• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk assessment model

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Predictive Model for Growth of Staphylococcus aureus in Suyuk (수육에서의 Staphylococcus aureus 성장 예측모델)

  • Park, Hyoung-Su;Bahk, Gyung-Jin;Park, Ki-Hwan;Pak, Ji-Yeon;Ryu, Kyung
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.487-494
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    • 2010
  • Cooked pork can be easily contaminated with Staphylococcus aureus during carriage and serving after cooking. This study was performed to develop growth prediction models of S. aureus to assure the safety of cooked pork. The Baranyi and Gompertz primary predictive models were compared. These growth models for S. aureus in cooked pork were developed at storage temperatures of 5, 15, and $25^{\circ}C$. The specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) values were calculated. The Baranyi model, which displayed a $R^2$ of 0.98 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.27, was more compatible than the Gompertz model, which displayed 0.84 in both $R^2$ and RMSE. The Baranyi model was used to develop a response surface secondary model to indicate changes of LT and SGR values according to storage temperature. The compatibility of the developed model was confirmed by calculating $R^2$, $B_f$, $A_f$, and RMSE values as statistic parameters. At 5, 15 and $25^{\circ}C$, $R^2$ was 0.88, 0.99 and 0.99; RMSE was 0.11, 0.24 and 0.10; $B_f$ was 1.12, 1.02 and 1.03; and $A_f$ was 1.17, 1.03 and 1.03, respectively. The developed predictive growth model is suitable to predict the growth of S. aureus in cooked pork, and so has potential in the microbial risk assessment as an input value or model.

Role of a Risk of Malignancy Index in Clinical Approaches to Adnexal Masses

  • Simsek, Hakki Sencer;Tokmak, Aytekin;Ozgu, Emre;Doganay, Melike;Danisman, Nuri;Erkaya, Salim;Gungor, Tayfun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.18
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    • pp.7793-7797
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    • 2014
  • Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate predictive role of risk of malignancy index in discriminating between benign and malignant adnexal masses preoperatively. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted with a total of 569 patients with adnexal masses/ovarian cysts managed surgically at our clinic between January 2006 and January 2012. Obtained data from patient files were age, gravidity, parity, menopause status, ultrasound findings and CA125 levels. For all patients ultrasound scans were performed. For the assessment of risk of malignancy index (RMI) Jacobs' model was used. Histopathologic results of all patients were recorded postoperatively. Malignancy status of the surgically removed adnexal mass was the gold standard. Results: Of the total masses, 245 (43.1%) were malignant, 316 (55.5%) were benign and 8 (1.4%) were borderline. The mean age of benign cases was lower than malign cases ($35.2{\pm}10.9$ versus $50.8{\pm}13.4$, p<0.001). Four hundred and five of them (71.2%) were in premenopausal period. Malignant tumors were more frequent in postmenopausal women (81% versus 29%, p<0.001). All ultrasound parameters of RMI were statistically significantly favorable for malignant masses. In our study ROC curve analysis for RMI provided maximum Youden index at level of 163.85. When we based on cutoff level for RMI as 163.85 sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV was calculated 74.7%, 96.2%, 94% and 82.6%, respectively. Conclusions: RMI was found to be a significant marker in preoperative evaluation and management of patients with an adnexal mass, and was useful for referring patients to tertiary care centers. Although utilization of RMI provides increased diagnostic accuracy in preoperative evaluation of patient with an adnexal mass, new diagnostic tools with higher sensitivity and specificity are needed to discriminate ovarian cancer from benign masses.

Design and Research for Intelligent Typhoon Evasion System for Ships

  • Wang, Jing-Quan;He, Yi;Shi, Ping-An;Peng, Xiao-Hong;Xu, Zu-Yuan;Qin, Shan-Ci;Li, Qing-Lie;Ding, Bing-Lin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.177-186
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    • 2001
  • Based upon the previous experiences and typical oases of typhoon evasion fur ships as well as tile achievement in scientific research in this detrain, we developed the Intelligent Typhoon Evasion System for Ships. It consists of five subsystems, including electronic charts, ship movement management, typhoon information query and automatic plotting, real-time calculation of ship-typhoon situation, intelligent typhoon evasion decision making. With the synthetical application of analogy theory, synoptic chart, satellite cloud picture analysis, typhoon digital forecast and other relevant technologies, we leave established the typhoon evasion data bases. model bases and knowledge bases, which make it possible to automatically track the ships and typhoon paths. The system can realize ship-typhoon situation analysis, risk levee assessment, typhoon paths correction and course synoptic forecast, and intelligent typhoon evasion decision making.

