• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.691-698
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• 1997

The risk assessment model for dam and levee is applied to a river where two adjacent dams are located in the upstream of the watershed. "A" dam is proven to be safe with 200-year precipitation and unsafe with PMP condition, whereas "B" dam to be safe with 200-year precipitation and PMP condition. The computed risk considering the uncertainties of the runoff coefficient. initial water depth and relevant data of the dam and spillway turn out to be equivalent results in Monte-Carlo and AFOSM method. In levee risk model, this study addresses the uncertainty of water surface elevation by Manning's equation. Monte-Carlo simulation with the variations of Manning's roughness coefficient is calculated by assuming that it follows atriangular distribution. The model can be used for preparing flood risk maps, flood warning systems, and establishing nation's flood disaster protection plan.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.187-203
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• 2014

Objectives: As the demand to deal with pathogens in domestic research institutions has expanded and biological accidents have increased, the need for systematic biosafety management in infectious disease laboratories has grown. According to international standards, risk assessment (RA) is required for biosafety management. However, RA criteria have not been clearly established in Korea, so to this end I have attempted to determine RA criteria meeting international levels Methods: In order to provide RA criteria for application, I analyzed the RA criteria in use in the U.S., Europe and at international organizations. In order to ensure the public nature of the RA criteria, I constructed the research model through modified management consulting methodology reflecting the model of Radnor and O'Mahoney. Results: According to the results of the study, existing laboratory biosafety regulations were comparable to domestic laboratory safety laws. Existing laboratory biosafety standards that are designed around risk factors were found to be insufficient. An RA case to be carried out in infectious disease laboratories at the National Institute of Health of KCDC was identified. Conclusion: To establish a systematic risk management system meeting international standards, it was necessary first to harmonize the systems of national and international standards. In addition, in order to provide specific biosafety management on-site, I recognized a need for methodology and planning strategies to discover biosafety management so that it can be carried out as required through the RA of individual laboratories.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.51-66
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• 2006

This study was attempted to analyze risk factors and suggest accident prevention in live line works for power transmission lines to be developed and applied in Korea. Safety problem cannot but occur at development of live line works and application to the field. With respect to this, problems likely to occur in the field among works adopting methods of works including live line works for power transmission lines were investigated and analyzed through documentary survey and risk assessment method. The results are summarized as follows. A risk assessment method model was suggested. This method enables scientific and systematic development of safety control. That is, the owner may autonomously induce safety control and build risk assessment database by work process to use them as best training data for workers. Also, in the field, it may induce all workers to participate in safety program and secure safety by making workers seek for safety working method under smooth flow from looking at risk factors to accident prevention activities. It is deemed that this humble study will prevent both accident and injury likely to occur in live line works for power transmission lines.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 1998.10a
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• pp.379-379
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• 1998

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.50 no.8
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• pp.1217-1233
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• 2018

Following a surge of interest in multi-unit risk in the last few years, many recent studies have suggested methods for multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment (MUPSA) and addressed several related aspects. Most of the existing studies though focused on two-unit nuclear power plant (NPP) sites or used rather simplified probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models to demonstrate the proposed approaches. When considering an NPP site with three or more units, some approaches are inapplicable or yield very conservative results. Since the number of such sites is increasing, there is a strong need to develop and validate practical approaches to the related MUPSA. This article provides several detailed approaches that are applicable to multi-unit Level 1 PSA for sites with up to six or more reactor units. To validate the approaches, a multi-unit Level 1 PSA model is developed and the site core damage frequency is estimated for each of four representative multi-unit initiators, as well as for the case of a simultaneous occurrence of independent single-unit initiators in multiple units. For this purpose, an NPP site with six identical OPR-1000 units is considered, with full-scale Level 1 PSA models for a specific OPR-1000 plant used as the base single-unit models.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.110-120
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• 2023

