• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk analysis and evaluation

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Improvement and evaluation of flood control safety utilizing a flood risk map - Yeong-Seomjin River Basin - (홍수위험지도를 활용한 치수안전도 방법 개선 및 평가 - 영·섬진강 유역중심으로 -)

  • Eo, Gyu;Lee, Sung Hyun;Lim In Gyu;Lee, Gyu Won;Kim, Ji Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.21-33
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    • 2024
  • Recently, the patterns of climate change-induced disasters have become more diverse and extensive. To develop an effective flood control plan, Korea has incorporated the concept of Potential Flood Damage (PFD) into the Long-Term Comprehensive Water Resources Plan to assess flood risk. However, concerns regarding the PFD have prompted numerous studies. Previous research primarily focused on modifying and augmenting the PFD index or introducing new indices. This study aims to enhance the existing flood control safety evaluation method by utilizing a flood risk map that incorporates risk indices, specifically focusing on the Yeong-Seomjin river basin. The study introduces three main evaluation approaches: risk and potential analysis, PFD and flood management level analysis, and flood control safety evaluation. The proposed improved evaluation method is expected to be instrumental in evaluating various flood control safety measures and formulating flood control plans.

A Study on Mass Media and Risk Perception: Application of Facilitated Group Modeling to Social Risks (대중매체의 영향과 위험인식 특성: 현대사회 기술위험에 대한 집단인지모델기법 적용)

  • Chung, Ik Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.124-131
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    • 2018
  • In consideration of limitations of the classic economic approach to risk evaluation and the psychometric analysis of risk perception, this study applies a facilitated modeling technique to a group of college students in Korea. In this group activities, researchers did not provide a pre-selected list of risk items. Instead, 35 participants had group discussions to generate 63 risk items, to rate their risk level and to evaluate their characteristics in terms of the level of knowledge and dreadfulness. This study also analyzes the influence of mass media, online news papers in particular, on risk perception by counting the number of news articles covering key word corresponding risk items generated. The results show that there are significant differences between the rank order of risk items generated by students and that of statistical or objective risk. Psychometric analyses find that the levels of knowledge and dreadfulness have meaningful correlations with risk level. A well known or a dreadful risk demonstrates a high level of risk. Correlation analyses of media coverage and the risk level also re-confirms strong positive relations. The larger number of news articles a risk issue was covered by, the higher level of risk it showed. It means that college students generated risk items on the basis of what they were exposed by media. The role of mass media in risk perception and the importance of risk communication in risk evaluation are underlined. Implications of research findings and future research are discussed as well.

A Study on Fire Risk Analysis & Indexing of Buildings (건축물의 화재위험의 분석과 지수화에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Eui-Soo;Yang, Kwang-Mo;Ha, Jeong-Ho;Kang, Kyung-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.93-104
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    • 2008
  • A successful fire risk assessment is depends on identification of risk, the analytical process of potential risk, on estimation of likelihood and the width and depth of consequence. Take the influence on enterprise into consideration, Fire risk assessment could carry out along the evaluation of the risk importance, the risk level and the risk acceptance. A large part of the limitation of choosing the risk assessment techniques impose restrictions on expense and time. If it is unnecessary high level risk assessment or Probabilistic Risk Assessment of buildings, in compliance with the Relative Ranking Method, Fire risk indexing and assessing is possible. As working-level technique, AHP method is useful with practical technique.

