• Title/Summary/Keyword: reliability prediction

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Probabilistic ultimate strength analysis of submarine pressure hulls

  • Cerik, Burak Can;Shin, Hyun-Kyoung;Cho, Sang-Rai
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.101-115
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    • 2013
  • This paper examines the application of structural reliability analysis to submarine pressure hulls to clarify the merits of probabilistic approach in respect thereof. Ultimate strength prediction methods which take the inelastic behavior of ring-stiffened cylindrical shells and hemi-spherical shells into account are reviewed. The modeling uncertainties in terms of bias and coefficient of variation for failure prediction methods in current design guidelines are defined by evaluating the compiled experimental data. A simple ultimate strength formulation for ring-stiffened cylinders taking into account the interaction between local and global failure modes and an ultimate strength formula for hemispherical shells which have better accuracy and reliability than current design codes are taken as basis for reliability analysis. The effects of randomness of geometrical and material properties on failure are assessed by a prelimnary study on reference models. By evaluation of sensitivity factors important variables are determined and comparesons are made with conclusions of previous reliability studies.

Reliability Evaluation of an Oil Cooler for a High-Precision Machining Center

  • Lee, Seung-Woo;Han, Seung-Woo;Lee, Hu-Sang
    • International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.50-53
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    • 2007
  • Improving the reliability or long-term dependability of a system requires a different approach from the previous emphasis on short-term concerns. The purpose of this paper is to present a reliability evaluation method for an oil cooler intended for high-precision machining centers. The oil cooler system in question is a cooling device that minimizes the deformation caused from the heat generated by driving devices. This system is used for machine tools and semiconductor equipment. We predicted the reliability of the system based on the failure rate database and conducted the reliability test using a test-bed to evaluate the life of the oil cooler. The results provided an indication of the reliability of the system in terms of the failure rate and the MTBF of the oil cooler system and its components, as well as a distribution of the failure mode. These results will help increase the reliability of oil cooler systems. The evaluation method can also be used to determine the reliability of other machinery products.

An Approach to Evaluate Reliability of Electronic Ballasts for the Fluorescent Lamp (형광등용 전자식 안정기의 신뢰성 평가를 위한 접근)

  • Jeon, Tae-Bo;Jang, Mok-Soon;Park, Chong-Yeon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.333-338
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    • 2006
  • A simple but practical approach to evaluate the reliability of electronic ballasts for the low wattage fluorescent lamp has been presented in this study. We briefly reviewed the basic concepts of the electronic ballast. We then proposed a simple model and evaluated the reliability of the ballast using computer simulation.

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Sensitivity Analysis of the 217PlusTM Component Models for Reliability Prediction of Electronic Systems (전자 시스템 신뢰도 예측을 위한 217PlusTM 부품모형의 민감도 분석)

  • Jeon, Tae-Bo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.507-515
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    • 2011
  • MIL-HDBK-217 has played a pivotal role in reliability prediction of electronic equipments for more than 30 years. Recently, RIAC developed a new methodology $217Plus^{TM}$which officially replaces MIL-HDBK-217. Sensitivity analysis of the 217Plus component models to various parameters has been performed and meaningful observations have been drawn in this study. We first briefly reviewed the $217Plus^{TM}$ methodolog and compared it with the conventional model, MIL-HDBK-217. We then performed sensitivity analysis $217Plus^{TM}$ component models to various parameters. Based on the six parameters and an orthogonal array selected, we have performed indepth analyses concerning parameter effects on the model. Our result indicates that, among various parameters, operating temperature and temperature rise during operation have the most significant impacts on the life of a component, and thus a design robust to high temperature is the most importantly required. Next, year of manufacture, duty cycle, and voltage stress are weaker but may be significant when they are in heavy load conditions. Although our study is restricted to a specific type of diodes, the results are still valid to other cases. The results in this study not only figure out the behavior of the predicted failure rate as a function of parameters but provide meaningful guidelines for practical applications.

A Study on the Lifetime Prediction of Rubber Mount for Refrigerator Component (냉장고 압축기용 고무마운트 수명예측에 관한 연구)

  • Woo Chang-Su;Park Hyun-Sung
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.135-150
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    • 2006
  • Rubber material properties and lifetime evaluation are very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability of the rubber components. This paper discusses the failure mechanism and material tests were carried out to predict the useful lifetime of NBR and EPDM for compression motor, which is used in refrigerator component. The heat-aging process leads not only to mechanical properties change but also to chemical structure change so called degradation. In order to investigate the aging effects on the material properties, the accelerated test were carried out. The stress-strain curves were plotted from the results of the tensile test for virgin and heat-aged rubber specimens. The rubber specimens were heat-aged in an oven at the temperature ranging from $70^{\circ}C\;to\;100^{\circ}C$ for a period ranging from 1 to 180 days. Compression set results changes as the threshold are used for assessment of the useful life and time to threshold value were plotted against reciprocal of absolute temperature to give the Arrhenius plot. By using the compression set test, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber material were proposed.

