• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk assessment model

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Evaluation and Assessment of Biosafety for Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt)-transgenic Rice: Responses of Daphnia magna Fed on Bt-transgenic Rice Variety (해충저항성 Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) 벼의 환경위해성 평가: 해충저항성 Bt벼가 물벼룩(Daphnia magna)에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Sung-Dug;Shin, Hye-Chul;Sohn, Soo-In;Lee, Ki-Jong;Kim, Hyo-Jin;Ryu, Tae-Hun;Lee, Jang-Yong;Park, Beom-Seok;Kweon, Soon-Jong;Suh, Seok-Cheol;Park, Jong-Sug
    • Journal of Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.296-302
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    • 2011
  • Insect-resistant transgenic rice was developed by inserting the mCry1Ac1 a modified gene from the soil bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). For biosafety assessment, we studied the effects on survival of cantor Daphnia magna, a commonly used as a model organism in ecotoxicological studies. D. magna fed on Bt rice and its near non-genetically modified (GM) counterparts (Nakdong) grown in the same environment (100% ground rice suspension). The Bt rice was comfirmed to have the insertion of T-DNA and protein expression by the polymerase chain reaction and ELISA analysis. Feeding study showed similar cumulative immobility and abnormal response of D. magna between Bt rice and non-GM counterparts. 48 h-$EC_{50}$ values of Bt rice and non-GM rice showed 4,429 and 2,889 mg/L respectively. The rice no observed effect concentration (NOEC) values for D. magna was suggested 1,000 mg/L. We conclude that the tested Bt-rice and Nakdong similar cumulative immobility for D. magna the widely used model organism. We found out that there is strong possibility that the growth of Bt rice didn't affect to non-target insects.

Analysis of Soil Erodibility Potential Depending on Soil and Topographic Condition - A Case Study of Ibang-myeon, Changnyeong-gun, Kyungsangnam-do, South Korea- (토양 및 지형 조건에 따른 토양침식 잠재성 분석 - 경상남도 창녕군 이방면을 대상으로 -)

  • Park, In-Hwan;Jang, Gab-Sue;Lee, Geun-Sang;Seo, Dong-Jo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2006
  • Changes in the soil physical property and the topographic condition derived from agricultural activities like as farming activities, land clearance and cutting down resulted in environmental and economic problems including the outflow of nutrient from farms and the water pollution. Several theories on the soil conservation have been developed and reviewed to protect soil erosion in the regions having a high risk of erosion. This study was done using the USLE model developed by Wischmeier and Smith (1978), and model for the slope length and steepness made by Desmet and Govers (1996), and Nearing (1997) to evaluate the potential of the soil erodibility. Therefore, several results were obtained as follows. First, factors affecting the soil erosion based on the USLE could be extracted to examine the erosion potential in farms. Soil erodibility (K), slope length (L), and slope steepness (S) were used as main factors in the USLE in consideration of the soil, not by the land use or land cover. Second, the soil erodibility increased in paddy soils where it is low in soil content, and the very fine sandy loam exists. Analysis of the slope length showed that the value of a flat ground was 1, and the maximum value was 9.17 appearing on the steep mountain. Soil erodibility showed positive relationship to a slope. Third, the potential soil erodibility index (PSEI) showed that it is high in the PSEI of the areas of steep upland and orchard on the slope of mountainous region around Dokjigol mountain, Dunji mountain, and Deummit mountain. And the PSEI in the same land cover was different depending on the slope rather than on the physical properties in soil. Forth, the analysis of land suitability in soil erosion explained that study area had 3,672.35ha showing the suitable land, 390.88ha for the proper land, and 216.54ha for the unsuitable land. For unsuitable land, 8.71ha and 6.29ha were shown in fallow uplands and single cropping uplands, respectively.

The Relationship between Lipid Accumulation Product, Insulin Resistance and Obesity in Korean Adults (대한민국 성인에서 한국 성인의 지질 축적 지수와 인슐린 저항성 및 비만의 관련성)

  • Yoon, Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.149-156
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    • 2022
  • Lipid accumulation product (LAP) is a new index reflecting central lipid accumulation and is known to be a strong independent indicator for identifying the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or diabetes mellitus (DM). This study was conducted to assess the relationship between the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and LAP according to the presence or absence of obesity in Korean adults. The study was carried out using data from the 2019 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) and included 6,090 adults aged 20 years or older. There were several key findings. First, after adjusting for related variables, the mean of the HOMA-IR levels (M±SE, 95% confidence interval) was positively associated with the quartiles of LAP in the overall population (P<0.001), non-obese (P<0.001) or obese groups (P<0.001). Second, in all the groups (overall population, non-obese and obese groups), the mean value of the fasting blood glucose (all, P<0.001), insulin (all, P<0.001), and the metabolic syndrome score (all, P<0.001) increased with the increasing quartiles of LAP. Insulin resistance was thus positively associated with an increase in the LAP in Korean adults with or without obesity.