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A Study on the Transition and Improvement Plan of e-Trade Marketing (전자무역 마케팅의 변화와 발전 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang Jin;Kim, Hyoung Cheol
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.60
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    • pp.213-234
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    • 2013
  • e-Trade 3.0 era which means the expansion of seamless e-Trade process into global business has been come. e-Trade is in the evolution stage with the reflection of time changes and IT development. Furthermore e-Trade marketing method of SMEs has been generalized. However, SMEs have not utilized e-Trade marketing very actively even if it has much benefits in exploring overseas marketing. In this regard this paper has cautiously suggested the strategic using plan of e-Marketplace and SNS along with policy improvement in order to promote extensive diffusion of e-Trade marketing. First of all, a comprehensive evaluation system has to be developed for the assessment of overseas marketing program and provide organized guideline including SMEs support system. Also e-Marketplace operation company is necessary to invent management system for supervising and detecting risk factors of participating firms and business model to share information which each e-Marketplace possesses through mutual connection. Finally, the effective supports such as short-term education and acting operation of initial account to use SNS strategically are needed and continuous contents development to adopt SNS is absolute.

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Characterization of Toxic Pollutants in Ash and Flue Gas from Gasification Incinerator of Waste Tires (폐타이어 건류 소각에서 발생되는 재와 배기 가스에서의 독성 오염 물질의 정량)

  • Koo, Ja Kong;Seo, Young Hwa;Kim, Seok Wan;Yoo, Dong Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.213-220
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    • 1993
  • The problem of disposing of huge quantities of used tires is of growing concern to every country. As an economical solid waste management, a gasification followed by incineration process was applied to scrap tires to recover heat and to reduce waste volume for final landfill disposal. The gasification temperature, combustible and non-combustible gasified products and possibly produced air pollutants were predicted by changing equivalent mole ratios of carbon to oxygen by a chemical equilibrium model. For a risk assessment of ash toxic pollutants including heavy metals and toxic organics were thoroughly analyzed. Gasification bottom ash contained much more toxic organic compounds than fly ash, whereas fly ash contained higher concentration of heavy metals such as Pb and Cd. Pretreatment or secure landfill technology is suggested for a safe management of ash produced from the gasification incinerators.

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Study on the Asymmetric Regional Deposition of Airborne Pollutant Particles in the Human Respiratory Tract (대기오염 입자의 인체 호흡기내 비대칭 국부침전 특성에 관한 연구)

  • 구재학;김종숭
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.551-560
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    • 2003
  • Particle deposition in human lungs was investigated theoretically by using asymmetric five-lobe lung model. The volumes of each of the five lobes were different, thereby forming an asymmetric lung structure. The tidal volume and flow rate of each lobe were scaled according to lobar volume. The total and regional deposition with various breathing patterns were calculated by means of tracking volume segments and accounting for particle loss during inhalation and exhalation. The deposition fractions were obtained for each airway generation and lung lobe, and dominant deposition mechanisms were investigated for different size particles. Results show that the tidal volume and flow rate have a characteristic influence on particle deposition. The total deposition fraction increases with an increase in tidal volume for all particle sizes. However, flow rate has dichotomous effects: a higher flow rate results in a sharp increase in deposition for large size particles, but decreases deposition for small size particles. Deposition distribution within the lung shifts proximally with higher flow rate whereas deposition peak shifts to the deeper lung region with larger tidal volume. Deposition fraction in each lobe was proportional to its volume. Among the three main deposition mechanisms, diffusion was dominant for particles < 0.5 ${\mu}{\textrm}{m}$ whereas sedimentation and impaction were most influential for larger size particles. Impaction was particularly dominant for particles> 8 ${\mu}{\textrm}{m}$. The results may prove to be useful for estimating deposition dose of inhaled pollutant particles at various breathing conditions.