A Study on Quantitative Evaluation Method for Risk of Work-related Musculoskeletal Disorders Associated with Back Flexion Posture (작업관련성 근골격계질환에 있어서 작업자세 위험도의 정량적 평가방법에 대한 연구 -허리 굴곡 자세를 중심으로-)

  • Park, Dong Hyun;Noh, An Na;Choi, Seo Yeon
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 2014
  • This study tried to develop a basis for quantitative index of working postures associated with WMSDs (Work-related Musculoskeletal Disorders) that could overcome realistic restriction during application of typical checklists for WMSDs evaluation. The baseline data(for a total of 603 jbs) for this study was obtained from automobile manufacturing company. Specifically, data for back posture was analyzed in this study to have a better and more objective method in terms of job relevance than typical methods such as OWAS, RULA, and REBA. Major statistical tools were clustering, logistic regression and so on. The main results in this study could be summarized as follows; 1) The relationship between working posture and WMSDs symptom at back was statistically significant based on the results from logistic regression, 2) Based on clustering analysis, three levels for WMSDs risk at back were produced for flexion as follows: low risk(< $18.5^{\circ}$), medium risk($18.5^{\circ}{\sim}36.0^{\circ}$), high risk(> $36.0^{\circ}$), 3) The sensitivities on risk levels of back flexion was 93.8% while the specificities on risk levels of back flexion was 99.1%. The results showed that the data associated with back postures in this study could provide a good basis for job evaluation of WMSDs at back. Specifically, this evaluation methodology was different from the methods usually used at WMSDs study since it tried to be based on direct job relevance from real working situation. Further evaluation for other body parts as well as back would provide more stability and reliability in WMSDs evaluation study.

A Study on The Estimation of Accident Loss Prevention Cost and Risk Analysis in Subway Construction (지하철 건설현장 재해 분석 및 재해손실비용 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 최명기
    • Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.77-81
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    • 2001
  • The industrial accident in subway of late is increasingly coming to the front as a serious problem of society because a scale of industrial accident is a large size, and powerfulness, while the percent of accident is decreasing as a result of industrial facilities with the largeness of equipment, automation, and high horse-powering. In this paper, a study on the estimation of accident loss prevention cost and risk analysis in subway construction is proposed as an alternative to the techniques currently used in the general construction projects safety. Then the concept of risk evaluation using a risk assessment model is presented to drive value of risk and numerical example for risk analysis. A means for this does grasp the importance of educational factor by way of analyzing the causes of accident through statistical data of labor department, emphasizing the necessity and the importance of safety education, being helpful to act safety by decreasing insecure activity which ranks the majority of accident causes with putting the education program, form, method into practice that are suitable for a place of business.

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Evaluation on Risk at the Port of Mokpo and its Approaches based on Relative Importance of Risk Factors for Marine Traffic Environment (해상교통환경 위험요소의 상대적 중요도를 고려한 목포항 및 진입수로의 위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Hong-Hoon;Kim, Chol-Seong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.375-381
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    • 2013
  • To assess the risk of marine traffic environments, with high confidential level, the risk factors comprising it should be identified and the risk acceptance criteria should be also provided. Furthermore, the relative importance of each risk factor(the weight of each risk factor on total risk) should be analyzed because the risk is expressed as the sum of risk factors comprising it. The twenty kinds of risk factors and its assessment criteria were suggested for the domestic marine traffic environments by an examination of the existing risk assessment models on the previous studies. The relative importance of each risk factor was also analyzed through the questionnaire using analytic hierarchy process by the marine traffic experts on the same studies. Based on these previous studies, the risk was evaluated at the port of Mokpo and its approaches on this study. The port of Mokpo and its approaches were divided into four sectors for the comparative evaluation, the result of the comparative evaluation on four sectors showed that the risk of the Jeongdeung-hae passage is the highest due to higher risk level of some risk factors(water movements, complexities, tug boats, pilotage, VTS) than the other sectors. The result of this evaluation is in accord with the analysis results of the other studies using various qualitative or quantitative risk analysis methods at the same sea areas.