Development of a predictive model describing the growth of Staphylococcus aureus in processed meat product galbitang (식육추출가공품 중 갈비탕에서의 Staphylococcus aureus 성장예측모델 개발)

  • Son, Na-Ry;Kim, An-Na;Choi, Won-Seok;Yoon, Sang-Hyun;Suh, Soo-Hwan;Joo, In-Sun;Kim, Soon-Han;Kwak, Hyo-Sun;Cho, Joon-Il
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.274-278
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    • 2017
  • In this study, predictive mathematical models were developed to estimate the kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus growth in processed meat product galbitang. Processed meat product galbitang was inoculated with 0.1 mL of S. aureus culture and stored at 4, 10, 20, $37^{\circ}C$. The ${\mu}_{max}$ (maximum specific growth rate) and LPD (lag phase duration) values were calculated. The primary model was used to develop a response surface secondary model. The growth parameters were analyzed using the square root model as a function of storage temperature. The developed model was confirmed by calculating RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) values as statistic parameters. The LPD decreased, but ${\mu}_{max}$ increased with an increase in the storage temperature. At 4, 10, 20 and $37^{\circ}C$, $R^2$ was 0.99, 0.98, 0.99 and 0.99, respectively; RMSE was 0.39. The developed predictive growth model can be used to predict the risk of S. aureus contamination in processed meat product galbitang; hence, it has potential as an input model for the risk assessment.

A Study on the Overall Economic Risks of a Hypothetical Severe Accident in Nuclear Power Plant Using the Delphi Method (델파이 기법을 이용한 원전사고의 종합적인 경제적 리스크 평가)

  • Jang, Han-Ki;Kim, Joo-Yeon;Lee, Jai-Ki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2008
  • Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated by applying the Delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factors. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be divided into direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and the indirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The Delphi method however subjects to risk of distortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed. One-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and median values of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the value suggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect the judgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic risk was about 3.9% of the gross domestic products(GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, was not taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifying the radiological emergency planning and preparedness.

Risk Assessment of Pine Tree Dieback in Sogwang-Ri, Uljin (울진 소광리 금강소나무 고사발생 특성 분석 및 위험지역 평가)

  • Kim, Eun-Sook;Lee, Bora;Kim, Jaebeom;Cho, Nanghyun;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.109 no.3
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    • pp.259-270
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    • 2020
  • Extreme weather events, such as heat and drought, have occurred frequently over the past two decades. This has led to continuous reports of cases of forest damage due to physiological stress, not pest damage. In 2014, pine trees were collectively damaged in the forest genetic resources reserve of Sogwang-ri, Uljin, South Korea. An investigation was launched to determine the causes of the dieback, so that a forest management plan could be prepared to deal with the current dieback, and to prevent future damage. This study aimedto 1) understand the topographic and structural characteristics of the area which experienced pine tree dieback, 2) identify the main causes of the dieback, and 3) predict future risk areas through the use of machine-learning techniques. A model for identifying risk areas was developed using 14 explanatory variables, including location, elevation, slope, and age class. When three machine-learning techniques-Decision Tree, Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to the model, RF and SVM showed higher predictability scores, with accuracies over 93%. Our analysis of the variable set showed that the topographical areas most vulnerable to pine dieback were those with high altitudes, high daily solar radiation, and limited water availability. We also found that, when it came to forest stand characteristics, pine trees with high vertical stand densities (5-15 m high) and higher age classes experienced a higher risk of dieback. The RF and SVM models predicted that 9.5% or 115 ha of the Geumgang Pine Forest are at high risk for pine dieback. Our study suggests the need for further investigation into the vulnerable areas of the Geumgang Pine Forest, and also for climate change adaptive forest management steps to protect those areas which remain undamaged.

Study on Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Response using a SWAT model in the Xe Bang Fai River Basin, Lao People's Democratic Republic (기후변화에 따른 라오스인민공화국의 시방파이 유역의 수문현상 예측에 대한 연구: SWAT 모델을 이용하여)

  • Phomsouvanh, Virasith;Phetpaseuth, Vannaphone;Park, Soo Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.779-797
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    • 2016
  • A calibrated hydrological model is a useful tool for quantifying the impacts of the climate variations and land use/land cover changes on sediment load, water quality and runoff. In the rainy season each year, the Xe Bang Fai river basin is provisionally flooded because of typhoons, the frequency and intensity of which are sensitive to ongoing climate change. Severe heavy rainfall has continuously occurred in this basin area, often causing severe floods at downstream of the Xe Bang Fai river basin. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the climate change impact on river discharge using a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model based on future climate change scenarios. In this study, the simulation of hydrological river discharge is used by SWAT model, covering a total area of $10,064km^2$ in the central part of country. The hydrological model (baseline) is calibrated and validated for two periods: 2001-2005 and 2006-2010, respectively. The monthly simulation outcomes during the calibration and validation model are good results with $R^2$ > 0.9 and ENS > 0.9. Because of ongoing climate change, three climate models (IPSL CM5A-MR 2030, GISS E2-R-CC 2030 and GFDL CM3 2030) indicate that the rainfall in this area is likely to increase up to 10% during the summer monsoon season in the near future, year 2030. As a result of these precipitation increases, the SWAT model predicts rainy season (Jul-Aug-Sep) river discharge at the Xebangfai@bridge station will be about $800m^3/s$ larger than the present. This calibrated model is expected to contribute for preventing flood disaster risk and sustainable development of Laos

