• Title/Summary/Keyword: reliability theory

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On Some New Stochastic Orders of Interest in Reliability Theory

  • Kayid, M.;El-Bassiouny, A.H.;Al-Wasel, I.A.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.95-109
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this paper is to study new notions of stochastic comparisons and ageing classes based on the total time on test transform order. We give relationships to other stochastic orders and aging classes given previously. Several preservation properties under the reliability operations of random minima and series system are given.

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Simulation of Fuzzy Reliability Indexes

  • Dong, Yu-Ge;Chen, Xin-Zhao;Cho, Hyun-Deog;Kwon, Jong-Wan
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.492-500
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    • 2003
  • By means of the transformation from the problem of fuzzy reliability to the problem of general reliability, a model for analyzing fuzzy reliability is introduced in this paper Because of the complexity of the Problem of the fuzzy reliability, generally speaking, the analytical equations for calculating fuzzy reliability indexes of machine part cannot be obtained in most cases. Therefore, in this paper, an approach is given wherein progressions are employed to calculate them, or a simulation approach is used to estimate them by expressing general reliability indexes as progressions. By utilizing the approach put forwards in the paper, the calculating quantity for analyzing the fuzzy reliability will be reduced : even substantially reduced sometimes. Some examples are taken to explain the feasibility of the model and a simulation approach.

Reliability Analysis of Final Settlement Using Terzaghi's Consolidation Theory (테르자기 압밀이론을 이용한 최종압밀침하량에 관한 신뢰성 해석)

  • Chae, Jong Gil;Jung, Min Su
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6C
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    • pp.349-358
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    • 2008
  • In performing the reliability analysis for predicting the settlement with time of alluvial clay layer at Kobe airport, the uncertainties of geotechnical properties were examined based on the stochastic and probabilistic theory. By using Terzaghi's consolidation theory as the objective function, the failure probability was normalized based on AFOSM method. As the result of reliability analysis, the occurrence probabilities for the cases of the target settlement of ${\pm}10%,\;{\pm}25%$ of the total settlement from the deterministic analysis were 30~50%, 60%~90%, respectively. Considering that the variation coefficients of input variable are almost similar as those of past researches, the acceptable error range of the total settlement would be expected in the range of 10% of the predicted total settlement. As the result of sensitivity analysis, the factors which affect significantly on the settlement analysis were the uncertainties of the compression coefficient Cc, the pre-consolidation stress Pc, and the prediction model employed. Accordingly, it is very important for the reliable prediction with high reliability to obtain reliable soil properties such as Cc and Pc by performing laboratory tests in which the in-situ stress and strain conditions are properly simulated.

Development of accelerated life test method for the wind turbine Gearbox using cumulative damage theory (누적손상이론을 이용한 풍력증속기의 가속수명시험법 개발)

  • Son, Ki-Su;Kwak, Hee-Sung;Kang, Change-Hoon;Cho, Jun-Haeng
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.693-697
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    • 2005
  • This study was performed to develop accelerated life test method of the wind-turbine gearbox using accumulated damage theory that used to model the fatigue of parts that receive variable load. The accumulated damage theory was introduced, and the estimation of life and calculation of accelerated life test time was illustrated. As the actual application example, accelerated life test method of the gearbox was described. Life distribution of the wind-turbine gearbox was supposed to follow Weibull distribution and life test time was calculated under the conditions of average life (MTBF) 140,600 hours and 99% reliability for one test sample According to the accumulated damage theory, because test time can shorten in case increase test load, test time could be reduced by 1.2 years when we put the load 1.2 times of rated load than 0.93 times of rated load that is equivalent load calculated by load spectrum of the wind turbine. This time, acceleration coefficient was 21.3. This accelerated test method was used to develop accelerated test method of gear reducer, gear and bearing as well as the industrial gearbox and it is considered to be applied comprehensively to mechanical parts the fatigue of which is happened by load or pressure etc.

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Decision-making Method of Optimum Inspection Interval for Plant Maintenance by Genetic Algorithms (유전 알고리즘에 의한 플랜트 보전을 위한 최적검사기간 결정 방법론)

  • 서광규;서지한
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2003
  • The operation and management of a plant require proper accounting for the constraints coming from reliability requirements as well as from budget and resource considerations. Most of the mathematical methods to decide the inspection time interval for plant maintenance by reliability theory are too complicated to be solved. Moreover, the mathematical and theoretical models are not usually cases in the practical applications. In order to overcome these problems, we propose a new the decision-making method of optimal inspection interval to minimize the maintenance cost by reliability theory and genetic algorithm (GA). The most merit of the proposed method is to decide the inspection interval for a plant machine of which failure rate $\lambda$(t) conforms to any probability distribution. Therefore, this method is more practical. The efficiency of the proposed method is verified by comparing the results obtained by GA-based method with the inspection model haying regular time interval.