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Hybrid Preference Prediction Technique Using Weighting based Data Reliability for Collaborative Filtering Recommendation System (협업 필터링 추천 시스템을 위한 데이터 신뢰도 기반 가중치를 이용한 하이브리드 선호도 예측 기법)

  • Lee, O-Joun;Baek, Yeong-Tae
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2014
  • Collaborative filtering recommendation creates similar item subset or similar user subset based on user preference about items and predict user preference to particular item by using them. Thus, if preference matrix has low density, reliability of recommendation will be sharply decreased. To solve these problems we suggest Hybrid Preference Prediction Technique Using Weighting based Data Reliability. Preference prediction is carried out by creating similar item subset and similar user subset and predicting user preference by each subset and merging each predictive value by weighting point applying model condition. According to this technique, we can increase accuracy of user preference prediction and implement recommendation system which can provide highly reliable recommendation when density of preference matrix is low. Efficiency of this system is verified by Mean Absolute Error. Proposed technique shows average 21.7% improvement than Hao Ji's technique when preference matrix sparsity is more than 84% through experiment.

Empirical Study on the Value Comparison Between Cosmic Radiation Measuring Instruments and Prediction Programs (항공기 탑재 우주방사선 측정장비와 예측프로그램의 비교값 실증연구)

  • Kyu-Wang Kim;Youn-Chul Choi
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.755-762
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    • 2023
  • The reliability of measuring instruments is essential in measuring cosmic radiation. To demonstrate this importance, this study measured and compared the amount of cosmic radiation using Liulin and TEPC, operated in South Korea, on a flight between Incheon, South Korea and LA, the US. In addition, since prior analysis based on a prediction program is necessary in advance to check the dose of cosmic radiation, this study utilized KREAM developed in Korea and the CARI-6M developed by the FAA to acquire the predicted value. As a result of the verification, the reliability of the two devices falls within the acceptable level of 20%, proving the reliability. Moreover, the differences between the values acquired by each prediction program were only subtle. Nevertheless, the analysis demonstrated that the prediction value obtained by the programs and the measured value had significant differences. Therefore, additional correction of the discrepancies or continuous research for such is required to match the predicted values are similar to the actual measured values.

Reliability Prediction of Electronic Arm Fire Device Applying Sensitivity Analysis (민감도 해석을 적용한 전자식 점화안전장치의 신뢰도 추정)

  • Kim, Dong-seong;Jang, Seung-gyo;Lee, Hyo-Nam;Son, Young Kap
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.393-401
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    • 2018
  • Reliability prediction of an electronic arm fire device(EAFD) was studied which is applied to prevent accidental ignition in a solid rocket motor. For predicting the reliability, the main components of the EAFD were first defined(Control unit, LEEFI, TBI) and the operating principle of each component was analyzed. Performance modeling of each part is established using selected input variables through system analysis. When complex analysis is required, we approximated it with polynomial equation using response surface method. Monte-Carlo simulation is applied to performance modeling to estimate the design reliability.

A Study on the Reliability Prediction about ECM of Packaging Substrate PCB by Using Accelerated Life Test (가속수명시험을 이용한 Packaging Substrate PCB의 ECM에 대한 신뢰성 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Dae-Joong;Lee, Hwa-Ki
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.109-120
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    • 2013
  • As information-oriented industry has been developed and electronic devices has come to be smaller, lighter, multifunctional, and high speed, the components used to the devices need to be much high density and should have find pattern due to high integration. Also, diverse reliability problems happen as user environment is getting harsher. For this reasons, establishing and securing products and components reliability comes to key factor in company's competitiveness. It makes accelerated test important to check product reliability in fast way. Out of fine pattern failure modes, failure of Electrochemical Migration(ECM) is kind of degradation of insulation resistance by electro-chemical reaction, which it comes to be accelerated by biased voltage in high temperature and high humidity environment. In this thesis, the accelerated life test for failure caused by ECM on fine pattern substrate, $20/20{\mu}m$ pattern width/space applied by Semi Additive Process, was performed, and through this test, the investigation of failure mechanism and the life-time prediction evaluation under actual user environment was implemented. The result of accelerated test has been compared and estimated with life distribution and life stress relatively by using Minitab software and its acceleration rate was also tested. Through estimated weibull distribution, B10 life has been estimated under 95% confidence level of failure data happened in each test conditions. And the life in actual usage environment has been predicted by using generalized Eyring model considering temperature and humidity by developing Arrhenius reaction rate theory, and acceleration factors by test conditions have been calculated.

Prediction Accuracy Evaluation of Domain and Domain Combination Based Prediction Methods for Protein-Protein Interaction

  • Han, Dong-Soo;Jang, Woo-Hyuk
    • Bioinformatics and Biosystems
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.128-133
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    • 2006
  • This paper compares domain combination based protein-protein interaction prediction method with domain based protein-protein interaction method. The prediction accuracy and reliability of the methods are compared using the same prediction technique and interaction data. According to the comparison, domain combination based prediction method has showed superior prediction accuracy to domain based prediction method for protein pairs with fully overlapped domains with protein pairs in learning sets. When we consider that domain combination based method has the effects of assigning a weight to each domain interaction, it implies that we can improve the prediction accuracies of currently available domain or domain combination based protein interaction prediction methods further by developing more advanced weight assignment techniques. Several significant facts revealed from the comparative studies are also described in this paper.

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