Extraction and Analysis of Construction Phase Risk Factors in High-rise Construction Project (초고층 건설공사 시공단계 리스크 요인 도출 및 분석)

  • Kim, Sooyong;Kim, Sunghyun;Yang, Jinkook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.90-98
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    • 2016
  • High-rise buildings construction project have various risk factors. Major risk factors are negative results such as time delay and increase of costs. Therefore, this study was analyzed risk factors in construction stages of high-rise buildings using by PROMETHEE technique. For this, this research were identified risk factors through experts Focus Group Interview(FGI). And, PROMETHEE was used to setup evaluation standard for analysis of high-rise building construction risks. Next, the standard of evaluation index calculation was composed by using the definition level in PDRI. Preference function and evaluation index were identified through questionnaires. Through these processes, this study has calculated the importance of high-rise building construction risks using by PROMETHEE technique. As a result, high degree risk factors were as following. These are 'Operation plan of material lifting', 'Outrigger & Belt Truss Construction', 'Foundation work plan of high-rise building' and 'Considering a Structure concept of high-rise building'.

Comparison of Disaster Vulnerability Analysis and Risk Evaluation of Heat Wave Disasters (폭염재해의 재해취약성분석 및 리스크 평가 비교)

  • Yu-Jeong SEOL;Ho-Yong KIM
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.132-144
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    • 2023
  • Recently, the frequency and intensity of heat waves due to the increase in climate change temperature are increasing. Therefore, this study tried to compare the evaluation process and evaluation results of the heat wave disaster evaluation, which is the government's analysis of the heat wave disaster vulnerability and the risk evaluation method recently emphasized by the IPCC. The analysis of climate change disaster vulnerability is evaluated based on manuals and guidelines prepared by the government. Risk evaluation can be evaluated as the product of the possibility of a disaster and its impact, and it is evaluated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation based on Bayesian estimation method, which uses prior information to infer posterior probability. As a result of the analysis, the two evaluation results for Busan Metropolitan City differed slightly in the spatial distribution of areas vulnerable to heat waves. In order to properly evaluate disaster vulnerable areas due to climate change, the process and results of climate change disaster vulnerability analysis and risk assessment must be reviewed, and consider each methodology and countermeasures must be prepared.

Suggestion of a Safety Evaluation Procedure to Improve Probiotic Safety (프로바이오틱스 안전성 문제 개선을 위한 안전성 평가방법의 제안)

  • Kim, Sejeong;Yoon, Yohan;Oh, Sejong
    • Journal of Dairy Science and Biotechnology
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.99-111
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    • 2020
  • Probiotics are actively being studied for their efficacious anticancer, anticholesterol, and antidiabetic properties. As novel probiotic strains are being developed continuously, new strain-specific safety issues may be reported. Therefore, a procedure for the safety evaluation of probiotic strains is needed. In this study, we investigated the current status of domestic and foreign guidelines for the evaluation of safety of probiotics and suggested a general probiotic safety evaluation process. In other countries, the guidelines for probiotic evaluation are provided and managed separately. However, in Korea, general guidelines are provided regarding the use of functional ingredients, and specific guidelines for the use of probiotics are lacking. A review step based on the characteristics of the probiotics has been introduced in the procedure for safety evaluation of probiotics. Additionally, it has been suggested that the safety evaluation process should consider the results of the functional and genomic analysis for strain identification. Moreover, the factors to be evaluated are presented separately for the notified and non-notified strains. The suggested evaluation procedure may ensure the safety of probiotics, thereby promoting enhanced utilization of probiotics as functional products.

Development of a Risk Analysis Assessment Models for the Construction Projects (건설공사의 위험도 분석평가 및 모델개발)

  • Lee, Jeong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.233-240
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    • 1999
  • Even though the recent construction safety disasters not only result in the loss inside construction sites but also become to a large public disasters, safety activities are managed in an irrational way and safety rules are ignored in the construction sites which leads to occur same type of disasters repeatedly. In this paper, a fuzzy set theoretic approach to risk analysis is proposed as an alternative to the techniques currently used in the general construction projects safety. Then the concept of risk evaluation using linguistic representation of the likelihood, exposure and consequences is introduced. A risk assessment model using approximate reasoning technique base on fuzzy logic is presented to drive fuzzy values of risk and numerical example for risk analysis is also presented to illustrate the results.

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