• Title/Summary/Keyword: reliability prediction

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Accuracy Assessment of the Satellite-based IMERG's Monthly Rainfall Data in the Inland Region of Korea (한반도 육상지역에서의 위성기반 IMERG 월 강수 관측 자료의 정확도 평가)

  • Ryu, Sumin;Hong, Sungwook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.533-544
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    • 2018
  • Rainfall is one of the most important meteorological variables in meteorology, agriculture, hydrology, natural disaster, construction, and architecture. Recently, satellite remote sensing is essential to the accurate detection, estimation, and prediction of rainfall. In this study, the accuracy of Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) product, a composite rainfall information based on Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite was evaluated with ground observation data in the inland of Korea. The Automatic Weather Station (AWS)-based rainfall measurement data were used for validation. The IMERG and AWS rainfall data were collocated and compared during one year from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2016. The coastal regions and islands were also evaluated irrespective of the well-known uncertainty of satellite-based rainfall data. Consequently, the IMERG data showed a high correlation (0.95) and low error statistics of Bias (15.08 mm/mon) and RMSE (30.32 mm/mon) in comparison to AWS observations. In coastal regions and islands, the IMERG data have a high correlation more than 0.7 as well as inland regions, and the reliability of IMERG data was verified as rainfall data.

Deep Learning-based Technology Valuation and Variables Estimation (딥러닝 기반의 기술가치평가와 평가변수 추정)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Kim, Min-Seung;Lee, Chan-Ho;Choi, Ji-Hye;Jang, Yong-Ju;Lee, Jeong-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.10
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    • pp.48-58
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    • 2021
  • For securing technology and business competences of companies that is the engine of domestic industrial growth, government-supported policy programs for the creation of commercialization results in various forms such as 『Technology Transaction Market Vitalization』 and 『Technology Finance-based R&D Commercialization Support』 have been carried out since 2014. So far, various studies on technology valuation theories and evaluation variables have been formalized by experts from various fields, and have been utilized in the field of technology commercialization. However, Their practicality has been questioned due to the existing constraint that valuation results are assessed lower than the expectation in the evaluation sector. Even considering that the evaluation results may differ depending on factors such as the corporate situation and investment environment, it is necessary to establish a reference infrastructure to secure the objectivity and reliability of the technology valuation results. In this study, we investigate the evaluation infrastructure built by each institution and examine whether the latest artificial neural networks and deep learning technologies are applicable for performing predictive simulation of technology values based on principal variables, and predicting sales estimates and qualitative evaluation scores in order to embed onto the technology valuation system.

RDP-based Lateral Movement Detection using PageRank and Interpretable System using SHAP (PageRank 특징을 활용한 RDP기반 내부전파경로 탐지 및 SHAP를 이용한 설명가능한 시스템)

  • Yun, Jiyoung;Kim, Dong-Wook;Shin, Gun-Yoon;Kim, Sang-Soo;Han, Myung-Mook
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2021
  • As the Internet developed, various and complex cyber attacks began to emerge. Various detection systems were used outside the network to defend against attacks, but systems and studies to detect attackers inside were remarkably rare, causing great problems because they could not detect attackers inside. To solve this problem, studies on the lateral movement detection system that tracks and detects the attacker's movements have begun to emerge. Especially, the method of using the Remote Desktop Protocol (RDP) is simple but shows very good results. Nevertheless, previous studies did not consider the effects and relationships of each logon host itself, and the features presented also provided very low results in some models. There was also a problem that the model could not explain why it predicts that way, which resulted in reliability and robustness problems of the model. To address this problem, this study proposes an interpretable RDP-based lateral movement detection system using page rank algorithm and SHAP(Shapley Additive Explanations). Using page rank algorithms and various statistical techniques, we create features that can be used in various models and we provide explanations for model prediction using SHAP. In this study, we generated features that show higher performance in most models than previous studies and explained them using SHAP.

Comparative Evaluation of Radioactive Isotope in Concrete by Heavy Ion Particle using Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 통한 중하전입자의 콘크리트 방사화 비교평가)