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Application of Water Model for the Evaluation of Pesticide Exposure (농약의 노출 평가를 위한 수계예측모형의 적용)

  • Son, Kyeong-Ae;Kim, Chan-Sub;Gil, Geun-Hwan;Kim, Taek-Kyum;Kwon, Hyeyoung;Kim, Jinbae;Im, Geon-Jae;Ihm, Yang-Bin
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.236-246
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    • 2014
  • Pesticide is used to protect the crops, but also become a cause of polluting the environment. Perform a risk assessment using physical and chemical properties, environmental fate and toxicity data in order to determine the pesticide registration. The aquatic model estimates pesticide concentrations in water bodies that result from pesticide applications to rice paddies and apple orchard. The used models are the PRZM, EXAMS and AGRO shell (PA5), Rice Water Quality Model (RICEWQ) and Screening Concentration In GROund Water (SCI-GROW). The residual concentration of water body was estimated using meteorological data, crop calendar and soil series of Korea. The chosen pesticides were butachlor, carbofuran, iprobenfos and tebuconazole. It has shown the potential that the RICEWQ is possible to predict residue level in water of butachlor and iprobenfos, because the maximum value in water monitoring data is lower than the peak concentration of the model, and the minimum value is lower than the average annual concentration of the model. But RICEWQ was insufficient to predict exposure concentrations in ground water. The estimated exposure concentrations of carbofuran in ground water is very higher than in surface water because of its low soil adsorption coefficient. Although tebuconazole were not detected in the water monitoring that means very low concentration, it is possible that the PA5 can be used to predict residue level in water.

Computation of Maximum Edible Time using Monitoring Data of Staphylococcus aureus in Kimbap and Food MicroModel (Food $MicroModel^\circledR$과 황색포도상구균의 모니터링 자료를 활용한 시중 유통 김밥의 최대섭취유효시간 산정)

  • 이효민;이근영;윤은경;김현정;강윤숙;이동하;박종석;이순호;우건조
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.49-54
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    • 2004
  • The prevention of infectious disease from contaminated foods is very important in public health. Quantitative microbial risk assessment has been used in advance countries to achieve the safety of public health against hazardous microbial causing contaminated foods. This study was conducted to estimate maximum edible time without producing enterotoxin from Staphylococcus aureus in Kimbap selling at different domestic store using Food MicroModel and monitoring data and to compute maximum edible time by temperature with 99th percentile safety probability based on only restaurant data. For estimating maximum edible time, model operation conditions like reaching time at 2 ${\times}$ 10$^{7}$ , which enterotoxin was known as producing point from S. aureus, temperature of 28∼3$0^{\circ}C$, pH 5.2, NaCl 0.22%, aw(water activity) 0.99, and intaking one serving size of 171g in Kimbap were considered. Estimated maximum edible times by regarding outdoor temperature in summer were 3.9∼4.6 hrs in restaurant, 6.7∼7.9 hrs in department store and 7.4∼8.7 hrs in convenient store. Based on restaurant data, estimated maximum edible times with 99th percentile safety probability by temperature were 1.9 hrs in 3$0^{\circ}C$ and 17.7 hrs in 15$^{\circ}C$.

Development and Application of a Coastal Disaster Resilience Measurement Model for Climate Change Adaptation: Focusing on Coastal Erosion Cases (기후변화 적응을 위한 연안 재해 회복탄력성 측정 모형의 개발 및 적용: 연안침식 사례를 중심으로)

  • Seung Won Kang;Moon Suk Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.713-723
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    • 2023
  • Climate change is significantly affecting coastal areas, and its impacts are expected to intensify. Recent studies on climate change adaptation and risk assessment in coastal regions increasingly integrate the concepts of recovery resilience and vulnerability. The aim of this study is to develop a measurement model for coastal hazard recovery resilience in the context of climate change adaptation. Before constructing the measurement model, a comprehensive literature review was conducted on coastal hazard recovery resilience, establishing a conceptual framework that included operational definitions for vulnerability and recovery resilience, along with several feedback mechanisms. The measurement model for coastal hazard recovery resilience comprised four metrics (MRV, LRV, RTSPV, and ND) and a Coastal Resilience Index (CRI). The developed indices were applied to domestic coastal erosion cases, and regional analyses were performed based on the index grades. The results revealed that the four recovery resilience metrics provided insights into the diverse characteristics of coastal erosion recovery resilience at each location. Mapping the composite indices of coastal resilience indicated that the areas along the East Sea exhibited relatively lower coastal erosion recovery resilience than the West and South Sea regions. The developed recovery resilience measurement model can serve as a tool for discussions on post-adaptation strategies and is applicable for determining policy priorities among different vulnerable regional groups.