람이 무려 2,800명에 달했다. 이는 1.5일에 한 명꼴로 산업재해가 발생한 수치이다. 이러한 사고 재해의 개선 방법으로, 항만안전특별법에 따라 사고 재발 방지를 위하여 실효성이 높은 안전관리계획을 수립하여야 한다. 컨테이너 터미널의 위험성평가, 안전조직, 안전예산, 안전수칙, 안전교육 등을 반영한 안전관리계획을 수립할 것을 제시하였다.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.65-77
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• 2006

This study proposes a Bayesian dynamic model in a hierarchical way to assess the time-varying effect of risk factors on the likelihood of corporate bankruptcy. For the longitudinal data, we aim to describe dynamically evolving effects of covariates more articulately compared to the Generalized Estimating Equation approach. In the analysis, it is shown that the proposed model outperforms in terms of sensitivity and specificity. Besides, the usefulness of this study can be found from the flexibility in describing the dependence structure among time specific parameters and suitability for assessing the time effect of risk factors.

• 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농공학회 2005년도 학술발표논문집
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• pp.502-508
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• 2005

In order to assess the environmental risk of pesticides, information is usually required on the likelihood of exposure of organisms to the constituents of pesticides, expressed as a predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) and the likely effects of the constituents of pesticides on aquatic and terrestrial organisms, expressed as a predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs). In this paper, the pesticide fate model, RICEWQ alone and coupled with the pesticide movement model, RIVWQ was used to simulate the potential for predicting the environmental concentrations of pesticides in paddy fields and adjacent surface water systems. The RICEWQ model was successfully calibrated against field data in poinding depth for paddy field. For the assessment of importance for water and pesticide management conditions and field scales, the integrated RICEWQ-RIVWQ model was simulated by the scenario analysis. The results of this study can be used as a basic information for assessing the environmental risk of pesticides.

• 한국토양비료학회지
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• 제46권6호
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• pp.434-444
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• 2013

In order to evaluate drought risk at upland according to climate change scenario (RCP8.5), we have carried out the simulation using agricultural water balance estimation model, called AFKAE0.5, at 66 weather station sites in 2020, 2046, 2050, 2084, and 2090. Total Drought Risk Index between the first month (f) and last month (l) (TDRI(f/l)) and maximum continuous drought risk index (MCDRI(f/l)) were defined as the index for analyzing pattern and strength of drought simulated by the model. Based on distribution maps of MCDRI (1/12), drought strength was predicted to be most severe in 2084 for all regions. Some regions showed severe risk of drought meaning over 20 days of MCDRI (1/12) in the other years, while MCDRI (1/12) in other regions did not reach 5 days. Even though maximum value of TDRI (1/12) in 2090 was greater than in 2050, more severe drought risk in 2050 than in 2090 was predicted based on MCDRI (4/6). It implies that drought risk should be assessed for each crop with its own growing season.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.108-119
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• 2024

Objectives: Abrupt changes in air pollution levels associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak present a unique opportunity to evaluate the effects of air pollution on influenza risk, at a time when emission sources were less active and personal hygiene practices were more rigorous. Methods: This time-series study examined the relationship between influenza cases (n=22 874) and air pollutant concentrations from 2018 to 2021, comparing the timeframes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in and around Thailand's Khon Kaen province. Poisson generalized additive modeling was employed to estimate the relative risk of hospitalization for influenza associated with air pollutant levels. Results: Before the COVID-19 outbreak, both the average daily number of influenza hospitalizations and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 ㎛ or less (PM_2.5) concentration exceeded those later observed during the pandemic (p<0.001). In single-pollutant models, a 10 ㎍/m³ increase in PM_2.5 before COVID-19 was significantly associated with increased influenza risk upon exposure to cumulative-day lags, specifically lags 0-5 and 0-6 (p<0.01). After adjustment for co-pollutants, PM_2.5 demonstrated the strongest effects at lags 0 and 4, with elevated risk found across all cumulative-day lags (0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, and 0-6) and significantly greater risk in the winter and summer at lag 0-5 (p<0.01). However, the PM_2.5 level was not significantly associated with influenza risk during the COVID-19 outbreak. Conclusions: Lockdown measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic could mitigate the risk of PM_2.5-induced influenza. Effective regulatory actions in the context of COVID-19 may decrease PM_2.5 emissions and improve hygiene practices, thereby reducing influenza hospitalizations.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.398-403
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• 2006

Indoor air quality can be affected by indoor sources, ventilation, decay and outdoor levels. Understanding the effectiveness of indoor air quality control depends on knowledge of the characteristics of air pollutants in indoor air, especially their quantities and persistence, and the relevance of indoor sources to these factors. Toluene within new and established houses has been determined and factors significant to its presence have been identified. A total of 30 selected houses in Seoul, Asan and Daegu areas that were constructed within 4 years and over 4 years of construction were measured the concentration of toluene from July to September in 2004. Toluene emission decay of double-exponential model exhibited good fit of $Y=276.37e^{-1.21x}(R^{2}=0.34,\;P=0.06)$ for 2 years and then $Y=51.54e^{-0.11x}(R^{2}=0.40,\;P=0.0)$ from 23 years in new houses. In case of living in new houses, noncarcinogenic health effects of exposure to toluene was 1.38 of hazard quotient (HQ) comparing to toluene reference dose of 0.13 mg/kg-day.