• 제목/요약/키워드: reliability prediction

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철도신호제어용 소프트웨어의 신뢰도 모델링에 관한 연구 (A Reliability Modeling of Software for Railway Signalling Systems)

  • 이재호;신덕호;장선봉;안병구;지인호
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2006년도 춘계학술대회 논문집 전기기기 및 에너지변환시스템부문
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    • pp.319-322
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    • 2006
  • 안전필수시스템인 철도신호제어 시스템의 신뢰성은 하드웨어와 소프트웨어의 신뢰도에 의해서 결정된다. 하드웨어의 신뢰도는 상대적으로 많은 연구와 환경적 시험을 통하여 비교적 용이하게 예측하고 입증할수 있으나, 소프트웨어의 신뢰도는 반복실험결과에 의해서 추정해야 하므로, 입력 값에 따라서 신뢰도 추정치가 종속된다. 소프트웨어의 입력과 출력의 조합은 거의 Combinatoric으로 되기 때문 모든 경우를 시험하기는 블가능하다. 따라서 단순화된 방법에 의해서 소프트웨어의 신뢰도를 구하는 것이 중요한 문제로 부각되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 소프트웨어의 신뢰도를 예측하는 신뢰도 예측방정식(Reliability Prediction Equation)을 도출하여 신호제어시스템 소프트웨어에 대한 신뢰도 모델링을 수행하고자 한다.

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GFRP 복합구조의 피로신뢰성 해석모형에 관한 연구 (Fatigue Reliability Analysis Model for GFRP Composite Structures)

  • 조효남;신재철;이승재
    • 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산구조공학회 1991년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.29-32
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    • 1991
  • It is well known that the fatigue damage process in composite materials is very complicated due to complex failure mechanisms that comprise debounding, matrix cracking, delamination and fiber splitting of laminates. Therefore, the residual strength, instead of a single dominant crack length, is chosen to describe the criticality of the damage accumulated in the sublaminate. In this study, two models for residual strength degradation established by Yang-Liu and Tanimoto-Ishikawa that are capable of predicting the statistical distribution of both fatigue life and residual strength have been investigated and compared. Statistical methodologies for fatigue life prediction of composite materials have frequently been adopted. However, these are usually based on a simplified probabilistic approach considering only the variation of fatigue test data. The main object of this work is to propose a fatigue reliability analysis model which accounts for the effect of all sources of variation such as fabrication and workmanship, error in the fatigue model, load itself, etc. The proposed model is examined using the previous experimental data of GFRP and it is shown that it can be practically applied for fatigue problems in composite materials.

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비내진 상세를 가지 10층 R.C. 골조의 비선형 거동에 대한 실험과 해석의 상관성 연구 (Correlation of the Experimental and Analytical Inelastic Response of a 1/12-Scale 10-Story Reinforced Concrete Frame with Nonseismic Detail)

  • 이한선;강귀용;김정우
    • 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국콘크리트학회 1998년도 가을 학술발표논문집(II)
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    • pp.535-540
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    • 1998
  • Nowadays, the pushover analysis technique is becoming a very useful tool for the prediction of inelastic behavior of structures in the seismic evaluation of existing buildings in the worldwide. However, the reliability of this analysis method has not been fully checked by the test results. The objective of this study is to verify the correlation between the experimental and analytical response of a high-rise nonseismic reinforced concrete frame using DRAIN-2DX program and the test results performed previously. This study concludes that the overall responses such as story-shear versus story-drift can be predicted with quite high reliability while the local deformations such as plastic rotations in the ends of critical members can not be described reasonably.

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10층 조적채움 R.C. 골조의 비선형 거동에 대한 해석과 실험의 상관성 연구 (Corelation of Experimental and Analytical Response of a 1:12 Scale 10-Story Masonry-Infilled R.C. Frame)

  • 이한선;김정우;김상호
    • 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국콘크리트학회 1999년도 학회창립 10주년 기념 1999년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.487-490
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    • 1999
  • Nowadays, the pushover analysis technique is becoming a very useful tool for the prediction of inelastic behavior of structures in the seismic evaluation of existing buildings in the world. However, the reliability of this analysis method has not been fully checked by the test results. The objective of this study is to verify the correlation between the analytical and experimental response of a high-rise masonry infilled reinforced concrete frame using DRAIN-2DX program and the test results performed previously. This study concludes that the strength and stiffness of members can be predicted with quite high reliability while the ductility capacity of members can not be described reasonably.