Throughput-Reliability Tradeoff in Decode-and-Forward Cooperative Relay Channels: A Network Information Theory Approach

  • Li, Jun;Chen, Wen
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.445-454
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    • 2009
  • Cooperative transmission protocols are always designed to achieve the largest diversity gain and the network capacity simultaneously. The concept of diversity-multiplexing tradeoff (DMT) in multiple input multiple output (MIMO) systems has been extended to this field. However, DMT constrains a better understanding of the asymptotic interplay between transmission rate, outage probability (OP) and signal-to-noise ratio. Another formulation called the throughput-reliability tradeoff (TRT) was then proposed to avoid such a limitation. By this new rule, Azarian and Gamal well elucidated the asymptotic trends exhibited by the OP curves in block-fading MIMO channels. Meanwhile they doubted whether the new rule can be used in more general channels and protocols. In this paper, we will prove that it does hold true in decode-and-forward cooperative protocols. We deduce the theoretic OP curves predicted by TRT and demonstrate by simulations that the OP curves will asymptotically overlap with the theoretic curves predicted by TRT.

Reliability and Safety Analysis of Structure System of Retaining Walls (옹벽구조시스템의 신뢰성 및 안전도 해석)

  • Jung, Chul-Won;Yun, Boung-Jo
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.223-234
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    • 1998
  • In this study, an attempt is made to apply the concept of fuzzy-bayesian theory to the integrity assessment of structure system, and uncertainty states are represented in terms of fuzzy sets which define several linguistic variables such as "very good", "good", "average", "poor", "very poor", etc. Especially, the concept of fuzzy conditional probability aids to derive a new reliability analysis which includes the subjective assessment of engineers without introducing any additional correction factors. The fuzzy concept are also used as reliability indexes for the condition assessment based on the proposed models, the proposed fuzzy theory-based approach with the results of PEM and AFOSM are applied to retaining wall.

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Reliability-based fragility analysis of nonlinear structures under the actions of random earthquake loads

  • Salimi, Mohammad-Rashid;Yazdani, Azad
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.66 no.1
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    • pp.75-84
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    • 2018
  • This study presents the reliability-based analysis of nonlinear structures using the analytical fragility curves excited by random earthquake loads. The stochastic method of ground motion simulation is combined with the random vibration theory to compute structural failure probability. The formulation of structural failure probability using random vibration theory, based on only the frequency information of the excitation, provides an important basis for structural analysis in places where there is a lack of sufficient recorded ground motions. The importance of frequency content of ground motions on probability of structural failure is studied for different levels of the nonlinear behavior of structures. The set of simulated ground motion for this study is based on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. It is demonstrated that the scenario events identified by the seismic risk differ from those obtained by the disaggregation of seismic hazard. The validity of the presented procedure is evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulation.

An efficient vibration control strategy for reliability enhancement of HAWT blade

  • Sajeer, M. Mohamed;Chakraborty, Arunasis;Das, Sourav
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.703-720
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    • 2020
  • This paper investigates the safety of the wind turbine blade against excessive deformation. For this purpose, the performance of the blade in the along-wind direction is improved by longitudinal stiffener made of shape memory alloy. The rationale behind the selection of this smart material is due to its ability to offer excellent thermo-mechanical behaviour at low strain. Here, Liang-Roger model is adopted for vibration control, and the super-elastic effects are utilised for blade stiffening. Turbulent wind fields are generated at the hub height using TurbSim and the corresponding loads are evaluated using blade element momentum theory. An efficient switching algorithm is developed along with performance curves that enable the designer to select an optimal mode of heating depending upon the operational scenario. Numerical results presented in this paper clearly demonstrate the performance envelope of the proposed stiffener and its influence on the reliability of the blade.

Reliability analysis of shallow tunnel with surface settlement

  • Yang, X.L.;Li, W.T.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.313-326
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    • 2017
  • Based on the reliability theory and limit analysis method, the roof stability of a shallow tunnel is investigated under the condition of surface settlement. Nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion is adopted in the present analysis. With the consideration of surface settlement, the internal energy and external work are calculated. Equating the rate of energy dissipation to the external rate of work, the expression of support pressure is derived. With the help of variational approach, a performance function is proposed to reliability analysis. Improved response surface method is used to calculate the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and the failure probability. In order to assess the validity of the present results, Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to examine the correctness. Sensitivity analysis is used to estimate the influence of different variables on reliability index. Among random variables, the unit weight significantly affects the reliability index. It is found that the greater coefficient of variation of variables lead to the higher failure probability. On the basis of the discussions, the reliability-based design is achieved to calculate the required tunnel support pressure under different situations when the target reliability index is obtained.