• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk assessment model

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Estimation of Environmental Costs Based on Size of Oil Tanker Involved in Accident using Neural Network (신경망을 이용한 유조선 기름 유출사고에 따른 환경비용 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Sung-Chul;Bae, Jeong-Hoon;Kim, Hyun-Soo;Kim, Seong-Hoon;Kim, Soo-Young;Lee, Jong-Kap
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.60-63
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    • 2012
  • The accident risks in the marine environment are increasing because of the tendency to build faster and larger ships. To secure ship safety, risk-based ship design (RBSD) was recently suggested based on a formal safety assessment (FSA). In the process of RBSD, a ship designer decides which risk reduction option is most cost-effective in the design stage using a cost-benefit analysis (CBA). There are three dimensions of risk in this CBA: fatality, environment, and asset. In this paper, we present an approach to estimate the environmental costs based on the size of an oil tanker involved in an accident using a neural network. An appropriate neural network model is suggested for the estimation,and the neural network is trained using IOPCF data. Finally,the learned neural network is compared with the cost regression equation by IMO MEPC 62/WP.13 (2011).

Study on Fatality Risk of Senior Driver with Aging Classification (초기·중기·후기 고령운전자의 사망자 발생위험도 분석과 시사점)

  • Choi, Jaesung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.148-161
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    • 2018
  • A traffic fatality by young people marked average annual decrease of 4.5% since 2011. Meanwhile, a traffic fatality by senior over 65 years old marked average annual increase of 7.9% for the last five years which means that the annual increase of traffic fatality by senior will be a serious problem. This study started questioning that senior drivers over 65 years old did not retain the same causal factor of fatal traffic accidents and thus extensively analyzed a risk of it by age group quantitatively, dividing the senior driver group into the early, middle and latter stages. Depending on the aging level, the risk of traffic fatality showed a wide difference in seven different types of traffic accidents generally, and happened to increase with latter and middle parts of the senior driver more than the early part. Therefore, this study proposes four policy suggestions: 1) The senior driver need to be offered customized driving educations and the improvement of road environment is also recommended. 2) Political assistance is needed to support and guide a safety related technology installation for the new or existing car. 3) Renewal of driving license and an aptitude test(physical examination, cognitive test) for drivers over 75 years old should take in a less than 3 years and an additional road test is needed as occasion demands. 4) Like the United States and Europe, development and extension of customized treatment guidebook for medical teams who examine senior drivers is needed and establishment of education and administration system that a supervisor of driving license renewal can impose safety restriction and American anonymity reporting system is considered to institutionalize in the medium to longer term.

Airborne Suspended Particulates Concentration and Cancer Risk Assessment of Polycyclic organic matter in Seoul (서울시 대기부유분진의 농도와 다환방향족 유기물질에 의한 발암 위해성)

  • Park, Seoung-Eun;Chung, Young
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.247-256
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    • 1992
  • Airborne suspended particulates were collected at Shinchon by a high volume cascade impactor from Sep. 1990 to Aug. 1991. Organic matter was extracted from particulates and fractionated by liquid-liquid extraction and thin layer chromatography. Substances in the PAHs and nitroarenes'subfraction of neutral fraction were determined by capillary gas chromatography. Based on unit risk estimates by multi-stage model of benzo[a]pyrene and the results of exposure estimates, cancer risk was assessed. The annual average concentration of total suspended particulates was 201.77g/$m^3$. The percentage of fine particulates was 57.40. The concentration of total suspended particulates showed seasonal variations and was high in winter and spring. The average concentration of extractable organic matter was 8.12g/$m^3$. In all, 21 PAHs were identified and quantified. The annual concentration of fluoranthene was 2.38ng/$m^3$, and that was the highest value of all PAHs. A carcinogenic compound, benzo[a]pyrene, was at a concentration of 1.84ng/$m^3$. All the 10 nitroarenes were also identified and quantified. The major nitroarene in the Shinchon area was 2,7-dinitrofluorene. The annual concentration of 1-nitropyrene was 1.56ng/$m^3$. Concentrations of PAHs and nitroarenes were high in winter and low in summer. The life time excess risk estimates of benzo[a]pyrene was calculated as 0.96 persons/a million population in this experiment. In the rank of relative potenties, carcinogenic effects of the other PAHs were calculated as 0.004-0.108 persons/a million population.