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지반침하가 매설배관의 건전성에 미치는 영향 (Effect of Ground Subsidence on Reliability of Buried Pipelines)

  • 이억섭;김동혁
    • 한국정밀공학회지
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    • 제21권1호
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    • pp.173-180
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    • 2004
  • This paper presents the effect of varying boundary conditions such as ground subsidence, internal pressure and temperature variation for buried pipelines on failure prediction by using a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function incorporating with von-Mises failure criteria is used in order to estimate the probability of failure mainly associated with three cases of ground subsidence. Using stresses on the buried pipelines, we estimate the probability of pipelines with von-Mises failure criterion. The effects of varying random variables such as pipe diameter, internal pressure, temperature, settlement width, load for unit length of pipelines, material yield stress and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically studied by using a failure probability model for the pipeline crossing ground subsidence regions which have different soil properties.

Human Reliability Analysis in Wolsong 2/3/4 Nuclear Power Plants Probabilistic Safety Assessment

  • Kang, Dae-Il;Yang, Joon-Eon;Hwang, Mee-Jung;Jin, Young-Ho;Kim, Myeong-Ki
    • 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국원자력학회 1997년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(1)
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    • pp.611-616
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    • 1997
  • The Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) for Wolsong(WS) 2/3/4 nuclear power plant(NPPs) in design stage is performed using the methodologies being equivalent to PWR PSA. Accident sequence evaluation program(ASEP) human reliability analysis(HRA) procedure and technique for human error rate prediction(THERP) are used in HRA of WS 2/3/4 NPPs PSA. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the procedure and methodology of HRA in WS 2/3/4 NPPs PSA. Also, this paper describes the interim results of importance analysis for human actions modeled in WS 2/3/4 PSA and the findings and recommendations of administrative control of secondary control area from the view of human factors.

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가스켓용 고무소재의 특성수명 예측 (Prediction of Characteristics Life of the Rubber Gasket)

  • 박준형;이세희;장현덕;김광섭;양정삼
    • 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.213-235
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we carried out an accelerated degradation test that is commonly used to predict characteristics life of rubber gaskets for a pole transformer. The potential failure mode applied for the test is rubber elongation and the corresponding failure mechanism is heat. From the result, we found that Weibull distribution is the fatigue life distribution in NBR and H-NBR. After estimating characteristics life in commonly used temperature, the average life span of $B_{50}$ in NBR is 7.7 years under $50^{\circ}C$ and the life span in H-NBR is 28 years.

드럼 세탁기 Spider의 피로수명 신뢰성 평가에 대한 연구 (A Study on Reliability Estimation for Fatigue Life of the Spider from a Drum Washing Machine)

  • 이성민;조상봉;조성진;김영수;강동우;정연수;정보선
    • 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정밀공학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.46-49
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    • 2004
  • The spider of a drum washing machine receives the repeated fatigue loadings during laundering. Although the spider is designed statically safely, it often happens fatigue failure. Therefore it requires the safe design for fatigue and needs the prediction of quantitative fatigue life. The S-N diagram for a spider material is developed by fatigue test and statistical analysis. The stresses are measured directly from strain gages on the spider. To predict the fatigue life of spider, the rainflow counting method and Miner's rule are used. The data for fatigue life are analyzed statistically. From these data, reliability estimation for fatigue life can be done and also, equivalent fatigue life can be obtained. It will be applied to make and improve to a short period for design and prototype test.

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상온 대기 중에서 인코넬 600과 690의 슬라이딩 마모 (Sliding wear of Inconel 600 and 690 in room temperature air)

  • 홍동석;김경국;김준기;김선진
    • 한국재료학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국재료학회 2003년도 추계학술발표강연 및 논문개요집
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    • pp.91-91
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    • 2003
  • Sliding wear behaviors of Inconel 600 and 690 were investigated at room temperature in air. In the present study, Archard's equation which has low reliability was modified. In the prediction of wear volume by Archard's equation, the reliabilities of Inconel 600 and 690 were about from 26.3% to 45.7% and from 69. l% to 88.6%, respectively, The sliding wear behaviors of Inconel 600 and 690 turned out to be influenced by their stacking fault energy, and the fact was confirmed by using TEM and micro-hardness test Based on experimental results, the wear coefficient was modified as a function of the sliding distance. The calculation with the modified wear equation showed that the reliability of Inconel 600 tested with 409 ferritic stainless steel increased from 45.7% to 93.4%.

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Prediction of Planning Time in Busan Ports-Connected Expressways

  • Kim, Tae-Gon
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제40권2호
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    • pp.51-56
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    • 2016
  • Expressways mean the primary arterial highways with a high level of efficiency and safety. However, Gyeongbu and Namhae expressways connected with Busan ports are showing travel time delay by increased traffic including the medium/large-sized vehicles of about 20% compared to those of about 13% regardless of the peak periods. This study, thus, intends to analyze lane traffic characteristics in the basic 8-lane segments of the above-mentioned expressways, compute the planning and buffer times based on travel time reliability, find the lane speed showing a higher correlation with planning time between the lane speeds in the basic 8-lane segments, and finally suggest a correlation model for predicting the planning time in expressways.