The Relationship Between Trajectories of Child Maltreatment and Adolescent Suicidal Ideation (아동의 종단적 학대 경험과 청소년기 자살생각 간 관계)

  • Kim, Se Won;Kim, Deok-Seong
    • Korean Journal of Child Studies
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2017
  • Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify the longitudinal relationship between child maltreatment and adolescent suicidal ideation. Several studies suggest that child maltreatment is associated with adolescent suicidal ideation. However, these studies have not focused on the duration of child maltreatment. Methods: Participants were 420 adolescents (52.6% male; 47.4% female) involved in the Korea Welfare Panel Study. Data were collected via youth self-report in 2006, 2009, and 2012. A self-report assessment of children and youths' experiences of physical, emotional, or neglect had been surveyed longitudinally. Questionnaires on adolescent suicidal ideation were answered in 2012. A growth mixture model and multiple regression were conducted using Mplus 5.21. Results: The study results showed that 93.5% of the children had experienced no maltreatment; 6.5% had experienced increasing maltreatment longitudinally. The trajectory of increasing maltreatment was positively associated with adolescent suicidal ideation. Conclusion: These results show that children suffering from chronic maltreatment are subject to a high risk of suicide and therefore require continuous supervision and management.

Analysis of the Availability of Risk Assessment Model for Typhoon Path which Affected Korean Peninsula (한반도에 영향을 미친 태풍 경로별 재해평가모형의 활용도 분석)

  • Park, Jong-Kil;Lee, Bo-Ram;Jung, Woo-Sik
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.25 no.11
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    • pp.1521-1530
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    • 2016
  • As a result of dividing typhoon that affected Korean Peninsular between 1999 and 2012 into 7 types of path and entering forecast field and analysis field of RDAPS, until 36 hours from the time of forecast, it is reliable to use the forecast field of RDAPS to predict typhoon and for each typhoon path, the difference between the forecast and the analysis shows normal distribution, which is usable for weather forecast until the $36^{th}$ hour. In the $48^{th}$ hour from the time of forecast, the difference of result depending on each typhoon path increased, which was analyzed to be due to errors in the forecast. It was expected that relatively reasonable results should be shown if the $36^{th}$ hour forecast is used to predict the strength and distribution of strong wind. As a result of using Korean RAM and observing the difference of the maximum damage, reliability was secured up to 36 hours and after 48hours, it was expected that the fluctuation of results may become more severe.

An Improved Analysis Model for the Ultimate Behavior of Unbonded Prestressed Concrete

  • Cho, Taejun;Kim, Myeong-Han
    • Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2017
  • An innovative analysis method is proposed in this paper for the determination of ultimate resistance of prestressed concrete beams. The proposed method can be applied to simply supported or continuous beams in a unified manner whether structure and external loads are symmetric or not. Through the iterative nonlinear strain compatibility solutions, this method can also be applied to the non-prismatic section/un-symmetrical composite structures under moving load. The conventional studies have used the failure criteria when the strain of concrete reaches 0.003. However compared with bonded case, the value of strain in the reinforcement is much smaller than bonded case, thus, unbonded prestressed cases show compressive failure mode. It is shown that the proposed method gives acceptable results within 5% error compared with the prior experimental results. It can be shown that the proposed method can reach the solution much faster than typical three-dimensional finite element analysis for the same problem. This method is applicable to the existing unbonded prestressed members where deterioration has occurred leading to the reduced ultimate resistance or safety. In all, the proposed procedure can be applied to the design and analysis of newly constructed structures, as well as the risk assessment of rehabilitated structures.

An Analysis on the Change of Health Status, Health Behavior, and Influencing Factors Among American College and University Students (미국 대학생의 건강수준, 건강행동 및 건강관련요인에 관한 변화 추이 분석)

  • Kim, Young-Bok
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.153-163
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    • 2010
  • Objectives: Analysis and understanding on the health trend of college and university students are paramount to creating healthy campus communities. We evaluated the change of health status, health behavior, and influencing factors among them in the last ten years. Methods: Using the results of the ACHA-National College Health Assessment from 2000 to 2009, we reanalyzed the trend of health condition, health behavior, and health risk factors in linear regression model. Results: In general health of college and university students, major health problem were allergy problems, back pain, and sinus infection. Academic impacts were stress, sleep difficulties, cold/flu, concern for troubled friend or family member, relationship difficulty, and internet use or computer games. Although regular exercise was decreasing among them, it were more likely to have never smoking, no sexual partner, and eating of fruits/vegetables as time passed (p<0.05, p<0.01). Obesity and sleeping difficulty were increasing, while it were less likely to have feeling very sad, feeling hopelessness, and considering attempting suicide (p<0.05, p<0.01). Conclusion: These data expand the understanding of the health needs and capacities among young adults. For Korean college and university students, it is necessary to standardize the data-collection survey to set the college health and healthy campus.