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Weighted Association Rule Discovery for Item Groups with Different Properties (상이한 특성을 갖는 아이템 그룹에 대한 가중 연관 규칙 탐사)

  • 김정자;정희택
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.1284-1290
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    • 2004
  • In market-basket analysis, weighted association rule(WAR) discovery can mine the rules which include more beneficial information by reflecting item importance for special products. However, when items are divided into more than one group and item importance for each group must be measured by different measurement or separately, we cannot directly apply traditional weighted association rule discovery. To solve this problem, we propose a novel methodology to discovery the weighted association rule in this paper In this methodology, the items should be first divided into sub-groups according to the properties of the items, and the item importance is defined or calculated only with the items enclosed to the sub-group. Our algorithm makes qualitative evaluation for network risk assessment possible by generating risk rule set for risk factor using network sorority data, and quantitative evaluation possible by calculating risk value using statistical factors such as weight applied in rule generation. And, It can be widely used for new model of more delicate analysis in market-basket database in which the data items are distinctly separated.

Design Vessel Selection of Maritime Bridges using Collision Risk Allocation Model (충돌위험분배모델을 이용한 해상교량의 설계선박 선정)

  • Lee, Seong-Lo;Lee, Byung Hwa;Bae, Yong-Gwi;Shin, Ho-Sang
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.123-134
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    • 2006
  • In this study ship collision risk analysis is performed to determine the design vessel for collision impact analysis of the maritime bridge. Method II which is a probability based analysis procedure is used to select the design vessel for collision impact from the risk analysis results. The analysis procedure, an iterative process in which a computed annual frequency of collapse(AF) is compared to the acceptance criterion, includes allocation method of acceptance criterion of annual frequency of bridge component collapse. The AF allocation by weights seems to be more reasonable than the pylon concentration allocation method because this AF allocation takes the design parameter characteristics quantitatively into consideration although the pylon concentration allocation method brings more economical results when the overestimated design collision strength of piers compared to the strength of pylon is moderately modified. From the assessment of ship collision risk for each bridge pier exposed to ship collision, a representative design vessel for all bridge components is selected. The design vessel size varies much from each other in the same bridge structure depending upon the vessel traffic characteristics.

Assessing the risk of recurrence of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in affected farms on Jeju Island, South Korea

  • Jang, Guehwan;Lee, Sunhee;Lee, Changhee
    • Journal of Veterinary Science
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.48.1-48.15
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    • 2021
  • Background: Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) is a swine enteropathogenic coronavirus that has devastated the swine industry in South Korea over the last 30 years. The lack of an effective method to control the endemics has led to a surge in PEDV recurrences in affected farms throughout the country. Objectives: In the first step toward establishing systematic monitoring of and active control measures over the swine populations, we constructed an assessment model that evaluates the status of (1) biosecurity, (2) herd immunity, and (3) virus circulation in each of the PEDV-infected farms. Methods: A total of 13 farrow-to-finish pig farms with a history of acute PEDV infection on Jeju Island were chosen for this study. The potential risk of the recurrence in these farms was estimated through on-site data collection and laboratory examination. Results: Overall, the data indicated that a considerable number of the PEDV-infected farms had lax biosecurity, achieved incomplete protective immunity in the sows despite multi-dose vaccination, and served as incubators of the circulating virus; thus, they face an increased risk of recurrent outbreaks. Intriguingly, our results suggest that after an outbreak, a farm requires proactive tasks, including reinforcing biosecurity, conducting serological and virus monitoring to check the sows' immunity and to identify the animals exposed to PEDV, and improving the vaccination scheme and disinfection practices if needed. Conclusions: The present study highlights the significance of coordinated PEDV management in infected farms to reduce the risk of recurrence and further contribute towards the national eradication of PEDV.

A study on the cyber security assessment modeling of critical infrastructure (핵심기반시설 사이버 보안 평가 모델링 기법 연구)

  • Euom, Ieck-Chae
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.105-113
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze cyber security risk modeling of critical infrastructure, draw out limitations and improvement measures. This paper analyzed cyber security risk modeling of national critical infrastructure like as electricity sector, nuclear power plant, SCADA. This paper analyzed the 26 precedent research cases of risk modeling in electricity sector, nuclear power plant, SCADA. The latest Critical Infrastructure is digitalized and has a windows operating system. Critical Infrastructure should be operated at all times, it is not possible to patch a vulnerability even though find vulnerability. This paper suggest the advanced cyber security modeling characteristic during the life cycle of the critical infrastructure and can be prevented.

