• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.1-9
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• 2005

The study shows the possible use of the index flood frequency curves for an estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged locations. Flood frequency analysis were made for the annual maximum flood data series at 9 available stations in the Han river basin. From the flood frquency curve at each station the mean annual flood of 2.33-year return period was determined and the ratios of the flood magnitude of various return period to the mean annual flood at each station were averaged throughout the Han river basin, resulting mean flood ratios of different return periods. A correlation analysis was made between the mean annual flood and physiographic parameters of the watersheds i.e, the watershed area and mean river channel slope, resulting an empirical multiple linear regression equation over the whole Han river basin. For unguaged watershed the flood of a specified return period could be estimated by multiplying the mead flood ratio corresponding the return period with the mean annual flood computed by the empirical formula developed in terms of the watershed area and river channel slope. To verify the applicability of the methodology developed in the present study the floods of various return periods determined for the watershed in the river channel improvement plan formulation by the Ministry of Construction and Transportation(MOCT) were compared with those estimated by the present method. The result proved a resonable agreement up to the watershed area of approximately 2,000k $m^2$. It is suggested that the practice of design flood estimation based on the rainfall-runoff analysis might have to be reevaluated because it involves too much uncertainties in the hydrologic data and rainfall-runoff model calibration.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.8-18
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• 2014

This study analyzes characteristics of flow using 3 dimensional numerical model, Delft3D, at the downstream of hydraulic structure. And fish shelters are suggested by analyzing them in flood time. A hydraulic structure changes flow conveyance, water depth and velocity affecting the activity of the fish. Flow depth decreases and velocity is fast near the left bank at the downstream of Gumi weir because of the concentration of flow due to it. Therefore, fish shelters are generated near the right bank of it. As a result of vertical velocity distribution which indicates the range of fish activity, maximum value are 0.0043 m/s in 30-year of return period of flood 0.0052 m/s in 50 year flood, 0.0046 m/s in 80-year of return period of flood, and 0.0039 m/s in 100-year of return period of flood. As the discharge increases, the areas of fish shelters decreases because depth and turbulent energy increase according to increases discharge. The estimated areas of fish shelters near the right bank decrease from 61.5% in 30-year of return period of flood to 39.0% 100-year of return period of flood. Therefore, the constructed hydraulic structures affect fish shelters.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.42 no.3
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• pp.299-309
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• 2022

This paper presents a new class of the vehicular live load factor for a reliability-based bridge design code. The significance of the current vehicular live load factor of 1.8 is investigated based on the return period of the vehicular live load and the design life of a bridge. It is shown that the current vehicular live load factor corresponds to a return period of 6.7 million years for a 100-year design life, which seems to be unrealistic in an engineering sense, and that the target reliability of 3.72 is set to too high without any reasoning for the gravitational load-governed limit state compared with that of the other limit states. In case the same return period as the design wind velocity or the ground acceleration is employed for the vehicular live load, the corresponding vehicular live load factor becomes around 1.15, and the target reliability index for the return period may be selected as 2.0 or 2.5 depending on the governing load effect. The complete sets of the load-resistance factors for the proposed target reliability indices are evaluated through optimization.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.63-74
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• 2018

Recently, in the asset management industry, the smart beta strategy, which has an intermediate nature between passive and active strategies, is attracting attention. In this smart beta strategy, value, momentum, low volatility, and quality index are widely used. In this study, we analyzed the quality index which is not clear and complicated to calculate. According to the MSCI methodology, the quality index was calculated using three variables: return on equity, debt to equity, and earnings variability. In addition, we use the index using only return on equity variable, the index using only two variables of return on equity and debt to equity, and the KOSPI index as comparison targets for the quality index. In order to evaluate the performance of the indices used in the analysis, the arithmetic mean return, the coefficient of variation, and the geometric mean return were used. In addition, Fama and French (1993) model, which is widely used in related studies, was used as a pricing model to test whether abnormal returns in each index are occurring. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, in all period analysis, quality index was the best in terms of holding period returns. Second, the quality index performed best in the currency crisis and the global financial crisis. Third, abnormal returns were not found in all indices before the global financial crisis. Fourth, in the period after the global financial crisis, the quality index has the highest abnormal return.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.11
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• pp.45-53
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• 2020

Past literatures have not studied the impact of real-world events or information on the return and volatility of virtual currencies, particularly on the COVID-19 event, day-of-the-week effect, daily high-low price spreads and information flow rate. The study uses the ARMA-GARCH model to capture Bitcoin's return and conditional volatility, and explores the impact of information flow rate on conditional volatility in the Bitcoin market based on the Mixture Distribution Hypothesis (Clark, 1973). There were 3,064 samples collected during the period from 1^st of January 2012 to 20^th April, 2020. Empirical results show that in the Bitcoin market, a daily high-low price spread has a significant inverse relationship for daily return, and information flow rate has a significant positive relationship for condition volatility. The study supports a significant negative relationship between information asymmetry and daily return, and there is a significant positive relationship between daily trading volume and condition volatility. When Bitcoin trades on Saturday & Sunday, there is a significant reverse relationship for conditional volatility and there exists a day-of-the-week volatility effect. Under the impact of COVID-19 event, Bitcoin's condition volatility has increased significantly, indicating the risk of price changes. Finally, the Bitcoin's return has no impact on COVID-19 events and holidays (Saturday & Sunday).