  • Bae, Sang-Il;Cho, Yong-In;Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.359-365
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    • 2021
  • A heavy particle accelerator is a device that accelerates particles using high energy and is used in various fields such as medical and industrial fields as well as research. However, secondary neutrons and particle fragments are generated by the high-energy particle beam, and among them, the neutrons do not have an electric charge and directly interact with the nucleus to cause radiation of the material. Quantitative evaluation of the radioactive material produced in this way is necessary, but there are many difficulties in actual measurement during or after operation. Therefore, this study compared and evaluated the generated radioactive material in the concrete shield for protons and carbon ions of specific energy by using the simulation code FLUKA. For the evaluation of each energy of proton beam and carbon ion, the reliability of the source term was secured within 2% of the relative error with the data of the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory(NSRL), which is an internationally standardized data. In the evaluation, carbon ions exhibited higher neutron flux than protons. Afterwards, in the evaluation of radioactive materials under actual operating conditions for disposal, a large amount of short-lived beta-decay nuclides occurred immediately after the operation was terminated, and in the case of protons with a high beam speed, more radioactive products were generated than carbon ions. At this time, radionuclides of 44Sc, 3H and 22Na were observed at a high rate. In addition, as the cooling time elapsed, the ratio of long-lived nuclides increased. For nonparticulate radionuclides, 3H, 22Na, and for particulate radionuclides, 44Ti, 55Fe, 60Co, 152Eu, and 154Eu nuclides showed a high ratio. In this study, it is judged that it is possible to use the particle accelerator as basic data for facility maintenance, repair and dismantling through the prediction of radioactive materials in concrete according to the cooling time after operation and termination of operation.

A Study on Misdiagnosis Rates of Ejection Fraction Associated with Cardiac Computed Tomography: Suggestions and Correction for Improvement (심장 전산화단층촬영을 이용한 박출계수 산출 시 박출계수의 보정을 통한 오진율 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Na, Sa-Ra;Jeong, Mi-Ae
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.437-444
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    • 2021
  • The aim of this study was to compare the cardiac CT and cardiac MRI in calculating and correcting the left ventricle ejection fraction by analyzing the physical and temporal resolution for reducing the misdiagnosis rate. One hundred thirty-eight patients with aortic value regurgitation who underwent both cardiac CT and cardiac MRI were analyzed. Left ventricle ejection fractions calculated from each exam were corrected based on the physical and temporal resolution differences and the reliability test evaluated whether the misdiagnosis rate of cardiac CT was improved after the correction. As a result of the study, the misdiagnosis rate of cardiac CT ejection fraction before correcting the difference in physical and temporal resolution was 38.4%(53 persons). In addition, it can be seen that the corrected cardiac CT ejection fraction confirmed in the Bland-Altman plot was highly consistent with the ejection fraction of cardiac MRI. In conclusion, as the cardiac CT is less well suited for measuring ejection fraction, physical characteristics and the time resolution correction using cardiac MRI is needed and the misdiagnosis rate after correction decreased to 14.5%(20 persons). Therefore, this study appears more appropriate for better prediction of ejection fraction and clinical utility.

Scenario-based Vulnerability Assessment of Hydroelectric Power Plant (시나리오 기반 수력플랜트 설비의 취약성 평가)

  • Nam, Myeong Jun;Lee, Jae Young;Jung, Woo Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.9-21
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    • 2021
  • Recently, the importance of eco-friendly power generation facility using renewable energy has newly appeared. Hydropower plant is a very important source of electricity generation and supply which is very important to secure safety because it is commonly connected with multi facility and operated on a large scale. In this study, a scenario-based analysis method was suggested to assess vulnerability of a penstock system caused by water hammer commonly occurred in the operation of hydropower plants. A hypothetical hydropower plant was used to demonstrate the applicability of a transient analysis model. In order to verify reliability of the model, the prediction of pressure behaviors were compared with the results of commercial model (SIMSEN) and measured data, then a real hydroelectric power plant was applied to develop all potential water hammer scenarios during the actual operation. The scenario-based simulation and vulnerability assessment for water hammer in the penstock system were performed with internal and external load conditions. The simulation results indicated that the vulnerability of a penstock system was varied with the operating conditions of hydropower facilities and significantly affected by load combination consisting of different load scenarios. The proposed numerical method could be an useful tool for the vulnerabilityty assessment of the hydropower plants due to water hammer.

Prediction of Hydrodynamic Behavior of Unsaturated Ground Due to Hydrogen Gas Leakage in a Low-depth Underground Hydrogen Storage Facility (저심도 지중 수소저장시설에서의 수소가스 누출에 따른 불포화 지반의 수리-역학적 거동 예측 연구)

  • Go, Gyu-Hyun;Jeon, Jun-Seo;Kim, YoungSeok;Kim, Hee Won;Choi, Hyun-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.38 no.11
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2022
  • The social need for stable hydrogen storage technologies that respond to the increasing demand for hydrogen energy is increasing. Among them, underground hydrogen storage is recognized as the most economical and reasonable storage method because of its vast hydrogen storage capacity. In Korea, low-depth hydrogen storage using artificial protective structures is being considered. Further, establishing corresponding safety standards and ground stability evaluation is becoming essential. This study evaluated the hydro-mechanical behavior of the ground during a hydrogen gas leak from a low-depth underground hydrogen storage facility through the HM coupled analysis model. The predictive reliability of the simulation model was verified through benchmark experiments. A parameter study was performed using a metamodel to analyze the sensitivity of factors affecting the surface uplift caused by the upward infiltration of high-pressure hydrogen gas. Accordingly, it was confirmed that the elastic modulus of the ground was the largest. The simulation results are considered to be valuable primary data for evaluating the complex analysis of hydrogen gas explosions as well as hydrogen gas leaks in the future.