The Association of Waist to Height Ratio and Resting Heart Rate with Cardio-metabolic Risk Factors in Korean Postmenopausal Women (한국 폐경 여성의 허리둘레/신장비 및 안정시 심박수와 심혈관-대사 위험요인과의 상관성)

  • Park, Ha-Nui;Byeon, Ji-Yong;Jeon, Justin Y.
    • Exercise Science
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.82-90
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    • 2019
  • PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to examine the association of waist to height ratio (WHtR) and resting heart rate (RHR) with cardio-metabolic risk factors among Korean postmenopausal women. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis was performed using the 2015 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The analysis included a total of 1,540 postmenopausal women. RESULTS: Individuals with higher WHtR (>0.56) showed significantly higher glucose, triglyceride, insulin, Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), total cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure compared with ones with lower WHtR (≤0.51). Similar findings were found in those with higher RHR (≥90 bpm) compared with ones with lower RHR (<60 bpm) for glucose and HOMA-IR. When determining the combined effects of WHtR and RHR on the prevalence of metabolic syndrome, individual with WHtR above 0.5 and RHR above 80 bpm showed 10.39 times higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome compared with those with WHtR below 0.5 and RHR below 70 bpm. We further performed multiple linear regression analysis to understand how WHtR and RHR contribute to fasting glucose, and found that both WHtR and RHR contribute to fasting glucose levels independent of age, education level, marital status and income level. CONCLUSIONS: The current study showed that the WHtR and RHR are associated with cardio-metabolic risk factor and prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Korean postmenopausal women.

A Study on the Feasibility analysis model for Housing Environment Improvement Project of Depressed region - Focused on the project by the public sector - (낙후지역 주거환경개선사업 타당성분석 평가모델 연구 - 공공(公共) 시행사업을 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Jung-Min;Choi, Chan-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Rural Architecture
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to set and analyze the standard model for prioritizing and deciding to take part in housing environment improvement project in the perspective of the public sector. The results of this study were as follows. The location competitiveness, potential demand, marketability and competitive price, etc were selected by assessment indicators. And Various indicators, including of the size of the area, public transportation, accessibility, convenience of living and the influx of the population, were used by weights indexes. The profit of local residents and the public promoter, variability of earnings, sensitivity analysis and the ratio of money in reserve, etc were also established as detailed indexes for the profitability and business risk analysis. To analyze the cash flow of the project process and review the necessary capital in advance, the payback, total working expenses, gearing ratio and sensitivity of a risk, etc were also set as additional detailed indexes. Lastly, considering it is quasi-public projects, the measure to protect tenants, necessity need of redevelopment and local government's will were additionally used by indexes. And Points were distributed on the importance of each index and scored out of 100. It will allow for the public project promoter to decide rationally whether to come in on the project. The public project promoter like the Korea Land and Housing Corporation will be able to make use of various indexes are based on this study to make decision whether joining the housing environment improvement project in depressed region.

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and their Bioaccessibility in Meat: a Tool for Assessing Human Cancer Risk

  • Hamidi, Elliyana Nadia;Hajeb, Parvaneh;Selamat, Jinap;Razis, Ahmad Faizal Abdull
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2016
  • Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are primarily formed as a result of thermal treatment of food, especially barbecuing or grilling. Contamination by PAHs is due to generation by direct pyrolysis of food nutrients and deposition from smoke produced through incomplete combustion of thermal agents. PAHs are ubiquitous compounds, well-known to be carcinogenic, which can reach the food in different ways. As an important human exposure pathway of contaminants, dietary intake of PAHs is of increasing concern for assessing cancer risk in the human body. In addition, the risks associated with consumption of barbecued meat may increase if consumers use cooking practices that enhance the concentrations of contaminants and their bioaccessibility. Since total PAHs always overestimate the actual amount that is available for absorption by the body, bioaccessibility of PAHs is to be preferred. Bioaccessibility of PAHs in food is the fraction of PAHs mobilized from food matrices during gastrointestinal digestion. An in vitro human digestion model was chosen for assessing the bioaccessibility of PAHs in food as it offers a simple, rapid, low cost alternative to human and animal studies; providing insights which may not be achievable in in vivo studies. Thus, this review aimed not only to provide an overview of general aspects of PAHs such as the formation, carcinogenicity, sources, occurrence, and factors affecting PAH concentrations, but also to enhance understanding of bioaccessibility assessment using an in vitro digestion model.