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.109-115
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• 2021

This study aims to examine the effect of Operating Costs and Income, Loan to Deposit Ratio on the Return on Asset (ROA) of Public-Private Foreign Exchange Banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the 2015-2018 period. This study is a quantitative study using financial reports of Public-Private Foreign Exchange Banks listed on the IDX as a data source. This study's population is 25 Public-Private Foreign Exchange Banks listed on the IDX. This study uses purposive sampling to determine the sample to produce 21 banking companies. Data was analyzed using multiple linear regression methods and descriptive statistics. The F Test calculation results state that all the variables of free operating expenses, operating income, and the loan to deposit ratio simultaneously and significantly affect the return on assets (ROA) variable in Public-Private Foreign Exchange Banks listed on the IDX. This study's results indicate that simultaneously Operational Costs, Operational Income, and Loan to Deposit Ratio have a significant effect on ROA. Operational Costs and Operational Income have a significant negative impact on Return on Assets. The third hypothesis shows that the Loan to Deposit Ratio has a positive and insignificant effect on Return on Assets.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.1079-1090
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• 2021

This study examines the influence of individual investors' sentiment on Japanese IPO aftermarket performance (measured by return and trading volume on the first trading day and return on the first trading year). This study proposes that IPOs will be, on average overpriced on the listing day when individual investors' sentiment is highly optimistic. Higher initial return and trading volume are expected in IPOs with higher investors' optimism. Further, the positive initial return will occur in the short term as individual investors usually are uninformed investors who demand shares based on their personal preferences, which will last only in a short period. Following the overvaluation hypothesis, price reversals should be predicted once the effect of individual investors' optimism has disappeared, causing the IPOs to underperform in the long term. Using 520 Japanese IPOs issued from January 2010 to December 2019, this study reveals that individual investors' sentiment is positively and significantly related to returns and trading volume on the first trading day. Return reversals are found on the first trading year despite the insignificant influence of individual investors' sentiment on IPO return on the first trading year.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.147-165
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• 2017

This study quantifies the dynamic interrelationship between the KOSPI index return and search query data derived from the Naver DataLab. The empirical estimation using a bivariate GARCH model reveals that negative contemporaneous correlations between the stock return and the search frequency prevail during the sample period. Meanwhile, the search frequency has a negative association with the one-week- ahead stock return but not vice versa. In addition to identifying dynamic correlations, the paper also aims to serve as a test bed in which the existence of profitable trading strategies based on big data is explored. Specifically, the strategy interpreting the heightened investor attention as a negative signal for future returns appears to have been superior to the benchmark strategy in terms of the expected utility over wealth. This paper also demonstrates that the big data-based option trading strategy might be able to beat the market under certain conditions. These results highlight the possibility of big data as a potential source-which has been left largely untapped-for establishing profitable trading strategies as well as developing insights on stock market dynamics.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.183-206
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• 2007

The price-dividend ratio is one of the most frequently used financial variables to predict long-horizon stock return. However, the persistency of the price-dividend ratio is found to cause the spuriousness of the stock return prediction regression. The stable relationship between the stock price and the dividend, however, seems to weaken after World War II and to experience structural break. In this paper, we identify a structural change in the cointegrating relationship between the log of the stock price and the log of the dividend. Confirming a structural break in 1962, we subdivide the sample and apply the fully modified estimator to correct for the nonstationarity of the regressor. With the subdivided sample, we exercise the nonparametric bootstrap procedure to derive the empirical distribution of the test statistics and fail to find return predictability in each subsample period.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.1-10
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• 2022

This research proposes a novel trading method based on sample entropy for the FTSE China A50 Index. The approach is used to determine the points at which the index should be bought and sold for various holding durations. The findings are then compared to three other trading strategies: buying and holding the index for the entire time period, using the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and using the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) as buying/selling signaling tools. The unique entropy trading method, which used 90-day holding periods and was called StEn(90), produced the highest cumulative return: 25.66 percent. Regular buy and hold, RSI, and MACD were all outperformed by this strategy. In fact, when applied to the same time periods, RSI and MACD had negative returns for the FTSE China A50 Index. Regular purchase and hold yielded a 6% positive return, whereas RSI yielded a 28.56 percent negative return and MACD yielded a 33.33 percent negative return.