• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.95-101
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• 2017

Reliability is the priority matter in guided weapon systems. The reliability prediction data is used during the devel opment stage as the manufacturing cost is very high and the production quantity if quite limited. At the same time it takes relatively a long period of time to acquire a reliable operation data set after deployment such that in order t o determine the operational reliability, weapons must be tested and analyzed in real operating environments. For the research, the life distributions were estimated by using actual operation data and the reliability was calculated by ap plying the method of least squares and maximum likelihood estimation. Also, the comparisons were made between pr edicted reliability and actual operational reliability. As a result, the actual reliability of each system was higher than predicted reliability and it was considered that such a difference was caused by the fact that the application of the l atest designing technology and improved parts to the guided weapon systems was not reflected on the estimation of predicted reliability. It was possible to confirm the actual operational reliability of domestic (ROK) guided weapon sy stems through this research and the methods used here will contribute to the reliability analyses for the future guide d weapon systems to be developed.

• Proceedings of the Korean Fiber Society Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.201-202
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• 2007

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2006.10a
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• pp.637-638
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• 2006

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.565-578
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• 2016

A probabilistic based systems approach is addressed in this study for the reliability prediction of solid rocket motors (SRM). To achieve this goal, quantitative Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) approach is employed to determine the reliability of components, which are integrated into the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to obtain the system reliability. The quantitative FMECA is implemented by burden and capability approach when they are available. Otherwise, the semi-quantitative FMECA is taken using the failure rate handbook. Among the many failure modes in the SRM, four most important problems are chosen to illustrate the burden and capability approach, which are the rupture, fracture of the case, and leak due to the jointed bolt and O-ring seal failure. Four algorithms are employed to determine the failure probability of these problems, and compared with those by the Monte Carlo Simulation as well as the commercial code NESSUS for verification. Overall, the study offers a comprehensive treatment of the reliability practice for the SRM development, and may be useful across the wide range of propulsion systems in the aerospace community.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.46-56
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• 2012

The purpose of virtual metrology (VM) in semiconductor manufacturing is to predict every wafer's metrological values based on its process equipment data without an actual metrology. In this paper, we propose novelty detection-based reliability estimation models for VM in order to support flexible utilization of VM results. Because the proposed model can not only estimate the reliability of VM, but also identify suspicious process variables lowering the reliability, quality control actions can be taken selectively based on the reliance level and its causes. Based on the preliminary experimental results with actual semiconductor manufacturing process data, our models can successfully give a high reliance level to the wafers with small prediction errors and a low reliance level to the wafers with large prediction errors. In addition, our proposed model can give more detailed information by identifying the critical process variables and their relative impacts on the low reliability.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2012

The quality of a part has directly effect on part reliability. In the basis of MIL-HDBK-217F model, it is the determined rule that part's quality level should follow its nominal one written in its specification. If quality information is unknown, quality level of the part should be determined as 'Lower'. However, the prediction model is said to be short in reflecting parts applying 'state-of-the-art' technology and result in over-estimated failure rate by some reliability-related authorities or research institutes. In this study, the reliability prediction results by the model of MIL-HDBK-217F and Telcordia SR-332 are compared and analyzed to verify whether the statement is reasonable or not.

• Atmosphere
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.235-249
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• 2017

This paper describes methodology verifying near-surface predictability of numerical weather prediction models against the surface synoptic weather station network (SYNOP) observation. As verification variables, temperature, wind, humidity-related variables, total cloud cover, and surface pressure are included in this tool. Quality controlled SYNOP observation through the pre-processing for data assimilation is used. To consider the difference of topographic height between observation and model grid points, vertical inter/extrapolation is applied for temperature, humidity, and surface pressure verification. This verification algorithm is applied for verifying medium-range forecasts by a global forecasting model developed by Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems to measure the near-surface predictability of the model and to evaluate the capability of the developed verification tool. It is found that the verification of near-surface prediction against SYNOP observation shows consistency with verification of upper atmosphere against global radiosonde observation, suggesting reliability of those data and demonstrating importance of verification against in-situ measurement as well. Although verifying modeled total cloud cover with observation might have limitation due to the different definition between the model and observation, it is also capable to diagnose the relative bias of model predictability such as a regional reliability and diurnal evolution of the bias.

• Journal of KIISE
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• v.42 no.12
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• pp.1551-1560
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• 2015

Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGMs) are used to quantitatively evaluate software reliability and to determine the software release date or additional testing efforts using software failure data. Because a single SRGM is not universally applicable to all kinds of software, the selection of an optimal SRGM suitable to a specific case has been an important issue. The existing methods for SRGM selection assess the goodness-of-fit of the SRGM in terms of the collected failure data but do not consider the accuracy of future failure predictions. In this paper, we propose a method for selecting SRGMs using the trend of failure data and failure prediction ability. To justify our approach, we identify problems associated with the existing SRGM selection methods through experiments and show that our method for selecting SRGMs is superior to the existing methods with respect to the accuracy of future failure prediction.

• Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.21-28
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• 2024

In light of the rapid development of the space industry, there has been increased attention on small satellites. These satellites rely on components that are considered to have lower reliability compared to larger-scale satellites. As a result, predicting reliability becomes even more crucial in this context. Therefore, this study aims to compare three reliability prediction techniques: MIL-HDBK-217F, RiAC-HDBK-217Plus, and FIDES. The goal is to determine a suitable reliability standard specifically for nano-satellites. Furthermore, we have refined the quality assurance factors of the manufacturing company. These factors have been adjusted to be applicable across various industrial sectors, with a particular focus on the selected FIDES prediction standard. This approach ensures that the scoring system accurately reflects the suitability for the aerospace industry. Finally, by implementing this refined system, we confirm the impact of the manufacturer's quality assurance level on the total failure rate.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.131-139
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• 1993

The newly proposed model of the future reliability results in earlier fault-fixes having a greater effect than the fault which make the greatest contribution to the overall failure rate tend to show themselves earlier, and so are fixed earlier. The suggested model allows a variety of reliability measures to be calculated. Predictions of total execution time(debugging time) is to achieve a target reliability. This model could also apply to computer-hardware reliability growth resulting from the elimination of design error and fault.