Building plan research of Smart Ammunition Logistics System based on the 4th industrial technology (4차산업혁명기술 기반 스마트 탄약물류체계 구축 방안 연구)

  • Choi, Jong-Geun;Kim, Byung-Kyoo;Chang, Yoon Seok
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.135-145
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    • 2022
  • This paper presented a method to build a predictable smart ammunition logistics system using the 4th industrial technology for ammunition logistics, which is the core functions in the field of defense and logistics. We have analyzed the current level of ammunition logistics with various perspectives such as domestic and overseas logistics policies, technology trends, ammunition logistics characteristics, the smart logistics certification measures by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. As a result it is considered that the current ammunition logistics needs needs improvement. To improve this, we presented a direction based on the implications derived after analyzing various ongoing programs such as wired/wireless-based automation, smart ammunition depots, and logistics innovation of the army, navy, and air force that can be applied to the ammunition logistics. In order to implement a data-based smart ammunition logistics management system that can achieve innovation and efficiency of total life cycle while meeting changes in the battlefield environment, we presented 4 objectives such as "automation and modernization of field work", "3D-based storage management & improvement of issuing at war," and "data management for prediction-oriented ammunition management". it is expected that there will be benefits such as improvement of operational continuity, guarantee of ammunition reliability, budget reduction, improvement of inefficiencies such as delay, waiting, and double work, and reduction of accidents.

Analysis of the Distribution and Diversity of the Microbial Community in Kimchi Samples from Central and Southern Regions in Korea Using Next-generation Sequencing (차세대 염기서열 분석법을 이용한 우리나라 중부지방과 남부지방의 김치 미생물 군집의 분포 및 다양성 분석)

  • Yunjeong Noh;Gwangsu Ha;Jinwon Kim;Soo-Young Lee;Do-Youn Jeong;Hee-Jong Yang
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.25-33
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    • 2023
  • The fermentation process of kimchi, which is a traditional Korean food, influences the resulting compo- sition of microorganisms, such as the genera Leuconostoc, Weissella, and Lactobacillus. In addition, several factors, including the type of kimchi, fermentation conditions, materials, and ingredients, can influence the distribution of the kimchi microbial community. In this study, next-generation sequencing (NGS) of kimchi samples obtained from central (Gangwon-do and Gyeonggi-do) and southern (Jeolla-do and Gyeongsang-do) regions in Korea was performed, and the microbial communities in samples from the two regions were compared. Good's coverage prediction for all samples was higher than 99%, indicating that there was sufficient reliability for comparative analysis. However, in a α -diversity analysis, there was no significant difference in species richness and diversity between samples. The Firmicutes phylum was common in both regions. At the species level, Weissella kandleri dominated in central (46.5%) and southern (30.8%) regions. Linear discriminant analysis effect size (LEfSe) analysis was performed to identify biomarkers representing the microbial community in each region. The LEfSe results pointed to statistically significant differences between the two regions in community composition, with Leuconostocaceae (71.4%) dominating in the central region and Lactobacillaceae (61.0%) dominating in the southern region. Based on these results, it can be concluded that the microbial communities of kimchi are significantly influenced by regional properties and that it can provide more useful scientific data to study the relationship between regional characteristics of kimchi and their microbial distribution.

Multidimensional data generation of water distribution systems using adversarially trained autoencoder (적대적 학습 기반 오토인코더(ATAE)를 이용한 다차원 상수도관망 데이터 생성)

  • Kim, Sehyeong;Jun, Sanghoon;Jung, Donghwi
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.7
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    • pp.439-449
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    • 2023
  • Recent advancements in data measuring technology have facilitated the installation of various sensors, such as pressure meters and flow meters, to effectively assess the real-time conditions of water distribution systems (WDSs). However, as cities expand extensively, the factors that impact the reliability of measurements have become increasingly diverse. In particular, demand data, one of the most significant hydraulic variable in WDS, is challenging to be measured directly and is prone to missing values, making the development of accurate data generation models more important. Therefore, this paper proposes an adversarially trained autoencoder (ATAE) model based on generative deep learning techniques to accurately estimate demand data in WDSs. The proposed model utilizes two neural networks: a generative network and a discriminative network. The generative network generates demand data using the information provided from the measured pressure data, while the discriminative network evaluates the generated demand outputs and provides feedback to the generator to learn the distinctive features of the data. To validate its performance, the ATAE model is applied to a real distribution system in Austin, Texas, USA. The study analyzes the impact of data uncertainty by calculating the accuracy of ATAE's prediction results for varying levels of uncertainty in the demand and the pressure time series data. Additionally, the model's performance is evaluated by comparing the results for different data collection periods (low, average, and high demand hours) to assess its ability to generate demand data based on water consumption levels.