• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.183-190
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• 2003

Rail breaks and derailments can cause a huge loss to rail players due to loss of service, revenue, property or even life. Maintenance has huge impact on reliability and safety of railroads. It is important to identify factors behind rail degradation and their risks associated with rail breaks and derailments. Development of mathematical models is essential for prediction and prevention of risks due to rail and wheel set damages, rail breaks and derailments. This paper addresses identification of hazard modes, estimation of probability of those hazards under operating, curve and environmental condition, probability of detection of potential hazards before happening and severity of those hazards for informed strategic decisions. Emphasis is put on optimal maintenance and operational decisions. Real life data is used for illustration.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권11호
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• pp.3675-3684
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• 2021

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a proactive approach to model and evaluate human systematic errors, and has been extensively applied in various complicated systems. Dependence assessment among human errors plays a key role in the HRA, which relies heavily on the knowledge and experience of experts in real-world cases. Moreover, there are ofthen different types of uncertainty when experts use linguistic labels to evaluate the dependencies between human failure events. In this context, this paper aims to develop a new method based on linguistic hesitant fuzzy sets and the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) technique to manage the dependence in HRA. This method handles the linguistic assessments given by experts according to the linguistic hesitant fuzzy sets, determines the weights of influential factors by an extended best-worst method, and confirms the degree of dependence between successive actions based on the THERP method. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of the presented linguistic hesitant fuzzy THERP method are demonstrated through an empirical healthcare dependence analysis.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.225-230
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• 2017

To generate mechanical movements in one-shot devices such as missiles and space launch vehicles, pyrotechnic mechanical device(PMD) such as pin pullers using pyrotechnic charge has been widely used. Reliability prediction of pin pullers is crucial to successfully execute target missions for the one-shot devices. Because the pin pullers require destructive tests to evaluate their reliability, one would need about 3,000 samples of success to guarantee a reliability of 99.9 % with a confidence level of 95 %. This paper suggests the application of a probit model using the charge amount as a functional parameter for estimation of functional reliability of pin puller. To guarantee target reliability, we propose estimation methods of the lower bound of functional reliability by applying the probit model. Given lower bound of functional reliability, we quantitatively show that the optimum amount of charge increases as the number of samples decreases. Along with a variety of simulations the validity of our new model via real test results is confirmed.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.56-67
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• 2006

위성개발 시 비용의 절감과 효율적인 설계 보장을 위해 신뢰성과 고장모드 분석이 필요하지만, COTS 소자를 사용하는 소형위성의 경우 통상 제작자로부터 소자에 대한 실패율이 제공되지 않기 때문에 신뢰성 계산이 어렵다. 이 논문에서는 실패율 예측을 위해 MIL-HDBK-217F의 시험적/경험적 데이터에 기초한 방법을 사용하였고, MIL-HDBK -217F에서 고려되지 않은 방사능 환경을 실패율 예측에 반영하기 위해 방사능 효과들 중 신뢰도에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 $10^-9$failures/device/$10^6$hours 이상의 발생확률을 갖는 SEL 발생확률을 실패율 예측 결과에 추가로 반영하였다. 결국 본 논문은 실패율이 제공되지 않는 COTS 소자를 사용하는 저가 소형위성에 대해 통계적 기법을 이용한 새로운 신뢰성 해석 방법을 제안하고, 현재 개발 중인 25kg급의 초소형위성인 HAUSAT-2에 이 방법을 적용하여 분석한 결과를 보여준다.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.305-313
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• 2015

Purpose: This study was performed to predict the fatigue life of a crank-type rotavator operated in domestic soil conditions using Recurdyn$^{(R)}$, a dynamic analysis program. Methods: Torque on the PTO shaft was measured using experiments conducted on the uplands and paddy fields in Korea. On the basis of the experimental and analytical results, the fatigue life of the crank-type rotavator was predicted by constructing an S-N curve according to the GL (Germanischer Lloyd Wind Energie GmbH) guideline. Results: The torques experienced by the PTO shaft in the paddy soil and the uplands were in the range of 472~797 N m and 313~430 N m, respectively, for every condition. In case of load condition, the peak torques (846 N m, 770 N m) were applied for severe conditions, resulting in a maximum (von Mises) stress of 75 MPa at the crank arm. The fatigue life of the crank-type rotavator was predicted to be 1,167 h that satisfies the target value of 1,110 h, by substituting the analysis results into an S-N curve of crank arm. Conclusions: The fatigue life of the crank-type rotavator was within the target life for the studied soil conditions; however, further field experiments for various soil conditions would be required to verify the prediction results.

