Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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Feasibility assessment of longevity swap for the Korean life annuity market

  • Lee, Changsoo (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Soongsil University) ;
  • Hong, Jimin (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Soongsil University) ;
  • Kim, Seongmin (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Soongsil University)
  • Received : 2021.06.04
  • Accepted : 2021.09.22
  • Published : 2021.11.30
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Abstract

This study analyzes the premium risk of insurers in Korea, which is expected to experience the fastest population aging in the world. Based on the Lee-Carter model, we generate 10,000 scenarios for the number of future survivors in the group of the 10,000 policyholders of life annuity. According to the result of simulation study, the probability of insurer's loss for both groups of male and female policyholders is very low. This result indicates that the premium risk of insurers is not as great as the insurer's concern. This study also suggests introduction of the longevity swap as an alternative to manage the premium risk for the insurer which sells life annuity products. The longevity swap allows insurers to hedge premium risk and reduce capital burden due to the premium risk inherent in life annuity. This study also shows through examples that the counterparty of swap deal may have excess profit in exchange for taking premium risk.

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