Following the Fukushima accident, portable equipment employed as accident mitigating systems have been installed and operated to reduce core damage and large early release frequencies. In addition, the establishment of an accident management strategy has gained importance. This study investigated the current status of portable equipment including the international portable equipment FLEX (diverse and flexible coping strategies), and domestic portable equipment multi-barrier accident coping strategy (MACST). Research on optimal utilization of MACST remains insufficient. As a preliminary study for establishing an optimal strategy, sensitivity studies were conducted to facilitate the priority of use on portable equipment, number of portable equipment, and dependency of operator actions based on a multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment model. The results revealed the conditions that reduced the multi-unit and site conditional core damage probabilities, indicating the optimal strategy of MACST. The results of this study can be used as a reference for establishing an optimal strategy that utilizes domestic safety equipment in the future.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.655-671
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• 2021

This study analyzes the premium risk of insurers in Korea, which is expected to experience the fastest population aging in the world. Based on the Lee-Carter model, we generate 10,000 scenarios for the number of future survivors in the group of the 10,000 policyholders of life annuity. According to the result of simulation study, the probability of insurer's loss for both groups of male and female policyholders is very low. This result indicates that the premium risk of insurers is not as great as the insurer's concern. This study also suggests introduction of the longevity swap as an alternative to manage the premium risk for the insurer which sells life annuity products. The longevity swap allows insurers to hedge premium risk and reduce capital burden due to the premium risk inherent in life annuity. This study also shows through examples that the counterparty of swap deal may have excess profit in exchange for taking premium risk.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.83-91
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• 2020

The recent bridge construction projects is demanded more sophisticated risk management measures and loss forecasts to brace for risk losses from an increase in the trend of bridge construction. This study aims to analyze the risk factors that caused the loss of material in actual bridge construction and to develop a quantified predictive loss model, based on the past record of insurance payment by major domestic insurance companies for bridge construction projects. For the development of quantitative bridge construction loss model, the dependent variable was selected as the loss ratio, i.e., the ratio of insurance payout divided by the total project cost, while the independent variable adopted 1) Technical factors: superstructure type, foundation type, construction method, and bridge length 2) Natural hazards: typhoon and flood 3) Project information: construction period and total project cost. Among the selected independent variables, superstructure type, construction method, and project period were shown to affect the ratio of bridge construction losses. The results of this study can provide government agencies, bridge construction design and construction and insurance companies with the quantitative damage prediction and risk assessment services, using risk indicators and loss prediction functions derived from the findings of this study and can be used as a guideline for future basic bridge risk assessment development research.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.101-106
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• 2009

The unsafe act and unsafe condition is due to human error that experience 80% of safety accidents. Accordingly, one of the most important issues to reduce industrial accidents as a whole, is how to reduce the accident rate by the human error. Therefore, this paper describes the development of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model by ergonomics for reform of safety consciousness on the semiconductor industry. Unconsciousness, disregard, ignorance, recklessness, and stress among the human factors are selected for conscious reform. Finally, the QRA model is efficiently expected to contribute towards improving continuous self-safety and health and safety culture campaign in order to prevent industrial accidents.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.1179-1189
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• 2019

Cyber security evaluation is a series of processes that estimate the level of risk of assets and systems through asset analysis, threat analysis and vulnerability analysis and apply appropriate security measures. In order to prepare for increasing cyber attacks, systematic cyber security evaluation is required. Various indicators for measuring cyber security level such as CWSS and CVSS have been developed, but the quantitative method to apply appropriate security measures according to the risk priority through the standardized security evaluation result is insufficient. It is needed that an Scoring system taking into consideration the characteristics of the target assets, the applied environment, and the impact on the assets. In this paper, we propose a quantitative risk assessment model based on the analysis of existing cyber security scoring system and a method for quantification of assessment factors to apply to the established model. The level of qualitative attribute elements required for cyber security evaluation is expressed as a value through security requirement weight by AHP, threat influence, and vulnerability element applying probability. It is expected that the standardized cyber security evaluation system will be established by supplementing the limitations of the quantitative method of applying the statistical data through the proposed method.