• 한국정보처리학회논문지
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• 제5권9호
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• pp.2345-2352
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• 1998

최근에 개발되어 성공적으로 적용되고 있는 초기하분포 소프트웨어 신뢰성 성장 모델의 모수는 최우추정법으로 추정하기가 쉽지 않으므로주로 최소자승법으로 추정하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 먼저 기존의 최소자승법에서 사용된 최소화 기준을 비교한 다음, 새로 발견되는 결함수의 분산이 일정하지 않음을 고려한 가중최소자승법을 제안한다. 그리고 두 개의 실제 자료를 분석하여 가중최소자승법이 적합함을 보인다. 마지막으로 임의의 테스팅 시점에서 추가 시험에 의해 발견된 새로운 결함수를 예측하는 방법을 제안한다. 이 예측 방법은 테스팅을 중단하는 시점을 결정할 때 이용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.98-103
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• 2016

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to get a meaningful information for improving manufacturing quality of the products before they are produced in client's manufacturing process. Methods: A variety of data mining techniques have been being used for wide range of industries from process data in manufacturing factories for quality improvement. One application of those is to get meaningful information from process data in manufacturing factories for quality improvement. In this paper, the failure rate at client's manufacturing process is predicted by using the parameters of the characteristics of the product based on PCA (Principle Component Analysis) and regression analysis. Results: Through a case study, we proposed the predicting methodology and regression model. The proposed model is verified through comparing the failure rates of actual data and the estimated value. Conclusion: This study can provide the guidance for predicting the failure rate on the manufacturing process. And the manufacturers can prevent the defects by confirming the factor which affects the failure rate.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.635-642
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• 2009

This paper describes the Flight Dynamics Automation (FDA) system for COMS Flight Dynamics System (FDS) and its test result in terms of the performance of the automation jobs. FDA controls the flight dynamics functions such as orbit determination, orbit prediction, event prediction, and fuel accounting. The designed FDA is independent from the specific characteristics which are defined by spacecraft manufacturer or specific satellite missions. Therefore, FDA could easily links its autonomous job control functions to any satellite mission control system with some interface modification. By adding autonomous system along with flight dynamics system, it decreases the operator's tedious and repeated jobs but increase the usability and reliability of the system. Therefore, FDA is used to improve the completeness of whole mission control system's quality. The FDA is applied to the real flight dynamics system of a geostationary satellite, COMS and the experimental test is performed. The experimental result shows the stability and reliability of the mission control operations through the automatic job control.

• 대한인간공학회지
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.41-53
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• 1999

More than twenty HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) methodologies have been developed and used for the safety analysis in nuclear field during the past two decades. However, no methodology appears to have universally been accepted, as various limitations have been raised for more widely used ones. One of the most important limitations of conventional HRA is insufficient analysis of the task structure and problem space. To resolve this problem, we suggest a framework of informational analysis for HRA. The proposed informational analysis consists of three parts. The first part is the scenario analysis that investigates the contextual information related to the given task on the basis of selected scenarios. The second is the goals-means analysis to define the relations between the cognitive goal and task steps. The third is the cognitive function analysis that identifies the cognitive patterns and information flows involved in the task. Through the three-part analysis. systematic investigation is made possible from the macroscopic information on the tasks to the microscopic information on the specific cognitive processes. It is expected that analysts can attain a structured set of information that helps to predict the types and possibility of human error in the given task.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2008년도 추계학술대회A
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• pp.1355-1360
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• 2008

Stainless steel sheets are widely used as the structure material for the railroad cars and the commercial vehicles. These kinds structures used stainless steel sheets are commonly fabricated by using the gas welding. Gas welding is very important and useful technology in fabrication of an railroad car and vehicles structure. However fatigue strength of the gas welded joints is considerably lower than parent metal due to stress concentration at the weldment, fatigue strength evaluation of gas welded joints are very important to evaluate the reliability and durability of railroad cars and to establish a criterion of long life fatigue design. In this paper, ${\Delta}P-N_f$ curve were obtained by fatigue tests. Using these results, the accelerated life test (ALT) is conducted. From the experimental results, an acceleration model is derived and acceleration factors are estimated. So it is intended to obtain the useful information for the fatigue lifetime of plug and ring gas welded joints and data analysis by statistic reliability method, to save time and cost, and to develop optimum accelerated life prediction plans.